Jammer7

You've made some great points on Kremer, and player development, in general, in this thread. The way Kremer struggled last night with command, it was obvious that something was off. He is either injured, or perhaps he had been using something to get a better grip that he cannot use anymore. My biggest concern is how he just wilted out there. I have to question his competitiveness after seeing him last night. He seemingly could not wait to get out of there. My 10 year old noticed and called him out.

I knew I would get you out on that point. As always, I respect your thoughts. I miss the game the way it was, sure, and I lamented that. I know change must happen. The rapid nature of it is difficult and leads to many having a distaste for the undulating nature of the game they barely recognize from the game they played 20-30 years ago. The PED’s and nerd ball strategies (I mean that in the nicest way) have lead to the three outcomes that do bore the heck out of me as well. I enjoy a great pitching match up, a well played 2-1 game. I am a bit of a romantic that way. I sometimes enjoy a slug fest too, but not every night. I love extra base hits in the gap, watching a guy steal and make great defensive plays. I miss watching a guy pitch seven innings every fifth night out, and occasionally going nine. I miss seeing a guy play his entire career with one organization None of that is a part of the game anymore. So be it. I do miss it.

I am onboard with the rebuild, absolutely. This team is absolutely terrible, aside from Means, Mullins, Mancini, Mountcastle, Fry and Galvis. Santander and Hays need to be on the DL. Everyone can see it. With young pitchers, there are ups and downs, but yikes! This is not a major league team, not even a bad major league team. We knew they were not good, but they played hard and things were looking up as improvement seemed evident. There was a major change, about six or seven weeks ago, when Chris Holt went on a mysterious leave of absence. It has been a nosedive ever since. I get the feeling that this team has basically been lost by Hyde. And I think he may be done at, or before, the end of the year. His frustration has been mounting. It is a shame, because I like him. Frobby, I am at the same stage. I tuned in for four innings last night. I could not take any more. Kremer looked like he had no command. I immediately thought of the sticky substance rule. I will look at his metrics today. But even worse, he wilted out there. Someone else said it in this thread, but after not having baseball for a time in 2020, I will continue to follow. I may not watch as much for now, but I love this game. I always will. And I love the culture of the game. As for the prosperity of the game, I am turned off by the marketing and politics of MLB. I am quite obviously not the audience they are trying to attract. They continue to turn off the most traditionally loyal fans. Attendance in Baltimore may never come back to the sellouts of Camden Yards in the 90’s. The Nats arrival seems to make that a pipe dream. I am also turned off by the constant meddling with our great game by Manfred and his band of merry idiots from Harvard and Yale. Can we just get back to playing the game the way it was for more than a hundred years, please? Every time I see the bases loaded with one out, and a RH batter hits a tailer-made double play grounder to 2B…but the 2B man was not playing there because of some shift. Or a hard ground ball up the middle and an infielder is standing there to make an easy play. I miss the great diving plays up the middle, and the well earned base hits that were customary throughout the history of the game. Billy Bean was right, he is partly to blame for what MLB has become. For me, the last time I went to a game, we parked three blocks away. We walked by the federal courthouse and were approached twice to buy any drug we wanted on the steps of the federal courthouse. That is just the experience I want for my family…what a hole. But that is not the Orioles’ fault. Society politics of the City of Baltimore is killing any desires I once had to attend games while in town. I prefer minor league baseball these days. And college baseball. Hell, I prefer high school and Little League/Babe Ruth baseball to MLB. The purity of the game is lost on MLB. That is sad.

A really great post. I was under the impression the MLB contracts do not do the college funds anymore, just what I was told about two years ago.

Each D1 team has 11.7 scholarships to give out. No one gets a full scholarship, and the top guys get about half of one. They do have other funds to use, grants and things like that. Kevin O’Sullivan (UF) told me that no player gets a full scholarship.

Sure. Depends on your point of view. He seems to me to be genuine and fairly transparent about his process. I find him sincere. Some may feel differently. He is no Mike Rizzo, or Jim Bowden. Let’s see if his way works, then we can see if the ego grows to match.

