Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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I am not ready to give up on Jahmai Jones yet. My eyes tell me that he should hit line drives from gap to gap after he makes a few adjustments and gets comfortable. The defense was not average, but it wasn't terrible either. Perhaps he ends up a fourth OF type, but I do believe in the bat. A lot of names not listed in the OP go before Jones would. Elias did not pay $10 million in Cobb's salary to give up on Jones this soon.
The first thing that has to happen is to get down to 40 on the 40 man. We are currently at 47 with seven on the 60 day IL. SO, the seven that need to go immediately after the World Series concludes:
- Fernando Abad (free agent)
- Matt Harvey (free agent)
- Spenser Watkins
- Konner Wade
- Thomas Eschelman
- Brooks Kriske
- Hunter Harvey
Yes, that once great prospect who cannot stay healthy long enough to be worth keeping. All of the talent in the world is nothing when you cannot stay healthy. It may be that his preparation is poor in the off season or whatever, but he should not be this injury prone in this day and age. Something else is going on here. For me, it is time to cut him loose and move on.
There is plenty more cuts and/or trades to come. The next group are those I think are most vulnerable for rule 5 protection and new rule 5 picks from other organizations.
- Pedro Severino (non-tender)
- Pat Valaika (non-tender)
- DJ Stewart
- Eric Hanhold
- Travis Lakins Sr.
- Isaac Mattson
- Rylan Bannon
- Richie Martin
- Zach Burdi
Ultimately, this roster should have a lot of turnover through trades, waiver claims and such. Mancini is a likely trade candidate, and probably Santander as well if the return has enough value.
Diplan, Krehbiel and Greene are possible bullpen pieces and I think they have a chance to stay.
The rule 5 additions are going to be interesting. DL Hall, Kyle Bradish, Terrin Vavra, Rob Neustrom, Kevin Smith (despite a poor stint in Norfolk) and Felix Bautista seem certain to be protected. But Ofelky Peralta, Blaine Knight, Cody Sedlock, Cadyn Grenier, Pat Dorrian, Nick Vespi and Cameron Bishop can all make the case to stick. Some of these guys may be traded as well.
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Got 45 the first time, and took it again for a 60. The brain is not what it once was.
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@Moose Milligan really explained the situation well. Several great posts, Moose. Exactly my thoughts. Roch and Meoli are the only guys I really enjoy reading anymore. Maybe Melewski on occasion. But I do not expect much insight or analysis. Twitter has become my main source from accounts like On The Verge, Orioles Statistics, Matt Kremnitzer, and so on.
As far as what questions we want, nothing realistic comes to mind. Elias is not going to answer any difficult question and give away any information that might take away some negotiating advantages. Things are just done that way these days. And any GM who gives away answers to these things any clearer than Elias provides, is usually out of a job soon after.
Many here post their speculative thoughts based on the factors they perceive coming together. And that, is about the best we can get, until it actually happens. Speculation and opinion, along with some very good analysis, well that is why I am here.
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46 minutes ago, Pickles said:
That seems to be a wildly negative take on Austin Hays imo.
He's a second division regular with no upside?
That's pretty absurd as he was better than that this year.
I agree, but he has to continue to stay healthy. With continuity, there is some more there, I think. Hays became pull happy at times in the second half, and was off balance often. He pulled off many pitches on the outer half. In years past, he had more power to all fields. The swing did become shorter, and it seemed like he chased less. He still has more to prove, but 2022 should give us a more definitive answer.
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2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
I am coming around to this. Even with an IF signing we should be able carry Gutierrez, Mateo, and Urias. That doesn't mean they all play 162 games but they should get enough AB's to continue to be evaluated.
Jones and Martin have shown nothing. If Mancini is traded, his spot could go to a guy like Harrison who could DH but also play some 3B if one of the infielders isn't working out. As many holes as we have we can't drop any guys that have potential to provide more than replacement value at low cost. Worst case scenario they are assets to be traded.
Yes. Mateo and Gutierrez may never be star quality regulars, but they can still be of value to a winning team. They both could be the late bloomer type of player that the Orioles were hoping to land with all of those waiver claims. Urias may be less upside with a higher floor, but he has shown to be a solid unspectacular producer.
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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
What I find interesting is he has the same career rWAR as Walter Thomas.
Interesting. You had me there for a second. And then I remembered that Bancy Thomas is his grandfather. Richie can play defensively. It is a shame he has been set back with all of the injuries.
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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
No chance I'd use a 40 man roster spot on Martin.
It is unfortunate, but I think his time here may have run its course. Maybe he stays as minor league depth, but someone will want him to come in and compete for a 40 man spot. I wish him well either way.
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12 hours ago, wildcard said:
Mike: "We're going to be needing infielders next year. I think some of them will be coming from outside the organization but also guys like him (Mateo) and Urias showed us enough talented and production that we are going to try to have a place for them in our plans going into the off season."
