brvn52

2/3 of those had injuries delaying them (GrayRod/Adley). Elias would’ve had to hold down GrayRod for a month-plus after the injury to avoid Super-2. You could make an argument for Adley coming up late 2021. Mountcastle clearly has had things he did (and does) need to work on.

Ok, in that scenario it’s because of a lack of a need as opposed to service time manipulation. You don’t manipulate service time for guys of Stowers caliber

How? The only benefit of holding him down now (or for the last several weeks) is if he’s down until late April. I want him up. But he’s not down for service time reasons.

My question was - who has Elias failed to promote due to service time manipulation?

Where has he done that in terms of prospect promotions?

Who has he played service time games with? His process has been at times excruciatingly slow in promoting prospects to the top level, but he seems to follow his process. And, yeah, I'd be shocked if he holds Henderson down until ~May. And he's pretty much said GrayRod will be on the opening day roster.

Lol I love how people keep worrying about service time. Service time is only affected if any player is kept down until late April. It would be shocking if that happened for any of Hall/Henderson/Stowers/GrayRod. I could see Westburg staying down if there's not room in the IF to start the year. The next benefit to keeping players down is to preserve their rookie status in hopes of ROY honors in 2023 to net a pick in 2024. We're about 2-2.5 weeks from that.

Sounds like I'm in the minority, but I say yes. When I look at his progression last year, he played: A - 35 games (promoted to A+ around 6/20) A+ - 65 games (promoted to AA around 9/13) AA - 5 games This year, he's played: AA - 47 games (promoted to AAA around 6/6) AAA - 43 games I could see a similar progression where he plays ~20 more games in AAA and gets a callup around 9/1. Gives him a month in the majors, rewards him for a good year, and gets him a head start on 2023 (like they did for him in AA last year).

Cano looks brutal on the surface, but maybe a bit more intriguing when you dive in. 2018 #2 international prospect according to mlb pipeline (funny enough, behind Victor Victor Mesa). $750k bonus from the Twins. Seems to have decent stuff and a 1.90 ERA in AAA this year. I wonder if Elias thinks he could turn him into another reliable backend piece..

Excellent trade. Hurts emotionally, but smart move. Mancini can’t have a ton of value and you arguably got a top 10 guy organizationally (Johnson) a top 20-25 guy (McDermott) - in the best system in baseball. Meanwhile, you clear up close to $3M and, more importantly, create space for Diaz and Stowers to get AB’s.

Also noteworthy, while losing the McLean slot money, the O’s spent all but $40,350 of the 105%.

Who knows what we’ll find out. But I’m guessing the O’s lowered their number to McLean after they found something they didn’t like on the physical. McLean said no. And O’s upped their offer to Young. This is speculation but that makes me think he was their favorite underslot. I don’t see it, but hope they’re right!

Unless McLean said he’d sign for underslot, that shouldn’t be the case. If they assumed McLean would sign for slot - or anything overslot - then not signing him wouldn’t hurt our remaining slot money for late round underslot guys.

Interesting note by Callis. Sounds like McLean has the potential to be significantly overslot.

Pretty surprising. Good news! That gives the O’s just over $2M left in slot money (at 105%). Add $125k for every 11th-20th round signee. I don’t know what the holdup with McLean is. But O’s could now throw $1M at McLean (slot: $794k) and Walters each if they want.

One thing to note - if McLean doesn’t sign, it doesn’t affect the discussion on the overslot guys a ton. The extra room we’d have under the 105% would decrease by about $40k (we’d lose the extra 5% of the $794k slot) (**Note: I’ve been posting assuming he signs for slot. So him signing for slot vs not signing has basically no impact on the remaining pool amount). But we’d still be about $750k below our current slot levels and $1.56M below the 105%. Where things could get interesting is if McLean signs overslot. Every dollar over $794k eats into the amount we have for the other 3. I’m not worried at this point. Elias has earned our trust in *this* portion of the process IMO. We’ll see what happens!

So things are much more in focus. O's have $2.39M left (if they use 105%). $1.54M left (if they use 100%). With 11/12 players signed. $794k would be the slot for McClean. If he signs for slot, that leaves a little under $1.6M (based off 105%...$750k based off 100%) for the late round guys. Again, the first $125k doesn't count towards the bonus pool for those guys. Theoretically, they'd have $1.725M for 1 guy, $1.85M for 2 guys, or $1.975M for all 3. Divide those numbers how you wish. So still plenty of money to sign one (Showalter). Maybe two. But I'm guessing three isn't going to happen..

Wowww. Pretty surprised at Johnson.

If the O’s use the max of their bonus pool, they have about $1.62M + $125k/player to work with for Showalter, Young, and Walters. We’re currently $755,500 underslot. And the the 5% is $846,650. **this assumes McLean, Johnson, Weston, Crampton, and Chaney sign at slot value. Underslot for a guy like Johnson would give a little more.

Ardoin signs for slot value ($571,400). Trace Bright signs for $26,800 underslot ($400,000). O's are ~$761k underslot so far with Holliday, Beavers, Wagner, Fabian, Ardoin, and Bright signed.

O's are ~$761k underslot so far with Holliday, Beavers, Wagner, Fabian, Ardoin, and Bright signed.

I doubt the tax matters a ton at this point. The O's aren't going to not sign a player because of actual financial issues, but the bonus pool limit. Each of these guys are worth more to the organization than their signing bonus. O's can likely spend about $1M on 2 guys. I think that's enough for Showalter + Walters. I'm guessing Showalter signs for $1M. (No backing to that - just reminds me value-wise of Willems, who signed for $1M). Maybe they save enough money and can sign all 3. Elias has been good with signing all his guys in these drafts. I can't think of any major players that have walked. Elias seems to have a plan, knows what he can do, and executes. It's not always flashy, but he has done well at signing the guys we draft.

Ruiz and Callis have both reported full slot for Fabian. I don't know where the MLB tracker gets it's data from, but it seems to be off. Plus, ~$650k just seems to be really low for a guy of Fabian's caliber. I get the "he wants to play for the O's" narrative, but I just don't see him dropping that far to make it happen.

"Barfield said “it’s too early to say” whether Jones will be ready for the start of spring training next year." Yikes.

I think the good news is they're in a place where they can sign all remaining top 10 round picks to slot and easily sign at least 1, if not 2, of the 3 overslot guys.