Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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45 minutes ago, Frobby said:
You have a very distorted view of what’s normal progression IMO. Westburg was drafted in 2020. For him to debut in 2022 means basically he went from being drafted to the majors in two years. That’s highly unusual. Looking at 2019, there were 261 players who debuted in the majors, 162 of whom were drafted out of college, and only 9 of those players were drafted in 2017 or later. So obviously it is not impossible, but it’s rare , and it would be far from absurd if Westburg didn’t debut until 2023. And that’s what I expect is going to happen.
It may not be normal for all college players, but I was talking about his personal trajectory. As a supplemental 1st round pick, with his apparent aptitude, athletic ability, defensive prowess and SEC experience, I don’t think it would be unusual at all. It also would not surprise me at all if it took him another year. I would not be down on him much if it took a little longer.
I think it might be ok to move him a little quicker than they might normally and pair him with Adley, Stowers, Neustrom and such to build the young nucleus together as soon as possible. He will continue to learn on the job and may struggle some at first.
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10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Yea but he was a college bat that zoomed through the minors, has virtually no one ahead of him and is a few good months away from being in AAA or the majors.
TBH, my feelings are if he doesn’t get to the majors this year, that the team is either being absurd with promotions, he has been hurt or he has greatly underperformed.
The reality is that if things go right, he should be the everyday SS by August.
I agree that a normal progression for him would be to come up around August, perhaps sooner. I really want to see him thrive in AA first. I am not as worried about AAA, but I think it is important to have a strong few months in AA.
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I went with Kjerstad here, but it would not surprise me if Tony chose Norby. Tough call with so much still an unknown for Kjerstad, but it seems like Kjerstad is on the road back. Only a matter of how long it takes him to regain his strength and athleticism. The rhythm and timing will come with his swing reps.
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Yes, a very odd situation. I actually noticed Cossins in the bullpen late in the season for a few games. Maybe Chris Holt is not a good communicator, at least that is what I got from the article. Why else would they need to bring Holmes back to the dugout for his ability to counsel?
I have wondered what the impetus was to make Chris Holt the pitching coach to start with. He was very good in his pitching coordinator role, and then quickly promoted. The only thing I can think of was another organization was going to offer him the pitching coach job to snatch him away and it forced the Orioles hand.
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I went with Stowers. His consistent hard loud barrels are impressive. He is a very good defensive corner OF, and he thrived in AAA. It was tough to pick between Stowers and Jordan Westburg, but I know Tony really likes Stowers loud contact.
As for Kjerstad, I choose to be optimistic that he can return completely. If he does, I probably rank him 3rd on this list. I think he has a better hit tool and more raw power than Stowers, but I have to say that Stowers has improved his swing decisions tremendously. He is impressive. If Kjerstad does embrace what the Orioles teach, I can see him in AAA by the end of 2022 with similar numbers to Stowers. As his strength and energy comes back over time, he will be the better player of the two, IMHO.
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On 10/30/2021 at 10:44 AM, Tony-OH said:
I'll be honest, I have zero expectations for Hunter Harvey anymore, but, if he was DFA'd by another team, he's the kind of arm I'd be happy to see the Orioles get and stash on the 40-man.
Now I haven't done the full analysis of the 40-man with regard to players who need to be protected yet (busy with prospect stuff obviously), but I just don't see him as a guy you just dump unless it comes down to obsoletely needing a spot.
Do I expect Hunter Harvey to be in the pen next year? Based off his inability to stay healthy I'd say no, but I also know he has the capability to be an effective reliever so in the off chance he can finally stay healthy, that's one less arm to find and he's cheap and controllable.
I understand your thoughts, and I agree with most everything. To me, he is like having a Corvette, but I can’t afford to buy gas. Looks great in the driveway, but it doesn’t take me anywhere.
