Tony-OH

Yeah, the stuff was well below average and he had a hard time staying healthy. Seemed like whoever selected the players in that trade really did not do a good assessment.

You and Sports Guy keep saying "Blake Snell" type, but the two years he's been an effective starting pitcher over an entire season, both times he pitched 180 innings and was not a 3 or 4 inning opener. This 3-4 inning opener stuff is garbage because teams can't build effective bullpens to cover the innings load that kind of pitcher creates. Feel free to hold out hope for Hall because the Giants, who are paying Hicks like a reliever, supposedly want to give him a shot as a starter. I will say this, if he or the Giants really felt like he was a starter, he wouldn't have signed for $11 mil year for 4 years. He knows he's a reliever.

Maybe with McDermott and Povich both scheduled to be pitching at Norfolk, they feel he's a better fit there then with assisting big leaguers?

Feel free to live in the fantasy land where Hall is a consistent starter who is not blowing up the bullpen because he's at 90 pitches in the 4th inning more times than not. If you think that makes him a TOR, feel free to your opinion. At 22-years old Blake Snell pitched 134 innings and put up a combined 1.41 ERA with a 163-53 K-Bb ratio. By the time he was going into his 25-year old season, he had already started 43 games and pitched in 218 innings at the major league level, but not surprisingly, had only won 11 of his 43 games while pitching to a 3.83 ERA. In five full professional season, Hall has pitched a grand total of 386.1 innings for a whopping average of 77.3 innings a season. They are not even close to being the same. BTW, Snell actually did pitch 180 innings at 25-years old in his breakout season, but had over 500 minor league innings and the 218 major leaue starter innings when that happened. Hall is no Blake Snell, but he very well could be another Billy Wagner if they let him be his best role at the major league level.

Pitches per inning is way better to us than walks per 9. But it don't matter at this point. All the data is out there and everything that can be said has been said by both sides. I've said my piece. Backed it up with stats. You guys have your right to have any opinion that you like.

That trade was made to save money and make the team worse so it it could get a high draft pick. I have to believe that because if not, then we have to ask who made the assessments of the players received in return? Velez is a soft tossing minor league lefty who looks like he will never get out of AA, Guerrero was a lottery ticket who looks like a slow twitch guy with a long swing, and Yaqui Ramirez is a little right-hander who can only pitch in relief and although he's had success at a young age, the stuff doesn't jump out at you as a major league prospect. Scott would have been nice in the pen last year for sure, but maybe they don't go out and get Coulombe if he was here? Coulombe was pretty darn good last yea and Perez was able to settle in and become a ground ball machine from the left-side. When you add in Hall, the Orioles have some nice left-handed options in the pen. i just wish they would have gotten a better return for Scott and Sulser to a lesser extent.

Wells will definitely get a shot at the 5th starter long before Hall, as he should. If the Orioles don't make any additions to the starting rotation, both he and Irvin with get shots at the 5th starter.

Hall does not have the upside of a TOR because of all the reasons that I've stated. Just because a guy has the stuff to be one does not mean he has the other attributes. You can't just say his past doesn't matter, it does. He's proven to you who he is at this point. Smart organizations that are contending don't play games and put guys where they have the best chance of success. This isn't 2021 anymore. The Orioles are contenders and Hall is a big part of their bullpen. There is a downside to trying him again as a starter as well. He should be planning and prepared this spring for being a 60 appearance reliever, not as a starter. He should pitch an inning every few days to get in shape and ready, not pitching every five to six days and trying to go multiple innings. The ship has sailed on Hall being an effective starter. He's never shown the ability to go deep into games and even as a reliever his pitch counts got high on occasion as well. It took him 371 pitches to go 19.1 innings (19.2 pitches per inning) last year as a reliever at the major league level. That's on par for what's always been. That's way too many for a starter unless you are ok with 4-5 innings starts every five starts.

The Orioles would be dumb to start the clock on a kid who has a lot more develop to do physically and defensively when they already have solid choices that are more major league ready on their 40-man roster. I also think "executives" give about two seconds of thoughts into polls about players on other teams so that holds no weight. It's fine that people think it's up in the air, and I heard with Elias said, but i also heard what Blood said and that makes a lot more sense. Personally I think Elias said what he said about Holliday was to show teams that Westburg and Ortiz are definitely available. Elias is a smart guy who is very media savvy. he has no reason to pump up Holliday to potentially start 2024 with the Orioles unless theirs an ulterior motive. Now, he's been quiet on Mayo and we've heard rumblings from Roch that the team may want to give him a look in RF, which makes sense. Now, what happens with Ortiz and Westburg over the next 5-6 weeks is what really could affect this entire situation. I could be wrong, as it won't be the first time, but I just don't see Holliday jumping Mayo on the promotion pecking order unless there is a whole at 2B that needs a filling. I think Urias plays 2B over Holliday just because I don't see them starting his clock at 20-years old unless he shows up and looks like the best player on the field. I think if the Orioles can get two years between when they'll need to pay Gunnar and Holliday, they'd prefer that. Sure, the needs of the team because of injuries could change all that, but I would be surprised if Holliday is promoted before Mayo.

