Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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3 minutes ago, 7Mo said:
Yeah, I'm with you there. I haven't watched any of the group enough to feel strongly. Ortiz and Hernaiz seem to have the defensive rep. Hopefully one hits enough. And the guy who winds up being the long time SS may not be in the organization yet.
Also, the "less ground balls"...you're obviously correct but I think that's going to head the other way soon with spin rates going down. Maybe not drastically but at least some pitchers will have to adapt.
Agreed. I wonder if the sinker/slider combo comes back more so. It has to have somewhat of a correction. I forgot about Hernaiz, he has a ways to go with his bat though. Don’t sleep on Grenier. If he continues to hit the way he has the past 6 weeks. People still love his steady reliable defense.
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15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I never suggested that he wouldn't struggle. The idea is what would lead to a better Henderson in 2023.
But I made that clear already.
Well, he is struggling some now. lol
You know I agree with you for the most part, in that they need to be challenged when ready. He’ll be fine.
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3 hours ago, 7Mo said:
Agree with everything you said. Very good post.
I was half listening to MLB radio the other day when they were talking about how the shortstop position has changed over the last 20 years. A bigger guy with a cannon for an arm plays much more favorably in todays game than they would have 20 years ago.
And then, Dan Connolly had a scout tell him this:
The scout told me that Henderson, a 2019 second-rounder, might be the best player he’s seen so far this year from an upside perspective. And then he dropped this hammer.
“He reminds me of Corey Seager.”
I can certainly see that comp. And yeah, the game has changed to bigger SS. The shift and all of the analytics come into play. I still have a hard time giving anyone’s upside anything until they actually do it. Henderson makes a ton of errors right now. Not a big issue, not now. He is still an elite prospect, sure. If I’m a pitcher, I want the guy who makes the most plays, turns outs into outs. But there are also less ground balls these days. I can see it both ways.
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21 hours ago, 7Mo said:
That's kinda tough to do given that all that's available on Watson are some brief videos and written blurbs. But from what I've read, the 5'9" Watson profiles more as a second baseman. Video's show excellent bat speed and athleticism and he will likely play short for a few years in MiLB to see how he develops.
From draft comments, it also appears Watson is shooting up boards, either because he's still playing when other high schools aren't, or my speculation is he is more amenable to an underslot deal and therefore, he's rising on boards. Looks like there's a real chance he gets taken at 2. I've read that Elias has seen Watson a lot recently.
As to guys in our system, Gunnar is clearly the best prospect considering both offensive and defensive ceilings and he should have a good chance to stay at short.
Here's a compilation of draft projections from Trade Rumors:
- 1. Pirates: Mayer (Callis/Collazo/Law/McDaniel), Henry Davis, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, Jack Leiter
- 2. Rangers: Leiter (Callis), Lawlar (Collazo/Law), Davis (McDaniel), Kumar Rocker, Mayer, Watson….in a contrast to the other three pundits, Callis writes that Texas has Lawlar and Davis “on the back burner” behind Watson, Mayer, and Leiter. “Watson has real heat at this spot,” Collazo writes.
- 3. Tigers: Mayer, Jackson Jobe (Callis/Collazo), Leiter (Law), Brady House (McDaniel), Lawlar, Watson, possibly Rocker “as a big maybe” in Collazo’s words
- 4. Red Sox: Lawlar (Callis), Davis (Law), Leiter (Collazo/McDaniel)….Collazo doesn’t believe Leiter would fall beyond Boston at fourth overall,
- 5. Orioles: Davis (Callis), Colton Cowser (Law), Watson (Collazo/McDaniel), House, Harry Ford, either of Mayer/Lawler if they happened to fall….Baltimore is widely expected to take a college position player at an under-slot price, as a way of keeping money in reserve to go over-slot on other picks.
- 6. Diamondbacks: Rocker (Callis), Davis (Collazo), Watson (Law), Lawlor (McDaniel), Jobe
- 7. Royals: Watson (Callis), Rocker (Collazo/Law/McDaniel)….this is another minor consensus area, as Law and McDaniel believe that Rocker isn’t likely to fall beyond Kansas City. “The market for Rocker is weirdly specific,” Law writes, citing the Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Nationals, and Mets as perhaps the only true interested parties. Of course, Callis projected the D’Backs to take Rocker at sixth overall, so Arizona could also be a candidate for the Vanderbilt righty.
Thanks for the great synopsis!
