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NelsonCruuuuuz

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Posts posted by NelsonCruuuuuz

    What constitutes a good draft? My study of 1998-2005

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Frobby said:

    Over in the Draft forum, 7Mo asked a few weeks ago what was the median value of a team draft.   I took a guess that it was in the 20-25 rWAR range, but the topic has been eating at me, so I decided to take a close look.

    For my study, I used 1998 - 2005.  I used 1998 because that was the first year that the major leagues had 30 teams, and I stopped at 2005 because I figured as I got further beyond that, more and more players would still be active and accruing more WAR.   And so, I looked at every draft of every team for those 8 years, a total of 240 team drafts.   In summary, here is what I found.

    1.  The mean average team draft produced 23.2 rWAR.   However, the median team draft produced only 14.5 rWAR.   That's because the good drafts can go way beyond 30 WAR but the bad ones can't really get much below 0 WAR.   

    2.  The mean average total value over the 8 year period was 185.3 rWAR, whereas the median was 183.3.   Those two measures line up over a larger sample size.

    3.  The frequency of various WAR ranges for a draft looks like this:

    < 0: 10.8% (26/240)

    0 - 4.9: 16.7 % (40/240)

    5 - 9.9: 11.7% (28/240)

    10 - 14.9: 11.3% (27/240)

    15 - 19.9: 5.8% (14/240)

    20 - 24.9: 6.7% (16/240)

    25 - 29.9: 4.6% (11/240)

    30 - 39.9: 8.8% (21/240)

    40 - 49.9 10.0% (24/240)

    50+: 13.8% (33/240)

    So, bottom line, if your team wants to produce an above average pipeline, you'd better not have too many drafts that produce below 14.5 rWAR, you'll need to average better than 23.2 rWAR per draft, and you'll need to spring a 50+ rWAR draft once every 7-8 years or better.   

    Here are a few qualifiers:

    1.   This was a study of 1998-2005.   The draft rules have changed a number of times since then and that may have affected how rWAR is distributed.   However, I tend to doubt it has had significant affect.   

    2.  Needless to say, draft order affects how well a team drafts, on average.

    3.  The numbers I used were career WAR for players a team drafted and signed.   I did not factor in how much of that WAR was earned while the player was with the drafting team (which would have been incredibly time consuming to do), or while the player theoretically was under team control (ditto).   I didn't give teams credit for players they drafted but didn't sign.   I didn't factor in whether a team had lost or gained picks under the various rules about FA compensation, etc.   I can say that there were many good players drafted and signed who earned most or all of their WAR with teams other than the one that signed them.   

    4.  Not all drafts are equal.   The best drafts I looked at (1998 and 2001) produced about 50% more total WAR than the worst ones (2000 and 2002).   So obviously, what constitutes a good draft for a team can vary according to the talent level available in that draft.

    Anyway, I hope folks will find this a useful yardstick when we evaluate Orioles drafts past and future.   Of course, it takes a long time for all the results of a draft to come in.   

    In my next post I will post a spreadsheet of all the team results over the 8 year period.   It goes without saying that it's not pretty for the Orioles during that time period.

    This is amazing Frobby!!!! Thank you!!!

    I’m about ready to give up on DJ Stewart

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    12 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

    To be fair, we picked 25th (out of 26 teams) in the first round of the 2015 draft, and there weren’t a whole lot of quality players taken subsequent to that. It wasn’t like picking Hobgood over Mike Trout in 2009. 

    Agree 100% but when in doubt and no clear prospect, I would always go pitching. Elias is gun shy on that front (and of course he didn't pick Stewart).

    Valaika DFA. Mateo replaces him

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

    I think Tony goes a little overboard with the criticism of not finding good players off the scrap heap.  Those guys are few and far between.

    That being said, I think the overall point is spot on.  Elias has done nothing to help the ML Team as of yet.  None of the trades he made has impacted the ML team.  The FA signings have done nothing to very little to help.  
     

    The trades he has made for MiL players seem to have been good ones and have helped boost the ratings of the farm system but so what?  Everyone gets so excited about the farm system rankings but really, at the end of the day, BFD.  From 2009-2012, BA ranked our farm system 8,9, 21, 21.  And those early rankings were thanks to players like Matusz who did very little in the majors.  Those are hardly spectacular numbers and yet, the team won.  Why?  Because they hit on some cheaper ML talent and did well on some trades.  
     

    So far, Elias is the opposite and while building the system is obviously important and a good sign for the future (and don’t forget a lot of these guys were already here and Adley was delivered to him on a silver platter), it means nothing right now.  
     

    Elias wasn’t the GM is Houston.  He wasn’t the final decision maker.  I say that because people act like he was.  They talk about the Houston success but remember he had a lot of help and Houston did a lot on the ML level, especially with their pitching staff, that vaulted them to a title.  Elias had very little to do with that.  
     

    In other words, Elias has done a great job of being a “minor league GM” but he has proven nothing in terms of being a major league GM.  This offseason is the time to really start judging him.  I can give him a pass for the first year since he started late.  I think he should have done more for 2020 but circumstances made it harder.  There are no excuses for this offseason.  I don’t want to hear about the CBA either.   It’s time to start making real moves and showing us that you can build a winning team because right now, winning in the minors is all he has shown us he can do.

    Great post!

    Is there an August Trade Deadline?

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted · Edited by NelsonCruuuuuz

    2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

    Yeah, they’re really enhancing their value here.   

    What an awful game. I was enjoying some r&r and enjoyed watching Mullings, Martin & Mateo and then that inning happened…just unwatchable. 

    Your 2022 FA Wish List

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

    Sherzer makes the most sense to me. Promote the position prospects quickly. Add GRod, Baumann, Hall and one FA reliever of consequence. 

    ???Scherzer ain’t coming here. He prefers west coast and an org that can win. There are greater odds we both win the lotto.

    Valaika DFA. Mateo replaces him

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

    They are in the Atlantic League now,  Previously they were in the South Atlantic League, and were most recently affiliated with the Mariners.  

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_Power

     

    There was actually 3-4 ex Orioles players in the game I went to including Paredes, though some had only been in our minor leagues.

    It looks like he was released and now playing in the Mexican league (Paredes).

    Valaika DFA. Mateo replaces him

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    8 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

    So the Giants got lucky and Elias isn't at fault. Got it. Must be why the Giants compete year and year out and the Orioles have become an embarrassment at the major league level now. 

    Spot on. Best post I have read in a long time.

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