Tony-OH

While I don't think Cowser is a top 100 guy either, mainly due to his left-handed pitcher struggles, Law has never been one to go against the grain with his selections.

Well I guess the only scenario in which I brought up is a long shot, but overall, I agree with you guys it's unlikely though I don't think Elias wants any of those AAA options outside of Hall starting for him this year if they don't need to. Saying that, I forgot about one other guy and that's Watkins. Actually Watkins could be that AAA starting pitcher guy behind Hall so thinking about him, there is no need for Wells to go to AAA to be that depth. So I agree with you guys now, I don't see Wells going to AAA.

Is that you @Can_of_corn?

You're missing my point on sending Wells to AAA. It is not because Politi would be a better option, it would be to give the team depth in starting pitching available at AAA. Now, Tate could very well be moved in a trade though those trades rarely happen in spring training, and Baker does have two options, but let's say they go with Wells in a middle relief role and then someone goes down in the rotation at the end of April or early May? Wells is no longer an option because he's not stretched out. Now, the one thing we probably both agree on is that Wells is most likely a better reliever than starter. Wells will be 28-years old next year and has never thrown more than 119.1 inning in any full season ever, including the minor leagues. Well's fragile health could actually be in his favor for them NOT to do what I'm suggesting they may do, since they may realize he only has so many pitches in his arm each year and they could maximize that out in the pen. Personally, I like Wells in the pen where his stuff played up and his ability to stretch out gives him more value out there. So it really depends on a few things including how good Politi looks. Now I didn't see anything special from Politi's stuff when I looked at a few of his games but the result speak for themselves so there is some deception or spin rates/true spin that enables him to have more success than his visual stuff suggests. Now, the Orioles could send Baker back to AAA and keep both Wells and Politi or someone could get hurt and all of this is a moot point. My only issue who is the starting pitching depth in AAA if someone goes down? DL Hall? Potentially sure, especially is he's throwing the way he was throwing in May of last year as a starter. So I guess in the end, I agree with you that Wells will most likely make the team, but IF they decide he's their 6th starter and they don't think he can stay stretched out enough to go into the rotation with an injury, they could decide to send him to AAA to stay stretched out.

Agreed, the Orioles infield flexibility with those guys as well Mateo/Henderson does take away a little bit of the need for him to play 2B. I still think his ability to get on base and perform a bit when not playing everyday will give him the edge, but we shall see. Clearly Elias mounted a bunch of backup 1B/bad corner OF options for some reason, so perhaps that's the way he's leaning. It's fun to play along and try to figure out what his intentions are, but this is a guy who played Odor all year last year and went out and got a washed up Aguliar and played him over Stowers so I've also learned that making sense is not always the way he goes!

I was discussing if the Orioles want Wells to be starting pitching depth, they could send him to AAA to do so since it doesn't appear to be a spot for him in the Orioles rotation right now. I guess in theory he's in competition with Kremer and Bradish for the last two spots so a good spring could see him make it, but we know Elias doesn't like to lose useable arms. If they feel Politi can help them, they will keep him sending someone to AAA. It makes sense to have someone stretch out and ready to come up if there is an injury in the rotation. If they keep Wells in the pen and use him as a middle reliever/set up guy, he won't be stretch out enough to start. But if they send him to AAA, if the timing is right, he's available to come up and get dropped into the rotation. Now, the Orioles could feel Voth is that swingman guy but again, they have stretch him out enough to get to 5 innings without wrecking their bullpen with a bullpen game. I think a lot of this has to do with how Politi looks. If he's just meh, then I think they send him back and Wells makes the team in the pen where he's probably better off anyways. It's definitely an interesting situation to watch this spring.

Potentially, but McCann and Rutschman's ability to play first base hurts those backup 1B options and gives Vavra a leg up. Now obviously all of those guys come with more power, something nice to bring off the bench, but Vavra has the ability to get on base and work good PAs and has a little positional flexibility by being able to play 2B and outfield (even has some CF experience). Vavra being on a crowded 40-man also gives him a leg up on the competition.

I don't think the Orioles envision Westburg as a utility type unless it's as a super utility type where he's going to play 6 times a week at different positions. Vavra actually is a pretty good bench guy because he's a decent pinch hitter type late in games for Mateo or McCann and will give you good at bats. If he can show the ability to produce without playing a bunch (A skill often overlooked by some people) then I think he's a pretty solid 26th man for the team. My guess is Westburg is sent down to AAA to play a combo of 2B, 1B, and perhaps corner outfield if they envision that super utility kind of guy. If they see him as Mountcastle's ultimate replacement, then he should focus on 1B and if the 2B of the future, then most of his reps should be there. My guess, and it's truly a guess because trying to think along on how the Orioles develop guys positionally is a challenge, is that he gets moved around at those three positions though he could also see time at 3B and SS occasionally in that scenario. In Westburg's case, I don't havea problem with him moving around a bunch because he's probably not going to be a plus defensive player anywhere outside of 1B potentially. Obviously it's hard to know how he'll play the outfield, but he runs well enough to play out there.

Perhaps, but if they were going to do that, then I would have gone with Ortiz and lived with his adjustments with the bat since he'd be the best defensive second baseman they could put on the field.

Good call on Vespi, forgot about his surgery for second. Politi could very well get that last spot if he looks good this spring. Elias and company have been pretty good at identifying that last one or two spots in the bullpen talent off other teams DFAs so maybe that will work with the Rule 5 as well.