6:50 into the interview.
https://www.audacy.com/1057thefan/sports/os-gm-mike-elias-talks-os-future-with-the-bbms
Perhaps Elias will bring in an infielder or two. This interview was from 9/16, about 16 days ago. Some things have changed a bit since then. It was before Gutierrez showed some progress, however small sample it is. His process needs to be changed and he seems to be doing so. It would not shock me at all if Elias brings in a legitimate SS, and perhaps a 3B. Urias and Mateo should be back, but there are upgrades available. Jam Jones, well he has a lot to prove. But Gutierrez, for me, has shown more than enough that would have me bring him back. If we DFA him, he will have no trouble getting a job. I put him at a similar status to Mateo, in that his talent is raw and exciting, and there is no way to know what they will bring to the table in 2022. They do not have a track record of great success yet. But then we would not have been able to acquire them on waivers if they did.
For me, I keep him and keep playing him at 3B. I keep Mateo and Urias. I would like to see all three play Winter Ball in the Caribbean. I can see bringing in a Freddy Galvis type and moving him at the deadline when Westburg comes up.
I would likely cut Bannon, and probably Richie Martin as well. Maybe they can move them in minor deals.
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1 hour ago, wildcard said:
Elias said he is going outside the organization for infielders.
When did he say he would specifically bring in infielders from outside the organization? In the latest interview with Elias, I have both listened to it and read the transcripts. All I can find is where he said he would bring in pitching external reinforcements.
Either way, I can see the team maybe add an infielder, probably a legitimate MLB SS. I am not sure they want to start the year with Mateo and Urias at SS if they are considering spending some money to add pitching. They could add a 3B, but why spend money there if Gutierrez will play excellent defense and is showing interesting improvement offensively?
A lot of moving parts this off season. Additions and subtractions to the 40 man will be interesting to follow. It looks to be about 17 subtractions before the Winter meetings. We’ll find out if we have a very good GM, or not.
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To hit the warehouse, you would need to pull the ball. Rob Neustrom hit a reported 480 foot home run at Hartford this year. It was completely out of their stadium. That ball was straight away to RF. That would get it done. If he gets a mistake on the inner half, he could do it. He may not become a star, but he can hit the ball a long way.
I would have thought a guy like Davis would have done, except he did not hit the inside pitch well.
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22 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
You forgot Pie and his chase after the errant batting helmet.
You beat me to it!
What an interesting off beat character.
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52 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:
I definitely think the power and bat speed are there to be at least an average hitter with pop, but there are so many factors to getting buy-in to a swing change. He's got something like 2500 at bats in the minors and only around 30 HRs. You have to imagine someone has told him to think about elevating the ball before. He looks like to me like batspeed isn't the issue, but he's long and lanky, and those levers are sometimes difficult to convince to do something they've got muscle memory for.
That being said, I like him, I like his defense, I like how he seems to relish an everyday role and I'm rooting for him. I just don't know if he's anything more than a stopgap defense-first 3B.
I agree with nearly everything here. It looks like Don Long, or someone else, has him moving his hands down a bit lately. His hands used to be a few inches higher at load. He looks like he is still getting used to the new load point, and I see him feeling for it at load at times lately. He had a downward plane to his swing, and he loses his back foot at times. He has started to finish higher as well.
I have stated since we first brought him in that he is the best defender we have had since Manny. The arm is a half tick below Manny, but his athleticism is truly elite. He seems to fit in with this group. I think they are genuinely intrigued by him and he has a good shot to stay. If he continues to show progress in his load, swing plane and finish, I can see his numbers going up considerably. Particularly if he can learn a little better swing decision discipline.
I am dreaming on tools just a bit here, but we can afford to keep him and find out. Richie Martin is probably out. And who would you rather have, Bannon or Gutierrez? I’ll take Gutierrez.
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5 hours ago, wildcard said:
I don't consider a 657 OPS to be not bad for a 3B. He is a glove first 3B same as Ruiz was. Now Ruiz is no longer a Oriole.
Gutierrez is far better a defender than Ruiz ever was. Better feet, better hands, and a plus plus arm.
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I like Grayson, DL, Lowther and Zimm. I believe in those four, along with John Means. I think they need two veteran guys to begin the year. I would prefer to acquire one legitimate solid veteran starter for the longer term. Use some of the depth to make that trade.
There is still a lot of reliever risk for Bradish. Baumann and Akin as well. Kremer has to get back to his curve ball and get his confidence back. He may never make it back to being an effective starter.
I am not a big fan of Wells’ stuff. He was fun to watch the other night, but I’m not too excited about his future. He took some velo off to have better control. He is going to have to be very sharp each time out or he gets lit up. I hope he proves me wrong.
