Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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Mateo has 80 grade speed, according to Baseball America. I just read the write-up in the BA 2020 Prospect Handbook on Mateo. They talked about his dramatic ups and downs, his inconsistency on offense and defense. He was the preseason #8 prospect in the Oakland system. They cited his athleticism, plus arm strength and ability to play multiple positions.
I am paraphrasing here, but essentially they describe him as enigmatic, maybe even erratic. It said evaluators cannot figure him out. They said that best case scenario might be .250 with 15 HR’s.
it is just one write-up, but it might be one of the strangest ones I have ever read on BA. None of the other articles I have read were quite so critical of a guy in their top 100 in 2019.
Who knows what to expect. Why not see what you have on this. I think it is a good move. He only has to be a little better than Valaika, not too much to ask.
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4 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:
Elias hasn't exactly dazzled anyone with this waiver wire acquisitions but this one I like a lot.
Um, ok, did you just use the terms dazzle and waiver wire acquisitions? C’mon man, that is ridiculous. Waiver claims rarely do much at all, maybe become a borderline regular. No GM dazzles with waiver claims.
You’re anti-Elias rants are predictable and tiresome.
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29 minutes ago, emmett16 said:
He did change his swing and is putting ball in play more. He has aslo increased his Barrel %, Avg. Exit Velocity, & Max Exit Velocity. He struggles on off-speed pitches and it looks like he's making that a focus this year to work on. His foot speed and defense metrics are down a bit suggesting he may be playing hurt a bit. K rate is up a bit and BB rate down a bit which makes sense as he's gone through league a couple times now. It's time for him to make an adjustment. Will be interesting to see how he holds up these last 8 weeks.
All of that is great info. Thanks for that. The biggest issue with him making contact has been swing decisions. The strike to ball slider used to really eat him up. He has gotten stronger as well. His power production is much less than before, despite the increased exit velo. The bigger issue for me is just the balance. He falls off on nearly every swing. And he does seem to be pull happy.
Everything he has ever done is hard to judge due to small sample size. I am just going by what I see.
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Hays’ swing is much different than in 2019. He is off balance, more of a slasher now. I agree that he has never been a platoon split guy like this, but he is not the same hitter he was before.
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18 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:
The QO was 18.9 this season. It is based off of the top 125 mlb contract averages per season.
Ah, thanks. We have been so irrelevant for so many years that I forgot how all of that actually worked, lol. I wonder if the CBA expiring impacts that.
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18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Cough *Davis* cough.
Yeah, I know. That may not even be all ownership. They have saved some money with his injuries the past few seasons with the insurance. Maybe they release him this offseason, finally. They do need the roster spot.
As II BuonO said, I was referring to the scouting and player development world.
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1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:
Why? That would probably be 17-18 million. He can be brought back as a free agent if the team is impressed with him down the stretch.
I do not know how that works. Would that amount be for any free agent? He certainly does not merit that kind of money. Not really sure what he would want to come back, or what the Orioles would be willing to offer. Personally, I can see them working something out and bringing him back next year. Maybe Holt is
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I think Richie Martin and Jahmai Jones do come up to Baltimore some time this year. The Leyba experiment was worthwhile, but he is just not a major league player, even for a last place team. Leyba may be DFA for Richie to come back onto the 40 man roster from the 60 day IL. I think they could just move Richie up very soon, and forego the whole AAA seasoning thing. Play him everyday at SS. Move Urias to 2B and have Valaika be the UT guy.
But, they seem committed to Urias at SS for the duration of 2021. So, maybe they bring up Jones first and keep developing him as the everyday 2B. If he cannot make the plays he should make, that will adversely affect the pitching situation. They might be wanting to keep the positive momentum going into 2022.
I do not know where else they could go, without a waiver claim or similar addition to the organization. Bannon has had a terrible year. He has been so bad that he could be DFA and/or traded to remove from the roster in the offseason to make room for the Rule 5 crop. He has been that bad.
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I was just coming here to post that. I was listening to Jim Callis on the MLB Pipeline Podcast "Deadline Days." At about the 30 minute mark, he mentioned it.
MLB Pipeline on Apple Podcasts
I follow UF quite a bit, and my son played against Jud in high school. He made some adjustments after a very poor start, but his K rate initially was awful. Lots of tools and all, but honestly, I would have not liked paying him $3 million. He may turn out to be a great pick by Boston, but I think there is more risk with him. And I really like the Norby, Trimble, Rhodes and Willems picks. Those certainly would not have happened if they took Fabian.
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2 hours ago, Frobby said:
First of all, I’m pretty well convinced that Urias can hit well enough to be a starting middle infielder in the majors. His hands are pretty quick, his strike zone judgment is pretty good, he’s got some pop, and his contact skills look solid.