I agree it is very difficult to rank them at this point. A lot of unknowns. I read the comments by Kiley McDaniel, Callis and Mayo. I cannot say that “compact frame” and solid SS excites me when considering a profile of a 5’-09” HS SS, who is “not the elite runner that Abrams is.” I admit that I, like you, have seen limited video and such. If Elias takes him, I’m a fan. But just looking at what is publicly available, I agree he profiles at 2B. A 55 grade arm at SS is ok, but not exceptional. Ideally, I want a little more at SS, but above average is not really a knock. It just isn’t a plus. As players mature and gain muscle and size, the arm can sometimes slide a bit.
That said, nothing wrong with those things if he hits, and he “competes” at an elite level. We need “winners” in this organization, even if they are nearly average defenders.
It would be difficult to put such an unknown ahead of some of the existing players. Personally, I think Henderson will have to prove that he can stay at SS, not saying he cannot, just that he has to show that every step. Henderson and Westburg both project to be 3B, or perhaps a corner OF. We’ll see. I personally value defense at SS a great deal over offense. So to rank Grenier and Ortiz at the top right now is based on my value of steady quality defense, and a resurgence at the plate for both. Servideo is supposed to be another excellent defender and the early returns are that his OBP and ability to be patient at the plate are excellent. His versatility seems to indicate a utility profile, but we’ll see what offense he provides. Hall is generally thought to no longer be a SS prospect from what I have read.
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I have no issues with these moves. I will be pleasantly surprised if Alexander Wells isn't back in Norfolk soon. I am curious to see if he has something more than what I expect.
Good luck to Chance Sisco. Perhaps he can learn to play 3B and become more valuable that way.
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43 minutes ago, SteveA said:
Career WAR with the Orioles:
David Wells 2.9
Tyler Wells 0.5
Alexander Wells 0.0I just hope we haven't gone to the Wells one too many times...
Ok, I will let myself out.
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On 6/24/2021 at 2:19 PM, Bahama O's Fan said:
Machado, rushed?
Yes, I think so, but I can build a case either way. He was recalled prematurely and had to change positions. He had what, 3 months in AA? It took him two more years before he hit his stride offensively. The knee injuries were a part of all of that, but I believe he would have had a better offensive beginning if he had waited until the following year, ideally, with a real development team in place.
On the other hand, he was excellent defensively and hit better than other alternatives the Orioles had at that time. There was many adjustments he had to make on the fly at the major league level. He adapted fairly well, sure. The player development people were much less effective than the current situation, and Buck must have felt that Bobby Dickerson and Scott Coolbaugh would better develop Manny in the middle of a playoff race than what he would have gotten in the minors. Manny is a special talent, a mentally tough individual. And he had some veteran leadership in Hardy and such around him.
Overall, it was a gamble and it worked out in some ways. There was so much buffoonery surrounding the way he was handled, it just hastened his departure as a villain to some, unfortunately.
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6 minutes ago, SteveA said:
The area has gotten a lot nicer in the past decade or so. Just north of the stadium is an area with lots of restaurants, bars, etc that was nonexistent 20 years ago. The stadium is still a piece of crap.
Yep, St. Pete has done a nice job revamping the downtown area. Stadium is crap. Traffic really depends on where you are trying to go. If you have a family, hard to stay after the game and party. Personally, when we have gone, we leave right after and head East toward Orlando. It is terrible inbound during the rush hours, especially when it rains.
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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:
Maybe, maybe not. Maybe he's Garrett Olson? Olson never could spin his breaking ball effectively enough with the major league ball.
With only 6 unsuccessful starts in AAA, Kremer has not shown he was ready for the majors. i understood why he was given the chance, but its time for him to spend 10-15 starts in AAA.
You've made some great points on Kremer, and player development, in general, in this thread. The way Kremer struggled last night with command, it was obvious that something was off. He is either injured, or perhaps he had been using something to get a better grip that he cannot use anymore. My biggest concern is how he just wilted out there. I have to question his competitiveness after seeing him last night. He seemingly could not wait to get out of there. My 10 year old noticed and called him out.
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59 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:
Baseball cannot continue to tailor and market the game to people who want it to be exactly like it's 1930 or 1960 or whatever. Those people either aren't around anymore, or soon won't be. Also, standing pat on rules and changes for a century has resulted in a game that looks nothing like it did 50 or 100 years ago. You can drive the changes, or you can let them just kind of happen. And when you let things go you end up with 3-4 hour games of mostly strikeouts and home runs.
Manfred's major flaw is that he changes things around the margins that have little effect. But he almost has to because every change is judged on how different it is from when Mickey and Willie were playing. Runner-on-second-in-extras and seven-inning doubleheaders are deeply loathed by the traditionalists, imagine if he tried some changes that would actually result in lower Ks and faster-paced games. Well... the sticky stuff ban should lead to fewer Ks, and the Twitterverse thinks checking pitchers for the banned substances is ridiculous and insane.
