Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
You hit all the cliches here and I don’t think anyone disagrees. The difference is what those benchmarks are and how long it takes to pass them.
Personally, like Grayson, I don’t think he should have started at the level he did, so when I see him Dominating, that just re-affirms my belief that he should be moved up.
Rob, most people agree that some of these guys were started conservatively. Elias and Blood are being cautious, certainly. That is who they are, even without COVID. How have the top prospects suffered by starting a level lower and moving up in 4-8 weeks?
Like i wrote last night, Gunnar should get 1,000 at bats or more, like Tatis. There is time.
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2 hours ago, glenn__davis said:
The rush is to get players at the MLB level that can help you win baseball games. That's the whole point of it, right?
Obviously we don't want to "rush" him to the point of hindering his development, but I'm one that tends to believe that the cream will ultimately rise to the top. Certainly as far as hitters go at least.
I get that, certainly. But just to get them there is not even of half of the job of developing a player. You want them to get there and have the tools to have success and stay. You want them to have had enough failure, and to have overcome that failure so they can deal with it in the major leagues.
Look at the terrible development of players not named Machado over the previous 10 years. Elias has said repeatedly that he does not want to send guys down, if possible. He wants them to come up, and stay up. That is the goal, anyway. Particularly for guys who have the ability to be all stars.
No one is saying to hold him back. Just that he should move up when he passed certain benchmarks. Shown particular abilities, skills and aptitude. Winning a few more games next year is not more important than winning a lot more games in the years that follow. Not to me anyway.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
I don’t know that low A pitchers really ever adjust to a hitter. They’re too busy just getting their own stuff to work and get over the plate.
I think if the O’s weren’t stacked with MI prospects, Henderson would be in High A now. But I’m not fussed about it yet. It doesn’t matter much if he’s moved now vs. late June/early July. But I’d definitely want him to get enough High A under his belt where he can start 2022 in AA if he does well after his promotion.
The pitchers do adjust, situationally if nothing else. If they find out you chase a high fastball, for instance, you will see them go there if they can when they need a swing and miss. It may depend on the organization somewhat. We adjusted in travel ball and high school to a hitters weaknesses.
I agree with most of what you wrote. Ultimately, I want him to start in AA in 2022. He is a very exciting talent.
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5 minutes ago, LTO's said:
It’s a little strange that people make these bold proclamations after less 20 games worth of data last season. The top 10s on mock drafts now are different than they were even halfway into the season. Let alone after 15 games. I get people are upset they didn’t follow mock drafts but if we’re going to constantly harp on SSS, last year’s season is a prime example. We will see if the Os projections were correct. So far the results from the other college bats that draft have been encouraging.
Right, and along with that, many draft experts like Jim Callis said after the draft that Kjerstad was about to break out and was probably a TOP 3-5 pick. Callis said that he did a little more digging with scouts post draft and Kjerstad was not as big a reach as some thought. Obviously, the myocarditis did nothing but empower the doom and gloom around here. A little patience and we'll see. Nothing is easy or guaranteed. These guys (Elias, Mejdal and staff) have a track record and they are among the best in the industry at what they do. Some folks around here talk about Elias like he is some kind of haphazard fool. Cracks me up, honestly.
If you watch his swing and approach, his swing decisions, his process, it is obvious that he made a lot of progress before his junior year. The limited results were outstanding. Not just the numbers, but the way in which he achieved them. His process appears to be sustainable. Just need him to get back on the field and prove it so the snarky naysayers can look for something else to complain about.
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46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
What evidence do you have that he isn’t mature enough to handle things?
I think he should be challenged. I don’t think he should have been in Delmarva to begin with.
I do not know him like that. The Orioles do. And it isn't my call. But exercising some caution is prudent with most of these young men. Professional baseball is taking a much more proactive approach to developing their players off the field than ever before. It is smart to protect their investment.
All I was saying is just give it a few weeks and see where this goes. He is not Fernando Tatis Jr.. Tatis was signed by the CWS in 2015 and debuted for SD in 2019 at the ripe age of 20 yoa. He skipped AAA and went straight to SD. He still had four years of professional baseball before reaching SD and 1064 minor league at bats before his debut, and he IS a PHENOM. Gunnar has 192 professional at bats. He will move up, just wait a few weeks.
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21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
So, to be clear, if the Os announce tomorrow that they are moving him up, you will think that’s a bad idea, right?
Not necessarily. I would prefer that they wait, but I will not come here and complain about it. They have it right in front of them. If they think he is making adjustments and is ready for the challenge, fine. It is their call. But having caution now can help move him quicker later, and with greater success. I do not get to see what adjustments he has already made. I am impressed with his makeup, but I personally want to see him struggle and see how he handles it. The coaches are seeing how he is getting pitched night after night. They know his maturity and his decision making.
