theocean

I posted this in another thread - but the Astros haven't spent any of that "saved" money. According to spotrac - here's the payrolls from 2013-2019 for Dallas, DC, and Houston. Houston is the 5th largest metro area in the country. Dallas has about half a million more people, DC has about half a million less. I calculated the average payroll between Dallas and DC and compared it to Houston's payroll for that year. The row at the bottom of the chart shows how much less Houston spent that year in comparison to the average of their closest metropolitan area teams. From 2013-2018, the Houston Astros spent $376.5M less than their closest metropolitan-sized-siblings. They finally spent more in 2019 - $17M more in payroll - after two straight 100+ win seasons, a World Series win, and three playoff appearances. But, I'd expect a team to be able to generate $17M after all of that. Altogether, the Houston Astros have spent $359.5M less than either the Texas Rangers of Washington Nationals since 2013. So, where'd all that money go?

I agree with you - the goal is to create a system that can sustain a winner over a long period of time. I think the Orioles really should be looking at the Cardinals as a franchise to emulate, given they have similar markets. But, I really disagree with what I bolded. 1998-2011 was so terrible because the front office was poorly managed and just straight up made terrible decisions. There aren't only two alternatives here: either tank or sign the 2020 version of Jay Payton. Free Agency is really advantageous to teams right now. There's no reason why the O's can't spend a relatively small amount of money to make the team much better - and then also have new assets to trade for prospects. That's something I think Elias should be doing, instead of throwing away $800,000 at the Nate Karns of the world.

This is a good point - whatever happens with Villar probably isn't going to have any impact long-term. I don't think anybody expects Villar to bring back some mega-prospect or for the Orioles to extend him. So, it's not like this is going to push back the rebuild a year or something. The controversy surrounding this issue has more to do with opinions on tanking, the health of professional baseball as a sport, and whether fans really want to engage with a really long rebuild. Which stirs up emotions and really goes beyond inside-the-lines baseball stuff. It's been really interesting to hear everyone's takes; I think they're all valid. Ultimately, it's up to the Baltimore Orioles to be able to feel the pulse of the fanbase and whether they think they can come out the other side of a scorched-earth rebuild in better shape than they were before.

I wouldn't rely one Forbes too much, they're known to guesstimate numbers. And, I wouldn't really put much stock into operating income or whatever - any company does creative accounting to make it look like they made as little money as possible to reduce their tax bill. But frankly, it doesn't really matter. Whether they have a ton of money or are pinching pennies, this move is pretty bad from a public relations standpoint. No matter what happens, the Orioles come out looking like a greedy corporation and that doesn't really fly in a blue collar town like Baltimore.

I think this move made me finally except the truth that rooting for a multi-million-dollar organization is completely illogical and absolutely stupid. It'd be like me rooting for a movie studio to make a profit on Battlefield Earth 2 or something. Like why do I care so much about paying $8 a beer and $20 a ticket to watch this un-entertaining crap? I'm not a kid, I shouldn't care so much about whether a bunch of millionaires hit a ball with a bat better than a bunch of other millionaires. Last year was absolutely the least I've ever paid attention to the Orioles or baseball. This year, instead of wasting time and money on a crap team that is no fun to watch, I think I might, like, do something that actually makes my life better lol. I dunno, maybe fishing? Gardening? This already feels so liberating. ?

Those people have money. They're deciding how to spend it. And collectively, they have far more money than the people who think-they-know-everything on the Hangout.

He's clearly been paying attention. He just doesn't agree with it. The Orioles' new process is by no means a slam-dunk to success.

He's a young, affordable pitcher with two years of control. He throws innings. There's reason to believe he could be pretty good if he can figure out a way to limit homeruns - which might get better by just leaving the AL East and Camden Yards. Not saying Bundy is some great pitcher, but he probably gets $10M+ if he's a free agent. He's got some value.

I wouldn't gauge the Orioles being better or worse by their record. Like Elias has said many times, rebuilds aren't linear.

There's also revenue from improved television ratings. Plus, merchandise and other variables. I really don't think the O's have to sign the 2020 version of Kevin Millar or Jay Payton to make it 70 wins. It'd be a big help for them to just like not start a bunch of waiver-wire pitchers every other night. I know everyone is still snakebite from 1998-2011, but those were some really poorly managed teams. We shouldn't be looking at that era as the only alternative to tanking. There's a lot of other possibilities that are easily obtainable.

