AnythingO's
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Posts posted by AnythingO's
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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Which part are you wondering about from last year, Frazier or the Orioles? Frazier was +0.8 on DRS last year. O’s second basemen were 3rd in DPs last year, about 18% above league average. So, the second basemen are slightly ahead of last year’s pace.
this part: " O’s second basemen have been involved in 25 double plays, most in the league and about 50% more than the average"
Is that because of SSS and more appropriate balls in play to all 3 IF positions or that our SS and 3B are starting more DPs because of GG defense.
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Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:
I like Mateo 1,2 or 9. Give me the speed with speed to manufacture runs. I don't like to block speed guys with slow guys in front of them who could potentially hold them up on the bases.
I vote for 9 because I don't want him feeling the pressure to drive in runs. I want him getting on base and wreaking havoc, dancing off 1st to draw 2 throws and then causing a balk or taking such a lead he can take 2nd without drawing a throw. Please leave him at the bottom so the new found approach can become muscle memory.
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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Fangraphs has a stat called DPR that measures runs gained/lost through proficiency at turning double plays. Frazier is at 0.0, so exactly average per this stat. Here are my own opinions: By the way, O’s second basemen have been involved in 25 double plays, most in the league and about 50% more than the average team.
I wonder if this was true last year as well? Might it be influenced significantly by defense at 3B and SS making more plays at a GG rate? Could something like that be teased out of the advanced data?
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2 hours ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
O'Hearn is here for 1b, Stowers is not
O'Hearn is here to DH and pinch hit, les is worse than Mounty defensively. Diaz is a different story but ME paid O'Hearn more for the bat not the glove.
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1 hour ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
I think we can't end 11 over. Either 87-75 or 86-76, 12 or 10 games over
Could with a rainout that doesn't get played because the outcome doesn't matter. So I vote for plus 12. lol
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3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:
It seems a little strange, at this moment anyway. I’m trying not to overthink this. My first thought is that O’Hearn should go down, not that he has been bad at all. His profile doesn’t fit that well if Adley and McCann are going to DH often between catching games. I would think Stowers stays and provides a LH bat with solid defense in the OF corners.
The question for me then is how many at bats will Stowers get while they are trying to get Santander on track? I watched Hyde talk about Santander’s 16 pitch at bat last night, and how he lamented that Santander is “really grinding right now.” They could keep O’Hearn as a bench role LH bat, and Frazier can play OF corners moreso than O’Hearn. IDK. I doubt Torrens is staying long term. Probably a guy they evaluate over a week or two and see what they have in him. See what his aptitude is and what they can fix.
I wholeheartedly agree with all of this. Hyde doesn't want Stowers to get a fair shot for some reason. He is 1 for 2 tonight and gets pinch hit for by McK against a RH reliever. You don't think KS is better in that spot than freaking McKenna????????? Sorry for the rant but IMHO Hyde hates Stowers like Buck hated Kim.
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Sooo, tin foil hat-conspiracy theory time. ME has Stowers and Vavra up, Hyde plays Vavra AND Frazier in starts that should have gone to Stowers. So, ME sends Stowers down to get regular ABs. Vavra isn't producing, Stowers gets hot, ME sends Vavra down and promotes Stowers. Now Mav gets hurt and Hyde wants a 3rd catcher cutting ABs from Stowers and O'Hearn. Stowers gets a start in LF where he has limited experience rather than RF where he is a better option than Santander defensively. Hays (hot bat) sits while Santander (cold bat, poor defense) plays. Ergo: Hyde hates Stowers and is hoping for a DJS performance to cement his opinion. I am only half kidding!!!
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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:
BTW, Mateo had an old Mateo at bat last night and it scared me. Swings at slider outside. Fouls slider on outside half. Check swing on high fastball way up for strike three. Seemed like he was trying to do too much last night. Don’t go homer hunting, Jorge!
Which is why I hate the idea of moving him up to higher stress position in the batting order because he is hot. Leave him at 8th, let this reworked approach become muscle memory, the sky is the limit.
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20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
If they go with a 3rd catcher this has to be bad for O’Hearn or Stowers.