I was never a fan of the DJ pick. Still not. But, in fairness, that was the previous regime, and they wanted the power. They sacrificed defense for power/production. Elias had nothing to do with that. Grenier is looking up for the past 4-5 weeks. Check his AA stats. It was considered a reach, but the previous regime valued his defense that much. Saw him as guy with a nearly MLB ready SS glove. That group believed in moving prospects quickly and they’ll teach you how to hit, or whatever. When hired, Mike Elias was considered a bright rising front office star. A steal of a hire, who came along with his own rocket scientist. The theory of spreading the bonuses around is a sound one, but there are no guarantees. We all want this to work out. Just need to be patient.

Yes to all you wrote there. That is why the Ford under slot makes some sense, really. A very talented kid, strong and fast. Seems a lot like a young Austin Martin, except he can play catcher. A similar tool profile. A very interesting situation. It should really tell us more about the sophistication of Elias’ process. Some of the more popular publication picks are safe, and maybe a little lazy. When you take an undervalued kid and hang it all out there with the faith that you can coach that young fella up to be a star, at a lower cost. Man, that is conviction. We’ll see.

A well reasoned take. Have you looked at the crouch, leg kick and huge upper cut swing of Davis? Maybe the selecting teams and scouts feel that a swing change is in order, or maybe they like his launch angle and excellent power. I notice his hands at load are pretty far away from his body and I think he’ll have issues with pitchers busting him inside. I have heard mixed reviews about his defense. I have honestly not seen enough to say either way. The videos of his swing concern me, and the bat is why he is among the top prospects. I worry that he is up there simply because he is the most productive current college bat. There will be plenty of unpolished toolsy college guys in rounds 2-4 that may end up more valuable in a few years from now. Guys like Isaiah Thomas of Vandy and Robby Martin of FSU. Of Lawlar really wants 1-1 money, hard pass. See you in two years, kid. They would have to save about $2 million elsewhere in the top 10 rounds. You would have to think he is the next AROD or Griffey, Jr..

None of the picks you cited were actually under slot much, if at all. And Elias was not here for those picks. He famously did that with Carlos Correa and the Astros years ago, and it was very successful. They were able to add the McCullers kid along with Rio Ruiz with over slot bonuses. Correa turned out to be worthy of being #1. And other teams behind the Astros wanted him as well. They just did not tell the publications this because smart GM’s do not tell journalists what they really think until after a draft. Many people in the industry were not surprised about Kjerstad, but the journalists were. And when they dug around, they found out he was actually much more coveted than they were told before the draft. Callis, for one, spoke of this after the draft. I get that you are frustrated, and the board is all over the place with this and we have talked this to death. But Elias stated he believes he got an undervalued player who was about to explode into the top few picks if his junior year was allowed to continue. He listed the reasons that his improved performance and decision making was sustainable. You disagree, that is your right on a message board. But do you really think you know more about how to rebuild a farm system and draft more than a guy(s) who has done it successfully with the Cardinals and Astros in Mike Elias, Sig Mejdal and his crew? He is not always right, but wow. What if Elias thought Kjerstad will be the best overall player he could take there? Maybe his concerns about Martin’s defense or overall production compared to Kjerstad’s best LH bat in the entire draft was why he took him. And he smartly played the industry for a cost cutting contract, even though he felt Kjerstad was their guy. Or Boras may have been playing games with the bonus, or maybe Martin did not want to come to Baltimore and priced himself out of that pick. We don’t really know for sure, but we can have this conversation five or so years from now.

So, you have personally scouted Kjerstad? Anybody else who was available? How do you know he did not think Kjerstad was the BPA? Let me guess, you are basing that on the publication lists? And those lists are based on what they are told, as they are journalists, not scouts. Those lists are not what Elias uses to base his picks on. And if he did, he should be fired. Kjerstad has a heart virus that can kill him, and you call that a "misadventure?" It was something he contracted after the draft. What is Mike Elias supposed to learn from that? Good grief.

I think we agree on many things. He is a special talent, no doubt about it. Where we disagree is in the actual value of Gunnar’s previous experience. The alternate site was valuable for many things related to training, but it did not replace actual games played. Nothing they can do replicates this. A few weeks in the GCL, and he came from the Alabama HS ranks before that. Alabama is not a hotbed of talent or competition. I am not convinced that Elias is delaying development for a competitive window, but I can see the argument. I think there is a hierarchy in the glut of infield prospects, separated by experience and talent. Elias obviously values those things. We do agree that I also have no desire to have this discussion again. lol

I don’t see it as a shot, but I’m not speaking for Frobby. Several of us said, just wait a few weeks, it will happen. And it did. There was quite a frenzy of disgruntled people all over the net, but then he had a four strikeout game and that quieted some. He needs time to learn and gain experience playing in professional games.