I knew I would get you out on that point. As always, I respect your thoughts. I miss the game the way it was, sure, and I lamented that. I know change must happen. The rapid nature of it is difficult and leads to many having a distaste for the undulating nature of the game they barely recognize from the game they played 20-30 years ago. The PED’s and nerd ball strategies (I mean that in the nicest way) have lead to the three outcomes that do bore the heck out of me as well.
I enjoy a great pitching match up, a well played 2-1 game. I am a bit of a romantic that way. I sometimes enjoy a slug fest too, but not every night. I love extra base hits in the gap, watching a guy steal and make great defensive plays. I miss watching a guy pitch seven innings every fifth night out, and occasionally going nine. I miss seeing a guy play his entire career with one organization None of that is a part of the game anymore. So be it. I do miss it.
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I am onboard with the rebuild, absolutely. This team is absolutely terrible, aside from Means, Mullins, Mancini, Mountcastle, Fry and Galvis. Santander and Hays need to be on the DL. Everyone can see it. With young pitchers, there are ups and downs, but yikes! This is not a major league team, not even a bad major league team.
We knew they were not good, but they played hard and things were looking up as improvement seemed evident. There was a major change, about six or seven weeks ago, when Chris Holt went on a mysterious leave of absence. It has been a nosedive ever since. I get the feeling that this team has basically been lost by Hyde. And I think he may be done at, or before, the end of the year. His frustration has been mounting. It is a shame, because I like him.
Frobby, I am at the same stage. I tuned in for four innings last night. I could not take any more. Kremer looked like he had no command. I immediately thought of the sticky substance rule. I will look at his metrics today. But even worse, he wilted out there.
Someone else said it in this thread, but after not having baseball for a time in 2020, I will continue to follow. I may not watch as much for now, but I love this game. I always will. And I love the culture of the game.
As for the prosperity of the game, I am turned off by the marketing and politics of MLB. I am quite obviously not the audience they are trying to attract. They continue to turn off the most traditionally loyal fans. Attendance in Baltimore may never come back to the sellouts of Camden Yards in the 90’s. The Nats arrival seems to make that a pipe dream.
I am also turned off by the constant meddling with our great game by Manfred and his band of merry idiots from Harvard and Yale. Can we just get back to playing the game the way it was for more than a hundred years, please? Every time I see the bases loaded with one out, and a RH batter hits a tailer-made double play grounder to 2B…but the 2B man was not playing there because of some shift. Or a hard ground ball up the middle and an infielder is standing there to make an easy play. I miss the great diving plays up the middle, and the well earned base hits that were customary throughout the history of the game. Billy Bean was right, he is partly to blame for what MLB has become.
For me, the last time I went to a game, we parked three blocks away. We walked by the federal courthouse and were approached twice to buy any drug we wanted on the steps of the federal courthouse. That is just the experience I want for my family…what a hole. But that is not the Orioles’ fault. Society politics of the City of Baltimore is killing any desires I once had to attend games while in town.
I prefer minor league baseball these days. And college baseball. Hell, I prefer high school and Little League/Babe Ruth baseball to MLB. The purity of the game is lost on MLB. That is sad.
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7 hours ago, 7Mo said:
A typical D1 guy will wind up with a scholarship that is one third of cost of attendance. A highly regarded pitcher would be more like 40% or 50%. That's one of the reasons academics are stressed because coaches are looking for a guy who can combine his athletic scholarship with academic money.
And there are differences by state. Georgia has a program available to their high school graduates that pays some or all of their first year of a Georgia college. Lottery money is available in some states to pay for college costs. Louisiana has a good program I believe. Vandy has private funds they can access for guys they want.
To corn's point above, MLB teams will provide funds for college as a part of a standard contract. They look at the cost of attendance at the school a kid is committed to and agree to provide that amount. As the years have gone by, there have been limitations on when that money is available and when it must be used, or lost. As you would guess, when a high school kid is weighing options between signing to play pro baseball or go to college, the college funds offered by the standard contract seem far away and less significant because most guys in that situation firmly believe they'll make it in MLB and play for a dozen years.
A really great post. I was under the impression the MLB contracts do not do the college funds anymore, just what I was told about two years ago.
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4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Three things.
1- I don't think that many scholarships are out there for Baseball.
2- Teams can include money for college without infringing on their draft pool number.
3- A decent number of the guys drafted are already in college.
