Tony-OH

He thinks Baumann is a reliever but he's #12? He doesn't think very highly of the system then unless he thinks he's late inning reliever and that's not the stuff I saw last year. Like I said, everyone is allowed an opinion. I kinda like when a guy goes against the grain with a placement. Heck, I'm the only one that put Mayo as high as I did so sometimes you gotta go with your gut. Law is going heavy on his gut feel about Ortiz. That's not to say Ortiz doesn't have talent, and I've said that Ortiz does have a upside as an everyday guy, but we need to see more on the field.

It's always interesting to get another take. Weight it as you wish, but there are certainly some head scratchers in the rankings but if the write ups match up, then the rankings are just how he personally would put them. Not everyone takes the approach I take which is if I can only have one guy in my system, who would I want when ranking guys over one another. As for Ortiz, that's pretty aggressive for a guy who missed as much time as he did and who didn't exactly tear it up overall offensively. Law is known to have his favorite guys so it looks like Ortiz is his new Adam Hall. Let's hope this one works out better.

" Means, Lyles, and whoever is sucking the least " may not be far from the truth when that rotation starts the year! Although I do think Lowther is going to surprise some people, that's a dang funny line. Kudos.

The reason I like having an aged base initial free agency system is it will get good players to the majors quicker. Let's see all players become free agents on their 28th year season. If a system like this was in place, Rutschman would have spent most of 2021 with the Orioles instead of in the minor leagues. Maybe even GRod would have been taking starts in Baltimore. If teams aren't worried about starting clocks, they will bring up younger better players earlier. Now would this system screw us with Rutschman? Perhaps, but if Adley is as good as advertised, the Orioles can be aggressive and sign him to a contract that would take him into his early 30's. So basically teams would also be incentivized to signed someone of these younger good players to earlier contracts giving them more money early on.

I don't really disagree. Again, I have zero issues with minimums being raised and bonus money for good performing pre arb players.

But then the best players need to play at "market rates". If I can get a guy at $600K who will OPS .750 vs paying a 30-year old $8 million for a .765 OPS, I'm going to go with the $600k guy. Anyone who feels sorry for a guy who has made $21 million over his career really needs a reality check. I think we all can agree the younger players salaries pre-arb probably needs some adjustments. I like the idea of the top 75-100 valued players getting some kind of automatic bump and top 30, getting a significant bump. I'm against any system that forces teams to start overpaying 30-somethings again just because they have to make a floor. As much as I respected Adam Jones as a player, it was clear he was done as an effective major league player when he was given away to the Phillies. Pre analytics, Jones would have probably had signed another three year contract worth well over $10 million per year and some team would have had an old, unproductive player that probably would have run out there everyday due to his salary and respect for the player. I don't want to go back to that. If they want to push for more money for players pre free agency or even better, make free agency an aged based thing that allows players to hit free agency in their prime, then I'm all for that.

i meant to hit .760 - .799 vs the lower one. I think there will be an adjustment time for Adley at the major league level, but he will figure it out and end up near .800 OPS as a rookie. It would not surprise me if he struggled through the first 4-6 weeks but he will still get on base thanks to his great eye and ability to foul pitches off.

These three are interesting for sure. I explained my reasoning for putting Norby and Vavra where I put them in their write ups, but mainly I have concerns about Vavra's injuries (which go back to his college days) and think he might end up more of a utility guy, while Norby still has the upside of an above average hitting second baseman with pop. As for Prieto, it's hard to judge him because really all I have is his highlight video's against some really sub par pitching in the Cuban League and a scouting report from a scout who saw him in Cuba and in international tourneys. I haven't formally made up a top 30 with the new international players but he would definitely be on the list. He does have an upside of being an above average hitting second baseman, but I really want to see what he looks like against good upper level pitching. We've seen Urrutia and Alvarez flame out in the Orioles minor league system. As 21-year olds in the Cuban Leagues, here's what the all slashed: Prieto: .403/.464/.579/1.042 Alvarez: .363/.404/.613/1.018 Urrutia: .365/.456/.513/.969 Now Urrutia had a four year lay off and was 26-years old when he finally got a chance in the Orioles minors and Alvarez was 24 compared to Prieto who will be 22, so that goes in Prieto's favor. After watching some of the highlight's films, it's hard to know how those stats will translate since it appears there are guys that could be playing in a minor league system, as well as beer league softball players. I doubt the level is as good as what Norby saw in college so let's add in his college numbers last year: Norby: 415/.484/.659/1.143 Norby's number are superior to all and we also have his .283/.413/.434/.847 line in Delmarva to work from. Prieto is supposed to be a good defender at second base, but his below average arm will limit him there. He doesn't bring a stolen base threat to his game. Norby makes more errors than I would like to see from a second baseman, but he has the tools to be good there. Vavra looked good enough for me in my looks last year, but he has the athleticism and speed to go out to centerfield. So Prieto's value will be on his ability to hit for average and get on base with maybe occasional pop. Saying all that, If I had to rank them in order, it's Norby then Vavra and Prieto who are neck and neck for me right now mainly because Norby's bat has the most upside for me due to his pop. If pushed, I'd have Vavra slightly ahead of Prieto.

Every interview with Cowser shows him to be a thoughtful, hard working young man who is continually trying to improve his craft. If he can generate more power, his upside really gets much higher because of his pure natural ability to square baseballs up.

