ThisIsBirdland

Hicks to the Blue Jays

Interesting comment from good ol Buster Olney on twitter this morning. He claims multiple GMs are saying that there may end up being more rental SPs than buyers actually.

Forgot about Civale. I guess there’s a scenario where we could bring in one of the mariners or marlins young, controllable guys too, but that seems too unlikely to seriously entertain. Still, for all we hear about it being a sellers market, seems like there are a handful of options worth pursuing.

Yeah it'll be disappointing if they don't come through on Montgomery or ERod. Even Lorenzen for a cheap price would be helpful. Snell isn't going anywhere and I don't see them being players for Verlander. Stroman probably not available either. Outside of those six I don't think there's anyone else I want to see them go after.

In terms of reliever deals, the trade seems to compare favorably for us next to the haul the O's got for Jorge Lopez, but maybe a deal for Aroldis Chapman would have made more sense given he has more of a track record and the Rangers also didn't seem to part with significant pieces (someone correct me if I'm wrong there). With that said, I'm definitely excited the more I read about Fuji. Glad they pulled it off, and I don't think this precludes them from still pursuing another strong RP in the next couple weeks.

Wells has also exceeded expectations, Bradish has hit the upper end of his expectations curve, and Kremer/Gibson are right in line with what was expected and needed from a #4/#5. Nothing has really changed from the off-season when we thought we needed a true #1 to be a complete team. Counting on GRod to come in as a rookie and do that just wasn't realistic.

I also think that the trade options will open up significantly in the off-season. It would be pretty much unthinkable to move Hayes (2.5 years until FA) or Santander (1.5 years until FA) in the current playoff push, but very possible in the off-season. I imagine Elias would prefer to move those pieces for a long-term answer at SP as opposed to the cost-controlled guys tearing up AAA.

Definitely agree on the longevity. 6 IP max pretty much per game, but he has stabilized in June (2.20 ERA, 42/10 K/BB). I'd be excited if the right deal brought him here, but anything more than a combination from that second tier would feel like too much.

Given who we hear may be available, I'd be disappointed if we move any of Holliday/Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg/Mayo/GRod. I'd much prefer making a real effort in FA this offseason. 2.5 seasons of Cease (and/or 1.5 seasons of Burnes if he were somehow available) would cost too much from this group to justify IMO. If it's a prospect or combination from the Norby/Ortiz/Hall tier and they decide that Eduardo Rodriguez or Jordan Montgomery is worth it, I'd be excited to see them in the Cole Irvin slot for the rest of the way. Same with a legit middle inning reliever. Rodriguez/Montgomery, Bradish and Wells/Gibson (if Wells wears down by October) could be competitive over a few playoff series' with a deep bullpen behind them.

If Gibson and Frazier end up being good enough to be traded for legitimate pitching prospects while the front office wouldn't view losing them as jeopardizing a playoff push, that'd be a pretty fine line to tread. But it would be absolutely hilarious given the meltdown their signings caused this off-season.

And I'm sure if the O's do reach any early extensions with their top guys, it'll need to be similarly structured. It's not worth it for these young superstars otherwise. But for us as fans to see the extra 3-5 years of security is huge to buy in on the direction of the team. And for owners, they're only commiting an additional 2-3 years, not the 10+ year contracts these guys can now make on the open market. Seems like a win for all parties involved all the way around.

I think that's definitely the case. Kjerstad, Ortiz, Westburg, Cowser, Holiday, Mayo, Norby are all more interesting and exciting than half the position players expected to make the team this year. Expecting to see all of them get a shot between now and the end of 24, even Holiday.

We've got Kjerstad hitting a couple bombs, Holiday doubling in his first AB, Vavra going yard and doubling, Cowser drawing a couple walks and runs. Plenty of happy talk already for Day 1

Can't wait to see Adam Frazier put up his 2021 first half .836 OPS all season!

