Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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Hyde is not perfect, but I think he is a very solid and qualified baseball guy. The quote from Joe Maddon exemplified why Hyde is the right guy for a young developing group. His patience and sense of humor is a must for the situation they are in. If you are in that clubhouse, you know it isn’t Hyde’s fault.
I just feel really bad for him on a daily basis. This is excruciating to watch. As the manager, it is his fault. It’s his watch, regardless of whether or not Holt’s guru status was directly tied to sticky substances or not. There is no denying that the pitching struggled more so during Holt’s extended absence. And now, they have struggled mightily since the sticky substance crackdown. And the young bats are going to go through slumps. We also have the absolute worst catching group in MLB as well. It isn’t just bad luck that the Orioles are this bad.
The fundamentals are why they left Jones down at AAA as long as they did, and the fan base ate Elias up for months. Personally, I liked the way Jones played last night, despite the clank off his glove in right field. He made several adept plays up the middle and looked to be much improved defensively since 2020. The called strikeouts on close pitches were frustrating to watch, bad calls or not.
In fairness, when people talk about “fundamentals,” you have to mention that this group is made up of a collage of players who are young, many castoffs from other organizations. Even Cedric Mullins had two miscues last night and looked very bad at the plate. There is a reason why they were available. I have no doubt that Sanders and Mansolino work with the players appropriately. They both have great reputations as teachers. A lot of the miscues can be attributed to pressing, or trying to do more than you are capable because you do not believe in your teammates and think you have to be a hero. This group, as a whole, does not take what the game gives them offensively. Austin Hays, I am talking to you, specifically.
I am not sure what will happen with Hyde, and I have wondered about it since the first long losing streak. He may need to leave for his own sanity. No competitor ever wants to hang around where losing is a way of life. I hope he stays, and I hope Mike Elias gives him a roster that can compete more evenly. This is on Elias’ shoulders. Whatever formulas and algorithms they have used for ML pitching evaluation and preparation are out the window when your pitchers regularly throw 91 mph fastballs middle-middle. No genius or philosophy can overcome that inability to execute.
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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:
Who is going to hold them accountable?
Every time the National media tries it the locals lash out at them. The local media is either owned by the team or cowed by them. Fans are already not coming out.
Who is left? Maybe the State can get involved since their tax revenue is down pretty sharply.
Going to be hard to keep OPACY looking nice if they don't collect any of the taxes that pays for the maintenance.
At some point, ownership group will hold them accountable. They have to do they can have some semblance of integrity in the game.
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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:
ML average pitchers are expensive both in salary and what it would take to get them. I'm not so sure I expect to see prospects for ML trades just yet. A better version of Matt Harvey, maybe. A salary dump, maybe. I'm not expecting anything significant.
I don’t have names at the moment, but there will be opportunities to acquire pitching. Even if it is a reliever or two. I know it isn’t cheap, but they have depth to send.
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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:
I was about the play around with the 40 man. I am pretty sure I can cut 10-15 guys off of there with no problem. lol
Definitely a ripple-up effect. I just think they’ll move some inventory of depth to acquire actual ML average pitching. They really have to at this point. The sales of pitchforks in the Baltimore area have increased in the past month or two. I have given them a pass up to this point, but starting in 2022 I believe there should be some accountability. There needs to be marked improvement in the ML roster.
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Thanks for putting that together. It looks like you omitted DL Hall. Some of the placements are a bit aggressive, not that I do not think Cowser could handle AA. Elias has shown he believes in a true progression, but I will not argue with you on that. I am sure others will... LOL. It is interesting to see prospects at all positions throughout the minors at each stop. A nice change. I wonder if Elias will trade from his depth in the minors to begin building the ML team. There is a large group of R5 eligible guys this year, and some are very prominent prospects. I can make a case for about 10 guys right now that should be added.
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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:
It's been three years. He's had plenty of time to acquire players, not actual prospects but players, to fill out those rosters.
I see a LOT of folks blaming Dan for everything. This is kinda ridiculous. Elias spent a lot of capital his first year here building up the bulk numbers of the International player base. Year three you should be owing the staffing of your short season clubs.
I don't see many blaming Dan for much of anything these days. A fair observation is that when Elias took over, the minor league system had no real international presence. It is fair to say that the Orioles minor league system was barren with athletic up-the-middle prospects. It is fair to say that the system has changed in those ways dramatically since 2018 when Elias took over.
