Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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Yes, but it is in the background at times. More interested when the Orioles are picking soon, of course. The past 4-5 years I watched more than normal because of the number of kids I knew getting drafted.
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On 7/8/2021 at 5:14 PM, Frobby said:
Funny, I watched that interview a few days ago and didn’t hear the words “this season.” Seems odd that a “shoulder strain” on his non-throwing shoulder would keep him out for three months.
Yeah, I had to listen to it a few times to be certain. Ortiz had a solid year going, and his improvement is encouraging. I think we can trust Matt Blood in his assessments now.
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Matt Blood was on a podcast, On the Verge, which I recommend highly. Blood said, and I am paraphrasing, that he was sad that he was not going to see Ortiz play again this season. And I do not think the hosts caught it. I listened to it again, and he did say it.
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I believe Longenhagen is very informed and knowledgeable. But this is the first time I have heard anyone say the Brady House would be a 1B in a few years. That is not at all what I see, but ok. We do agree that he is likely not a SS for long. But he is a very agile athlete and a skilled defender.
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2 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:
Two thoughts.
You say that next year "the name of the organization will have some traction" and the Orioles will have a bit of a track record." Maybe so. Those 16-year-old signees, if they succeed, would likely be four to six years away from MLB -- so they might help the Orioles as soon as 2026-28. Maybe one or two would be older and arrive sooner. And I question whether things will change much in a year. I assume, without knowing, two facts: (a) the teenaged superstars who are the highest ranked and paid international guys think their talent will get them to the major leagues regardless of the team they sign with, and (b) these guys and their advisors read the MLB standings. Notwithstanding improved traction or name recognition, I think the Orioles will be near the bottom of most of these guys' wish lists. Again assuming, I would expect the question for them, aside from the dollars, is not the players' and advisors' familiarity with the Orioles, but how a future with the persistently cellar-dwelling Orioles looks compared with other opportunities.
You say the Orioles have spent "massive amounts of capital . . . on facilities and infrastructure." Really? About how much have they spent? I don't doubt that it's a massive amount compared to what I have in the bank or to how much the team is willing to pay a shortstop. But the question is how what the Orioles are spending compares with other teams, and I don't know either. You seem to concede that the Orioles spend "a small amount less than others," but say that's OK because they are, or might be, spending their dollars more efficiently. Where does that come from? Why do you think the Orioles' current or planned international spending is "a small amount" less than what the Dodgers or NYYs or Red Sox or Cardinals or Angels or Mets, or anyone else, is spending? And why do you think that the Orioles are spending smarter than any other team, let alone most or all of them? Which ones do you think are spending recklessly?
When the Orioles hired Elias, I had some hope that he would be a creative, innovative leader whose moves would enable the Orioles to compete better with higher-revenue teams. He may be that, and may be doing great things that aren't visible, at least not to me. But more and more I worry that his plan is simply to replicate what the Astros did. I can only hope that he's better than that.
A very thoughtful post. I certainly do not know the numbers off the top of my head, but the improvements are well-documented by the media. Facilities in the DR were atrocious. The absolute worst, which is what one would expect when a team does not value that program. The cameras (high speed and otherwise), computer equipment and the other things that the new analysts needed. The list goes on and on, and none of that was there. They hired many more international scouts. I am sure that guys like Kobe Perez and Matt Blood are not cheap hires either.
The traction I am speaking of will not have effects from MLB success, no, not yet. But their ability to help players reach their goals will be evident in how the players they signed are improving. How many are in the FCL right now, and things like that. Players and their trainers (buscones) do talk a lot. They know what is moving in a good direction and what is not. I think they will see the opportunity to take their bonus money and the ability to compete in an organization in need of talented players.
I think Mike Elias is a little more Cardinals than Astros, if you know what I mean. Maybe a little less arrogant and a little more substance.
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17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I'm not at all sold it is "miraculous".