Each D1 team has 11.7 scholarships to give out. No one gets a full scholarship, and the top guys get about half of one. They do have other funds to use, grants and things like that. Kevin O’Sullivan (UF) told me that no player gets a full scholarship.
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7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Some might say ego.
Sure. Depends on your point of view. He seems to me to be genuine and fairly transparent about his process. I find him sincere. Some may feel differently. He is no Mike Rizzo, or Jim Bowden. Let’s see if his way works, then we can see if the ego grows to match.
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1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
The DJ and Grenier picks were widely panned. I'm glad that DJ has at least made it to the majors as a part time player. Most teams would not think that picking a defensively limited player who needs his swing reworked in the 1st round is a good pick. I'm hoping for the best for Elias and I don't blame him for mistakes in drafts before he got here like some national experts.
I was never a fan of the DJ pick. Still not. But, in fairness, that was the previous regime, and they wanted the power. They sacrificed defense for power/production. Elias had nothing to do with that.
Grenier is looking up for the past 4-5 weeks. Check his AA stats. It was considered a reach, but the previous regime valued his defense that much. Saw him as guy with a nearly MLB ready SS glove. That group believed in moving prospects quickly and they’ll teach you how to hit, or whatever.
When hired, Mike Elias was considered a bright rising front office star. A steal of a hire, who came along with his own rocket scientist. The theory of spreading the bonuses around is a sound one, but there are no guarantees.
We all want this to work out. Just need to be patient.
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2 hours ago, 7Mo said:
Good post.
So, of the 6 most likely to be available, Lawlar might price himself out of reasonable range, Watson is 5'9" and likely a second baseman, Davis has the swing issues you outlined, House probably needs some swing adjustments and likely moves to third, and Jobe sounds outstanding but remains a HS RHP. I left out Rocker.
I understand the uproar coming from this board if they wind up picking Frelick, Cowser or Bachman, but it might not be the worst idea this year. Of course, Elias and company have infinitely more information available to them than I do so who knows.
Yes to all you wrote there. That is why the Ford under slot makes some sense, really. A very talented kid, strong and fast. Seems a lot like a young Austin Martin, except he can play catcher. A similar tool profile. A very interesting situation. It should really tell us more about the sophistication of Elias’ process. Some of the more popular publication picks are safe, and maybe a little lazy. When you take an undervalued kid and hang it all out there with the faith that you can coach that young fella up to be a star, at a lower cost. Man, that is conviction. We’ll see.
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1 hour ago, 7Mo said:
If there is any consensus right now, I think it's that Mayer goes #1 and Leiter doesn't last past #4. Several seem to think Boston will take him if he's still on the board.
That leaves Lawlar, Watson, Davis, Rocker, House and Jobe, in that order, from MLB prospect rankings. 4 of those 6 will be available at pick #5.
If Lawlar says he will only sign for 1-1 slot money, that's roughly $2.2M above the #5 slot value. It would be interesting to see how the O's evaluated these 6 guys. Do they see Lawlar as that much better than the others? Personally, I really like Watson, Davis and Jobe.
A well reasoned take. Have you looked at the crouch, leg kick and huge upper cut swing of Davis? Maybe the selecting teams and scouts feel that a swing change is in order, or maybe they like his launch angle and excellent power. I notice his hands at load are pretty far away from his body and I think he’ll have issues with pitchers busting him inside. I have heard mixed reviews about his defense. I have honestly not seen enough to say either way. The videos of his swing concern me, and the bat is why he is among the top prospects. I worry that he is up there simply because he is the most productive current college bat. There will be plenty of unpolished toolsy college guys in rounds 2-4 that may end up more valuable in a few years from now. Guys like Isaiah Thomas of Vandy and Robby Martin of FSU.
Of Lawlar really wants 1-1 money, hard pass. See you in two years, kid. They would have to save about $2 million elsewhere in the top 10 rounds. You would have to think he is the next AROD or Griffey, Jr..
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4 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
Trying to go underslot with the 1st round pick. The O's have been doing this for years. it seems to be an organizational philosophy (maybe ownership). There have been so many picks where the O's took a pick who was a reach in the 1st round. DJ, Grenier, Hobgood, etc, etc.
None of the picks you cited were actually under slot much, if at all. And Elias was not here for those picks. He famously did that with Carlos Correa and the Astros years ago, and it was very successful. They were able to add the McCullers kid along with Rio Ruiz with over slot bonuses. Correa turned out to be worthy of being #1. And other teams behind the Astros wanted him as well. They just did not tell the publications this because smart GM’s do not tell journalists what they really think until after a draft. Many people in the industry were not surprised about Kjerstad, but the journalists were. And when they dug around, they found out he was actually much more coveted than they were told before the draft. Callis, for one, spoke of this after the draft.