MLB: .294/.362/.429 in 196 PA
Mexico: .312/.398/.465 in 2334 PA
Minors: .268/.353/.423 in 1223 PA
His major league track record is short, and I expect he’ll come down some. But the profile has been pretty consistent. His .294 BA is a little higher than his .277 xBA but his .337 wOBA is a little lower than his .349 xWOBA. I don’t see much reason to think he isn’t a .750 OPS guy in the majors, maybe more, and you’ll certainly take that from a 2B/SS.
Defensively I’m not completely convinced. 6 errors (4 throwing, 2 fielding) in 268 innings (about 30-31 games) at SS this year, and 3 errors (all throwing) at 2B in 106 innings (11-12,games) at 2B. That would be 30+ errors at SS or 40+ at 2B over a full season. The advanced metrics this year:
At SS: -2 Rtot, -3 Rdrs, -3 OAA, +0.8 UZR
At 2B: 0 Rtot, +2 Rdrs, +2 OAA, +0.9 UZR
The sample sizes are small, so looking at his bigger track record in Mexico and the minors:
At SS: .955 fielding% Mexico (283 starts), .954 Minors (25 starts). Major league average is .970.
At 2B: .981 Mexico (240 starts), .978 Minors (155 games). Major league average is .981.
Overall, I think the statistical picture is subpar defensive SS, decent defensive 2B.
Putting numbers aside, it’s pretty clear Urias’ arm is a bit erratic. I’d also say his range to his left is a bit below average, and I don’t think his “clock”/instincts are up to standard for a starting SS.
All that said, he’s put up 1.2 rWAR/1.2 fWAR in 61 major league games. That’s certainly good enough to roll with Urias the rest of the season and see how he does with continued regular playing time at SS. We can move him to 2B next year if we find a better defensive SS.
Overall, a good story from 2021.
That is quality work, Frobby! I have liked his hit tool since his brief look in 2020. Hyde said it best recently, in that he needed to show he could get the barrel on the ball out front and show he could pull the ball. He has shown that in his return. I love the way he hits the ball to RF.
Two of his throwing errors that I have seen were balls he appeared to bounce intentionally. Both should have been dug out by Mancini. A good first baseman makes those plays. Things that do not show up in his fielding percentage are his feeds to 2B for a potential DP. Those have been off, and cost the team 3-4 DP’s in the past two weeks. The feeds were good enough to get the out at 2B, and our 2B were not able to complete a DP. Not that Valaika and Leyba do him any favors in the way they turn, but it was clear the feeds were off and made the difference. That might be fixable with more reps.
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4 hours ago, Philip said:How’s his glove?
The glove/hands are actually pretty good. He has made some fantastic picks in the past few weeks. The few errors I have seen have been on throws. Sometimes, he throws with poor footwork. Especially from the hole, I’d like to see him stick the right foot and step into a throw. He seems to have about an average arm, but settles for a quick release often over a power step. His feeds to 2B are not really poor, but better feeds would have had 3-4 more double plays in the past week. The range is about average, maybe just a tick below.
Overall, he makes the plays he should make. Not really a slick defender, but more solid average.
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Well, there goes the Galvis for Leyba thought. Leyba is overweight, and has no range. He has taken the most disinterested swings I have seen in a while. They took a rightful look, and it’s not good. So, now what? Do they just bring up Richie? Mason McCoy?
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Rajsich did a good job as scouting director. Some early round misses, but many lower round hits. Jordan had some hits, and some high pick misses that really set us back. But, what if these scouting directors had our current player development staff and the organizational relationships that exist now? Were the picks bad? In some cases, yep. Could others have been developed better? Yep. We’ll never know, but I never blame the scouting director as much as I do the GM’s. I often wondered how much those scouting directors dictated the first few rounds. Or was it ownership, McPhail and Duquette trying to address team needs.
Elias gutted the organization and built it back up with the idea that scouts and PD folks work together through the entire process. They know what kinds of players they develop best and present value for this organization. And they seem to have autonomy to make baseball decisions without ownership interference.
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Pavolony played much of the season with a hairline fracture in his hand. He hit better with the injury, mostly against SEC competition. Some big game performances. He had a good offensive line going in 2020 before COVID and they played very good competition early. Connor was the 91st ranked HS player in the country, according to Perfect Game, out of Woodstock, Ga.. He was a 2nd team College pre-season All-American according to D1 Baseball.
I watched some video on him. His pop times are consistently around 1.8. Quick hands and feet. He is about a 7.0 60 yard runner, which is not bad at all for a catcher. He could play corner INF or OF with that. The swing is smooth with some loft. No longer collapses the back side. He can get more from his lower half.
I like this pick very much for a 7th rounder. I think he’ll hit fairly well for a catcher, not just a defense guy.
https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=419661
https://utsports.com/sports/baseball/roster/connor-pavolony/13175
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3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
Agreed, let's get the subject back to Westburg.