If they had DFA’d Hunter last Winter and kept Pop, we would have brought out the pitch forks. But would it have been a better outcome in hindsight? Sulser is the name many here bemoaned keeping over Pop, but he was actually a productive reliever in 2021. Just to throw out a name or two that may actually be more productive than Hunter, I like Krehbiel and Greene better. Yet many want to see them DFA’d.
I know we have an attachment to what little flashes he has shown. But if keeping him costs us a guy who works out well and sticks with another team, and Hunter ends up on the 60 IL again, IDK. I guess to keep him, if I were Mike Elias, I would have to be certain that hunting isn’t more important to him than his workout and throwing programs.
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On 10/25/2021 at 4:35 PM, 7Mo said:
Agree with all of your post.
If the O's win 70 next year, that's an 18 game improvement. Pretty big step. If they'd won 70 this year, they'd be picking 6th so I think there's one more year with higher picks than I would have guessed.
You may be correct. We may see them drafting in the top 10 for another year, maybe two, but after that Elias will have some explaining to do.
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On 10/19/2021 at 7:25 AM, sportsfan8703 said:
I think we’re going to pick like 1, 33, and 40, with the 1st rd pick, the comp a pick, and then the 2nd rd pick. With this draft pool and Elias’ affinity for going bat heavy, we are going to be absolutely loaded post this draft position player wise.
I hope they find a pitcher they really like at 33 or 40. We need more high end arms in the system. They could always go over slot later, like with Baumler, but some good high school and college arms likely available there.
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14 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:
One interesting thing about expected value models for drafts, though, is the ultimate scarcity of roster / positional space. To make an extreme hypothetical, if you had 30 guaranteed FV50 players and 30 players who had a 33% chance of being an FV 60 and 67% chance of being a complete bust (0 FV), the latter is actually better despite being a lesser collection of future value in total. You would have to weed out approximately the same number of guys under scenario 1 as were busts in Scenario 2.
Admittedly, this is oversimplified and neglects value of tradechips in the org, etc., but hopefully makes the point about the merits of high variance / high upside prospects in a limited slot at ML level environment.
They should take some shots at high upside risks, absolutely. Gunnar Henderson, Coby Mayo and Carter Baumler represent that, I think, but in a place where it would not hurt as much as missing at 1-1.
I wonder if they believe they are deep enough to take that level of risk at 1-1, just yet. At some point soon, he should be turning some of the prospect capital into major league pitchers. Of course we should not be drafting in the top 5 picks of the draft after this year. And the international player pipeline should start bearing more high end prospects as well.
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On 10/23/2021 at 8:57 AM, Aristotelian said:
I guess what I am saying is take every draft and every player on a case by case basis. If there are multiple HS players worthy of #1 don't pick the college guy just because it's hard to choose from the HS guys. I do think Elias likes college guys and that is fine if that's what the models say. I am just saying pick the college player because you think he will have the best return relative to risk, period.
I think/hope this is who Mike Elias is. Hard to say, just yet. He was part of the Astros group that selected Carlos Correa, but what role did he play in that exactly?
We know their model favors track record/data, but I believe him when he says it is a balance with scouting. I think we’ll see him take high upside HS gambles, but I tend to think not this next draft at 1-1. If there is a guy like Lee, who will hit and hit with power from both sides, that is tough to pass on. If you take a guy like Elijah Greene, you had better be sure.
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On 10/21/2021 at 11:20 PM, Frobby said:
My sense is that Neustrom will be a very similar player to Stewart. Not sure he’s an upgrade at all but arguably it might be worthwhile to find out anyway, since Stewart has looked like a replacement level player in 193 games, 609 PA. He could improve a bit offensively but he’s always going to be pretty limited in what he can do.
Neustrom’s stats are not awesome, agreed. He is not currently listed on many top 30 lists, but he should be in the back end somewhere as an older guy who is beginning to make positive strides. On the other hand, it’s only one good season.