To me the tough part was getting ownership to sign on.
Maybe I just don't know enough but I'm not sure that other folks couldn't be as good a job as the O's are.
Once again I agree progress has been made. No one could argue that point.
But miraculous? I guess I'm a tough grader.
Fair enough. Ownership has certainly earned our distrust. 100% on board with you there. But within the time that Mike Elias has been here, and keeping in mind the small market and COVID, I think he has done an excellent job in every facet. I think he is also about as genuine a guy as there is in the industry. He is human, and he’ll make mistakes, sure. Candid when he can be, but cautious when he should be. I am not sure I could have asked for a better situation that was within any reasonable expectation for any Orioles fan.
The people he has hired continue to impress me. Holding on to Brad Ciolek was a great move. Mike Snyder is doing a great job as well. Makes me wonder if we’ll be able to hold onto them for long. Kobe, Matt Blood, Eve Rosenbaum, the list goes on and on.
Changing the direction of the steam rolling ball of crap he inherited was never going to be an easy job. But I think they have done a “miraculous” job because I wanted this to happen…I just did not expect that it actually would. We have been screaming for a GM like this since Pat Gillick left. We got exactly what we wanted.
Remember the good ole days of Syd Thrift and the “Wonderlic tests?” Miraculous…
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So, this Gutierrez guy…
I know very little of him. I do remember seeing him rated in the Nationals system several years ago. I will say he has a good athletic frame and I can see what they like about him. Maybe they can work with him and get him to buy-in on some plate discipline things. At this point, why not? It is a very bad team, but a land of opportunity for a guy like Gutierrez.
As far as Jones, I love the bat and athleticism. But nothing drains me more as a coach or fan than when a guy turns what should be an out into an adventure. That really is bad for young pitchers, and our young pitchers need every out they can get.
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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Not really.
I think what I argued was that the O's would be better off spending that allotment on what prospects were left on the market than leaving it unspent. Sandy Gaston was also in play at the time.
I still think I would rather the O's throw the money at a kid that ends up busting than have ownership pocket it.
Money is money, my friend. And Kobe was not hired yet. They knew the task the had at hand. And they spent a lot of money upgrading everything from the ground up to support a successful transition. Technology and improvements to facilities, along with added coaches at each level and more physical trainers and other support roles, they have made a miraculous improvement. One that is sustainable and will support the generations to come.
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3 minutes ago, LTO's said:
A few years ago CoC continually argued that the O's should give the Mesa brothers 6 million. Older brother has a sub .400 OPS in AA and is now considered a non prospect. Little brother surpassed him as a prospect coming into the year but has been terrible in low A with a sub .300 OBP and sub .600 OPS.
In fairness, I think we all just wanted to see a commitment to acquiring good International Talent. Turns out, not investing in those guys was a good move, though we’ll never know what they could have been in our system. I think most fans who understand the situation believe that Elias and Kobe are doing a great job thus far. Of course, if you agree with that, then that may be too much credit to give ownership for some. Rolls
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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
The new facility is supposed to be ready.
Nothing you say changes what I said. That while progress was made the O's were still toward the back of the pack.
Not looking to change what you said. It is just a very narrow argument. Of course I have no delusions that I will ever change what you believe. It has been the same tune for a year now, despite whatever counter points we provide. I’m not here to argue with you. That would be a waste of time. I am simply providing some breadth for the rest of us.
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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:
Not really. You aren't going to see a situation in which the #5 guy isn't considered a significantly more valuable prospect than the #30 guy. You might have a class in which #5 and others are a better deal than #1 but the O's aren't in either situation right now.
Most of the top players were already committed this year. We got Hernandez and Basallo since they got squeezed out by their previously committed organizations. We were fortunate to get those players with Kobe’s knowledge and relationships down there. This year should be better. I think the next year should be the one we have bigger expectations. The new facility might be ready by then. The name of the organization will have some traction and some of the players being recruited will have a track record to look at.
