Tony-OH

Your thoughts have been noted publicly.

Sorry to turning this back to Mychal Givens in his thread about signing Mychal Givens (hint, hint). Of interest, Givens had trouble with lefties last year with them posting a .273/.371/.455/.825 line with a .348 WOBA against him. His main weapon against them has always been his changeup, but put up a .401 WOBA against the pitch last year after being .242 in 2021 and .330 (below average) in 2020. He has lost about 3 to 4 inches of horizontal movement (fade) since 2019 but has gained about an inch of vertical (drop). He started throwing more right on right changeups last year with success and his slider is still pretty effective in getting outs against righties. His fastball was hit a little bit by both so he may have to be a bit more of a junkballer in key situations. He's lost about two MPH from when we had him 2019. I still like the acquisition though. This makes Krebiel and Politi types now fight to make the team vs fighting for a spot.

Where Szymborski and you are wrong is that Frazier is not a league average player and hasn't been outside of one half of baseball for three years. At 31 years old, and with slowing speed, it's doubtful he will "bounce back". We can all hope he bounces back, because honestly, hope is is all we really have with Frazier after looking at all the data. Personally, I wouldn't sign a guy when hope is our best indicator of future success.

If the return was right yes. Can't be rolling the dice on international prospects or getting Vavra/Nevin level prospects. So far, Bradish is all Elias has to show at the major league level from his trades of Bleier, Givens, Castro, Bundy and Iglesias. Vavra has a chance to play at the major league level if someone is willing to live with his defense at second base or he gets better in the OF, but Nevin is not a major leaguer no matter how long Elias keeps him on the 40-man roster.

At the end of the day, whether any prospects are dealt or not, Elias felt Frazier is the best choice to be playing second base or somewhere every day for the Orioles next year. That is the biggest issue of all.

Sorry Frobby, but you are either being stubborn here and or just continuing to play devil's advocate . I know you've seen the arguments statistically and statcast wise so no, blocking the prospects is not the most important criticism. It's about 3rd on the list.

Regardless it doesn't hurt to take a look. The acquisition of Givens makes it a little harder for him for sure.

Thanks. When it comes to "winning" trades they are always much more nuanced than just WAR, but it's the easiest to use. I was just commenting to the poster than Kremer has already provided the Orioles more WAR, but you are right in that the Dodgers could still call it a success from their perspective. Besides, Kremer is probably an extra guy with the Dodgers when you look at that rotation.

Politi will pitch at 27-years old next year. He's either one of the best bullpen arms and makes the team or they'll send him back to the Red Sox organization. He was a weird pick overall, but Krehbiel has options so maybe they can stash Krehbiel in AAA and give Politi a look for a month or so.

I don't think Politi's spot on this team is guaranteed at all. He has to prove he can be an asset in a bullpen that just got better with Givens.

Or you and some others can not be so sensitive. Sad how fragile some people are nowadays. I'm trying to be nice here, but at some point, either accept that when you constantly support or attack Elias and you are a broken record one way or the other, you will get labelled. Apologists, Haters, whatever. If that bothers you so badly and you can't handle the group name, then perhaps this is not the place for you. I was about done with this, but now I am getting tired of the whining.

This is where I'm at. He's a solid set up guy who is better than Krehbiel. Right now I see these guys in the pen as of today: Bautista Tate Perez Givens Baker Akins Potentials: Politi Wells Voth Krehbiel DL Hall (I think he's going back to AAA to start) Vespi Baumann

Here's the thing, I'll root for Frazier too. I'd rather he be good and go against every conventional thinking we have to go off of and help the team win then be right.

See, we do agree about something with Elias' team! I appreciate ya and don't get too upset over the fanboy thing. I really just lack a better term to use when some people seem to always defend Elias, no matter what. I can mix it up at times, but for the most part, I'm not even mad when I'm disagreeing. I might come across that way, but I'm honestly trying to get my point across while maybe teaching others some points on the new stat metrics and how to use them. I certainly don't know it all, and I'm constantly learning and adapting to new information that becomes available. I love baseball and Orioles obviously, but also don't mind mixing it up a bit. The funny thing is, if someone called me an Elias hater, would have just laughed it of and showed them all the times I agreed with him or said nice things about them. But man, do people hate being called a fanboy of Elias. lol What term is acceptable for those of you that think Elias deserves the benefit of the doubt on everything he does?

Damn, that's a lot to digest! lol First off, don't take things so personally. I can vehemently disagree with your take, and may even think you and few others are "fill in the blank for whatever term means you are a super duper Elias supporter to the point you think he does no wrong," but that doesn't mean I think less of you as a person or question your knowledge of the game. Now that we got that out of the way, let me start with you comment that because I think this move is unnecessary, ridiculous, and certainly not worth anywhere close to the money he spent, does not mean I think Elias is an idiot. See, when you say that, you lose all credibility because I know you've read me say many times, including in this thread all the things I think Elias does well. I've made my concerns quite clear why I think this move is insane for this team at this juncture. I've also made it quite clear that none of us know whether Elias can take that farm system and team on the cusp of contending and get it over he finishing line because has not done so. His answers last year when the team was contending was to trade two of his players (Absolutely the right thing to do) and then add Brett Phillips and Jesse Aguilar down the stretch while also playing a below replacement level second baseman almost every day. As for Veteranosity, I do think players can help others during a year, but I don't think a player plays completely different or significantly improves just because of a presence of another. I think Odor probably a fantastic clubhouse guy and he clearly is a great teammate, but give me 1 WAR second baseman who is an average teammate and I bet the team would have been better. We hear was a great clubhouse, and that's nice, but guess what, winning teams (Minus out the A's and Yankees in the 70s and early 80's under Billy Martin) tend to get along because winning is fun. I think the manager has something to do with that environment as well. Personally, the Orioles very well have made the playoffs last year if Elias would not have kept Odor and Chirinos on the team all year and replaced them with 1 WAR players (So below average starter (2.0 WAR) level). I'll be honest, I think last year was a complete throw away year for Elias but when the team was surprisingly still in it late in August, he acquired a washed up DH while still playing Odor. You said you think they've done a good job here, and I'm pointing out the players they choose to go with last year when still in a playoff chase were bad choices to prove my point that they have failed at times. All I'm saying until they don't, that's an unknown area. As for them having the job and I don't, and they have more information then I do, and I'm just guy with a website, you're right. But this place would be pretty boring if all we did around was say, "Well, they must know more than us so let's shut up and just wait and see what happens!" So I'm going to continue to agree when agree with moves and disagree (with statistics and facts) when I don't, and you can keep on thinking Elias does know wrong because he has the job and most know things that makes the Frazier signing make sense. Of course, they are just like the things they must've known about Odor, Chirinos, Phillips and Aguilar being big helps despite all the stats telling him not to do so. But I guess those failures don't count.