For me, he looks to be a solid defender, but not a gold glove candidate. Neustrom had some really legendary home runs this year, one around 480 feet in Hartford. Many others that were in the 450 foot range from what I have read over the year. The 31 2B, 16 HR and 83 RBI’s are not gaudy, but very solid numbers from a guy who is 25 next month. The .748 OPS in AAA is tough when half of it is at Norfolk. He had an .830 in Bowie.
His fly ball rate has increased, which I find very encouraging, considering his power, which has to be a 70 raw power grade. The reports on him have been that he has great raw power, but did not get to it in games and settles for making lesser contact. The K% is at about 25% in AAA, but was much less in lower leagues. The BB% was 11.3 in AAA, and around 10% otherwise. Solid numbers. It appears he is responding to coaching and driving the ball much more. He stayed healthy for the season, which was important.
I see a steady performer, maybe unspectacular compared to Stowers, but a steady corner guy. Maybe a bit of a platoon guy, who gets some DH time as well. What I like about him is he drives in runs. He finds a way to be productive. If you have a runner on 3B early in the game with one out, Neustrom will hit a ground ball to 2B or a sac fly to the OF. He will get the run home. His general line each game was 1-4 with at least an RBI.
If we have to choose between Neustrom and Stewart, it is an easy choice for me. Neustrom does not walk as much as Stewart, but he does not miss late on every fastball he sees. Neustrom could probably benefit from a bit more time in AAA, and perhaps a June call up.
Stewart is a DH at this point, with very little power numbers to show for his 608 PA’s. To be consistently late on average fastballs and not make the adjustments all season long was just maddening to me. There is no excuse for that for a professional hitter. Perhaps I am overly aggravated by this and he can turn out a productive season in 2022. A lot would have to happen for him to have that opportunity.
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16 minutes ago, wildcard said:
I will not disagree with the assessment of Stewart's mediocrity. The question of what keeps him on the 40 man roster is that is cheap, optionable and that Stowers and Neustrom still need some time in the minors. That time could be as little as a couple of months of the 2022 season.
Elias could replace Stewart with someone off the waiver wire. That is certainly possible. However, I do see the need for an outfielder that can step in if Hays and/or Santander are hurt early in the season. McKenna concerns me with his bat. A pitcher with a good fastball will take around three pitches to send McKenna bat to the bench. He is good on defense but I have no faith in his offense. Nevin has not shown he can even hit AAA pitching.
So whether it is Stewart or someone else I see a need for a backup outfielder.
For me, the 40 man spot is the issue. Obviously, there are many moving parts. Do they keep Mancini and Santander? If they are traded or non-tendered, then perhaps they keep Stewart for the time being as a DH. That is the only way I can see him staying. Being a LH hitter, on a team that is heavily RH helps him. Even with all that, the OF talent has him on the outside looking in.
McKenna hit really well in AAA, and we need to find out if that has any merit. Playing everyday would allow us to find out. Nevin might be a guy who fills a gap instead of Stewart, but again, like you said, he did not hit well in AAA. But there was progress there. Tyler has to get stronger, but if Mancini is moved I can see him on the roster because of his defensive flexibility. Jahmai Jones may end up playing some OF as well.
It is too bad, but I think DJ does not deserve to have a chair when the music stops, unless Mike Elias makes trades/moves from the OF depth. He might be a mediocre bench hitter (replacement level), with no defensive value on another roster. In Baltimore, he is simply surrounded by players better, or project better, than him and they are pushing him aside.
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It is long overdue. Something as simple as signing a lease for most people, is problematic for minor league players. It will be interesting to follow different teams’ solutions.
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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:
Stewart.
I have to agree completely. He will be 28 next month. He has not done anything to keep his 40 man spot over several younger guys with actual upside. Stewart was supposed to have some OBP, which he does because he walks. BA does not mean very much these days, but his line for his career is .214/,329/.403/.732. How much longer are we supposed to give him? His K% in 2020 was 33.9, which was slightly improved in 2021 at 28%. He had a 94 WRC in 2021 as opposed to a very respectable 123 in 2020, albeit a SSS and propped up by a hot 10 days. He is a terrible OF, evidenced by his -9 DRS in 2021, according to Fangraphs.