Another fair observation is that DD and Rajsich had some solid drafts from 2016-2018 taking players like Austin Hays, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Mike Baumann and Drew Rom. However, there are not many left in the organization from those drafts. I believe it is reasonable to blame ownership for the lack of international prospects. Dan had always been very active in the international scene in his career as an executive before Baltimore. It was huge in his previous success.
It is fair to say that the emphasis on development and instruction is very different than the previous regime. It is also fair to say that Dan did not have the resources to fund a playoff team and to build an elite talent pipeline comparable to what Elias has done. It seems that it had to be one or the other under Dan. We'll see what balance Elias can achieve in the years to come.
It is what it is, and the minor league system is leaps and bounds better than it was in the Winter of 2018.
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I noticed the same thing. I want to believe they will add players that will increase competitiveness at the ML level. He certainly was cautious how he said it, so there was no guarantees. But if you look at how things are lining up, yes, I expect Elias to make some moves to build a team that is interesting next year and competing for a playoff spot in 2023.
It would make sense to add some mid-range veteran pitchers, and maybe a legitimate SS. If you follow the Padres’ model, Story and Correa will be very expensive FA’s. But signing one of them would solidify the defense and add a legit ML hitter to the lineup. They could trade Mancini for a solid package, if there is one out there, and replace him with Mountcastle at 1B. They could trade some of the depth for more pitching. There are many ways to go from here, but they’ll need to make some trades more than anything. I do not really expect them to sign Correa or Story, but an argument could be made to do it. They certainly have the payroll space.
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5 hours ago, SteveA said:
Didn't Ellis take Hartman's 40 man spot???
Zack Burdi took his spot. Ellis took the spot vacated by Cesar Valdez.
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Just now, RZNJ said:
Good post. I don't disagree with anything you say here. Never did. I was just wrong about which regime signed Acevedo.
I did not mean to post that at you, just adding to what you and Corn were saying.
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On 8/18/2021 at 9:50 PM, RZNJ said:
Pretty sure Acevedo and Moises Ramirez, who is also doing quite well, were both signed under the previous regime.
Moises Ramirez was signed during the Duquette era on 8/28/18 Moises Ramirez Stats, Fantasy & News | MiLB.com.
Stiven Acevedo was signed during the Elias era on 4/8/19 Stiven Acevedo Stats, Fantasy & News | MiLB.com.
I happen to agree with Corn on this one. When Duquette arrived, he lauded his ties to DR and Venezuela and expected to dive deep into the International marketplace. Why not? He had tremendous success there and was very astute at player acquisition and development in Montreal and Boston. Ownership absolutely tied his hands there. Dan made many mistakes, sure, but the lack of International prospects and the Davis contract were not his fault. Both of those things really hurt the Orioles for many years. I think most here know all of that too well.
Duquette also signed OF Kevin Infante, 1B/OF Josue Cruz, and a few others in a flurry of International signings he made at the end of his time in August and September 2018.
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31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
If that is all it takes half the 40 man would be gone.
The truth is really painful right now.
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10 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
I'm a little surprised Westburg isn't Top 100 the way he has played. Also surprised they still have Gunnar ahead of him in our Top 30.
I think MLBpipeline sees Westburg's scouting grades at 50-55 across the board. I think they see him as a high floor steady guy, but still a fairly higher ceiling. I think they are selling his hit tool and raw power short. His arm is the only 55 grade on their scouting report. I think we will see them re-evaluate that in the off-season. I think we will see Westburg improve his power in the offseason.
With Gunnar, he is more exciting a prospect with 60 power/arm and 55 hit tool. His in game power is more apparent right now and he is only 20 in high A. Yes, he is struggling right now, but he is having good at bats and should see better results before the end of the year.
Just my $.02, but Colton Cowser is going to climb much higher in these rankings by this time next year. He'll add some strength and loft to his swing and take off. I do not know that he'll stay a CF, but maybe. His bat to ball skills are just really impressive. I also think Coby Mayo is going to join him. Mayo is a dude! Stowers strikeouts are ridiculous, 122 in 366 plate appearances. That said, he is remarkably patient and productive.
I am a little surprised to see Adam Hall at #15 and to not see Rob Neustrom in these rankings at all. Tony is a lot more accurate with his power rankings.
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Leyba had a great opportunity, and he did not capitalize on it. Too bad.
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11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
His statcast info concerns me. He had very low EV in 2019 and has a very low EV now. Hard to have consistent success when you aren't hitting the ball hard that often.
That’s fair. He did just get back, and has barely played for two years. I liked where he was last Spring, when he was driving the ball gap to gap. His hands were loaded in a much more powerful position. The current iteration does remind me of 2019. He just never seems to get his hands back enough before launch. His trigger needs to be sooner from that pre-pitch relaxed posture.