You have the no brain part right, but that's anyone who still thinks DL Hall should start! It's never been about stuff with Hall, it's about the amount of pitches it takes him to get outs, his health, and the fact he's 25 years old and has never pitched more than 94.1 innings in any professional season. HE IS A RELEIVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I do find it a little ironic that you tend to dismiss Wells over him not be able to get through a season as a starter (which I agree with) but you think it's a "no-brainer" that a 25-year old guy who has never thrown more than 94.1 innings (and he did that in 2018 in Low-A ball) should be the 5th starter. No offense, but that makes zero sense. Not to mention you degrade the bullpen by taking a left-handed impact reliever out of the mix.

No way Holliday keeps Mayo in AAA. Mayo is way closer to being ready than Holliday at this stage in their careers. Holliday will be on the Gunnar plan. You either have an unrealistically poor opinion of Mayo or don't understand where these two players are in their development to think Mayo is not coming until 31 August because Holliday is going to be starting at 2B. I will be totally and utterly shocked if Holliday is starting at 2B on opening day or even before June. I think the Orioles want to get him as many reps as possible at shortstop and that will be done in AAA.

But DH can't be clogged up because Adley needs that a good amount of time when he's not catching. I still prefer to see if he can play RF before sticking him at 1B. 1B is a waste of a special arm and he runs well enough at this point that he should cover enough ground in RF in Camden Yards. I do think long term he won't be at 3B, but my entire point is that he'd be fine there for now. If Ortiz is still here, than I think he goes back to AAA and plays a mix of RF/3B/1B. If Ortiz makes the team, I think he ends up the everyday SS as he's the best defensive SS in the org while Gunnar is the best defensive 3B in the org.

I think a lot of scouts/analysts got Westburg's defense wrong, mostly because arm strength is a bit overrated. When you look at arm strength numbers in baseball savant, you will see a decent amount of players with low arm strength numbers that have average or above average OAA numbers. There is so much that goes into whether a fielder executes a play. I would say that he first has to position himself, but now that is taken care of by the little card that is prepared for him for each batter. So let's forget positioning for now and assume that is not player dependent anymore. Let's just look at what happens once the ball comes off the bat. First, he has to identify the speed, direction and spin of a ball hit in his direction. This where a fielder's first step quickness comes into play. Secondly, he has to get to the ball in an effective manner. This means judging the hops if he has time, and then getting himself in a position to field the ball in a manner that allows him to get his feet set quickly for a throw. Next, he has to have the hands to get his glove on the ball accurately by ensuring the ball goes into the webbing of the glove. Once the ball is in the web it's now a process of setting his feet while conducting the exchange of the ball from the glove to his throwing hand. Now here's one of the things that is not judged by any metrics that I've seen but is as important or maybe even more important than pure arm strength. It's the point where the fielder is now preparing to throw the ball by moving his arm into a throwing position. That arm path can be significantly different for each player. Players with short arm paths, in conjunction with a quick exchange, have a quick release. This is how players like Cory Seager, Xander Boegarts and especially Dansby Swanson all have above average OAA despite well below average arm strength. With that all in mind, I think that happened with Westburg a bit. Visually, a scout can see arm strength during throws, as well as all the other things mentioned above, but I do think arm strength is the easiest to determine. What happens is a guy will get pegged as having a below average arm and get pigeon holed to 2B. Last year, Westburg actually was better at 3B than 2B according to OAA and FRV despite him having a below average major league infield arm. Westburg has always moved well because he's athletic, but he's 6-2, 210 so I think scouts/analysts see him as going to lose some of that quickness so they pegged him as a below average defender. My biggest issue with his defense is that he's always struggled throwing moving away from where he need to throw and his hands we're slightly below average for me. But after watching him a lot last year with the Orioles, I didn't see any reason he can't be an average defender at 2B or 3B.

For some reason, despite the many scouting reports, including mine, that discuss his improvements defensively as well as his known outstanding work ethic, there are group of posters on her who have this feeling his awful at 3B. It's like it's 1980 again and their only information is his poor fielding percentage. At the end of the day, he has an impact bat and if Ortiz is traded, Gunnar needs to be the everyday SS. If Westburg is back at 2B, that leaves Urias and Mayo as the 3B options. Now those same people will most likely laud Urias for his defense while not realizing he was one of the worse defensive 3B last year according to OAA and Fielding Run Value. So is the Orioles defense better with Gunnar at 3B instead of Mayo, sure. Is Mayo behind Gunnar, Westburg and probably Ortiz defensively at 3B, most likely. Does he have the most impactful bat among all of them besides Gunnar, absolutely. Is Mayo the longterm answer at 3B defensively, probably not because I think as he grows into his mid to late 20s he will slow down due to his size. Does it make some sense to see if he can play RF effectively? Sure. So there a lot of possibilities, but dismissing Mayo at 3B by saying he can't play there is wrong in my opinion.

