Tony-OH

You have the no brain part right, but that's anyone who still thinks DL Hall should start! It's never been about stuff with Hall, it's about the amount of pitches it takes him to get outs, his health, and the fact he's 25 years old and has never pitched more than 94.1 innings in any professional season. HE IS A RELEIVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I do find it a little ironic that you tend to dismiss Wells over him not be able to get through a season as a starter (which I agree with) but you think it's a "no-brainer" that a 25-year old guy who has never thrown more than 94.1 innings (and he did that in 2018 in Low-A ball) should be the 5th starter. No offense, but that makes zero sense. Not to mention you degrade the bullpen by taking a left-handed impact reliever out of the mix.

No way Holliday keeps Mayo in AAA. Mayo is way closer to being ready than Holliday at this stage in their careers. Holliday will be on the Gunnar plan. You either have an unrealistically poor opinion of Mayo or don't understand where these two players are in their development to think Mayo is not coming until 31 August because Holliday is going to be starting at 2B. I will be totally and utterly shocked if Holliday is starting at 2B on opening day or even before June. I think the Orioles want to get him as many reps as possible at shortstop and that will be done in AAA.

But DH can't be clogged up because Adley needs that a good amount of time when he's not catching. I still prefer to see if he can play RF before sticking him at 1B. 1B is a waste of a special arm and he runs well enough at this point that he should cover enough ground in RF in Camden Yards. I do think long term he won't be at 3B, but my entire point is that he'd be fine there for now. If Ortiz is still here, than I think he goes back to AAA and plays a mix of RF/3B/1B. If Ortiz makes the team, I think he ends up the everyday SS as he's the best defensive SS in the org while Gunnar is the best defensive 3B in the org.

I think a lot of scouts/analysts got Westburg's defense wrong, mostly because arm strength is a bit overrated. When you look at arm strength numbers in baseball savant, you will see a decent amount of players with low arm strength numbers that have average or above average OAA numbers. There is so much that goes into whether a fielder executes a play. I would say that he first has to position himself, but now that is taken care of by the little card that is prepared for him for each batter. So let's forget positioning for now and assume that is not player dependent anymore. Let's just look at what happens once the ball comes off the bat. First, he has to identify the speed, direction and spin of a ball hit in his direction. This where a fielder's first step quickness comes into play. Secondly, he has to get to the ball in an effective manner. This means judging the hops if he has time, and then getting himself in a position to field the ball in a manner that allows him to get his feet set quickly for a throw. Next, he has to have the hands to get his glove on the ball accurately by ensuring the ball goes into the webbing of the glove. Once the ball is in the web it's now a process of setting his feet while conducting the exchange of the ball from the glove to his throwing hand. Now here's one of the things that is not judged by any metrics that I've seen but is as important or maybe even more important than pure arm strength. It's the point where the fielder is now preparing to throw the ball by moving his arm into a throwing position. That arm path can be significantly different for each player. Players with short arm paths, in conjunction with a quick exchange, have a quick release. This is how players like Cory Seager, Xander Boegarts and especially Dansby Swanson all have above average OAA despite well below average arm strength. With that all in mind, I think that happened with Westburg a bit. Visually, a scout can see arm strength during throws, as well as all the other things mentioned above, but I do think arm strength is the easiest to determine. What happens is a guy will get pegged as having a below average arm and get pigeon holed to 2B. Last year, Westburg actually was better at 3B than 2B according to OAA and FRV despite him having a below average major league infield arm. Westburg has always moved well because he's athletic, but he's 6-2, 210 so I think scouts/analysts see him as going to lose some of that quickness so they pegged him as a below average defender. My biggest issue with his defense is that he's always struggled throwing moving away from where he need to throw and his hands we're slightly below average for me. But after watching him a lot last year with the Orioles, I didn't see any reason he can't be an average defender at 2B or 3B.

For some reason, despite the many scouting reports, including mine, that discuss his improvements defensively as well as his known outstanding work ethic, there are group of posters on her who have this feeling his awful at 3B. It's like it's 1980 again and their only information is his poor fielding percentage. At the end of the day, he has an impact bat and if Ortiz is traded, Gunnar needs to be the everyday SS. If Westburg is back at 2B, that leaves Urias and Mayo as the 3B options. Now those same people will most likely laud Urias for his defense while not realizing he was one of the worse defensive 3B last year according to OAA and Fielding Run Value. So is the Orioles defense better with Gunnar at 3B instead of Mayo, sure. Is Mayo behind Gunnar, Westburg and probably Ortiz defensively at 3B, most likely. Does he have the most impactful bat among all of them besides Gunnar, absolutely. Is Mayo the longterm answer at 3B defensively, probably not because I think as he grows into his mid to late 20s he will slow down due to his size. Does it make some sense to see if he can play RF effectively? Sure. So there a lot of possibilities, but dismissing Mayo at 3B by saying he can't play there is wrong in my opinion.