I think the Orioles will keep Mayo at 3B until they think he definitely can't play the position at the major league level effectively. Mayo moved pretty well, but he doesn't have great feet and that's why he frequently throws of the wrong foot or in between steps. He's got a cannon for an arm so he can make up for some of that, but it hurts the consistent accuracy of his throws. The good news is that if his bat continues to develop like was saw last year, his bat plays anywhere.

But that "angle" makes no sense. I'm anti MLBA and ultra rich Scherzer type player. I'm not anti-player. I've said many times I don't like either side because they're both greedy and couldn't care less about the fans of they tried. I'm on the side of mid and small-market teams getting a system where they can compete with good management year in and year out. I get it, the fan boys love their players. Not saying you per se, but i understand why the fan boys love the players and want to side with them over the big greedy Billionaire owners. Afterall, grown men still try and get autographs from the players, but they don't from owner now do they? I think younger productive players should get more money early on, but the MLBPA is more worried about getting Scherzer's of the world $50 million instead of $40 million a year and getting big pay day for 30 something washed up players. So it has nothing to do with fan favorites like Mullins or Mancini getting more of the Angelos' money. I care about a competitive system and the games being played on time this year. The players rejected mediation which could have helped. Anytime one sides reject mediation its because they think they can "win". They might "win" but it going to come at the small to mid market fans' loss.

Lol... Man, i must be wrong, "most analysts" think the players were right to reject mediation. Man, I must be wrong then.. lol

Well unfortunately, the players aren't interested in mediation. Why would you want mediation when you can keep crying to the press and have them take your side?

This is win for the big market teams and the players. All I know is the fans of mid and small market teams are not going to be happy when this is finally over as competitiveness for all 30 teams will be diminished.

Not really wrong, but in this day and age, getting through the 6th regularly makes you a workhorse.

I just looked at Fangraphs to see what players they have above Lowther. McSweeney and Burch are on there. Let me just say this: LOL! Honestly I typical respect Fangraphs and I don't know who came up with this list, but I'm not even sure where to even start when they have a 23-year old reliever (McSweeney) who put up a 5.09 ERA at Aberdeen with a 1.53 WHIP. I'm assumed they were impressed by his small sample size at Bowie. Honestly, I'd have to go back and look at my scouting report on him because i don't really remember his stuff, but I know it wasn't impressive. I don't know, to each their own. But go look up what Lowther did as a 23-year old and get back to me.

I'm definitely the low guy on Bradish and have known that for awhile. As an Orioles fan, hope they are all right. As an evaluator, I still see a guy who's command needs to improve to stick as a starter because he uses too many pitches to get guys out. The slider he started to use more at the end of the season did make him more interesting, but I'm not a fan of his change and the curve is too inconsistent and I'd like to see more swing and misses of it in the zone. I could have put him higher based on the fact that I think he could be 8th or 9th inning bullpen guy, but I gotta go with my thoughts of "if I can only have one player in my system, who would I want", and this is where he fell for me.

Well we all agree on Rutschman and Rodriguez as 1-2.

Don't they all?

Man against the boys and he did it with the pro wood bat!

And there you have it. they are looking at the skewed stats that he put last year instead of looking at the stuff on Savant and then looking at the stats once he settled into an every five game starter for the most part. Another thing to consider is the uniqueness of Lowther's speed and movement of his pitches. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/affinity-pitchers-bySHV#players=pitchers&player=675912-L&s=0.6 This chart shows he pretty unique with only two pitchers (Andrew Heaney and Dillon Peters) having a .7 or above similarity score. I'm still trying understand the importance of these similarity scores still so I'm not sure you can draw any conclusions based on them yet, but it is interesting to see how different he is to most pitchers. It's going to be about limiting his mistakes in the middle of the plate for Lowther. If he can do that, I think he's going to end up a pretty good starting pitcher, and certainly worth way more than 35+.

I could be wrong, but unless a high school kid is the clear and obvious choice as 1:1, I'm betting he goes with one of the high floor college guys because he has more data on them including 2-3 years of college stats. Saying that, the two high school hitters he's given a million plus to (Henderson and Mayo) are both top prospects in the system.

Remember, most of these top deals are made when the players are 14. Imagine trying to decide to give a 14 year old with a good arm a huge bonus. This is why they need a draft of 16-year olds for the International market.

Not only that, if you look at his movement of his pitches and the success he had once he had settled into a 5-day starter routine, along with his success in the minor league prior to 2021, it boggles my mind anyone would not think he's at least a 35+ player. But I can bet the evaluator looked at the stats and went, "yuck", without understanding the entire situation last year.

It's all good wildcard. I don't have any issues with anyone who disagrees with my rankings or thoughts on guys, but I do get peeved when it looks like someone is putting more credence into some national list after they've been here for a long time. While someone can disagree all they like or have a differing opinion, I can guarantee no one has put as much time into watching video and talking with knowledgeable people about the Orioles prospects. I've been doing this now for about 23+ years and have learned a lot and have adjusted how I evaluate as I've gotten more experience. Having so much video to watch on MiLBTv has been a great help to fill in blanks I once had and allowed me to make my own evaluation over word from others. While I can respect the national pubs for trying to do all systems, I'm not sure they have the depth of knowledge to be too accurate, which is why you see highly drafted or once previously highly rank players stay high in their rankings year after year.