Now that there is depth, I would expect them to spend their money on more talented and expensive guys as they become available.
Faulting the organization for spending is a narrow argument without mentioning the massive amounts of capital spent on facilities and infrastructure. What problem is actually solved by spending recklessly? If you can accomplish what you are able and do so while spending a small amount less than others, is that not smart management?
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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I think he puts a lot of emphasis on talent.
If a low talent guy has tons of character, mental toughness, intelligence and determination I don't think he's in play at 1-2.
Talent trumps pretty much everything else.
Agree. Don’t get me wrong, talent wins games. And nice guys don’t necessarily win much. What I am saying is that Elias has stated he puts an emphasis on intangibles that allow the prospect to make progress and likely to reach toward his potential ceiling. So, if things are roughly even, talent wise, the intangibles count more so. All the talent in the world means nothing if you will not get close to it.
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57 minutes ago, LookinUp said:
It's anyone's guess who they pick, but I love the idea of Jackson Jobe.
Potentially 3 70-grade pitches was what Kiley McDaniel said the other night. Wowza.
HS arms are just so risky. But I do love the profile if you can afford the risk.
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
They may not be connecting us to Lawlar because he is unlikely to make it there. Or maybe Elias is keeping a tight lid on things?
Those are my thoughts as well. In the mocks that have Lawlar available, most have us taking Watson, Davis or Cowser. I cannot see Elias passing on Lawlar if he likes him. I think he puts a lot of emphasis on character, mental toughness, intelligence and determination. That said, if he passes on him, I think it has more to do with liking another player more so than the money.
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Hard to say who will be available. Mayer and Leiter will probably be gone. After that, wide open field of players with similar value, but different price points. Elias has chosen two college bats with his first picks. He could afford to go after a higher end HS position player here as the system is not barren at any position at any level. The safe route (higher floor) is Davis, if he is available. The best player might come from among Lawlar, House and Watson. Ford is a real dark horse.
I think this pick will come down to intangibles of players more than their bonus amount. If Elias is impressed with Lawlar, I think he should be willing to pay him slightly over slot. None of the mocks I have seen have the Orioles with any interest in Lawlar. I assume that is because of his number to forego Vandy.
If Lawler’s number is more than Elias is willing to go, then House makes sense. House has the loudest tools and best physicality. He is probably not a SS for long, but he is a plus defender athletic enough to be an outstanding 3B or RF. Elias believes in his player development staff.
So, my pick is Brady House. But I am pulling for Lawlar. Watson, if House is not a available.
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2 hours ago, panick said:
But what about his defense at 3B? There is a reason it's called the 'hot corner', and you have to be able to catch the grounders there before you can show off your arm on throws to 1B.
I know that Torre and Bench both moved to 3B, but I don't know how good defensively they were. They may have just been put there to extend their careers and get their bats in the lineups.
And if you put Davis at third, where is Henderson going to play?
I agree. And the answer is, “I don’t know.” I have never seen him play 3B. He appears to be athletic enough to play there, but IDK. You’ll have to love the bat to take him at 1-5, I think.
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Tony, what are your thoughts on Rob Neustrom? He has flashed some serious power, and he has been a steady, if unspectacular performer for Bowie.
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On 7/6/2021 at 3:41 PM, Tony-OH said:
Stowers is an interesting player because he has some tools to work off of and he's starting to tap into his power a little bit more during game time. He seems to hold his own against lefties and he's shown some ability work counts. He runs well, and defensively, he's best suited for corner outfield and arm looks pretty solid.
He's probably going to jump Diaz in the rankings here soon, especially since he has the skill of staying healthy. He's definitely a guy that has a chance to be an everyday outfielder in the big league still.He is certainly has legit tools. The only question for me is the length of his swing. If he shortens that up, he should shore up the strikeouts some with better swing decisions.
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13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
The former.