I think you are giving Hyde too much credit for his lineup choices and who he plays. I'm pretty sure he's given his lineup each day like the managers in the minor leagues are. Now he's mentioned that it's a joint effort with the trainers and the sigbot guys, but I don't think he has the authority to just bury a guy like Stowers and Ortiz were when they were on the roster.

Are you being serious Clark? Do we really have bring up the demise rates of average 30-somethings with a slow player's game skills? O'Hearn skills wise is a left-handed hitting Trey Mancini with less bat. Even if you aren't concerned over his turning 30, are you concerned that his .312/.361/.532/.893 slashline to start the year (155 PAs thru 7/14) was at least partially driven by an unsustainable .370 BABIP? O'Hearn was a nice story, but he turned back into a little better version o the pumpkin he was before coming to the Orioles. He should have no role on this team. Santander can play 1B better than O'Hearn and Adley was pretty good in the minors. Kjerstad belongs on this opening day roster and that will be tough to do if O'Hearn is taking up a roster spot. I'm hoping he can be traded for value but I get a feel he's going to end up DFA'd at some point or traded for a low level minor leaguer. Maybe the A's will give up somebody for him?

O'Hearn's downward production as the season went on and his age are two things that I have concerns about. He as a nice story, but no way the Orioles should be going into 2024 expecting him to repeat his 1st half numbers over an entire season. In 2022 with the Royals, he under performed his xWOBA (.330) with his wOBA (.272) by .048 points making him a nice potential breakout candidate. In 2023, he outperformed his xWOBA (.324) with his wOBA (.339) by .015 points suggesting more regression could be at hand in 2024 when he'll play at 30-years old. All I know is that he slashed .273/.293/.444/.736 from July 15th to the end of the season with a 46K to 5 BB ratio over 213 PAs. And that was with a high BABIP of .320. Right now, it's either him of Kjerstad on the team in the backup/in-the-mix RF/DH/1B role. I'm taking Kjerstad.

I like to look at how hitter's hit against a pitch before assigning grades at the major league level. Using xWOBA, which is the expected weighted on base percentage (.320 MLB average overall), his .240 xWOBA against his fastball is pretty elite. Now, is it HoF level (80 grade), I'm not sure, but it probably is at least a 70 grade pitch despite "only" average 95.6 MPH last year due to the reasonings in the tweet. That .241 XWOBA was 21st in baseball for 4-seamers with 10 or more PAs. So very good, but I'm not sure I'd call it HoF level (80-grade).

I think this is the key point that some here are missing. I have never argued that Mayo is the best defensive option at 3B amongst current candidates, and yes, Gunnar is the best combo option at 3B, but I've seen people just be dismissive of Mayo at 3B at all. Now I understand and agree with those who say there are better defensive options at 3B, and Mayo very well may be a better long term fit in RF or 1B (though I think Basallo will be a lot there to save his bat), but if Ortiz is moved this offseason (and that's a big IF still), then Gunnar is my everyday SS and I'd rather see Mayo at 3B than Urias (assuming Westburg is still here and at 2B). I lot depends on who is still here come spring training. I will say IF Ortiz is still here and wins the SS job, moving Gunnar to 3B, then i think they send Mayo back to AAA. If they do that, I'd like to see him get a healthy amount of starts in RF.

This is the Adam Frazier post for this offseason!

I think a lot of this depends on the role they eventually see him in performing at the major league level. If they want to develop him as a starter, than there are different set of criteria to getting promoted than a guy who's role will be in relief. Relief is always the quicker option and for an older prospect who is burning through options, this might be the last year for him to prove he can start. I do think the Orioles will be fairly aggressive with him if he does well to start the year in AA (expected start). With more mature hitters in AAA who chase less, it's the level where pitchers need to really hone their command and repertoires so they may rather he get more innings there than AA. It really just depends on whether he's handling AA hitters.

I get this feeling that Kjerstad is going to be traded. I might be wrong, but it would not surprise me. I think by 25-26 Mayo may be in RF but let's just keep him at 3B for now and go with inhouse candidates. LF: Cowser but don't sleep in Beavers slipping in here or even Horvath. Norby is a dark horse if not traded. CF: Bradfield is the obvious choice here but his stick needs to show it will handle upper level pitching. RF: Kjerstad for now, Mayo is a possibility. Like with LF, Horvath and Beavers could be options.

Looks like depth middle infield guy for Norfolk or maybe even Bowie depending on need. Guess he must really love the game to hold on this long so he's probably a good veteran clubhouse guy.

This may actually be the most "Just Regular" Just Regular post ever. @Frobby would be duly impressed! I think this is basically saying you are ok with Mayo being a starter this year and let it run it's due course. I agree. Another reason to let him start the year as the opening day 3B is that he has needed some time to adjust to each level and the major leagues will probably be the same. As probably the only rookie hitter on the opening day roster, he should be given a little leeway to adjust.

Be clear on your argument. Is your argument that he can't play 3B effectively, or there are better options? And do you do all your assessments based off minor league fielding error rates? Isn't that a little pre-2000ish way of evaluating?