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9 minutes ago, survivedc said:
A-I was going off of your saying “phenom or not” (which is why I quoted it). Assuming he is a phenom he should be moved up and he will (as any true phenom does) adjust.
B-you want to see him dominate. What do you call leading the league in homers, RBI’s and being top 5 in just about everything else?
I call it an awesome start. Let's see what he does for the next 4-6 weeks. He has not seen the entire league yet. They do not have a book on him yet. I want him to be successful in Baltimore too. I do not want him to rush and not be prepared to stay.
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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Because we want to see the O's win and that is more likely when they have talented players on the team.
It is in the player's best interest to reach the majors as quickly as their talent (and development) will allow (him to produce all star results consistently).
I fixed that for you.
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53 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Because, as a general rule, the younger a player is when he gets to the majors the more successful his career is.
Guys are in the majors at 20.
He isn't going to develop as quickly or as well if he isn't challenged.
Along the lines of challenging him, you would agree that when the league adjusts to him he will be challenged to adjust with that, right? And perhaps he has things to get better at defensively. I want to see him move up too, but when he is ready to do so. A month of low A at bats, he has not even seen the whole league yet. He is not Ken Griffey Jr.. Relax a little and enjoy his growth.
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36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
His age is meaningless and they wouldn’t be rushing him. Rushing a player doesn’t exist except in extreme cases. That’s a made up thing for teams to keep players down.
The camp matters because he faced older competition, held his own and gained experience and maturity.
Sending him up a level or 2 will not hurt him one bit. He needs a challenge.
Age is relevant to his maturity, on and off the field. Handling the game and the pressures of the stardom, and failure. Age is relevant in that the youth is best served to play in MLB for a long time when he is ready to stay there.
The league has not adjusted to him yet. They will, and I think that is what they are waiting for. For a guy who has worked in MLB, how are you getting carried away with a SSS of a month?
The camp was a sterile controlled setting. He worked on fundamentals, and yes, he faced some live pitching. But it was the same pitchers, over and over.
They can move him up in early or mid-July. There is plenty of time. He can start AA in 2022 and move up from there. That would get him to Baltimore at age 22 in 2023. Again, what is your rush?
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39 minutes ago, survivedc said:
If you’re a phenom there is no problem in being rushed. Phenoms are phenoms. Gunnar might be just that and at some point it’s a disservice to him to not be challenged. He’ll be up soon.
So, you have decided Gunnar is a phenom in a month of low A ball? The league has not even had a chance to make adjustments to him yet. He has not been challenged yet to counter-adjust. Ok, no point in going any further for me.
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8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I'm of the mind that if your second best prospect is blocking your best prospect, you move him to make room for your best prospect.
Henderson is the O's best prospect at shortstop. He shouldn't be being held back for anyone else.
Some say low A ball is about equivalent to the SEC. So Westburg has roughly three years experience in low A. Henderson has a month. Maybe, Henderson needs a lot of work on his defense; or maybe the Orioles are waiting for the league to adjust to Gunnar and see how he handles the adjustments after they get a book on him.
No matter how badly fans want Henderson to be ahead of Westburg, he just is not there yet.
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14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I don’t get why he is still in low A. It just doesn’t make much sense, especially considering he reportedly held his own so well in the camp last year.
What is the rush? I mean he now has just a month of at bats above the GCL. I don't put any stock into the results of the 2020 Alternate Sight, honestly. He made some progress, reportedly. Great. He needs a chance to prove it against other teams. The Orioles can gather data on Gunnar and aid in his development. Perhaps they think he needs a lot of work defensively. He's a 20 year old kid, no need to rush his progression. Let him dominate and grow into his game and mature. Phenom or not, rushing him can really be problematic.
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3 hours ago, NCRaven said:
Chance Sisco was a HS shortstop until his senior season. Mountcastle was a HS shortstop. I'll bet 90% of the pitchers in the minor leagues played short or centerfield on the days that they weren't pitching.
Many high school coaches I know here in Central Florida will not pitch their shortstops, except maybe in a closer role. Different throwing mechanics involved. They will usually play their pitchers in OF or 1B to care for the arm.
But I suspect you are not far off, if at all. Some travel ball coaches will have a guy catch, pitch and play SS all in the same game. Ridiculous. Good travel programs have many who are PO's, pitchers only. Some position guys do pitch, but they have to be legit 2 way guys. And when they pitch, they sit most, if not all, of the remaining innings.
