Tony-OH

I think it's reasonable to think he could be a #4 starter. His improvement on the drop of his change and ability to locate it low and away will help. I'm not a huge fan of the cutter because any mistakes with the pitch ends up a BP fastball, but if he limits those mistakes, he can be fine.

They may have been. but Cease's stuff is crazy good and he's on his game.

Doesn't get much better than that Mullins catch! Wow!

It very well could be that the pitching coaches were able to help him get the extra movement. I'm more focused on the stuff, movement, velocity and command wise.

Nice to see him have a good game. Let's hope he can put a few in a row together because his bat has been a big disappointment. Saying that, his glove has been a nice surprise!

Whenever a pitcher struggles, goes to the minors, and then comes back and has success, I always wonder what's the difference? More importantly, is this success sustainable? Not at the 1.71 ERA level which we know is not sustainable, but is he doing something different from last year when he struggled mightily putting up a 7.55 ERA in 13 starts. Let's first take a look at his stuff: Fastball: The first thing that jumps out at me is the change of success with his fastball this year from last year. Batters are putting up just a .208 WOBA against the pitch vs .403 WOBA last year. Unfortunately the XWOBA is .340 so he's been a bit lucky. The fastball has less spin that has caused less vertical movement than last year and his horizontal movement has one less inch of horizontal movement. He's throwing it almost 10% less of the time as he's increased the use of his cutter and changeup. Cutter: He's added 1.7 inches of horizontal movement at the expense of 1.9 inches of vertical movement. Batters have put up a .326 WOBA but his XWOBA is .350 suggest he's been a bit lucky. He's getting more WHIFF than last year though so it's an improved offering if he's locating it well. Changeup: He's throwing 8.6 % of the time more than last year and his WOBA .379 is below average but better than the .621 he gave up on the pitch last year. Strangely, his XWOBA on the pitch both this year and last year are basically the same (.334 and .332) suggesting he's been unlucky with the pitch. The good news is he's added 4.1 inches of drop to the pitch. Curveball: Once his best strikeout pitch in the minor leagues, the change of balls and perhaps spyder tack has made it more of an occasionally pitch. He's throwing it 7.1 % less but has changed the shape a bit, adding 1.8 inches of horizontal break, losing 4.8 inches of vertical break and adding almost a MPH to at 76.4 MPH. He's getting 20% whiff compared to 30.2% last year. Overall: There is some difference in the drop to the changeup and horizontal movement to the cutter as well as adding a MPH to most of his pitches. Not a huge difference, but some improvements which could be allowing his fastball to play up a bit. Mistakes: So far, it looks like he's limiting mistakes with his cutter and curveball, keeping them more down and away and he's able to keep his changeup low and away and closer to the strikezone. Overall: There will be regression here, but if he can limit his mistakes, the four pitch mix should play well enough to stick as a starter. How good will be determined by how well he can limit his mistakes. His fastball still gets hit too hard so he's going to need to be able to throw his other pitches for strikes in order for the pitch to play up. The improvements in movement to the cutter and are nice developments.

I'd need to know more about Arauz' defense, but Villar most likely would have a better bat. I always liked Villar but he struggles when he doesn't get every day PAs, so unless the Orioles decide he's going to be the everyday 3B or super utility guy, I'm not sure he's an upgrade at this stage. Saying that, this team is still playing Nevin at 3B, and have been rotating Bannon up and down and now Arauz, so it's not like he has high bar to be better.

Winfield was an exception no doubt, but Judge is bigger and much heavier than Winfield. I'm just saying that Judge is a red flag for me as a free agent. He very well may defeat the odds, but he'll be 31 next year. He turned down what, 7 years at $31 a yr? Not sure what he's looking for I just think he could be a guy that injuries and other stuff could start to mount up as he closes in on mid 30s.

Big tall guys rarely age well. He could very well be an albatross by his year 31 or 32 season.

It's not my job to tell Elias how he should have done things differently. This is a false narrative done by people who wants to love their team and everything they do and aren;t listening to what I'm saying. I don't scout guys before they are brought into the system and I'm not one of those people that say you should have drafted player A over player B. As an analyst, I'm looking at what we have right now in the system and on the 40-man roster. I'm evaluating the current talent and then assessing where we are. While Elias has done some good things and brought some good players into the system, the only impact guys guys I see that he and his team brought in is Adley and Gunnar. Sorry, if that hurts your feelings or you just disagree, that's fine as well. Some people are trying to twist my Westburg stuff into saying I don't like him when I've said I think he's going to be an everyday MLB player. That's actually high praise because most draft picks will not get there. I don't think he's an impact guy and that's fine, not every pick is going to be an impact guy (some fans just think they will). Look, every time I show the least bit of criticism I get the same posters saying the same things over and over. Look, I get it, people on here are fans and while they're not twitteriot fans, they are still fans who want to give the organization the benefit of the doubt. I'm ok with that and understand it. But that's not going to stop me from giving my fair and honest analysis of guys.

I never said it was criticism did I? My comment is that he's had three and half years, three drafts, three international signing periods to bring potential impact players into the organization through drafts, trades and FA signings and he has two (Adley and Gunnar) in my opinion. Now some will argue every player in the system is a future impact player. I prefer to hold that to a high standard. That doesn't mean there are not more good players or even every day players in the system, just he's had three top five picks including a 1:1. He should have more in my opinion especially if their drafting and development is such heads and shoulder above other teams like some people on here want to think. I'm not saying it's bad, and you can argue we've seen so steps forward in several areas, but I hate to break it to people that the minor leagues is not filled with can't miss impact guys and we have an ownership group that is disarray, suing itself, and has shown no inkling in anything it does that it will do things in a first class manner or spend money. But I'll try to take this back to Gunnar, he is a big positive. It's rare for a kid this age to do what he's done this year and play a tough defensive position.