It seems every draft someone suggests that a player selected can just deviate from the agreed upon parameters and demand more money from the team.
For instance, someone might say, "I know Heston agreed to an underslot deal but now that the O's drafted him second he should just demand slot. No way they want to delay the pick a whole year."
I agree, though some have done it, supposedly. It is not good. This industry does not reward shenanigans like that. Be a man of your word, and embrace just how lucky you are to be in the position you are in. Of course, teams sometimes do similar things. I think Mike Elias has garnered a lot of respect in the industry for how he does business.
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1 minute ago, joelala said:
Agree with all of this. I think Cowser is a safe pick and will hit for average but yea the swing in its current iteration isn't built for a lot of power. Looks like he hits off his front foot a bit, and it’s kind of slappy. Also haven’t seen him in the field really but his gait doesn’t look as naturally athletic as some to me so I also wonder what added weight will do to him speed-wise.
I agree. I mean, they can get him into a workout program and keep him lean. Do some HIT training and lots of stretching and such, perhaps that maximizes his athletic performance without losing his speed. I would be curious what his shuttle and exit velo numbers are.
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5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
I find it funny when fans suggest that players should change their number after being selected.
That really isn't the way you want to start your career.
Can you clarify? Do you mean to increase their number, or decrease and settle for less than what they were asking for?
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1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
I would be fairly certain that Elias knows who he is going to pick, based on who is there. Most of these players have been finished playing for weeks to a month or more. I would hope Elias is focused on who they might draft in the 5th round or later. I would be surprsied if Elias has told anyone who he is going to pick.
Not according to Elias. He says he never makes the decision of exactly who he wants to draft until the day or night before the draft. Information changes up to the moment. I am sure he has an idea of a small group. He is talking to the players, agents and scouts until the decision is made. This is what he has outlined since he has been here.
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7 hours ago, 7Mo said:
Hope you post more often. Really good stuff in here. Thanks.
You mention Rocker, Frelick and smoke screens in the same paragraph. I think there are a LOT of smoke screens leaking about now.
Grading strictly as a hitter, Cowser or Davis? By a little or by a lot?
Cowser grades well as an outfielder, to the point that some argue he would be a good ML CF'er. I'm not at all concerned about taking Davis as a less than average ML catcher. You could catch him 1-2 times a week, DH 1-2 times, first base 1-2 times. But Cowser might bring more defensive value. If they are close based solely on hit plus power, does that make the difference?
It looks like Davis will hit with power, and a solid average. The plate discipline is good as well. He looks athletic enough to play a corner OF or INF position. The arm is enough for RF or 3B for sure. If they take Davis, it should be for the bat and not because of his defense at catcher. I cannot support taking a guy at 1-5 to DH him.
Cowser is a guy you can project more power with added strength, but what is the cost to his speed/agility. More of a flat plane guy, so a swing adjustment is necessary to get more power. But honestly, I don’t think I would do that. He is going to be a high average guy. Just keep working on the swing decisions and keep the high barrel rate. More of a gap to gap guy. He can always add strength and power down the road. I am not sure he is a CF, have not seen enough to make that call. What I have read is that he should be able to stay in CF.
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The OP is an absolutely ridiculous and baseless assertion. I think you might have earned the most down arrows I have ever seen in the history of the OH. And I have been here since 1997. I may have given 5 down arrows in that time. You have three of them. Your time here should end soon. Enjoy the ban I hope you receive.
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Franco to IL, Gutierrez up
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Watched some of the game tonight and saw Gutierrez make several very nice plays at 3B. He is athletic and agile, quick soft hands and the best arm at 3B since Manny left. He even had a couple of hits.
The error was on a throw that short-hopped Trey at 1B. The ball went into his glove and bent it back causing the ball to come out as the glove snapped back forward. Trey should have had that. The snag on that by Gutierrez was really nice, but he bounced the throw like it was shot out of a cannon. Franco never sniffs that play.