Tony-OH

Well, if he's not traded, I hope you're right.

Ending the season in New York after having to end the second to last season in New York this year seems a bit unfair.

I think SOME people, including me would, but not all. I also think SOMe people on this board think we don't like Holliday when we say we're willing to trade him. I know I'm looking at what we need this year and the next few years and Holliday is the piece we can least do without in my opinion. That doesn't mean I don't think he's going to be at the top of someone's lineup for a long time.

I don't know what sources you read/listen to, but if you think the Orioles would move Mayo and Basallo for Skubel, I think you better adjust your sources. Whether Holliday is available or not is up for debate and I've made my feelings know which one of the big 3 I'd trade for him, but at the end of the day, the Tigers are going to want a haul for him. I'd be elated if the Orioles could get him without one of the big 3, but I don't see that happening.

Definitely. That was during the whole "athleticism" debate. He does not have that twitchiness or quick reaction in the field nor does he have a quick release. I do wonder if his arm issues will bring down his value and teams will focus on getting Mayo or Basallo.

I think that is what I would be most excited about. I would add though an ace with 2-3 years" of controllability. I would also be excited about adding an impact reliever without giving up one of the top 3 guys.

I don't recall saying that a month ago. I said in last year's scouting report that I thought he could develop into a SS, but I thought he would end up at 2B. Maybe I said he might be playable like Westburg would be playable at SS, but you would not want him out there everyday. Obviously his arm has not been right this year, and that certainly plays into it for me, but I really don't see the extreme quickness that he would need in his release to overcome the lack of arm strength. Like I've been saying, I still think a move to centerfield may be in the best interest of the team if he isn't traded.

I think Cowser's lack of clutchiness is really what makes him more polarizing. Those failures in high leverage situations have really put a mark on him for some, and that's understandable. I know in the Yankees game in the bottom of the 9th, I 100% would have wanted Mullins in that situation than Cowser. I do think Cowser is going to improve and that he's still going to be a good player at the major league level. Saying that, this year is about winning or at least getting to the World Series and I think there is room for both Cowser and Mullins on this team. Besides Mateo, who the team seems very reluctant to put in CF, there is no one else ready to play CF defensively on the team and no really good options in Norfolk either. Interestingly, with Stowers new found speed this year (80th percentile) they were playing him some in CF in Norfolk.

Sometimes you have to give up something to get something and while I like Holliday a lot, Skubel solidifies a rotation that needs help now and in the next few years at a cost that the Orioles will be willing to spend. I'm on record as saying I'll live with Mayo's defense at 3B and Westburg should improve if he plays more at 2B. If you trade a Holliday, Mayo or Basallo, you need an ace pitcher back with at least two and half years of control. Out of those three, I'd prefer to give up Holliday, but it's not because I don't like him. This team is on a 100 win+ pace without Holliday but has lost Bradish, Means, and Wells for the season. I'd feel very good going into a playoff series with Burnes, Skubal, and Rodriguez as the top 3 starters.

I've said those 3 are untouchable for awhile now, but if I can get two and half years of Skubel, then you have to consider moving one of them for him. Now, which one? Two things concern me about Holliday, his defense at 2B (he's not a SS) and his ground ball %. Now, I still think Holliday is going to b a very good major league player, but Mayo and Basallo have impact power bats. While I know the Orioles could use some OBP, and Holliday may certainly be able to provide that if he can get out of his own head at the major league level, I just love the power potential of Mayo and Basallo. So I guess yes, if the Tigers say they will only do the deal if one of those three are involved, I'm reluctantly giving up Holliday.

If I'm the Tigers, I'm certainly going to try and get as much return as possible. Saying that, I'm not trading Holliday AND another top 100 prospect for him.

