now

In that case, fair enough!

Wow, these are some profound propositions. Would be intriguing to see them fleshed out with data. I kind of imagine Sid & Mike must be all over it. And I suppose the course of this offseason will prove their intentions one way or another!

Not to nitpick, but the OP was about translating from minors to majors. So I see only two to check there, so far. And Henderson, though impressive, only had 132 plate appearances. Phillips and Urrutia aside, not even every phenom pans out.

Good post, Frobby. Every year we get our hopes up but Nov-Dec always comes up empty. If you go back further to the '90s, it was probably the heyday of Oriole offseasons: Albert Belle, Jimmy Key, Scott Erickson, Palmeiro, Alomar, David Wells, Kevin Brown... the hits just kept on coming. Still I'm not sure there was much action before January. When I think of December signings, pretty much F. Robby stands alone!

Okay, thanks. I agree that's a good thumbnail calculation and seems about right. Thus confirming: "yawn."

Here's a related question: Last year the O's missed the playoffs by 3 games. Just as a starting point, is it reasonable to assume that Gibson/Frazier will net 3 extra wins compared to Lyles/Odor?

A check back to where we stand now... It's comical to see Roster Resource put Kyle Gibson as our #1, but that's where we are, at the moment. I'll list our rotation (and back end) with their order and then add my own "true" ranking for a wildcard team (albeit an unscientific peg) in parentheses. 2023 only. 1. Gibson (4-5) 2. Bradish (3-4) 3. Kremer (3-4) 4. Wells (3-4) 5. Rodriguez (2-3) 6. Voth (5) (IL) Means (3) 8. Hall (4) 9. Zimmermann (5) I predict we'll still see a FA signing (ceiling 3) and trade to improve the above (ceiling 2). That improvement should get us the wildcard, while allowing further evaluation of the entire cast ahead of 2024. By that time a lot of key questions and moving parts will have settled on the position side too. I'm impatient like every year at this time, but predict the above will help gain some wins. Maybe a summer trade will be what it takes for the rotation to upgrade enough to matter... and/or we can finally get some individual "liftoffs" from within (Bradish, Kremer, Rodriguez, Hall).

From these evaluations it looks like a list of 21-40 in past years, bumped to 31-50 by now.

Hard to argue with your individual grades. BTW they total 12 U, 7 D, which looks promising. MLB.com just ran a feature on teams with most gains in one season, with 12 of the 13 regressing the following year. But they're pretty open ended assessing this team. It's interesting to note, from their team summaries, that a lot of the big gains came from contributions of one or two key players. Can't say that was the case for us, since even Rutschman didn't play a full season. Maybe Bautista on the pitching side. Overall, I'd say we're ripe for some individual breakout seasons in '23, along with a slight gain teamwise.

I disagree, because they bring durability and predictability. Sure you can shoot higher for a superstar who misses half his starts, then you have to plug in a Watkins or whoever. That brings the avg. value for the rotation spot lower. So think of Gibson as necessary but not sufficient. Have to add better pieces as well, to raise the rotation ceiling. A Lyles or Gibson holds up the floor.

Here's a litany of bad money gone over good/great players--the brutal reality of "the market": https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/the-most-underwater-contracts-in-baseball-and-why/

Ouch. That still smarts.

Wow, that's highest praise. Hard to believe it, but bring it on!

Oops, just had to edit to add Hays, who of course would be first in line if Mullins is traded. I agree, I'd rather trade Hays (and Urias); wonder if that duo would bring what Mullins would bring.

That philosophy makes a lot of sense. Hasn't anyone quantified by now the long-contract risk profile of SP versus position players? Seems a key factor to weigh, so I'd be surprised if Mike&Sid aren't all over it. (Though of course mileage does vary, player to player.) On the Mullins front, I see temporary options in house between Hays, McKenna, Vavra(?), Cowser, Haskin... until Fabian/Beavers/Trimble down the road. Maybe they'll see where Cowser is at midseason, then hit the trade market for Mullins if Cowser is ready for the Show. PS Or take a short-term flyer on Bellinger, who could also fit as a 1B option?

Shopping in the second/third tier of SP could still mean a #1-2 starter for this staff. Not sure that a #1 type in a league-wide sense is that reliable or predictable year to year anyway. Same goes for playoff time... it depends on who's hot. Look what Bradish and Kremer did in Houston that last series, for instance.

Curious about "rumors," which imply "leaks," which we seem pretty sure aren't available at least to our "insiders." There was the purely speculative piece in MLB.com in the MAD Magazine style of "Trades We'd Like to See," but I would clarify that's not a rumor just an exercise.

Tony's writeup certainly makes Johnson seem underwhelming.

e.g., Rom...?

MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince apparently wants to resume this thread, proposing a straight-up deal of Mullins for Lopez. Sounds good to me. Is it realistic?

Yeah, really. We even got to dream on Kershaw... plus Votto, Cueto, et al. Oh well, Tillman and Jones and a little Flat Breezy wasn't too shabby.

I like your take, too. Yours makes most sense for opening day, mine is looking more toward mid-season.

I think of our rotation possibilities in pairs: Rodriguez and Hall - new kids on the block Wells and Means - returning from injury Kremer and Bradish - flashed dominance, approached consistency That's a great start but of course you need more than six candidates for a rotation. Here's another way to shake it out: 1. FA or Trade 2. Rodriguez 3. Bradish 4. Kremer 5. Hall/Wells (piggyback) 6. Means (when ready) 7. Voth, Zimmermann, etc.

Dunno if this fits in "what the O's will do" but it strikes me as an attractive trifecta: https://www.mlb.com/news/dodgers-justin-turner-cody-bellinger-clayton-kershaw-decisions Turner for DH, Bellinger for 1B/CF and a retooled bat, Kershaw for the staff ace. Plus it returns Justin T. to Baltimore who drafted him, and finally lands Kershaw after we opted for a different Bedard trade. Don't you think the Elias wizards would love to get to work on Bellinger?

Excellent research to look at, thx for doing that! It does appear that even though LHB have a significant advantage vs. RHP, they are dragged down by their poor splits against LHP despite the smaller sample size. Applying the overall split of 72% RHP and 28% LHP, the weighted outcome favors RHB, ..729 to .723: RHB v. RHP 0.729 0.715 72% 0.515 RHB v. LHP 0.764 28% 0.214 LHB v. RHP 0.723 0.742 72% 0.534 LHB v. LHP 0.675 28% 0.189