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Saying Adley took an under slot deal is technically true. It is not in the common usage for draft talk, and in that way it is kinda silly to say it. All 1-1 picks have signed under slot, I believe, under the current CBA. Adley was the BPA.
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On 8/15/2021 at 11:32 AM, crowmst3k! said:
Hopefully the Orioles can get some value out of the pen from some of these failed starters. Or...maybe they figure out how to be effective in the rotation.
The good thing about guys getting shelled this year: it doesn't matter. But if they get shelled, hopefully they learn from their mistakes and work on improvements.
Agreed. When you have average stuff, at best, you’d better have great command and learn how to sequence. You have to pitch.
This year matters if they are not mentally tough enough. If their confidence is so shaken that they will not challenge hitters, that is a problem.
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40 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I guess it's cool they are in the process of catching up...assuming that the Rays aren't currently advancing in some other fashion.
Are the O's running with the pack? Are they ahead of some teams? Still behind?
This is certainly good news but I'm not sure how good.
Yeah, those questions are hard to answer right now. How long does the learning process take?
The biggest gains are always in the beginning of something new. We’ve seen that in the minor league performance gains since 2019. But, when those prospects, such as Zimmerman, Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Wells, etc…have come up, they are getting shelled. My question is, would Elias have brought those guys listed into the organization? Are they equipped with what Elias and Holt are looking for? I think Zimmermann and Kremer are guys for them, but they have to get mentally tougher. The others are probably not much more than back-end shuttle guys, maybe bullpen middle guys. Maybe.
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23 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:
I think we’re going to see a big amount of turnover on the 40 man roster over the offseason. Between FA’s, non tenders, trades, and DFAs.
The promotions from the FCL to Delmarva could impact this. If Cowser was promoted it makes it more realistic for him to be considered for the AFL.
With Cowser, he might be a candidate, but I think they will want him to get into instructs and work on some swing changes to add some loft. And they will want to get him into a conditioning routine for the off season as well. He makes great contact and he is more advanced than many thought, but they will want him to be able to drive the ball in the air more.
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I don’t think we should send any AAA guys to the AFL. If you want a AAA guy to get reps, have them play Winter ball in the DR or PR. It s a higher level of comp.
Just another thought, but Elias may be making a few deals with prospects going out. The AFL is also a chance to showcase those players, maybe 1-2, he may be willing to move. The roster decisions prior to the R5 draft are going to be interesting.
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It depends on who is healthy at the end of the season, and needs more reps. I would not send Adley. As a catcher, and I know he has played 1B and DH’d some, but I just rest his knees and get him ready for AAA and to make his debut in July 2022. I would like to send Westburg and Henderson, but I might want to rest them this off-season. Just get them into an off-season conditioning/lifting program.
I do like the idea of sending Terrin Vavra, Cadyn Grenier, Kyle Stowers and Hudson Haskin. Joey Ortiz would be great, but I would not think he will be ready after labrum surgery on his left shoulder. Maverick Handley might be a guy to send. Maybe Patrick Dorrian or Zach Watson. Adam Hall is another I might consider, but he might need to focus on a program to add more muscle to his frame.
Pitchers are going to be interesting. With so many watching their innings from the COVID stoppage, hard to say yet. I would not think we send any real top 30 type prospects. Maybe Cody Sedlock, Gray Fenter and Cameron Bishop.
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When Mike Elias took over, the Orioles were a mess throughout the organization. Administratively, personnel-wise, technologically, infrastructure…complete disarray. Whatever people think, there is only just so much money for a team on the lower end of mid-market. The contracts of Chris Davis, and even Alex Cobb, really hamstrung the payroll flexibility.
That said, these teams were not designed to win. Absolutely true. It was by design, based on the fact that they could not afford to spend at a level to make them compete for a playoff run. So spending any money that takes away from your long range goals seems a bad idea to me.
I think it is an important distinction to say that these teams were designed to lose, rather than to say they were not designed to win. Hyde had these guys competitive the first two years. They lost a lot of games, but they competed on most nights. This year, very polar performance. Some decent, but mostly just bad. When Holt left the team, for whatever reason, this team played awful baseball. The pitching really suffered, and it has not come back, especially the pen. And the sticky stuff probably has had a big effect on the few decent options in our pen. Anything that has an effect on the grip, and the spin rates of moderate arm talent, is going to affect the pen on this team. Holt put a lot of emphasis on high spin rates and pitching up in the zone. So, now what?