I think you are giving Hyde too much credit for his lineup choices and who he plays. I'm pretty sure he's given his lineup each day like the managers in the minor leagues are. Now he's mentioned that it's a joint effort with the trainers and the sigbot guys, but I don't think he has the authority to just bury a guy like Stowers and Ortiz were when they were on the roster.

Are you being serious Clark? Do we really have bring up the demise rates of average 30-somethings with a slow player's game skills? O'Hearn skills wise is a left-handed hitting Trey Mancini with less bat. Even if you aren't concerned over his turning 30, are you concerned that his .312/.361/.532/.893 slashline to start the year (155 PAs thru 7/14) was at least partially driven by an unsustainable .370 BABIP? O'Hearn was a nice story, but he turned back into a little better version o the pumpkin he was before coming to the Orioles. He should have no role on this team. Santander can play 1B better than O'Hearn and Adley was pretty good in the minors. Kjerstad belongs on this opening day roster and that will be tough to do if O'Hearn is taking up a roster spot. I'm hoping he can be traded for value but I get a feel he's going to end up DFA'd at some point or traded for a low level minor leaguer. Maybe the A's will give up somebody for him?

O'Hearn's downward production as the season went on and his age are two things that I have concerns about. He as a nice story, but no way the Orioles should be going into 2024 expecting him to repeat his 1st half numbers over an entire season. In 2022 with the Royals, he under performed his xWOBA (.330) with his wOBA (.272) by .048 points making him a nice potential breakout candidate. In 2023, he outperformed his xWOBA (.324) with his wOBA (.339) by .015 points suggesting more regression could be at hand in 2024 when he'll play at 30-years old. All I know is that he slashed .273/.293/.444/.736 from July 15th to the end of the season with a 46K to 5 BB ratio over 213 PAs. And that was with a high BABIP of .320. Right now, it's either him of Kjerstad on the team in the backup/in-the-mix RF/DH/1B role. I'm taking Kjerstad.

I like to look at how hitter's hit against a pitch before assigning grades at the major league level. Using xWOBA, which is the expected weighted on base percentage (.320 MLB average overall), his .240 xWOBA against his fastball is pretty elite. Now, is it HoF level (80 grade), I'm not sure, but it probably is at least a 70 grade pitch despite "only" average 95.6 MPH last year due to the reasonings in the tweet. That .241 XWOBA was 21st in baseball for 4-seamers with 10 or more PAs. So very good, but I'm not sure I'd call it HoF level (80-grade).

I think this is the key point that some here are missing. I have never argued that Mayo is the best defensive option at 3B amongst current candidates, and yes, Gunnar is the best combo option at 3B, but I've seen people just be dismissive of Mayo at 3B at all. Now I understand and agree with those who say there are better defensive options at 3B, and Mayo very well may be a better long term fit in RF or 1B (though I think Basallo will be a lot there to save his bat), but if Ortiz is moved this offseason (and that's a big IF still), then Gunnar is my everyday SS and I'd rather see Mayo at 3B than Urias (assuming Westburg is still here and at 2B). I lot depends on who is still here come spring training. I will say IF Ortiz is still here and wins the SS job, moving Gunnar to 3B, then i think they send Mayo back to AAA. If they do that, I'd like to see him get a healthy amount of starts in RF.

This is the Adam Frazier post for this offseason!

I think a lot of this depends on the role they eventually see him in performing at the major league level. If they want to develop him as a starter, than there are different set of criteria to getting promoted than a guy who's role will be in relief. Relief is always the quicker option and for an older prospect who is burning through options, this might be the last year for him to prove he can start. I do think the Orioles will be fairly aggressive with him if he does well to start the year in AA (expected start). With more mature hitters in AAA who chase less, it's the level where pitchers need to really hone their command and repertoires so they may rather he get more innings there than AA. It really just depends on whether he's handling AA hitters.