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I've noticed his production the past four days or so. The video is tough to see if he has made real adjustments, but I would hope that he has. It is reasonable to think he made some adjustments in minor league spring training that are just now taking hold in his game. It sure would be a welcome development if it is a sign of things to come.
And as far as the competition, or feeling the heat of Ortiz coming up, could be. It is possible that it made him feel a sense of urgency. Depends on the guy, really. Maybe his pal, Rutschman, noticed something in his swing. Whatever it is, I just hope it is sustainable. I am curious what Buck Britton would say about this.
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28 minutes ago, Yossarian said:
Isn't that all the more reason to take the "sure thing" (if there is such a thing) or best player available? When you are in the fourth year of a re-build and haven't shown any improvement at all at the big league level, I would think you want as many highly-rated guys as possible in your system that can move up quickly. The O's are in no position to roll the dice on draft picks on the hopes that an over-slot player they get cheap pans out.
We have absolutely beaten this to death. Numerous threads of long arguments for, and against. You are assuming that Elias does not think Kjerstad was the best man available. No one can say for sure, except Elias. We'll see. Elias' track record is excellent in evaluating talent. Five years or so, and we will be able to judge this.
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37 minutes ago, murph said:
Still it did sound like (from reading, didn’t hear Hyde and I know tone matters) that Hyde was almost mad at Harvey for getting hurt again. But I am sure Hyde himself is stretched pretty thin right now and his mood in general is not the best.
I did not get that from watching it. From my perspective, Hyde is not mad at him. His answer was direct, and I think it was telling of how much he is tired of having to juggle a stable of struggling relievers. He has to protect nearly every reliever he has access to, but it's not about Hunter only. At some point, enough is enough. Throw him out there and let him sink or swim...or go back on the IL.
I think Hyde has handled himself with class and dignity through a terrible stretch.
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@MurphDogg I think the two inning hopes are based on pitch count, certainly. But I think you're right that they would like to not use him on back to back days, if possible. I watched the Zoom conference, and Hyde did say that it is very difficult to protect pitchers these days. Personally, I say throw him out there, even back to back nights on occasion. It is time to take the training wheels off.
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An interesting piece on a DSL kid, part of the Givens trade, that we know little about. He should be in the GCL next to Luis Gonzalez.
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That explains some things.
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10 hours ago, Frobby said:
Freddy Galvis has started 43 games for us at SS this year. He’s made only 3 errors, but for the most part, the defensive metrics hate him: -4 Rtot, -6 Rdrs, -4 OAA. The outlier defensive metric is UZR, which has him at +1.1.
So what is the eye test telling you? Mine says that while he’s probably lost a step in range, he’s otherwise very solid. He generally makes the plays he should make and turns in his share of the difficult plays as well. I’ve seen him make a number of throws from awkward angles and he’s turned some nifty DPs and made a few really good relay throws too.
Overall, to me Galvis has been a bargain and a solid contributor both offensively and defensively.
I agree with your observations. Also not sure I would compare him to Hardy at his best, and really a very different defender than JJ. Galvis has been a pleasant surprise. Dependable and productive.
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We certainly look bad enough the past three weeks. It depends on what trades Mike Elias makes, which players get called up and what injuries are incurred. We don't score many runs, our starters (aside from Means) rarely finish five innings, and our pen is falling apart. We play 76 games in the AL East. We are looking at a top 3-4 pick.
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11 hours ago, jabba72 said:
Thats actually a really good point. His bat just doesn't play anywhere else. Its SS or bust.
I disagree. Chris Taylor comes to mind as a guy who was a good defensive SS in Seattle, but was light with the bat. He switched to CF and found a swing that works. For some players, a move from SS can help unlock the bat. It has worked for other players in the past, although I cannot think of any at this very moment.
I do not think Martin is an elite SS, for the record. He has a ceiling of a lower division starter for me. So a utility profile makes sense. Richie is a very good athlete, and I think he can hit enough to play in that role. I do not know what preparation the organization has given him. I doubt they just threw him out there without significant reps.
I am also not really in favor of moving so many players around the field so frequently when they are young, such as Gunnar, Westburg, et al. I think it stunts their growth at a particular position. A little tinkering is fine, but to do it several times a week seems silly for young players. Jack of all trades, master of none. With an older guy like Richie, it makes sense to me.
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Gunnar Henderson 2021
in Minors
Posted
Ok, opinions vary. I would say that we know some things about Gunnar now that we did not know a month ago. He has shown some things against actual competition. Before now, it was solely about projection.
Because of the way they travel now, Gunnar has played what, 4 of the other 11 teams in his league. Maybe there are some arms Elias and Blood want him to see. Perhaps they promote him tomorrow. I do not know. I am just not worried, and I do think it will not be long before he moves up.