Jammer7
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Posts posted by Jammer7
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3 hours ago, Philip said:
Isn’t that what they did with Kjersted?
I thought they negotiated with him before drafting him to see if he would take less than slot. Is that incorrect?
You are correct, according to various sources, including the signing scout just after the draft.
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It seems like this year is the year the Orioles clear out some of the inventory in the minors. There was a lot of guys that they just needed to see play, and some have been released like JC Encarnacion and Jaylen Ferguson. Carmona still has time, I guess, because he still has a jersey on his back. But I doubt he gets many chances from here. He needs to keep hitting and I hope his defense is on point, because there is a lot of young infielders coming in behind him.
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Excellent job, sir! I will not argue with one thing you wrote. Thanks for that.
Hyde mentioned something a week or two ago about the competition in 2020 being very "different" than that these guys are facing in 2021. That point cannot be under-valued in the evaluation of disparate results. The only player that really disappointed me is Santander, but I think he is showing signs of coming to life with the bat. Akin and Kremer are the biggest under-achieving pitchers for me.
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Not long ago, Shaun Anderson was considered a a good prospect out of UF. He was the Giants' #4 prospect in 2019 according to Baseball America. Only 26 years of age, 6'04" 225 lbs. and works in the 92-94 range mostly, bumping 96 frequently. I lost track of him over the past year, but he was highly regarded a short time ago. Looking at his stats, he was a reliever the past two seasons and struggled with his command.
Here is a 2019 scouting report from BA, a partial excerpt from the write-up.
QuoteScouting Report: Anderson has four average-or-better pitches with above-average control that helps all of his offerings play up. He attacks hitters with a 92-94 mph fastball that can touch 96 mph, and his best offspeed pitch is an upper-80s slider. Anderson also uses an average changeup and curveball that are effective because of his ability to throw strikes with all four of his pitches in nearly any count. Evaluators praise Anderson for his ability to maneuver through a lineup multiple times, regularly keeping hitters guessing and off-balance with a strong baseball acumen.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/9887/shaun-anderson/
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https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/minor-league-baseball-playoffs-will-return-in-2021/
QuoteUPDATE: On Thursday, MiLB announced the details for the Triple-A format: There will be no playoffs in either the East or West Leagues, but each will have its season extended until Oct. 3. Each team will play two additional five-game series, beginning on Sept. 22 in the East and Sept. 23 in the West, with an off-day in between. The teams with the best regular-season records will then be crowned league champions.
The league's release did not specify the future of the Triple-A National Championship Game, which typically pitted the winners of the International and Pacific Coast Leagues in a one-game, winner-take-all game at a neutral park.
No playoffs in FCL. But, it is exciting that there will be playoffs again.
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33 minutes ago, Philip said:
Had to laugh at that.
FWIW, I think I remember that taking G-Rod at 11(?) was considered dangerous because I think he was expected to go in the high teens or thereabouts. But no one is complaining about him now.
I don’t know enough about the options to even begin to guess at the best pick, but I’d like a college guy, someone very close to the majors, very fast who walks a lot and has a great glove and can hit for average. I don’t give a damn about power. Ichiro has 117 career home runs, and he did ok.
i dunno who that might be, but if he’s available, I hope we take him.
I think there will be a time when our inventory is where it needs to be. Then, you can take some bigger risks with higher picks, but only on the right guys. Right now, Elias is still adding talent for the next competitive cycle and he cannot afford big misses, not yet. And by then, we should not be in the top 10-15 picks anyway.
I have seen Grayson since high school, so I was happy with the pick at that time. But HS pitchers is the riskiest demographic out there in any draft. But how else do you get them into your organization, right? A lot goes into the evaluation of a pitcher. What is the talent, the upside/projection, and the wear and tear? What is the make up? What would be their development plan, and is your organization able to develop that pitcher?
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4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Are you actually looking at his stats?
He improved every year?
Freshman- 26 walks, 55 K's 972 OPS
Soph- 21 walks, 65 K's 975 OPS
That's improvement?
Yes, the 16 games he had as a Junior were much improved.