As far as the Orioles go - 1.3 million fans in 2019. 1.5 million fans in 2018. That dropped off from 2 million fans in 2017 when they went 75-87 and 1.7 million fans when they were 69-93 in 2011. Lot of other variables there, but I think a 30 win improvement would definitely engage more fans.

Certainly, but I'd say the main goal is increasing profit. If your costs rise, but that leads to more revenue and profit - that's more desirable. Apple or Google certainly have more costs than a mom-and-pop store. At the end of the day, baseball teams play in publicly funded stadiums and there is a partnership there. Taxpayers pay for a nice, expensive stadium because they not only want a quality-of-life improvement in a professional team for entertainment, but also expect that team to provide economic stimulus to their community beyond their initial investment. If baseball teams are tanking, not providing that stimulus, and not honestly investing in their teams - there's a problem there. It's up to taxpayers to cry foul on that, and that's what you're starting to see people do.

Don't worry, I'm sure everyone will be complaining that we need to trade Mountcastle for two 17-year-old Dominicans in a few years.

That's true. He's one of the players I'm excited to watch next year to see if he can return to that first half success.

I think ideally you probably don't watch Adley catching every single day. Severino has a lot of value on this team if the O's plan to let Adley DH or 1B once or twice a week.

Amen, brother. I really like watching games within the MLB TV app, I can easily switch between games when the O's are on commercial - or if a game gets out of hand. Highly recommend it to anyone here who is a fan of watching games outside their hometown team.

Correlation does not imply causation. I know what you're getting at: the Astros. Houston is the 5th largest metro area in the United States, comparable to Dallas and DC: According to spotrac - here's the payrolls from 2013-2019 for Dallas, DC, and Houston. I calculated the average payroll between Dallas and DC and compared it to Houston's payroll for that year. The row at the bottom of the chart shows how much less Houston spent that year in comparison to the average of their closest metropolitan area teams. Dallas has about half a million more people, DC has about half a million less. From 2013-2018, the Houston Astros spent $376.5M less than their closest metropolitan-sized-siblings. They finally spent more in 2019, $17M more in payroll, after two straight 100+ win seasons, a World Series win, and three playoff appearances - which one would expect would be able to generate $17M. Altogether, the Houston Astros have spent $359.5M less than either the Texas Rangers of Washington Nationals since 2013. So, where'd all that money go?

Since when did so many people start rooting for a multi-million-dollar corporation to make a profit in a taxpayer funded stadium? Villar at most will cost $10M next year. If they cut him, that money isn't going to go in a piggy bank until 2020-whatever when they break it open to sign Adley to an extension.

3.9 WAR in 2016. Had a lousy 2017 and then posted 2.7 WAR in 2018. I think calling him a perennial 4 WAR player isn't quite accurate, but a 2+ WAR player probably is. And, that's not worth nothing. But it isn't worth a ton when he costs $10M and 2B is pretty deep right now across the league.

You don't know that at all. Could have been upset and finally felt like he needed to speak up.

Definitely a big deal. Mike Fiers was willing to go on record because he was so upset about it. It's not Black Sox big, but anything that degrades the integrity of the game in the eyes of a large portion of MLB's fanbase is a big deal. Like, can you imagine the media circus if the Nats lost and the Astros won? Can you imagine how many awful think-pieces journalists would be writing about how they don't know how to explain this to their poor children?

Betts is actually really good though. Harper's name is bigger than his performance on the field. If anything, you could say that losing Harper helped the Nationals because they could use that money for a far more valuable asset, Patrick Corbin.

The Sox firing Dombroski not even a year after a World Series win tells you everything you need to know. They have a bunch of money tied up in some players who are all on the wrong side of 30 and they're starting to feel the pinch. They owe a 34-year-old David Price a bunch of money for the next three years. They owe an injury-riddled Chris Sale a bunch of money through 2025. They owe JD Martinez a ton of money through 2022. They owe Nathan Eovaldi a bunch of money. They still are paying for Rusney Castillo. They still owe Dustin Pedroia $25M. If I were the Sox, I'd keep Mookie this year and let it ride. But, if they think they can reload their farm system and coast off the 2018 Championship until some of these contracts go away - I get it.

It's Twitter, so pushback is the norm. I think in general, this looks really bad for the Astros. They're obviously very talented, but it discredits anything they accomplished to a lot of people, much like Brady/Belichick are forever labeled as cheaters.