Absolutely, and that a C will get regular ABs at DH forcing Santander to RF so it hurts both these guys who would be better in RF or DH than a C (Adley excepted).
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Why is Santander in the field instead of Hays?
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2 hours ago, Frobby said:
As someone reminded me above, they actually started 2017 22-10 before nosediving. Ironically, the fun ended when they were swept by Kansas City and then lost 2 of 3 to Detroit. They went 10-24 after their 22-10 start.
The 2005 team started 20-9 and also crashed and burned.
I know the 2005 team had other issues but the thing I remember most is Brian Roberts having his arm destroyed by a NYY while covering 1B.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
I don’t really understand the point. Mateo came into this season with 3.000 years of service. If he was sent down for longer than 20 days at any point this season, he’d earn less than a full year of service time and his eligibility for free agency would be delayed. But the possibility of that happening is so remote I don’t think it’s worthy of discussion at this point.
SG may be referring to Super 2 issues for Ortiz???? as a replacement for a failed Mateo ?????
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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
Agree it makes sense, but not sure I guy the O's bringing in pitching that costs a lot of prospects and a lot of money. Now, is there a starter out there that has 3-4 years of service time left? If so, that’s the guy to go get.
I have been bringing up ERod since last year for that reason. He makes $14M this year and then has 3/$49M remaining. He has an Opt out after this year he would likely exercise so he as a rental he shouldn't cost much. CoC and I couldn't figure out if he can be QO-ed again since he declined the BOS QO. If not, DET has little reason to hold on to him for the rest of the year. If they aren't going to get a pick would they say NO to Irvin and Norby??? It COULD be an opportunity to renegotiate his opt out and add a few option years at basically the cost of Frazier and Gibson. You have you stable inning eater for multiple years (assuming you can extend him) to go with GRod, Bradish, Means, Wells, Kremer, Povitch, Johnson. That should cover the Adley years
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18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
He had a couple nice takes early and then gave the at bat away.
He has the ability to take and he has exceptional eye-hand or bat to ball skills. That's what is infuriating with him. He believes he can put a good swing on every pitch he commits to and he is right. However, the farther outside the pitch is, the harder it must be to "direct" the hit ball. I think that is what Hyde is referring to. I believe Mounty can be Beast but he has to change his mindset. Is it possible with advanced metrics to go pitch by pitch and collect the result pitch by pitch? What I am thinking is the pitches say 2-4 inches off the plate, he is barreling but right at the RF so it "looks" like it should have a higher hit probability. If such an analysis could be made I bet he could add 0.50 the AVG, 0.75 to OBP, and 0.100 to OPS by just laying off those farthest away. Bat him higher so he doesn't he has to be THE RUN PRODUCER????? Do SOMETHING!!!
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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I can buy that they aren't handing Hyde lineups. I don't buy that they don't have significant input in allocating playing time in a more general sense. I think that If they want Stowers to get playing time, they will inform Hyde. I think Elias is 100% on board with how Hyde has handled Stowers.
I can agree with all of this, but I don't think ME-Sig value Stowers any more than Vavra so they would give Hyde the option. So since Hyde plays Vavra, they get Stowers more playing time in AAA.
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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:
You put him on the 26 man and tell your manager to play him. This isn't Buck, Elias is the boss and Hyde is the subordinate.
I don't believe ME-Sig are dictating lineups, just providing advanced performance metrics and suggestions based on today's opponent. Most of the decisions are self evident most days and Hyde gets to decide who to use in RF-DH. The Sig-Bot could see equal future value in Vavra and Stowers for different reasons so the 26th man decision would be a tossup. If Hyde is more willing to play Vavra than Stowers, replace Stowers with O'Hearn as 26th man. I just believe Hyde doesn't like Stowers like Buck and Kim. ME-Sig aren't going to force the issue for the 26th man. IMHO
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1 hour ago, Otter said:
Isn't it bizarre to think the O's organization would rather give corner OF starts to Frazier and Vavra instead of Stowers?
I refuse to believe that the ME-Sig-Bot that drafts and develops so well, thinks Vavra/Frazier are better in RF than Stowers. I put his lack of playing time on Hyde. Stowers should be here over O'Hearn, but that could be a Sig-Bot choice for the 26th man given that Hyde wasn't playing him.