But it was 16 games.
You look at this schedule and tell me he playing top competition in 2020.
https://arkansas.rivals.com/news/diamond-hogs-release-2020-schedule
He was a high risk pick. Now he might pan out and have a heck of a career, not saying it couldn't happen. But he was high risk. You really should get over your own bias and admit it.
Edit- I see you have admitted to him carrying some risk. I guess I'll take it.
There is some risk on every pick. Adley has some risk, but a very high floor. Martin had risk in that part of his value was alleged to be defensive versatility. Martin had a 60 hit tool, with 50 power. The risk was that he'd be a 2B, or a LF since his arm was 45-50. That isn't a great value at 1-2. (Look at his stats this year, 43 K's in 142 at bats) Pitchers, no matter how talented, have enormous risk. I think we are arguing about semantics, mostly anyway.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/bluejays/austin-martin-668885
I looked at the schedule. South Alabama and Gonzaga are not as bad as you think. And they lost to Illinois State. But Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma are high level competition. And he mashed against them too. Don't forget they have more data than you and I know about. Team USA, Fall Arkansas data and so on. The scout knew the kid (and the family) for many years, coached his brother.
His improvement each year may not show in stats as much, but it is there. You have to watch his video to see it. I have watched a ton of video on him. I followed the kid since he was the SEC Freshman of the Year. I was surprised at the pick, but then I went back and watched the video. His process really was impressive. He improved his physicality and defensive abilities. He played in about as many meaningful games as anyone ever has. SEC, NCAA Regionals, Super Regionals, College World Series and TEAM USA. The kid had been batting 3rd or 4th on all of those teams. He can hit, and he can hit for power. All players are flawed, but his production will be somewhere close to Martin's if he can get healthy. I will bet you a steak dinner on that.
We can do this all night, but there are already threads with this stuff in them. I am at work with nothing else to do, at the moment. I am not Mike Elias' caddy. If I think he screws up, I will say so. If he takes Rocker, and pays him slot, I will call that a bad idea based on the pitcher that he has been nearly all of 2021, regardless of what some feel his upside may be.
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19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I am not suggesting that!
Where did I suggest that?
I am saying he was high risk.
Can you, with a straight face, look at his college stats and not say he was high risk at 1-2?
Over his college career he had 54 walks and 129 strike outs, that is over 691 plate appearances. The major league leader in PA in 2019 had 747 so it's comparable to one (very full) season.
How does that translate to pro ball?
At 20 Kjerstad (SEC) 65 strikeouts in 300 PA. At 20 Mountcastle (A+ and AA) had 96 strikeouts in 538 PA.
The risk profile for any pitcher is much higher than a college position player. Injuries end a lot of pitchers' careers before they get started. The risk in Kjerstad's case is mitigated by the under slot signing. What was it again, a $2.1 million savings? They looked closely at the data of his swing and miss and found that he did not miss many pitches that he should swing at. In fact, his contact rate was excellent on pitches in the zone, according to Elias. This is something they feel they can continue to teach him. They felt his pitch recognition was excellent. And, they felt that he was about to explode into the top of the draft like Bleday and others have done in the recent past.
Not that I put much into mock drafts, especially last year, but he was mocked by many to go around 7th. The group of players after the first few could have gone in any order up to about 15. And after the draft, the same publications came out and said they did not value Kjerstad as well as they should have. They found out that teams liked him after all, just that no one was talking about it before the draft. Callis said this about two weeks after the draft. I posted the podcast here when it came out.
If it makes you happy, I'll say that Rocker is EXTREME RISK, and then I'll say that Kjerstad was a MEDIUM RISK. I would say, for the sake of argument, that Leiter is a HIGH RISK. I believe their profiles are that different. My opinion.
Can we just wait about three years and see if Elias is pretty good at this? He has surely made mistakes, and he'll make more. But to judge Kjerstad with no professional sample data seems silly.
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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:
You're kidding right?
He had an OPS of 972 and 975 in his first two years of college, as a corner outfielder. His K/BB ratio those first two seasons were over 2/1.