I would say the number one reason some good AAA players flame out in the majors is they are good enough against AAA level players, but good enough for the majors. There is no bigger jump then AAA to the majors. The consistency of talent at the major league level is what stands it a part. I watch a lot of AAA while scouting players and while they are all good ball players to get to that level, and some are obvious future major leaguers, you can typically tell the guys that are missing stuff. Saying that, they now have metrics where they can see how good a hitter does against major league caliber breaking pitches and velocity. I wish I had that minor league statcast data because I really do think I could give a very accurate scouting assessment on who will do well after studying the numbers for a bit. Ultimately though, the only real way to know if a player can play in the major leagues is to give him a legitimate chance.

Machado was worth 2.5 WAR with the Dodgers and they did not win the world series. Kremer was worth 2.8 WAR last year alone and is entering his prime next season (27-31). Diaz was supposed to be the big name and he failed, but that's why you get several players in deals and right now, if you just go by WAR, The Orioles are going to win this trade greatly unless Kremer gets hurt or implodes out of nowhere.

To soften the blow??? Trying to be nicer then just blasting them? It's kinda like when you counsel someone and you start off with something good before then giving them the bad news.

Wait, so you believe the team was 31 games better because of the veteranosity of Odor who was worth -.4 rWAR and he personally made Mateo an excellent defensive SS? Damn, we should resign Odor to the $8 million contract if he was really worth 31 wins with his Veteranosity. Personally, I think it was addition of Rutschman and Gunnar to a lesser extend, the improved starting pitching, the improved bullpen, and the ability of Santander to play healthy most of the year that led to the 31 game improvement more that -0.4 dWAR veteranosity guy, but feel free to believe what you want.

Nah, Elias doesn't cut his guys and rather run them out for 450 PAs of suckitude. He's certainly not cutting a $8 million player.

No offense, you should send this to MASN and see if you can write for them. There is enough fluff in this post to make the biggest fanboys and girls proud. If you think they made it clear "they want go for the playoffs" and thats signing Frazier does that because "Frazier is a proven Major League player, a veteran who will have an impact on how the young guys are used, yes. But he will also provide more of the leadership to the young infielders. He will help them develop." That veteranosity better be pretty strong to overcome every his lack of bat and speed. And I'm sure the young guys that he's now blocked will just enjoy soaking up his knowledge while they are in AAA. How did that veteranosity help the Orioles last year as Odor, Chirinos and Aguilar failed over and over. Now we get veteranosity Frazier!! Print those playoof tickets.

I went back and specifically scouted Westburg at 2B. I did it by going to games where he made errors, and when he turned DPs (5), and generally just looked over about 20-25 plays. There are inconsistencies to his games. His errors are all over the place from not catching the ball (twice), botched a hard ground ball while in the shift playing shallow RF (on grass), and a shovel "throw" with his glove. He doesn't have a great arm when throwing moving away from 1st base, but I did see him come across the middle field the ball by 2nd base and make a strong enough throw to get the runner. Basically, I see a guy who may not always be the most fluid defender there, but he turns the DP well enough and I think his bat will outweigh any minuses in the D. If it was my team, I'd be going into 2023 with Westburg as the second baseman with Urias as the backup and Ortiz in the wings at AAA. If I wanted to go pure defense, Ortiz would be an immediate plus defender at 2B. At no point would I consider Frazier, not even if he was available for the minimum salary.

It's really hard to make these lists with any kind of accuracy, but it is a little surprising not to see the Orioles on this list. They've had plenty of time to build their presence now. Saying all that, I'm not worried about these lists or whether the Orioles are on them or not. Let's see the class first before having concerns. I'd really like to see the Orioles take some chances on some top pitchers this year though. Regardless, let's see who we sign before getting too worried or happy.

Well said. I could not have said it better. Elias is a smart guy and he's done some really good things to set this organization up for success for a long time. BUT, what he hasn't shown yet is the ability to correctly add major league talent into his organization through trades or free agents that will make this team a true contender. Imagine if Elias went out and got a real second baseman last offseason instead of Odor? What if we would have won 2 or 3 more games? At the end of the day, no one expected the Orioles to contend for a playoff spot and when they were unexpectedly in the race in August. Phillips and Aguilar was how he decided to make his team better. At the end of the day, we don't know if Elias can take that next step as a GM and add the right right players through FA and trades to make this team a true contender.

I'm never quite sure why some people think Elias in infallible. We can believe that Elias has done some very good things for this organization while also believing he's failing at other portions of his job.