Jammer7

I agree that it is interesting, particularly since he hasn’t done anything formal with the team. Several draft analysts have given Kjerstad another look since the initial commentary after the draft. Some, like Jim Callis, have admitted they underrated him somewhat. None have said he was as talented as Austin Martin, but admitted he belonged in the top 5 or so picks. Industry chatter among scouts they speak with must have changed their opinions, I guess. I also think they give a little more credence to the belief that Mike Elias is a very good talent evaluator and a shrewd decision maker. I wonder if Mountcastle’s unexpected performance by some bolsters the industry opinion of the Orioles player development group.

Frobby, great work! I hope they find a compromise and come to an agreement quickly. This kind of stuff creates bad mojo with one of your best young players. The salary for Teoscar Hernandez surprised me. Great explanation as to why, but still much higher than I would have expected for an Arb 1.

As interested as I am in them as prospects, I may be more interested to see what they become to see what Elias sees/saw in them to draft them. What adjustments they will have them make. I want to see just how good Elias is in spotting talent that the development folks can turn around. This is a big year for the Orioles development crew.

I can see Westburg or Baumann, absolutely. Looking further down the list, I think Joey Ortiz may be the most underrated and is my sleeper pick for 2021. I keep reading that he is stronger and vastly improved in his mechanics and approach. Elias and Blood have gone out of their way several times to praise him and his improvements. We'll see. Kyle Bradish may be the other who makes a big leap.

Thanks for sharing that. A very defensible top 50. Superficial commentary, but an informed fan.

Yes, Xander Bogaerts and Jurickson Profar would have been nice, to name a few.

You would have to ask Tony, but I assume it has much more to do with the scouting report than the figure he signed for. IDK

I agree, in general, with what you have said in these threads I do not think the lists are complete BS, but to be taken with a grain of salt. These lists are for fans, public consumption, not for industry professionals. Once you get past the top group of elite guys, everything else is based on projection. Certainly, personal bias plays a role. Badler and Sanchez are pretty well-connected and seem to put out solid lists these past few years. They both go to events and talk with scouts. I have personally seen Ben Badler at events here in the US, talking with scouts. As to what or how much he is told, IDK. I will say that it seems like the bonus amounts sometimes dictate or greatly influence rankings. Maybe there is a little something to that, depending on the team and their evaluation process. If the Dodgers or Rays give a kid $2 million, it is more credible to me than if it is the Brewers, Mets, or many others.

Great work as always! I am curious to see what impact the new technology (track man, etc...) deployed down there and the increased tournament/showcase events will have on the accuracy of evaluations and success rates of teams signings. Things have changed tremendously in the past 5-6 years in how players are measured and evaluated. Also, teams have put much more into infrastructure and player development internationally. They have revamped the nutritional intake of players and the strength and conditioning programs. They have made a much greater effort to educate the players in many facets of life in the US, including teaching them English. All of these initiatives may help the success rate of international signings and help the teams spend money more wisely. It’s one theory anyway.

Teams get commitments from the top guys at 14-15 years of age for X amount of bonus. A big portion of that money goes to the buscones. The buscones have contracts with the kids that outlines their payment %. In return, the buscones house, feed, coach, school, cloth and basically parent the kids for a few years. Some buscones have relationships with particular teams and more money from other teams does not sway the kids as they will be easily influenced by what the buscones want them to do. So the idea of we should just throw money around and sign as many “top rated” kids as possible will not work, and honestly is foolish. Great scouting and the ability to develop relationships with the buscones and the kids is where this effort pays off initially. It is like college recruiting. Then, they have to actually prove they can develop the talent to MLB. @Sports Guy has a good point that he has made several times. Often the best players are later bloomers and sign for lesser bonus amounts. Often, kids peak early and never really get better for whatever reason. Judging kids at 14-15 as to what they will become is really tough. I do not envy scouts on that job.

I had not read the rest of the thread until after my response. My comments were a little less critical, but poking a little fun. Easy mistake.

32 teams? Did I miss something? Yes, if it is a major improvement over what has been the status quo for decades. Drafting 30th would be a dramatic improvement if you had been drafting around 200th for 20 years, no? I get your point, certainly valid. But to build this program from the ground up in two years...it is impressive to me. You cannot just go there and throw around money. It takes time to build relationships and trust with the buscones/handlers/trainers and the families of the kids. They had to hire essentially a complete new scouting staff and revamp the infrastructure completely. Read up on Hernandez and Basallo. Not much video out there.

There is some sentiment that Maikol Hernandez could end up being one of the better prospects in this J2 class. He is just not as polished as some of the higher ranked SS’s. A 6-03 175 lb. SS, who gets some comparisons to Correa and ARod for his smoothness, arm and power potential. Mostly a line drive hitter, gap to gap, at present. And Basallo is the highest rated catcher in the DR. A LH hitting catcher at 6-03 200 lbs, he has a very strong arm and a power bat. There is some concern that he outgrows catcher down the line. There are a few more signings around the level of the highest ones in 2019, bonuses in the the $400k plus range. One is a LH power hitting corner OF, the name escapes me at the moment. The first two generally rank in the top 30-35 in BA and MLB. Overall, from what I have read, it is a well regarded class with the top group being their best prospects in a long time to sign internationally. And that is BA’s Ben Badler and the MLB guy, Jesse Sanchez, saying that. If that is bargain bin stuff, sign me up. Koby Perez has stated that next year’s class is going to be where they make a big splash as most of the top guys have been committed for two years. I think they have done an outstanding job establishing relationships and credibility thus far.