The opposition he faced in his abbreviated junior season wasn't highly regarded.
What part of that doesn't seem high risk for a 1-2 pick? As a point of comparison, as a Sophomore Austin Martin more walks than strikeouts and a higher OPS.
Are you suggesting that if they had no college season at all in 2020 Kjerstad would have been seen as a first round talent? I'm not sure he would have.
I never have understood why folks gloss over Kjerstad's issues making contact in college. He could bust and bust hard in the pros.
Reread what I wrote. He made some improvements to make more contact. Specifically, he swung less at balls outside the zone. His swing decisions became much better, and he did more damage. Minor swing adjustments as well. He improved every year. He competed at a high level, against top competition in the SEC and Internationally. He improved each year. Have we not talked about this enough?
They did play a moderate schedule, like all teams. They did play Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma though. And he hit well against them, including a 445 foot home run and a bunt single.
So no, I am not kidding. Are you kidding? Or just pushing the same tired anti-Elias schtick?
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I listened to it this afternoon. Very good interview, but nothing earth shattering or new. He talked about the added risk of taking a pitcher with a high pick. He also spoke of the dynamics of taking a high school player, and how scouts are able to judge their abilities compared to college players. He also talked about the virtues of judging intangibles. Elias stated he made mistakes early in his career in not spending time to get to know the player.
He spoke of the cooperative relationship between player development and scouting departments. He spoke of the PD folks involvement in the draft and the scouts input into the development process. This is awesome.
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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
Kjerstad wasn't a high risk profile at 1-2? They put a lot of faith in a rather small sample size.
I would think that Rocker would be an ideal pick for a team with a strong analytics department with all the bells and whistles cutting edge tech.
No, he wasn’t a high risk profile. They believed in the sustainable process he showed, and the small sample size you mentioned was all they had to go on for all of them. It wasn’t as though he wasn’t thought of as a premium talent prior to that.
Pitchers break easy. I think he is dinged up now. His grades right now do not show a value at 1-5 slot. If he wanted to take a $2 million cut like Kjerstad did, that might be worth it more so. But I doubt that happens.
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10 hours ago, wildcard said:
But Callis did not say why he does not think the O's will take Rocker. Maybe someone will reveal this in the next two weeks.
Rocker is a talented guy, but the risk profile is bad. Elias still is not in a position where he can gamble like that. Rocker’s mechanics are not what they should be. Sometimes his conditioning is not that great. And I wonder about his health with his velo down most of the year.
I get why you like him. I think we all like him, and want to be believe he can be like the guy who struck out 18 against Duke. But that guy has not shown up much. If they take him, he has to sign for less than our slot. It would still be a big risk. I would not like it much, and they would have their work cut out with him. The reward could be huge, of course.
My son competed against this kid for a few years in travel ball. I have seen him many times over the years since the age of 13. Him, Shane Baz, Matt Liberatore, Max Denaburg, Nolan Gorman, Lyon Richardson and our own Grayson Rodriguez, along with many more.
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Well, Rocker was sitting at 93 on the fastball tonight, from what I saw. His secondaries were poor, especially the slider. The change up occasionally flashed above average. Command was just awful. He competed, but he got hit hard. There has to be a health issue there. The mechanics are inconsistent, but the foundation is solid. He did not pitch like a guy that belongs in the top 5 of the draft.
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20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I don't think it's possible to save a significant amount of money at five.
They can save, but they would have to save on some other picks as well. As you posted, the slot is roughly $1.5 million less than last year. Maybe they go over slot in one or two other picks. Whatever happens, Elias has done his due diligence.
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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:
I disagree.
I don't think you hold Hays and Mountcastle back to keep them from losing rookie status if you don't care about farm rankings.
Like you said, we disagree.
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5 hours ago, wildcard said:
The lower Rocker goes in the draft there is a good chance that the Bonus is less. I have seen several mock drafts that has him going to KC at 7. I don't see why he would prefer KC. Montgomery is 12 hours from KC and Baltimore. So that is not the reason.
As far as Rocker turning down 6m, I doubt it.