Oh, okay. Thanks.

You are right, I should explain. There are some advantages to being up for a few weeks. The Norfolk season runs through September 19 right now. If they can make a playoff run, that would be more important to get that experience than to come be a part of the worst team in MLB. Elias has steadfastly said that he will not compromise the development of young players.

Yep. I am not saying your idea is bad, just that they will likely not do it. Especially not Grayson, or any other young pitcher. Catching wise, I think they want to get a strong look at Ciuffo and Cumberland. I can see either one, or both, coming up this year. If Severino does not pick it up soon, he'll join Sisco as a DFA. Who knows, maybe Adley somehow forces their hand, but there is no advantage in his development to come up.

I would be shocked if they call up either one. That service time thing.

He hablas. I think the only reason he is still here is his salary, but he is certainly more athletic than Chance. Maybe, the hope is that he regains the approach he had in the first month of 2020. Maybe it is just for some form of continuity. I was once a fan of Pedro, but that seems like a long time ago.

Thanks! That bio says he is known as a tough negotiator. It is always interesting to see how these shake out. You have to believe Lawlar has a bottom line number in mind. He is generally seen as a top 5 pick, but the number 1-2 talent. I tend to doubt that Elias will pay him slot, but if he falls to #5, he should.

Is he with Boras Corp?

Agreed, but he doesn't have to take below slot. He is 19, so he would re-enter the draft in 2023. He has leverage, but perhaps he accepts a slightly below slot deal if he likes the direction of things in the organization. I wonder who his advisor is.

I wonder if his number is a little higher than others want to pay. If that is the reason, there is less chance he ends up an Oriole. A Vanderbilt commit, generally seen as the top talent available. The Witt comparisons are not that great. I think he is more of a Barry Larkin type guy. From what I have read, some think this draft has great value after the first round with depth for many rounds after. If Elias pays full slot, it limits what he can do through round 10, depthwise. But, maybe this is a year where he pays at full slot, or close to it, for a guy like Lawlar. How many chances do you get at a guy like this?

Neustrom hit a very long home run, maybe two weeks ago, completely out of a ballpark. So, he does have tremendous power, just has trouble getting to it in games. Let’s see how he finishes. If Grenier can make major strides, perhaps Neustrom can make more consistent hard contact in the coming months. He was injured for large part of 2019, so maybe he just needs a little time.

So, is the tweet legit? Or is it just noise? @Legend_Of_Joey, can you say if this tweet has any credibility to your direct knowledge? Has any Orioles player spoken up about some mistreatment or neglect? Not asking for names, of course. I have known players in rookie ball who had host families. I always thought A ball and above the guys either had hotels with roommates, or four guys got together and shared an apartment. Of course those players also worked in the off season to make money as well. The only time a team used to provide housing was in Spring Training, or instructs. We now see the Dominican Academy will provide it, which is I believe is great. Those are kids from a variety of generally poor backgrounds. It protects the investment and gives them a chance to succeed. Keep in mind the player salaries are for March through September. So, $20K for seven months is not that bad to start. I remember in the 1980’s minor league players made about what I made as an E4 in the military. So, painting these guys as victims, well that is ridiculous. If they are not paying enough for your liking, find another job. Minor league baseball is not a social program. It is an opportunity. Perhaps there can be reasonable advances made, and I can advocate that, certainly. But these players are adults, not kids. Their family should be providing assistance and guidance. Since when are the team officials responsible for being the players parent? They should certainly assist within reason, but what is the average age of a AA player, 23 or 24? What is the age of personal accountability?

I agree, as a general rule, that we need to draft the BPA. But, what does that mean to Elias? Is that the best player right now? The best player based on projection? The best overall value over the next ten years? IDK, depends on which players are drafted ahead of us. Depends on the year. Is he feeling good enough about the depth of the farm to go BPA instead of under slot? Maybe he feels that his choices are not worthy of the slot the team holds in round 1, and that his chances of getting over slot value in rounds 2-5 may provide better value for their dollar. I think some of the Oriole rumors out there are all about posturing for the ongoing negotiations between teams and agents. I admit I do not know much about Frelick, other than what i have read and a few videos. I just do not see him as an Elias guy. I think House and Lawlar are more of his type, but perhaps their number is not what he is looking for. Maybe I am wrong.