now

Ah, the wonders of the internet. Adley, better start working on those splits!

Sorry, I don't know that reference, had to search it to find a baseball movie (A League of Their Own). So how did she do it?

I dreamed last night the Orioles won the World Series. Adley laid out to catch a popup for the final out. Disclaimer for you bettors: I can't say for sure what year this scenario unfolded!

Sure, why not. Moustakas, Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, James Shields, Wade Davis, let's just bring in whoever is still breathing from the KC gang that hijacked us in 2014. For old times' sake. (sorry for the snark, this is just what happens to me when those names pop up, nine years later)

Because... SSS? He's not a good fit anyway? BTW the end of the season with HOU was pretty bad too (75 OPS+ in 165 AB).

If there was any doubt before, Trey's playoffs should have settled it. Just say no.

The Same Only Better (sung to the tune of "The Same Only Worse," played in reverse)

As with the overall question, there's wiggle room in how league rankings shake out, depending on which metric you choose. Here are AL rankings for the 2022 O's in some selected stats: Hitting (OPS+) - 10/15 Fielding (Rtot) - 9/15 Pitching (ERA+) - 7/15 Rotation (QS%) - 14/15 Bullpen (SV%) - 1/15 Bullpen (IS%) - 12/15 Bullpen evaluation is a case in point. The save % seems to confirm my own poll answer (bullpen), but when it comes to inherited runners the ranking drops to 12th, not so impressive. I'll still gamble and go with the always unpredictable bullpen. Agree that the rotation could make or break the team's fortunes, however, and it's my dark horse pick to succeed beyond expectations.

It is kind of an ambiguous, which is actually okay to consider in different ways. These aspects of the team have different quantitative weights also in game outcomes. Batting outweighs fielding; starter and bullpen innings are roughly split; and so on. Yet another way to look at would be: which aspect achieves a higher ranking in the league? (Anybody know offhand how we ranked in 2022?)

Which part of the 2023 Orioles do you feel will be its strength? The offense, defense, starting rotation or bullpen? Choose one preference. Roster as it's currently constructed.

Baseball Reference Similarity Scores Mountcastle Similar Batters: Jared Walsh Chris Duncan Nathaniel Lowe Chris Shelton Renato Nunez (ouch!) but... ... thru age 25: Ike Davis Bob Robertson Mo Vaughan Glenn Davis Josh Bell Tony Clark Carlos Delgado Babe... Young Albert Belle David Ortiz Austin Hays Similar Batters:: Wes Chamberlain Justin Ruggiano Billy Conigliaro J. D. Davis Butch Nieman ... thru age 26: Jeffrey Hammonds (yup) Mike Young Paul O'Neill Stephen Piscotty Chris James George Foster Butch Huskey Candy Maldonando Mack Jones Roy Foster Comparing these lists, I'd take Mountcastle hands down.

Brings to mind Ben Zobrist as a good comp.

Mountcastle, on age alone (25.9 vs. Hays 27.5). Still approaching peak, vs. past peak.

That does seem to jibe with Elias's clarification of "liftoff" as a multiyear trend, not a one-year phenomenon.

@SemperFi basically answered this with the post about positioning. George Will's 1990 book Men at Work profiled four greats: Tony La Russa, Orel Hershiser, Tony Gwynn, and Cal Ripken. Cal's chapter focussed on defense. From what I remember, it elaborated on what @SemperFi addressed, in terms of prepositioning, based on knowing the pitcher, the batter, the particular pitch, and the game situation. (An excellent read, BTW! I notice there's an updated 2010 edition, same content but a new introduction). https://www.amazon.com/Men-at-Work-Craft-Baseball/dp/0061999814/

That's a good way to put it. Not at all what was advertised ("liftoff")... but still useful to grab a few more wins (or, consistent with "securing the floor," to prevent a few more losses).

That's a really interesting stat for Vavra. Small sample but it stands out in context of the other players. It confirms the eye test that he supplied a much needed spark when he started to play... getting on base, running the bases, energizing the lineup. Yes, I also remember he botched one critical play at 2B. But hard to argue the overall positive effect he had on the team, reflected by the +9 wins. (Sort of the reverse of Odor, whose occasional heroics obscured his overall net loss in our record.)

I see no problem with selected matchups or blowout innings. The problem is automatic starts 2~3 days a week (caveat: unless he's actually hitting like he deserves it).

How do you figure? If he's in the lineup between a third and a half of all the Oriole games (60-80 starts) that's a big hole, unless they can bring his bat back up to average.

What I don't like with an iffy bat at backup C is that they have to play so much, effectively reducing Rutschman's overall net value. When Adley shifts to DH, instead of two good bats at C - DH, we're down to one. Everyone argues defense for the backup C for some reason. To me it's not a given that that's an appropriate tradeoff if the bat doesn't play. Hoping that, as with Frazier, they can fix this former (2019) All Star's downward trend at bat.

Yes, Stowers. With OF positions Hays, Mullins, Santander.

With various debates ongoing here re. who mans what positions, and how the rotation and bullpen shapes up, it's interesting to reference what Fangraphs Roster Resource projects (pending further moves, of course). They give the SS spot to Henderson, relegating Mateo to bench. Urias is penciled in at 3B, with Frazier the starting 2B. Rest of bench is Bemboom, Lewin Diaz, McKenna. They list the rotation as Gibson, Bradish, Kremer, Wells, Rodriguez. Bullpen is Bautista, Tate, Givens, Perez, Baker, Akin, Politi, Voth. For minors they have reorganized the page by position, which is helpful as a depth chart at a glance. All of the above assignments for the Baltimore roster seem reasonable to me in terms of greatest likelihood (except I doubt we'll see Bemboom). Where I think there's the most wiggle room is the order of the rotation. I can see their rationale but virtually any other order of those five is plausible, at least once Rodriguez settles in. What do you guys think? Is theirs an authoritative guesstimate of where we're at?

Doubtful that will do it, if he goes on to star elsewhere.

I wonder if this thread's P/W (Pages/WAR) ratio (53/0.9 = 58.888...) is a Hangout record.

Somehow I don't see Mullins as a good fit for LA. He carries a chill, relaxed, low-key and low-energy (in a good way) vibe, which actually seems to be a good fit on the Orioles, but I don't see it meshing with LA image-wise.