Rocker is a Junior in college. And yes, he could go back for his Senior year but why risk injury next year if he is offered 6m.
He is a sophomore in college sports eligibility. 2020 does not count.
Maybe you don’t see why he might prefer another team, but if there is a preference, it could be nothing to do with the city and more to do with the organization. Let me be clear, this is only a hypothetical on my part, but that stuff happens sometimes. There is a lot that goes into this.
I cannot agree with you on this one. It is highly unlikely Elias drafts Rocker. There is a lot of talent, but extreme risk on him. That said, whatever he does, I am sure it is well thought out and has the overall goal to make the organization stronger. I don’t think he cares much how the publications rate the farm system. He talks about it to the fans, sure. But that is meaningless, really, unless there is a stable winning major league team in the next few years. This is not the time to take extreme risks with your #1, IMHO.
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A lot of people are assuming Elias will go underslot. Why? Because Keith Law and Jim Callis floated that out there? Between Houston and Baltimore, Elias has done that twice, out of seven drafts. (I believe seven is the right number) And in Houston, he was not the main decision maker. He was not the GM. The two times he has done it, Correa has shown be worthy of 1-1. We don’t yet know what Kjerstad is going to be, unfortunately. So, these rumors are nothing to get too excited about.
The draft of Appel, and the HS arm (name escapes me at the moment) did not work out for them. Again, he was not the GM, so we do not know what his thought were.
I will say that I am against taking Rocker, for slot. He is certainly a talent. But there are often times when he looks like a guy that should go in the middle of the first round. When you make that large of an investment on an arm, you better be sure that he has great medicals and the intangibles of a big winner.
Their internal formula will assign a future value to all draft eligible players. I would think he is in the top 10 or so.
People often forget that he could easily go back to school. This is his sophomore year. And do we know what his number is? It might be more than our slot. Does he even want to come to Baltimore? Some players do tell certain teams to not pick them, or they price themselves out for some teams. There is a lot that goes on behind the scenes. It isn’t a menu you simply order from.
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3 hours ago, 7Mo said:
Or maybe Michael McGreevy is a more projectable than either. Higher floor guy.
It'll be interesting to see what the choice is if there are 2 college arms Elias feels real good about and 2 HS bats that may have more ceiling but also more risk. If the internal evaluations say Bednar and McGreevy have a very good chance to wind up a solid #3 starter or say House and Watson are also on the board, what's the choice?
I'm not going to be upset if we don't follow the mock projections.
Bednar is probably a back end of round 1 guy. McGreevy is more projectable, but I know nothing of the intangibles on him. I would be very surprised if they go pitcher at 1-5 unless it is Leiter. Even that would be mildly curious to me.
I think it will be Watson or House, assuming Mayer, Lawlar, Jobe and Leiter are the first four picks. House might go to the Tigers, but I would be shocked if Elias goes with Jobe. Watson seems to be the guy. My only concern is the talk he ends up at 2B, or maybe CF. I do like the quick powerful hands and wrists, with a 55-60 arm.
Cowser is much more interesting than I had realized. I think he’ll hit, run and defend in CF at a plus level. The knock is only average power, but the bat to ball skills are not apparently in doubt. If Cowser played at an SEC school, he would be a top 5-7 pick. Maybe they think he can add more strength and power with maturity. Harry Ford is a bit of a wildcard still. I have seen where he is described as a winner, a grinder, with great speed.
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1 minute ago, 7Mo said:
Bednar was definitely better that game.
The key is what will each of those guys look like in 24 months? Who has ceiling and who has limits. And I don't think that information is readily available.
Absolutely. Maybe Madden is a guy that can increase the spin rate/axis on the fastball and breaking ball. Shape his pitches. Maybe the weight room holds the key for him. Bednar has a little lower ceiling, I think.
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2 hours ago, 7Mo said:
Good post. I think Ty Madden would be another college pitcher in consideration.
I thought so, too, and then I watched him against Mississippi State. The fastball velo is 95-96, but it was straight. The secondaries were good, but I was not real impressed. Only one outing, but I would say that Bednar impressed me much more in that game.
