now

Worth recalling, in this vein, the James article showing top closers held the top correlation to WS winners over a 40-year sample (M. Rivera bias notwithstanding). I bring this up not to advocate keeping Lopez, but on the contrary, to dangle him to a bona fide WS contender this year, in hopes they're aware of that importance. As for Felix, just say no! (Edit: Oops. They all fail... eventually.)

Ah, the crux of the biscuit: can plate discipline be taught/improved? This was a prime topic in the Adam Jones era (not just Jones but the whole org.). It's evident recent draft philosophy has changed accordingly. But as for players predisposed to chasing... is there any recent track record of improving that skill/talent through coaching?

Yes I know. Just enjoying the short-term gratification of maybe an extra win to stick in our pocket.

At least Castillo didn't go to NYY. Which makes me happy on principle.

Strange to be checking the scores and even watching some of the other games finish today. Still July 2022, who'da thunk? Plus, no Luis Castillo to face, this weekend.

Yet another example of the Birds doing what the '90s-'00s Skankees always used to do to us: giving up false hope of an early lead, biding time, then coming back with late rallies and a shutdown bullpen. Not a bad formula, thanks NYY!

Sure but the point remains: relievers are the riskiest bet going forward, and also the easiest to replace (at least, under the O's current talent/pitching gurus).

Yeah, I was thinking of the previous day's lineup, with Odor and Santander (755) instead of the sub-600 duds.

Todays hit outage notwithstanding, I've been appreciating the value of a balanced lineup, with most in the range of .730 to .780 OPS, where the daily contributions (and cold spells) get spread around. Hard to shut them all down (except today).

Also when totaling WAR, it's not just a matter of more pitchers failing due to injury (They All Break); it's also loss of more playing time (e.g., Hall, GRod 2022) even for those that survive, thus undercutting their cumulative WAR. (And yeah, there are the YDiazes and DJStewarts on the position side too, just not nearly as often).

Creative analysis, thanks. BTW the comparison may be moot now that we have Holliday in Witt's spot!

Good old (new?) analytics, boiled down to the absolute basics.

Favorite comment from the panel so far is that now the O's have their Bobby Witt Jr. to go with Adley.

Which just goes to show how a balanced club with no superstars (these O's) can actually be a better team (not to mention way cheaper) than one top-heavy with the mega-contracts.

So how would you compare the two team outlooks going forward?

Speaking of sustainable, can we outpace that other streaking team, the Mariners? Anyone here know more about them as a rival dark horse? (e.g., isn't Julio Rodriguez right up there with Adley as a top rookie leading the charge?)

The year of the dark horse?

Yikes, Bud Norris! Would you trade Josh Hader for him again, given the chance for a do-over? Just asking, since the price for a comparable 2022 deal might be DL Hall. Now if you could package Santander/Tate/Lopez, that's an entirely different story.

Wow. Does that qualify as quantifiable veteranosity? 522 / 6 = 87 VP (veteranosity points)

Love this perspective. It's ephemeral and depends so much on context. Take Odor again, as a Yankee. In that city and clubhouse he was probably a nobody (I'm guessing). But on this team he can be a cheerleader and a role model for overachievement in key spots.

Another way to say it is, since he won't bring a mid-rotation starter in return, might as well keep him around for veteran presence. (You could even say the same for Odor).

Keep in mind the sample was of WS winners only. Rivera was CL for 1998-99-00-09, all good years where he no doubt ranked high if not #1 each of those years. So your points are worth considering. As for Lopez, he might fit the bill of a one-year wonder as a top closer, and that could be the difference maker for a contender in need.

Not sure about that sky-high launch angle though. Looks like he's overcompensating for the Kjerstad GB trend...

With props to whoever posted the Bill James analysis of WS winners by position, it's pretty clear that: --Lopez should be a top target for playoff-bound teams. --The O's top target in return should be a starter, preferably lefty. The next most valuable top-tier position for WS teams per James is catcher, so glad we have that in the fold already. Next is RHP, and then 1B (Mountcastle) and CF (Mullins/Hays), so again the prime trade priority for O's future WS success should be Lopez for a LHP (or RHP) starter. My guess is closer is the most volatile position to rank year-to-year, so we need to strike while the iron is hot (Lopez '22) and we're not in contention ourselves. Here's the whole list (average ranks of the players starting for World Championship teams, by position, over 40-year sample): Closer 7.9 Left-Handed Starter 10.2 Catcher 10.8 Right-Handed Starter 11.1 First Baseman 11.1 Center Fielder 11.5 Second Baseman 11.8 Third Basemen 12.4 Shortstop 12.5 Left Fielder 12.7 Right Fielder 13.2

Can anyone recap Ben McDonald's comments on the draft in last night's Angels game? (My computer audio was too low to catch most of it). It sounded like he was predicting the O's picking some pitchers high. I wonder if he is privy to some inside info. For context, here are the draft rounds of our current starters: Lyles 1:38 (Hou, 2008) Voth 5 (Wash, 2013) Kremer 14 (LAD, 2016) Wells 15 (Twins, 2016) Watkins 30 (Det, 2014) All these guys being castoffs from other organizations, it shows you can get serviceable starters without the prohibitive odds of drafting and developing your own. That being said, who are the likely picks on Big Ben's radar?