I don't think Elias give two hoots about marketing or fans or anything other than what he thinks is best for making this team a sustained winner. He will bring players up when he thinks they are ready and when it financially makes the most sense in the long run. Nothing else matters to him.

Deap breath. In then out, then in, then out! There. Feel better. Try not to read my posts if they make your blood pressure go up. It's more fun in your fan bubble, trust me.

Look, I get it, I'm taking a very unpopular position right now because everyone's fan bone is kicking in with the Orioles not sucking awfully by this time of the year. The Orioles organization destroyed whatever fan bone I had left and while I do still want them to win, I've decided I'm just going to be a realist when it comes the organization. I have no love or hate for anyone in the organization and will cover them in a fair way. If you want fanboy analysis, you may want to go to other places that will surely tell you every guy in the minors will become superstars. I'll call things as I see them and you can choose to poo-poo them all you want because that's your right. Back into Henderson, he's a great story for the organization and it's fans because he's a true breakout minor league player that the organization hasn't had since Trey Mancini broke out in Frederick all those years back. He legitimately looks like an impact player.

League averish production is not what you want from your true prospects. As I was always told, future big leaguers should be the best players on the field. they should be much better than their counterparts because the vast majority of them are not big leaguers. I'm not down on Westburg in that I don't think he can't still be a big leaguer, I just have tempered my expectations of him a bit after his mediocre AA stint. Now, could he turn it around and keep this AAA production and wipe that stain off, sure, he could. The good news with Westburg is that he brings defensive value as a an infielder. So if he ends up an averish major league hitter and has defensive value, he's valuable. Do I think he'd hit better than Mateo right now, I certainly do but that more because Mateo has become a liability at the plate and in the lineup. Let's hope Westburg can show that his hot streak of late is him making an adjustment to professional pitching and not just a hot streak against sub par pitching found in the minors. I like Westburg overall and I do think he can be an everyday big leaguer. His stick will determine his upside though.

Rom's stuff has taken and step back and he just doesn't want to commit to throwing an effective changeup. He doesn't have the stuff or velocity to be a starter without a plus changeup.

Certainly your right to be be happy where we are, but I'm not judging it just on Cowser's poor season so far. I typically like college hitters as high picks, and I think there is promise in guys like Stowers and Westburg and maybe even Cowser if his recent hot streak is an indication of him going back to what made him successful. But Henderson has a chance to be an impact guy and Mayo still has a chance to be an impact guy. I don't want to see Elias taking the safe route on this year's 1:1. He needs to go upside even if it carries more risk.

I agree. So far it appears the Elias regimes best pick and development story has come from drafting a high school player vs trying to use computer systems to determine what college stats translate to. I'm not saying that's all they use of course, but just that the college players have been less than spectacular this year especially once they've reached the upper minors, and in Cowser's case, High-A ball. I haven't drawn any conclusions on Elias' draft strategy and selections so far, but I can't say I'm elated after this season with a lot of top picks not performing very well. Westburg's hit streak in AAA has definitely brightened his star a bit though I want to see it over a longer haul, especially after 339 mediocre AA PAs. Cowser, Haskin, Watson have all underperformed expectations so far. While Mayo's year has not been stellar, he still has some good upside and is young for his league. I'm ok with guys taking a little extra time at a level when they're young, but not when they are million+ bonus babies out of college who are age appropriate or a little old for their leagues.

You can make any assessment on the fairness of what I said, but you've yet been able to tell me where I'm wrong. See there are feelings and facts when it comes to statements. You feel I'm being unfair when I made a factual statement. I didn't include any feelings or opinions when I wrote this, just plain facts. It's certainly up to you to allow your fandom to drive your feelings on this statement, but what can not be argued is that this statement is 100% factual and not filled with opinion or feelings of any kind. I don't understand how saying a factual statement is unfair to anyone.

Good for him. It's been a very long journey for him to compete again.

Yep, which is why I'm inclined to name him the best prospect in the system even including Rutschman. Saying that, I still have some concerns about him hitting lefties and would like to see that even out a bit. He's been drawing more walks which has helped his OPS climb, but not a lot of loud contact against lefties. And despite his athleticism, I don't think he's long for SS as the throwing accuracy and hands will contribute to a few more errors then you would like from an everyday SS. Plus I think he's going to just end up a bit too bit and while he can play there, he'll be a plus defender at 3B.

Go back and reread my statement and tell me where I'm wrong.

The odds were against most non blue-chip players in every organization. I know what you are trying to say, and while this organization was behind the times, the ultra modern computer integrated Elias regime gave away Yaz and has yet to produce an impact all-star player that was not in the system at the time they arrived. Now, can Rutschman and Henderson change that? We certainly hope so.

I feel like as an Orioles fan I'm always waiting for the pother shoe to drop because we're not allowed nice things. Saying that, Gunnar has been extraordinarily impressive this year and may be the best prospect in our system right now, and I'm including Rutschman.

I'm going to guess that this was the "I've been indulging in lots of brews" ScOtt version.