The signing of Frazier doomed Westburg's chances of starting the year in Baltimore and I won't rehash my dislike of that move. What I will find interesting is how Westburg is used in AAA. Will he play 2B mostly? Will he play 1B, 2B and OF? Will they continue to waste reps with him at SS? Will he still play 3B? While I think the Orioles have done a pretty good job in development, where I don't think they've done a good job is identifying and playing guys at positions where they will most likely play at the major league level. If the Orioles didn't believe in Vavra at 2B, why not play him a lot if LF and CF to give him more experience. Knowing they were going to have a whole at 2B this year, why was Westburg not given a steady diet of 2B to see if he could develop better there? To me, this failure of positional development is why they felt a need to sign Frazier for $8 million despite having Westburg, Vavra and Ortiz with AAA time under their belts. The Orioles clearly believe moving guys around to give them experience at many positions is more important then getting guys rep at the position they most likely will play at the major league level. It remains to be seen whether or not the positional players will struggle initially at the major league level because they never really got the reps in the minor leagues at their main position.

My only nitpick is that I think Akin has the team made is not trying to win the last spot. The team could send Wells to AAA to start and be ready as starting pitching depth. If that happens it allows either Politi or Vespi to make the team in the pen. Hall only makes it if they decide he's a left-handed reliever.

Perhaps, but if he is playing on the dirt it will be at 2B and it won't be plus defense. As for the bat, if the power develops then perhaps it will be major league average, but I just didn't see a ton in there that makes me believe he'll be a major league average infielder. Could be a solid utility type.

I wasn't too far off. In reality they are both about a 45 runner.

Frazier is a little like Vavra for the outfield. Below average sprint speeds and jumps.

Vavra's speed was not as good as expected (45th percentile) and his poor instincts (burst total was -5.6 ft/sec) in the outfield mean he's probably not a great fit in Camden's expansive LF. Auston Hays fell off a bit but his 61st percentile spring speed and -1.2 ft/sec wasn't awful though he was -4 OOA coming in on balls last year. McKenna is a good offset to Mullins in CF but it appears they'd rather have a left-handed hitting outfielder with good defense to cover down on Hays in LF. The problem they have is that both Stowers and Santander are right fielders due to their limited foot speed.

It really is weird. I mean, Wildcard is usually the guy that will die on a hill of evidence against his stance if it supports an Orioles player. Somehow, Irvin has hit a nerve with Wildcard. I mean, he argued for Frazier, Bemboom, and a host of DFA'd acquired players but thinks Irvin will have to battle for the last spot in the bullpen with the Orioles this year and will be out of the rotation by May. Honestly, I think Irvin is the best player Elias acquired this offseason.

I hear you, and I'm not saying you are wrong, but in the case the Orioles are contending in September, would you rather have him able to give you 5-6 innings then? I guess in theory he could make the team and pitch out of the pen with Wells starting at first but they may want to keep him him on a starter's routine pitching 3 innings for the first month or so and that would not be easy to do in the majors vs AAA. I want to see Grayson starting the year in the rotation as much as anyone, but he probably only has 120, maybe 130 innings this year if we go by how teams typically bring guys back after short years.

I doubt they will play service time with Grayson just to play service time games, but I would not be surprised if they try to get an extra year while trying to manage his innings this year. I know we all hate to hear that, but it would not surprise me if he doesn't make the rotation out of the spring training. Now, I could be wrong, and I hope I'm wrong, but they probably want to keep him around 120 innings this year so how they do that will be interesting. I guess if you can gain an extra year of control then it might be worth it.

That's a pretty good way of putting it overall. If Holt can find a tick on the fastball or improve the curve or change, he could be better than expected. Saying that, eve if he's the guy he was last year he's fine as a #4 starter and besides, he gives the rotation a left-hander, something it's been missing since Means went down (Zimmermann struggled).

Virbisky is a 6-foot-7, 24-year old right-handed starter who was drafted in the 17th round by Oakland out of Penn State. He uses a 91-93 MPH fastball that touches 94 on occasion and can get swings and misses up in the zone. He offsets that with a 83-85 MPH slider that can flash average as well as a 77-79 MPH curveball. He has a changeup, but no feel for the 85-86 MPH pitch. I watched a few starts of his starts and he has good mound presence and is not afraid to shake off his catcher. He's athletic and his fastball comes out real easy making me wonder if there's more in there in a relief role where he can let it loose a bit. He's around the plate a lot and his fastball can get barrelled which makes him a bit homer prone. Don't take too much away from his ERA since he's pitched in some very much hitter's leagues. Overall, I think his future is in the pen and he would fall in the 40-50 range in the top 75.

That's actually pretty funny! Try the PR office next.

I was at one of the games where his wife's country girl gave a "concert" after the game. Let's just say she was not ready for prime time.

BTW, I know you are focused on his bad away numbers, but he would have allowed 21 home runs Camden Yards vs 23 in Oakland. Also, he seems to pitch to the scoreboard a bit. When he's up a bunch, he tends to allow more runs but he ended up 4-0 in those games. Overall, he's solid #4 starter that should keep the team in more games than not. Barring an injury, he's in the rotation and would need to be really bad to be replaced by May.

Grayson is the only one that is not a lock in my opinion and only if the Orioles decide to manage his innings in a way that precludes him from starting initially. I can't see a scenario barring injury or some kind of total loss in stuff this spring that would stop any of Gibson, Irvin, Kremer and Bradish from starting in the rotation. Wells' stuff plays up in the pen and although he can start, he may be a better value in the pen. Voth proved to be a nice swingman, 5th starter type but his inability to go deep into games very often makes him better as a long guy in the pen and swing starter.