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Just speculating here, but perhaps they wanted to coach hitters for extra money in the offseason. Would the Orioles allow them to coach hitters from outside the organization? I mean, minor league coaches do not make much at all.
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12 hours ago, RZNJ said:
All good names. You picked two good ones. How in the world did you pick Neustrom? Great pick there. Biggest breakout year. That's really tough but I guess I'd have to go with Stowers. I'll go with him because he is the only one (besides Neustrom) with a full season and he went the farthest. He had a mediocre debut in the NY Penn League 2 years ago and finished strongly in AAA this year.
On a lesser level, I'd call Mishael Deson a breakout guy as well.
Neustrom looked like a guy to me that needed some adjustments mechanically, but mostly in his approach. He has big power, and I thought the new staff could bring some things out of him and help develop more consistency. I saw him on an interview where he talked about his workouts and how he improved his athleticism.
Deson is a good call. I think Stowers would be my pick, but as Glenn said, nice to have many to choose from. A number of great development stories this year. Mayo would be a close #2 for me. I did not expect him to be as athletic in the box as he is.
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13 hours ago, Aglets said:
I assume this is the thread you mean?
Thought it might be good to link it here as a part of the discussion.
Stowers, Mayo, Pinto indeed seem like clear choices. Rom another honorable mention. Mundy.
Thanks for linking that. Mundy is another good choice. I think Rom improved a lot and raised his stock. Not sure he would qualify as a breakout. I mean I expected him to do well based on his 2019 breakout.
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Before the season began, there was a thread asking which player we thought would be a break out candidate. With the season nearly complete, we know a lot more about all of these guys. I picked Joey Ortiz and Rob Neustrom. They did fairly well, but Ortiz’ injury was unfortunate. I think my two picks were upstaged in 2021. Still, both had solid jumps in their status.
Who had the best breakout year? Stowers, Mayo, Pinto, or someone else?
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15 hours ago, Frobby said:
For what it’s worth, here are the O’s MiL leaders in games played at 2B:
Jones 53
Hall 47
Graffanino 47
Nobody else started as many as 30 games at 2B this year. Hence, it’s hard to argue with the selection of Jones. Clearly 2B was the weakest spot on the field for our organization.
Agreed. Vavra would look great there if he could stay healthy. Ortiz probably would have done well there in AA. I hope Hall flushes 2021 and rebounds.
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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
That would also indicate they are not going on the 40.
Of the three, I think Grenier might be protected. I could see him being selected and kept for his glove. I’m not sure they would keep him on the 40 along with Martin, Urias, Mateo, Jam Jones and Bannon. Would you rather have Bannon or Grenier? Bannon or Gutierrez for that matter?
Lebron’s command is not great, but a nice k rate. I do not think he’ll be on the 40. Dorrian, I do not think he is protected on the 40.
They could have easily added them to the AAA roster after the World Series. No need to do it now to protect them from minor league R5. This is more information, data collection, to make those decisions.
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7 hours ago, Philip said:
That’s the point I was trying to make. Somewhere online I saw a photograph *^%# the Athletics just tied Seattle… And it showed some woman holding up a sign saying, “believe all survivors.” Oh really? How do you know who’s a survivor and who’s lying for their own purposes, and people have really loopy purposes.
Questionable motives are out there, certainly on all sides. Professional athletes, like all public figures, are sometimes targets and have to be very careful what situation they put themselves into. It would be a huge risk to bring in a player who finds himself in bad situations frequently. I would not want that in my clubhouse, especially with a young team. Even at the league minimum.
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I wonder if all three might be sent to the AFL. Keep them sharp for that makes some sense.
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10 minutes ago, SteveA said:
What you describe certainly does occur.
But I would think it occurs far, far less than actual acts of sexual violence which also ruin lives on a daily basis. FAR less.
Hard to say, really, since much of this kind of thing goes unreported. I have worked in a field familiar with these kinds of things for 27 years. You may be surprised at how many people say they were sexually assaulted and were not when the facts come out. This has been my experience, but in no way does it demean or cast doubt upon anyone who was legitimately assaulted. The investigations should be of a strict confidentiality until the facts are determined. And really, every criminal investigation should be this way. Instead, we see snippets on CNN and immediately form opinions of things we know very little about.
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1 hour ago, pdiddy said:
He actually played both ways for a good football program in HS. He’s an athlete - he just doesn’t look like one!
A few years ago, he was certainly more agile and faster underway. That time has come and gone, unfortunately. Al Bundy was an all-state running back in HS, and he ended up a lousy shoe salesman.
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Clearing Roster space, October
in Orioles Talk
Posted
You can certainly make a case. He had a great year with the bat. Doubters might point to his lack of physicality, track record and splits. Mixed reviews on defense. LH power bats are definite value.