Maybe it isn’t necessarily slow. It looks that way to me, but that could be his decision process and/or pitch recognition.

Thanks for posting those. Seems to indicate what I thought, if I read them correctly.

@Frobby Does Sisco have trouble with a particular pitch in the zone? To me, his bat looks a little slow, especially with the inside fastball.

This signing having this much debate is what the off season is all about. Much ado about not much. It is a solid minor league depth signing. There is some talent there, so they'll take a look and see what this guy is today and what they can do to improve him. At best, maybe the Rangers did help him improve his hitting mechanics tremendously. And perhaps he presses Sisco some, since Sisco hasn't hit much either and Ciuffo's rep is that he is a solid defender. At worst, Chris Woodward's comments prove to be fluff and the Orioles release him in Spring training and he packs his bong and leaves. It was interesting to see his statistics and note how little he actually played in the minor leagues. He has only had more than 259 at bats in a season twice. In 2017, in AA he had 371 at bats and had his best year. Not that it was great by any means. The walk rate is good, strikeout rate is poor. My thought is he would have had to have some off field concerns to not play much more than he did, which the weed suspensions would point to. It isn't that the Rays don't know how to develop players, so something has been off.

I like the signing. There was talk the Orioles were going to take him with the 22nd pick in the first round. The Rays took him at #21, so the Orioles took Hunter Harvey. When I looked at the first round picks that year, it was a poor draft. Other than Kris Bryant and Tim Anderson, a lot of disappointment. https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker/2013

It was announced by Elias as a "non-sports medical reason." Or did that change? My post was just referring to the thought I had before it was announced that he was finishing his degree. I never doubted he was legitimately sick. Why would the Orioles say he was sick if he was not? That would make no sense. Like you said, it does not matter at all now. Time to get to work.

Thank you for sharing that. It was what some of us suspected after all. Good on Heston! Now get to work kid!

Yeah, I remember that he has very strong legs. I believe he also has elite extension out front at his release point and his stuff is out of the same tunnel as well. All of that does bode well. The downward plane angle , meh, we'll see. It isn't ideal, but the rest of it might make up for that.

He is not a physical guy at 6'-00", but he is polished and cerebral with great bloodlines. If he takes a pitcher in an early pick, this is the kind of profile I think Elias may go for. I'd like a little more physicality, but so be it. Watching his Q & A session the other day, I noticed he spoke about what he has learned about pitching prospects. Makeup was #1 trait for him. Don't sleep on Brady House 3B (Ga. HS). He pressed some over the summer, but has a long track record of mashing good velo against the best competition. The Binelas kid has defensive concerns that he is probably a LF, but he rakes and we know Elias likes LH power hitters.

We don’t know what Stewart really is yet. He needs to have consistent at bats to show it, either way. I am not a fan of Stewart’s overall game, he is going to have to show me. But I think he has earned the opportunity, at least until Yusniel Diaz comes up. If we did not have Chris Davis eating a roster spot, maybe then Schwarber makes sense on a one year deal. Personally, I would rather have people than actually have defensive value on the roster, though.

I agree with the sentiment of hating to lose Pop, but he is an unknown as to where he is at this time. I think Fenter is likely coming back. The thing is, we fans do not know much about what these guys have been doing for the past 9 months. Elias and his staff do. It may end up being the wrong call, like Yaz, but they will own it and move on. No front office gets all decisions correct. And we have yet to see the effects of what Elias is doing with his youthful player acquisitions. A year or two from now, we all may say there is enough evidence to make conclusions either way. For now, I do tend to trust their moves until there is concrete evidence to the contrary. If they stink, I’ll break out the pitchfork and join some of those who are critical.

You often bring up excellent points, and you bring a lot to the boards. However, I have yet to see you admit you are wrong, or even fail to have the last word. Over and over again recently, you are hyper-critical of Elias and his moves. But yet, these moves are based on information Elias obviously has. It is either information you have or you don't. At best, he interprets the information differently than you. Or maybe it is Sig, an actual rocket scientist, who interprets the data differently than you. These two guys have played key roles in two extremely successful organizations in the last decade, most recently rebuilding the Astros to become a world champion. So it seems they actually have proven they know what it is they are doing. I do not know you, but I do not believe those accomplishments are on your resume, are they? So, when we disagree with you, and we are inclined to go along with Elias and Sig, you should understand why. I am not saying they are always correct, certainly not. But chances are they know something you, and the rest of us, do not. I happen to agree with you about Pop, based on what little info we have on the two guys they took. But I admire their conviction for scouting for what they want and going for it. When they are wrong, I am sure they will admit it.