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A lot of talk about Khalil Watson lately. He is certainly an outstanding talent and I would be a fan of the pick if he is our guy. Harry Ford is another toolsy guy, and maybe we save a little money for another pick. Colton Cowser was Keith Law's mock pick, and there is a lot to like there with a guy who might be a CF with 60 hit and run tools, but only 50 power currently. Supposed to have excellent hand-eye coordination and barrel awareness.
I have not seen his name linked to the Orioles, but if they decide to go college pitcher, Mike McGreevy out of UC Santa Barbara is very interesting to me. Seems very much what Elias looks for in a college arm. A strike thrower with command of a very good four pitch mix, 91-93 and touches 96 with run and sink. Comps to Shane Bieber at this stage.
I would still not count out Brady House. The 70 power and arm are exciting. The only tool seen as average is his speed, the rest are above average. He is probably a very good 3B down the line, but is an very good athlete nonetheless. That profile seems very much what Elias has liked over the years.
Any of these picks are very good, depends on who is still there and what their numbers are.
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11 hours ago, 7Mo said:
The underslot pitcher IMO is Sam Bachman if the O's go that route.
There is a lot of heat on the fastball and slider. The mechanics are violent, the finish is poor and he falls off significantly, and he is inverted in the back side. He is 6'-01" 235 or so. I hope he is not the pick. Good stuff, but his profile screams surgery, and reliever, to me. Maybe a contender takes him and slots him into their pen sooner than later.
Now, Michael McGreevy out of UC Santa Barbara, him I could see. He is 6'-04" 200 and sits 91-93, touches 96, with good sink and finish. A good above average four pitch mix. A strike thrower. Comparisons to Shane Bieber in college.
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10 minutes ago, 7Mo said:
Have you seen any talk of what's different for him this year?
K's still a little too high, 50 in 156 AB's.
If he can get close to a JJ type, I'd be thrilled.
Nothing really specific beyond taking pitches that are not good to hit. Being a little less aggressive on borderline pitches. Buck Britton and their hitting coach have spoken about how the team works on these things. Matt Blood talked about it as well. I do not know about mechanical things. Ortiz obviously is exciting with the strength he added as well.
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2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:
Saw Grenier take a fairly difficult play and make it look real easy today. I want to believe in his bat but I can't quite get there yet. Hope he sustains what he's been doing, or builds on it.
That is my hope as well. Sort of a JJ Hardy type, probably not as much power.
2021 MLB Mock Draft
in O's Amateur Draft and International Signings
Posted
I have read that in various sources today as well. House is rated at 70 power/70 arm/50 run, and he is likely an athletic 3B, or at least a corner OF. So, I wish they would stop calling him a SS, despite the fact that some scouts supposedly said he might’ve able to stick…I’m out on that. Look at his frame. I think he fits Elias’ power profile nicely. All depends if he thinks the swing and miss that plagued him earlier is a concern.
Watson is not a SS either, not for me anyway. The hands are ok, but the actions and arms are not quite what I would like to see. In fairness, I have not seen any video from this HS season. So maybe he is better now. He is likely a 2B or CF, but 55 hit/55 power/65 run. I love the contact, barrels the ball with ease. Really great hands and wrists. It’s hard and loud contact all day.
I just cannot believe they would have any interest in Rocker, but ok. And Frelick just doesn’t have enough tools to me. I think some of those names are smoke screens. Davis’ swing was much better this season, and he shortened up a once very high leg kick and a severe upper cut. I would be ok with him, but Watson and House make the most sense to me.
If they go under-slot, I hope it is Cowser. That guy can really hit. If he was in the SEC, he would be in the top 5 solidly. Ford is a dude, and I love what I have read. I have not seen a ton of video on him. At this point, I am going to probably wait to watch much unless we take him. There is some talk by Callis he might slide and be an over slot in round 2. I’m not sure about that, but ok.
Nobody knows who the pick will be. I doubt that Mike Elias has made a decision just yet. The publications said they spoke with agents the past few days and that was what they are basing this on. I am torn about Watson and House, but those are my two favorites among the most likely scenarios.