I had Cowser and Ortiz as similar prospects in last year's Top 75 even. Cowser got the nod for me over Ortiz by a hair. Rk Name POS Current Future Ceiling Risk ETA 1 Jackson Holliday SS 45 65 70 Low 2024 2 Samuel Basallo C 35 65 75 High 2025 3 Coby Mayo 3B 45 60 70 Low 2024 4 Heston Kjerstad OF 45 55 60 Low 2024 5 Colton Cowser OF 45 50 55 Low 2024 6 Joey Ortiz SS 45 50 55 Low 2024

I said this in the Holliday thread but it probably belongs here. Not going to lie, I'd trade Holliday for two and half years of Skubal. It's not that I don't like Holliday, I do. In fact, as soon as they get him off the dirt I'm going to like him a lot more, but I just think if you can add a young left-handed ace for two and half seasons while were directly in the window, I think you have to go for it. Maybe you ask Detroit to add a Kevin McGonigle while we add in a guy like Luis DeLeon and maybe a Dominican guy like Luis Almeyda.

Not going to lie, I'd trade Holliday for two and half years of Skubal. It's not that I don't like Holliday, I do. In fact, as soon as they get him off the dirt I'm going to like him a lot more, but I just think if you can add a young left-handed ace for two and half seasons while were directly in the window, I think you have to go for it. Maybe you ask Detroit to add a Kevin McGonigle while we add in a guy like Luis DeLeon and maybe a Dominican guy like Luis Almeyda.

I was a big OAA supporter because it's supposed to be about the metrics of how far a distance a fielding must go and how hard the ball was hit, etc. But the more I've seen of OAA in both the outfield and infield, the more I've been wondering if it needs some tweaking. I still think it gives us a pretty good indication of how good a player is, but I also agree that it can't be taken as the fielding bible of stats. It would not surprise me if we don't either hear about or see some changes over the next few years.

This is correct...

Not surprising he walks a lot of guys with that arm action.

I have not given up on any of those guys and even in Forret I see some genuine tools that suggest he could very well end up the best guy they've drafted. I was just saying maybe he'll be a guy that they make some adjustments and he becomes the guy. It was more of an offhand comment then suggesting none of the guys in the system are any good. Now outside of Forret, do any of those other guys you mention wow me? Not really. I still have not seen any reason to give the Orioles the benefit of the doubt that they know how to scout, draft, and develop amateur pitching because they haven't done so yet. Elias and his crew keep going after he same kinds of college arms, using the same kind of draft capita to go after them.

Yes, absolutely. Thank you @86this for filling on once again and doing an amazing job or keep our conversations organized and controlled during all three days of the draft! I especially appreciate you this year because I was offline for a good bit of the three days of the draft. You made the board and our community a better place!

Well, again, what we know is Elias is not going to change his system for drafting. He drafts college bats, outfielders preferably, and when he goes pitching, it's to college arms with good stuff, but inconsistent command and stats that show why they're available in the mid rounds. Maybe Allsup will be the first one they actually can develop into a major league pitcher.

Updated through top 18.

I need to do more analysis before starting to do that, but Honeycutt will certainly be in the top 10.

Well, the one thing we know, is that Mike Elias is doubling down on his college bat philosophy.

Updated through top 3.

Switch-hitting catcher who is a bat first guy, but not terrible defensively apparently. Brett Cumberland was also a switch-hitting, hit first, catcher who was a second round pick. I'm not saying he's Cumberland, but there are some similarities from some of the write ups. Again, I'd rather then go after some pitching and I think I've made my thoughts known on their lack of success with college hitters after the 1st round, but I'll go with Elias and crew know more about these guys then me. But when some pitchers in the 3rd round are pitching in the majors out of this draft and he's stuck in AA, I'll have my concerns once again about the philosophy of avoiding pitchers and going college bats. Saying that, outside of Basallo, the system does not have a real major league catching prospect. Handley has injury concerns and offensive issues, Ardoin couldn't hit water if he fell out of boat. So if he can turn into a viable option to split time with Rutschman, then it ends up a good pick.