He plays a power position in corner OF, but provides very little power. I would rather play McKenna out there, even Nevin, over Stewart, until Stowers and Neustrom are ready. I cannot justify keeping him on the 40 man with so many younger prospects that could be claimed in the R5.
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Lost in this trade was the opportunity to evaluate our young starters. But, Kremer and Akin regressed, Zimm was injured, Baumann injured, Lowther and Wells got the yo-yo treatment, and Pitching Coach Chris Holt disappeared for a month.
Jones hit well for about two months before struggling after an injury. He likely isn’t an average defender at 2B, but he is not awful. I still believe he will hit.
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15 minutes ago, SteveA said:
As long as he is making the minimum and we have many more guys that have less promise that we can cut.
That’s probably true, considering he will not be arbitration eligible at this rate until he’s 40.
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3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
Agree with you about the mullett for sure. I think we are in the minority on that. If he is not putting forth effort in training and preparation I would be fine with getting rid of him, but have no basis for speculating that is the case. Bundy also had a similar track record until he turned a corner and became a productive MLB starter, albeit not at the level we had hoped.
Bundy sputtered for 2-3 years, not nine. IDK, I have personally had enough. Waging my campaign. “Dump the mullet!” I know he is a favorite of many here, but how long do we have to wait to do the inevitable? He is a favorite based on a glimpse of what he could be.
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5 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
I wouldn't do anything drastic with Hunter Harvey. I don't have super high expectations but he has been good when healthy and you never know when a pitcher with a history of injuries can turn things around. Bundy had elbow and shoulder injuries and came back to be an effective starting pitcher. Harvey has had a bunch of injuries but one was a total freak injury and they have all been different so we aren't talking about the same chronic problem. Definitely worth a 40 man spot IMO.
Have you looked at his career stats? He is semi-healthy one of every three years. And that one year is on strict innings limits and rest in between. For me, it is about his preparation. I am obviously just speculating, as I have no inside knowledge of his situation. But the majority of his injuries in recent years are preventable with proper training today. It is certainly more than just bad luck.
He has three seasons above 25 innings in his 9 year career. 87 innings in 2014, 32 innings in 2018 and 82 in 2019. In his three seasons in MLB, he has 23.2 innings. How long do we keep that non productive pitcher with promise? We need people that actually post up. He and Kremer went downhill about the time they worried more about their hair than their results between the lines. I really hate mullets!
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harvehu01.shtml
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3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
Tyler Nevin is another player that doesn't do much for me. Appears to not have a position and hit .230 at Norfolk. I think I'd rather have Bannon.
Yusniel Diaz has to be on the list too, unfortunately.
I can understand your thoughts. At first glance a month ago, I was wondering the same. I do think Nevin will hit for a bit more power and better average. He needs to get stronger. If Mancini gets traded, Nevin could end up on the roster as a corner utility. He can play an average 1B, a tick below average LF and is said to be better than they thought at 3B.
I want to start by saying I think Bannon can hit somewhat better than he did in 2021. But his bat will not carry the rest of his game. I think Bannon’s profile is very limited at this point. He is well-below average at 2B. He is clearly not a SS, so he is strictly a 3B. Not a utility profile that Elias and Hyde like. And he is not even an average defensive 3B. At 5-07, and squatty frame, I just do not see it. To me, he has gotten too muscular and it looks like it has affected his mobility some. And other than a 10 day stretch, what did he do this year to deserve to stay on the roster? I know he was injured for some of that, but yikes. He was more or less a smaller RH version of DJ Stewart. Is Bannon better than Gutierrez? Not for me, not close. His ceiling to me would be Dan Uggla, without playing 2B. He might be a guy that gets traded in a minor deal.
Diaz gets one more chance, I think. It may depend on his AFL stint as to his fate.