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5 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Is Holliday the O's future SS or CF. He has the speed to do either. Does he replace Mateo or Mullins. The O's have 15 months to figure that out.
This is the answer for me, play out the year and IF Mateo is an .800 OPS, GG SS then ME and Sig have to decide who is the future SS or CF. Mateo played some CF for SDP and with his speed cover a lot of ground out there. He could be he long term answer IF he can learn the reads and get good jumps, he has the arm.
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8 minutes ago, deward said:
I can only point you to Frobby's response to owknows, as he said everything I would say, except better. All that work didn't stop Mateo from falling back into his bad habits and being an automatic out over the last month of 2022. Is this start encouraging? Yes, of course. It'd be fantastic for the team if it turns out to be real, sustainable improvement. His struggles to end last year give me reason to rein in my excitement until he proves he can keep this up.
As usual Frobby says things better than almost all of us and you have good reason to rein in your excitement. This start feels different than last summer and all his advanced stats this year point to definite changes, hence my optimism. I wish Mountcastle would commit to some changes in his approach but that's another story. lol
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39 minutes ago, deward said:
It's perfectly reasonable to set expectations based on previous performance and observations. Mateo is nearly 28 years old and had nearly 800 PA coming into this season, over which he was not a particularly good hitter, outside of a hot streak last summer than lasted a few weeks. Perhaps he will be a rare example of a player in his late 20s who makes drastic improvements that stick, but that would be a pretty shocking development. Resetting your expectations that dramatically based on a one-month heater (largely against some of the worst teams in the league) seems like letting optimism run ahead of common sense.
OK, you and owknows are turning this rain out into a Mateo thread so as one of the few that picked him for the breakout season I need to weigh in. His heater last summer was 6-8 weeks long depending on your choice of metrics. It came after concentrated work with the hitting coaches to refine his approach. Then late in the season they noticed something else to work on (toe tap vs leg lift) and he spent the offseason working on that and it's working. As a prospect he was #1 in NYY system ahead of Judge, traded to Oakland for a pitcher (Sonny Gray??). He had been top 100 for 3 straight years over 3 different lists (9 times total). Oakland moved him up a level and it didn't work. The sent him to SDP where he was behind Tatis-Machado and got 26 ABs in 2020. They cut him and we get him in August 2021. He is a highly talented and toolsy player whose development was hindered by trades and COVID. He has 775 ABs to date, 61 this season. Conventional thinking was it took 1,200 to 1,500 ABs to learn how to hit at MLB level. He has made himself into the player we see now. Will he cool off, of course. Will he revert to old form, at age 27 (B-day 6/23) with probably the best opportunity of his career, I highly doubt that. He has shown the willingness to change and reinvent himself.
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2 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:
Oh, I didn't just mean today, but overall, I would rather Gunnar have more ABs against lefties than Frazier or Vavra
I would agree re: Gunnar getting a [ass today but more ABs overall. I still would rather Stowers get ABs over Vavra or Frazier in RF
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1 minute ago, orioles22 said:
Perhaps. I get the feeling Wells will eventually be our best starter.
I think his stamina will lead him back to the BP. Better to be lock down for 75 inn than to struggle to get past 125 inn. Friday he was 95-96 (per the board) to start but settled at 92-93. He needed DPs to get out of Inn 5 and 6 and worked hard in inn 7. IMO 95 pitches is not sustainable for him and this was against a poor offense.
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Just now, orioles22 said:
I like that, but I'd had to move Norby. I'd rather include Kremer or Bradish with Erod taking that spot in the rotation.
Wells to the BP makes it stronger, Bradish/Kremer have more potential IMHO as SPs.
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18 minutes ago, SteveA said:
Interesting we only made the postseason in 3 of those 6 years we started 14- 7.
Cool so our "odds" of making the Playoffs have risen to 50%, lol
Adam Frazier 2023
in Orioles Talk
Posted
The Gibson DPs seems like a piece of the puzzle, was Lyles more a flyball pitcher? Does Mateo start more DPs because of his range and arm? That kinda stuff, pieces of the puzzle.