He's making a factual point about how financially difficult it would have been to be reliant on ticket sales during the COVID impacted seasons, as opposed to having them fall during a low-cost rebuild. Saying anything that occured with regards to COVID was "lucky", especially regarding the financial well being of the organization he owns, can be viewed as pretty insensitive given the far more significant impacts of COVID. With that said, people going nuts about stuff like this are why we don't get decent access to people like Angelos, or why we get tight, political responses when we do get any media availability.

Ok, the devil you know may be better than the devil you don't, but for me to feel this way, a lot of conditions would have to be met over the next few years: 1. Long-term lease extension 2. Total deferral to the baseball operations personnel 3. Increasing payroll to at least get back to top 10-20 range, as they were right up until the latest rebuild 4. Retaining Elias/Hyde unless the team performance warrants a change 5. Retaining key core players. I don't mind trading some late contract players for prospects, but not core players like Adley

Yeah, more of the same positive generalities without the specifics: - O's will stay in Baltimore/lease will hopefully be done by all-star break - Hyde/Elias here long-term, but no details - Finances will be shared with media, but in general terms - Ownership Group won't change in near-term, he wants family to see rebuild through - Payroll will increase but O's are in a market tier with Tampa/Cleveland/Milwaukee

Sounds like John Angelos just wrapped a media session wherein he claims he/his family won't be selling majority control anytime soon. Looking forward to how well that's received here...

Agreed. Missing Bautista/Tate at all is problematic, but relying on a back end of Wells/Givens/Perez/Baker for a month or so won't necessarily be a major setback. Any additional losses for consequential periods of time will really begin to take a toll though I imagine.

Maybe a dumb question but what's the point of giving someone an extension that only covers arbitration covered years? Don't teams typically want to buy out potential free agency years on these extensions?

I imagine they're viewing 2025-2030 as a long enough window to build towards for now. The park was just too RH friendly before the change. With bringing in so many LHBs, might as well try to give a small boost to their value and give free agent pitchers a better chance to put up solid numbers. Others have commented on how it let our pitchers throw a bit more aggressively last year. If this ultimately results in a few more wins a year, I think it's worth it.

Yup all fair. Let's assume 70% of pitchers they face will be RHP. Majority of quality batters throughout the league are RH as well (+/-75%?) As I said in the earlier posts, I just assume the fixation with consistently placing high draft capital into LHBs was possibly tied to the RF wall dimension changes. I think the Os are hoping that if their draft strategy works out, their lineup for 2025-2030 is built around Adley, Gunnar, Holliday, Cowser, Kjerstad, and Mullins, with Beavers and Stowers in the system too.

So a lineup with 6+ regular LHBs won't have a higher competitive advantage in a park with a high/deep RF wall versus a lineup with 6+ RH batters? I'm not saying it's a massive game changer but over the course of a season I think it could have an effect.

Yeah I actually shouldn't have said all the time, I honestly don't know and was basing it on recent examples. And I'm definitely not going to take time looking it up lol. I don't think it's an and/or with the pitching necessarily either. They know they need pitching of course. I think their emphasis thus far has been about adding value safely in every move, and the safest way to do that was to draft bats over pitchers. Once they have surplus value in the bats, then they can trade from a position of strength. That's starting to play out now and I expect it will continue. With the park dimensions, I imagine they think it'll help the veteran FA market and their future heavy LH lineup. Admittedly that veteran market was for guys on 1 year deals like Gibson, and I agree that shouldn't be their only approach to bringing in pitching. But im conjunction with the trade potential of their bats, I think they'll find ways to add young quality SPs. I also think picking in the mid (to hopefully late) first round may influence their risk analysis on pitchers too. Missing at the beginning of a rebuild on a top 5 pick is a lot more damaging than missing on a mid-late first round pitcher once the minor league system is developed.

Pretty sure there's more to consider than just the initial media coverage. I've vented more than enough against this in other threads though so I'll leave it at that