I get that you are frustrated, and the board is all over the place with this and we have talked this to death. But Elias stated he believes he got an undervalued player who was about to explode into the top few picks if his junior year was allowed to continue. He listed the reasons that his improved performance and decision making was sustainable. You disagree, that is your right on a message board. But do you really think you know more about how to rebuild a farm system and draft more than a guy(s) who has done it successfully with the Cardinals and Astros in Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal and his crew? He is not always right, but wow.
What if Elias thought Kjerstad will be the best overall player he could take there? Maybe his concerns about Martin’s defense or overall production compared to Kjerstad’s best LH bat in the entire draft was why he took him. And he smartly played the industry for a cost cutting contract, even though he felt Kjerstad was their guy. Or Boras may have been playing games with the bonus, or maybe Martin did not want to come to Baltimore and priced himself out of that pick.
We don’t really know for sure, but we can have this conversation five or so years from now.
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46 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
Did the Kjerstad misadventure teach the O's nothing? When you're team is blessed w/ a top 5 pick (an the MLB team is obviously unblessed), taking the best player available is common sense. I don't understand giving up drafting a premium talent to draft a slighter higher talent level player in the later rounds. I don't see how downgrading the #2 pick to the 10th best talent is made up with getting the 80th best talent in the 100th slot *not the actual slots, just an example).
So, you have personally scouted Kjerstad? Anybody else who was available? How do you know he did not think Kjerstad was the BPA? Let me guess, you are basing that on the publication lists? And those lists are based on what they are told, as they are journalists, not scouts. Those lists are not what Elias uses to base his picks on. And if he did, he should be fired.
Kjerstad has a heart virus that can kill him, and you call that a "misadventure?" It was something he contracted after the draft. What is Mike Elias supposed to learn from that? Good grief.
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23 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:
We all figured he'd probably be promoted in a few weeks. That wasn't the point. The point was that he should've been promoted then, or more appropriately started at Aberdeen. You're correct, he needs time to learn and gain experience. He should have been doing that at this level from the start. Now he's just now starting his High-A education.
Grand scheme of things, will a few weeks one way or the other affect his development long term? Probably not, but I continue to believe that Elias is delaying promotions to align with some arbitrary and unstated window that he has in his head for when the MLB team should start be more competitive.
Anyway, don't feel like having this argument again. We probably know where most folks stand on this at this point and no one will change each others mind. Here's hoping Gunnar continues to play well so Elias can call him up by 2024
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I think we agree on many things. He is a special talent, no doubt about it. Where we disagree is in the actual value of Gunnar’s previous experience. The alternate site was valuable for many things related to training, but it did not replace actual games played. Nothing they can do replicates this. A few weeks in the GCL, and he came from the Alabama HS ranks before that. Alabama is not a hotbed of talent or competition.
I am not convinced that Elias is delaying development for a competitive window, but I can see the argument. I think there is a hierarchy in the glut of infield prospects, separated by experience and talent. Elias obviously values those things.
We do agree that I also have no desire to have this discussion again. lol
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2 hours ago, glenn__davis said:
Don't agree with this shot. I think he should have either started at Aberdeen or been moved there more quickly.
I don’t see it as a shot, but I’m not speaking for Frobby. Several of us said, just wait a few weeks, it will happen. And it did. There was quite a frenzy of disgruntled people all over the net, but then he had a four strikeout game and that quieted some. He needs time to learn and gain experience playing in professional games.
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47 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:
There are no playoffs in the minors this season.
Oh, okay. Thanks.
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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I don't agree.
You are right, I should explain. There are some advantages to being up for a few weeks. The Norfolk season runs through September 19 right now. If they can make a playoff run, that would be more important to get that experience than to come be a part of the worst team in MLB. Elias has steadfastly said that he will not compromise the development of young players.
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1 minute ago, Robh21223 said:
Even if it's like the last 20 games of the year?
Yep. I am not saying your idea is bad, just that they will likely not do it. Especially not Grayson, or any other young pitcher.
Catching wise, I think they want to get a strong look at Ciuffo and Cumberland. I can see either one, or both, coming up this year. If Severino does not pick it up soon, he'll join Sisco as a DFA. Who knows, maybe Adley somehow forces their hand, but there is no advantage in his development to come up.
Gunnar Henderson 2021
in Minors
Posted
I have seen you beating that drum lately. That would be an unique gamble, certainly. I’m not ready to do that, but the idea isn’t unsound for a guy dominating in AA.