Westburg is a priority player over everyone above him (AAA and AA) at SS but there is value in letting guys like Grenier and Martin eventually get their ABs. Martin should be moved around a lot since he's probably looked at as a utility guy though there is still some possibilities he could hit enough and end up at 2B. Martin is similar to Diaz, Hays, Santander and Stewart in that he's pretty injury prone.
Westburg is 23 years old so it would not hurt for him to get some PAs in AA over the rest of this season. AS it was pointed out, if 2020 had occurred, the hope would be that he would have started 2021 in AA so it's probably time to give him those PAs there.
Watching Westburg, he seems much more comfortable at SS than 3B and he has the tools to stay there. Grenier is more steady overall, but Westburg has the better bat potential by far. It would not hurt Grenier to get some looks at 2B or even some looks at 3B on occasion since his bat may preclude him from being an everyday guy.
I agree with most of this. I’d like to see Westburg get to AA in the next week or two. It will be interesting to see what happens with Grenier and Ortiz, who are better defenders with emerging bats. Curious how much the organization values defense over offense at SS.
Minor thing, but Westburg is 22.4 years of age according to Fangraphs.
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Lawlar has not signed with Arizona. Rocker has an elbow issue. Maybe Elias and Ciolek know what they’re doing after all.
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This whole discussion of different balls for MLB and AAA vs. the other MiLB leagues is odd. An MLB ball is used for an average of what, two pitches? How many balls do they go through in a game? It’s ridiculous how much money they spend. MLB BP/cage balls are reused, but they are actually cleaned by a machine often. I know this because I have gotten hundreds of these BP balls, which are of a slightly lower grade than game balls, from guys that work for clubs in MLB Spring Training complexes. I still have several buckets of them. The balls take a pounding for months. You would think that teams would want their prospects to make it easier for pitchers to ascend to MLB.
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On 7/14/2021 at 1:28 PM, survivedc said:
Two-way players are hot right now. Let’s try him at pitcher and catcher.
Also, no way did that batter go around on that strikeout call.
I would be angry if they tried him at both. A good recipe for a TJ surgery. Stick the big fella at catcher. Some 1.8 pop times and pretty good feet back there. We’ll see if that lasts.
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3 hours ago, waynebug said:
Coby Mayo HAS ONLY played for FCL Black. I check the box scores daily. Only one error too !!! I believe.
For some reason the Orioles Black is loaded with the better prospects. I think they are 10 and 7.
And Orioles Orange has lost 18 out of 19 games. And clearly has the less talented and most inexperienced team.
Yes, I know. Wrong thread, but thanks for putting that IN CAPS.
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9 hours ago, Frobby said:
Not in the DSL, he didn’t. He’s in the FCL.
Wrong thread, sorry. Lol
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5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Plan A was that they were pocketing significant money.
Plan B is that he didn't like the way they spent the money.
He hedges his bets very well. He's covered either way.
Yep, LOL. He now says he doesn't like the players they drafted and spent the money on. All opinions are welcome. I just have to laugh when it unravels, and he sticks to his guns.
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42 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Craig's stats and description (power & speed) certainly are lot more exciting than a potential backup catcher, that's for sure.
I think they will sign each of the draftees. Pavolony is well thought of, and probably would have gone in rounds 3-4 if not for the hand injury. Craig might get around 500k, maybe a bit more. And not that I expect it, the Orioles could go over their slot amount by 5% with no penalty. COC would absolutely be beside himself looking for something else to complain about.
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Coby Mayo switched teams yesterday and hit two homeruns and a single, going 3 for 5.
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
He does get long sometimes but part of it is he subscribes to the theory of "if you swing, swing hard in case you hit something." There is no statcast data available for minor leaguers unfortunately. Right now they get him swinging and missing with a good fastballs up and changeups but a lot of guys are swinging through good fastballs up, that's baseball now. He makes pretty good adjustments though and his swing decisions are pretty solid.
Roger that. I am just curious how adept he is at pulling his hands in and getting short to the ball and catching the inside pitch with the barrel out front. You don't need to swing hard there, just be on time with the barrel, and the ball will go. It used to be, not long ago, that major league pitchers would bust you inside with a big swing like that, although I do not see that as much anymore for some reason.
Valaika DFA. Mateo replaces him
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I’m not starting a fight with you. I rarely reply to you, but a high percentage of your posts are the same tune. We know you don’t like Mike Elias’ decisions on many things. Even when you like the move, and as you said, you do, you have to throw in there something negative about the GM.
We can look into any GM around the league and point to mistakes after three years on the job. I think he has made incredible strides here, overall. And you and I disagree on most things you write about as mistakes, not all. All opinions are welcome here. Maybe just present them in a more mature argument and people will respect you more here. Someone here told me the same thing many years ago, and I have tried to make that happen.