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11 hours ago, Jagwar said:
Yeah... I'd say that I would love the O's to have a list of drafted pitchers like that. Have the O's even drafted that many successful pitchers over the last 30 years?
True, but none of them have been there in years. And which of them beyond Price has been productive after they left TB?
The current model they seem to like is to make several trades and acquire talent they can improve upon and flip for more talent. They sign a Charlie Morton, a Rich Hill, a Chris Archer, etc…and get them to pitch well. They have had several successful reclaimation projects. The trade they made for Archer to get back Austin Meadows, Shane Baz, and Tyler Glasnow…good grief! But then they sign Wander Franco. They get Patino for Snell. The list goes on.
They are a regular season juggernaut. They got nothing from Lowe and Cruz against Boston. Franco, Arozarena, Kiermier and Meadows showed well, but not enough.
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4 minutes ago, waroriole said:
I’d rather have Harvey and Kriske than Dorrian.
I assume it’s Hunter you want to keep? For me, that ship has sailed. All the talent in the world, and it produces no value between the lines. But maybe they see Kriske as someone who they can get something out of. I did not think much of what I saw, but that was a really small sample. I do think Krehbiel may stick around as a useful set up guy. He has some nice late action on his pitches, and a quick arm.
The real question for me is, what does Mike Elias think of Felix Bautista, Cody Sedlock, Blaine Knight, Gray Fenter, Cameron Bishop and Nick Vespi? And does he like them more than some guys currently on the roster. I think Bautista should be protected, despite the walks. And Sedlock may have figured some things out and learned how to pitch with his off speed more. Blaine Knight looked great in AA, not so much in AAA. Fenter came on late in AA. Bishop really showed flashes before getting injured. His AFL stint should help evaluate him. Vespi is in a similar situation. A decent LH out of the pen with the uncertainty of Scott and Fry might be intriguing.
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24 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Ciuffo is on the 40 man roster. Not eligible for arbitration yet. He has 3 options left so the can send him to the minors if they want while keeping him on the 40 man. The question is do the O's value him enough to keep him on the 40 man roster. They would have to put him on waivers to get him off the 40 man roster. If he clears waivers he is eligible to be a minor league FA if he declares. At that point the O's would have to sign him to keep in the organization.
Ciuffo is an interesting talent. They seem to like him. Do we keep Wynns and Ciuffo? Or just Wynns? Ciuffo’s track record and history of drug suspensions make for a risky 40 man keep.
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14 hours ago, wildcard said:
You mean like they did with Grayson?
Pitchers are different, especially after the COVID loss of 2020. And they may have lost confidence in AAA pitching coach Steenstra. And he did move up one level from Aberdeen earlier. Grayson is 21, Dorrian is 25.
Bottom line, I am not sure he is protected or not. That is what I said originally. I would probably not, if it was me making the decision. He is 25 yoa with one solid season in AA. At this point, I cannot say he projects to keep doing that. Perhaps they believe in him like you do and they protect him. So be it. I just think they would have moved him up if they liked him that much like Neustrom, Stowers, Rutschman and Westburg.
Roster spots are going to be tight for fringe prospects.
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2 hours ago, RZNJ said:
Why does a team take Dorrian? To backup 1B and 3B, or platoon at those positions? It's questionable how his bat plays at AAA let alone the majors. Is he seen as a legit prospect by objective sources? His future at 3B is questionable. He's low risk to be taken.
Maybe there will be a team that covets a LH corner INF bat. Maybe a NL team. That said, I doubt he would get selected. I doubt he is put on the 40 man. The Orioles are starved for LH bats, but I don’t think they see him as a piece. If they did, I think they would have moved him up to AAA in July or early August.
2021 Orioles #8 Prospect - Jordan Westburg - SS/3B
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I did not get any impression you are down on him. Your thoughts are grounded and realistic on this. Blood and Elias will do what is best for his personal development. I just think if he can stick at SS, there is value to pairing him with Adley sooner than later.