I get this feeling that Kjerstad is going to be traded. I might be wrong, but it would not surprise me. I think by 25-26 Mayo may be in RF but let's just keep him at 3B for now and go with inhouse candidates. LF: Cowser but don't sleep in Beavers slipping in here or even Horvath. Norby is a dark horse if not traded. CF: Bradfield is the obvious choice here but his stick needs to show it will handle upper level pitching. RF: Kjerstad for now, Mayo is a possibility. Like with LF, Horvath and Beavers could be options.

Looks like depth middle infield guy for Norfolk or maybe even Bowie depending on need. Guess he must really love the game to hold on this long so he's probably a good veteran clubhouse guy.

This may actually be the most "Just Regular" Just Regular post ever. @Frobby would be duly impressed! I think this is basically saying you are ok with Mayo being a starter this year and let it run it's due course. I agree. Another reason to let him start the year as the opening day 3B is that he has needed some time to adjust to each level and the major leagues will probably be the same. As probably the only rookie hitter on the opening day roster, he should be given a little leeway to adjust.

Be clear on your argument. Is your argument that he can't play 3B effectively, or there are better options? And do you do all your assessments based off minor league fielding error rates? Isn't that a little pre-2000ish way of evaluating?

Just thought I'd highlight this part to those who have made their minds up that Mayo is not a third baseman. A masher at 3B is very valuable and while his bat is going to play at any position, it's a lot easier to find a RF or 1B than 3B with power. Th perfect upside infield for me: 3B: Mayo SS: Henderson 2B: Holliday 1B: Basallo That's a lot of offense and solid defense up the middle. Now this very well could be a 2025 or 2026 lineup since Basallo is at least a year or two away and Holliday probably needs at least another half a year. and maybe by the time Basallo is ready Mayo will need to be in RF, but I like this upside to this group here and think it would be a good offensive/defensive group. Now is it the worse thing in the world if Mayo moves to RF? No, especially if Holliday can develop into a legitimate SS option defensively. Long term, Mayo may end up in RF and Henderson at 3B if Holliday can be the everyday SS, but I'd have no problem with Mayo being the starter at 3B coming out of spring training.

Well if you say so... lol

And that's just the reality of the situation. Wandison Charles and Ofreidy Gómez can sit 98-100 MPH, but a lack of control and consistent offspeed stuff have doomed them once they hit the AAA level.

Never heard of him until I saw the tweet. He'll pitch at 24-years old this season and has limited experience pitching. But, looking at the video clips, he can touch 96-97 mph and obviously has Jordie Henry as a fan so that can't hurt. Nothing wrong with taking a look, but he has pitched for awhile ineffectively. The offspeed stuff was not very good despite the "Nice" comments in the videos, but hey, why not take a look? I always wonder though, guys with arms like this who obviously are not going to make it as a hitter, why are they not focusing on pitching earlier? Just looking at his stats at UNC Asheville and then his COVID senior year at Connecticut University, he seems to be a guy who hits for average, doesn't strike out much, but doesn't have any real power or speed. If he could hit mid 90s, makes me wonder why he did not focus on pitching earlier in his college career? He's similar to Jack Maruskin who the Orioles signed after his draft league performance reportedly for $100K. They both have good arms but limited pitching experience but neither were ever going pro as position players. I guess if I knew I could throw in the mid-90s or higher, and knew my hitting did not translate to professional prospect, I'd invest in driveline or something similar to see if I could be a pitcher. The problem is making that full-time conversion at 23-year old makes it an up hill battle. Either way, I'm interested in following both him and Maruskin next season to see if the Orioles can develop these kinds of guys.

Nope, I understand you fully. You do not want him playing 3B. You may be right, but I feel he has a chance to play there. Saying that, I'm not against him getting a look in RF.

I believe your dislike for Mayo at 3B has been noted. You bang that drum harder than Can when he claims the poor union ballplayers as down and out working class Joes being screwed over by company management.

That would be my preference as well, though I'd have Mayo at 3B to start the year if I had my druthers right now.

Fair enough. If I was basing my opinions on what I saw at the major league level only I might have the same conclusion. Cowser will be better.

Santander may have improved last year from his previous two years, but he was still -1 OOA and -3 FRV. I know everyone wants to remember a few plays by Cowser in the outfield and want to say he's a bad defender, but I've seen him a ton in the minors and he's going to be a very good corner outfielder and adequate CF fill in.