Going forward, despite the recent hit pieces by Olney and Rosenthal, it should be time for Mike Elias to get his GM on. Haters are always there. It is time to put together a team built to compete for a playoff run. And I think that has been the plan all along. It’s the last year of Davis’ contract, I believe. He held on to the main players at the deadline, though I still think Trey may be dealt in the off-season. They certainly could sign him to an extension, but I do not think it is an obvious need.
Elias needs to move some of his depth for pitching help that makes sense for this team. A few veteran pitchers to help the rotation and pen would go a long way. There will be many young players in need of R5 protection, so it is time. We cannot rely on Means and four rookies or second year pitchers in the rotation. Make Akin, Kremer, Baumann, Bradish, Zimmerman, Wells, and all of the rest actually earn their way. Hold them accountable and stop holding their hands when they come up. No more mass player development at the ML level would be a welcome change.
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I agree that DJ has had ample opportunity to perform, and he simply has not gotten the job done offensively or defensively. He should have claimed the majority of the DH at bats this season. He is not going to get any more athletic, and they should hide his glove from him. His eye at the plate is excellent, sure. In this season, he is almost always late on the fastball and appears to be caught in-between. Not sure why. Is he unable to recognize pitches? The bat is not quick, but I wouldn't say he has a slow bat either. The hands can work, and they should. For me, it just looks to be all mental. He cannot be sitting on the fastball right now, but maybe he should. What does he have to lose at this point? He should sit dead red and never get off it.
If you consistently cannot hit even an average fastball, you are not a major league player.
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I did not see much of the games the past two nights. It seems like Mateo is as advertised. He may be a better hitter, mechanically anyway. He might be a bit rusty, and that is understandable. He has time to show what he can do.
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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
I think Tony goes a little overboard with the criticism of not finding good players off the scrap heap. Those guys are few and far between.
That being said, I think the overall point is spot on. Elias has done nothing to help the ML Team as of yet. None of the trades he made has impacted the ML team. The FA signings have done nothing to very little to help.
The trades he has made for MiL players seem to have been good ones and have helped boost the ratings of the farm system but so what? Everyone gets so excited about the farm system rankings but really, at the end of the day, BFD. From 2009-2012, BA ranked our farm system 8,9, 21, 21. And those early rankings were thanks to players like Matusz who did very little in the majors. Those are hardly spectacular numbers and yet, the team won. Why? Because they hit on some cheaper ML talent and did well on some trades.
So far, Elias is the opposite and while building the system is obviously important and a good sign for the future (and don’t forget a lot of these guys were already here and Adley was delivered to him on a silver platter), it means nothing right now.
Elias wasn’t the GM is Houston. He wasn’t the final decision maker. I say that because people act like he was. They talk about the Houston success but remember he had a lot of help and Houston did a lot on the ML level, especially with their pitching staff, that vaulted them to a title. Elias had very little to do with that.
In other words, Elias has done a great job of being a “minor league GM” but he has proven nothing in terms of being a major league GM. This offseason is the time to really start judging him. I can give him a pass for the first year since he started late. I think he should have done more for 2020 but circumstances made it harder. There are no excuses for this offseason. I don’t want to hear about the CBA either. It’s time to start making real moves and showing us that you can build a winning team because right now, winning in the minors is all he has shown us he can do.
An excellent post, Rob. Very fair legitimate criticism. I agree with everything you wrote.
It is time to build the major league team. The pitching has to be addressed. It would not surprise me to see Elias trade some minor leaguers (a few) this off-season. With many becoming rule 5 eligible, it seems to make some sense.
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Santander in August
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Santander is getting back to where he should be. I’m not sure what he gets in arbitration, but it should not be too big a hit considering his struggles in 2021, injury or not. He should definitely be back unless a great return is offered.
Stewart should be out, and McKenna up. Neustrom has a shot to make the club out of Spring Training as well, but likely will be sent down to AAA to begin the year. Not because they are gaming his contract status, just to get more experience.
Mancini should be moved for a reasonable deal. His salary should be $10 million plus in 2022. They have Mountcastle at 1B, and can use any number of others at DH. They need that money to bring in pitchers and a solid veteran back up catcher.
I think it is possible Sevy comes back, and I hate the idea. Wynns is better behind the plate, generally, but his bat is anemic. Cumberland’s best tool is getting HBP, and below average defense. Ciuffo has been hurt nearly all of 2021, so not one to count on. Catching is a disaster, until Adley gets here. They have to address this. Sevy is a losing catcher. His immaturity and lack of desire greatly hampers this team.