brvn52

What is the fastest (realistic) timeframe for this all to go through? Are we talking a few weeks or a few months?

Simply put: if you could add one O's prospect down the stretch to help this team win more games, who would it be? Ignore who will be sent down - simply which player would best help the team now?

I have my own tracker from last year. Looks like I didn’t remove the McLean money, but everything else should be accurate. https://docs.google.com/file/d/10Vmxg_nM1EQCgXr2yiB03XuFqmHBjxFv/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msexcel I can look more later, but I’m guessing the big thing is you can spend 105% of your allotment. Meaning (w/out McLean) the O’s could spend $16.945M. Which is about $806k of additional money to the rounds 1-10 savings. I’m guessing that’s the difference.

I see a pitcher going back in a deal for another starter. My guess is Kremer. I don’t think we see Ortiz dealt. But something like Kremer, Norby, Stowers for a starter makes a lot of sense.

Don't hate it. Don't love it. Decent addition. Hernaiz had a long way to go - he had to upend some combo of Henderson/Mateo/Urias, Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby, not to mention Mayo and eventually Holliday, for IF action. I realize everyone is concerned about him taking a rotation spot. But the reality is this team needs to cover 1400-1500 innings next year. Gibson and 4 young arms has the potential to do a lot of straining on the entire staff. This gives us 160-180 innings with a high floor. This allows us to *start* with Gibson, Irvin, GrayRod, Bradish, Kremer/Wells/Hall...and adjust accordingly throughout the years.

The filing is that they secretly bought shares. So that would allege that he didn't know originally. At what point did he learn? That we don't know.

I said 1/10 or less, but even that's I'm not strong on. At this point, I would mostly rather our young guys play and see what we have. We could use some innings, but I'd rather see GrayRod/Hall/Bradish/Kremer/Wells on the mound than him (not to mention we have Gibson and eventually Means). They won't all do better, but if we're not going for top tier guys, let's use 2023 to see what we've got.

Maybe I need to listen to the interview again, but I didn't take it as Connolly knowing anything, per se. Just poking around a bit. And Angelos responded with a specific number. It just seems like this is information that should've/would've come out with the original lawsuit. The timing is interesting. But you know how this works much better than I do, so I'll defer to you.

Wasn't sure whether or not to start a new thread for this. I wonder if the conversation with Connelly sparked this. Could John saying they own 74% of the team have caused Lou to look into things?

I think the level of effort into finding bounce back players has changed. Previously, the O's tried Hail Mary attempts on minimum salary guys like Ruiz, Valaika, etc. Their more 'expensive' signings were on guys like Iglesias, who was here for defensive value. They also took fliers on guys like Mateo, who hit. But all of them were no risk, with a lottery ticket of upside. This is pure speculation - but boom/bust guys make the most sense in a tank. We don't need a 1.5 WAR 3B (over a replacement level 3B) when we're winning 50 games. Things are changing. Elias said before 2022 we'd invest some funds on the ML roster. That was mainly into Lyles, who did improve. Things worked out immensely in the pen with several guys. This year, there's been multi-million dollar investments in Gibson, Frazier, and McCann. All are coming off 'down' seasons. I think the O's level of success at reclamation projects from 2018-2021 can't really be compared to now. We will see. But this trio is the first big investment Elias & co. has made into something like this. And I think we need to wait and see. Plus, at this point, what choice do we have but to trust the process?

I said 86-90. There's a few reasons. O's went 66-55 (.545) after calling up Adley, or a 88-64 pace. Urias/Henderson over Odor/Urias at 2B/3B should be worth a couple wins (if Henderson is a 2.5 WAR player, that's a 3 game improvement over Odor). Bullpen may regress some, but I'd expect 1 of Kremer or Bradish to take a step forward. GrayRod should be an improvement over our backend guys, with major upside. Gibson/Lyles should be a wash. 16 less games vs. the AL East could be quite helpful - potentially ~2 more wins. Young, stellar prospects like Cowser, Westburg, Ortiz, and Hall also have a chance to make an impact. In all, I think the young talent makes this team about 5-10 games better than last years squad.

You didn't see all the prognosticators saying we'd win about 80 games last year? Yes, Pythagorean/Expected W-L/etc.

I don't believe our off-season is anywhere close to over. I'd assume we add another pitcher and a LH bat, if not more. Plus a backup C. That said, much of our "liftoff from here" off-season has been based off the premise we're going to buy - with the question being 'how big?' However, what if we change the question to 'how good are we right now?' Last year we went 83-79, slightly better than our expected win-loss (79-83). We added Adley in May and Henderson in September. We'll be adding GrayRod soon. Waiting in the wings are Cowser, Hall, Westburg, Ortiz, and more. In addition, subtractions of Odor and Chirinos should be a net positive. So, if the season were to start with essentially our current roster, how many games do they win?

I'm getting pretty close to Rodon or bust. We don't need more mid-rotation guys. We have Kremer, Bradish, and Wells (plus Gibson). With young guys like GrayRod and Hall coming up and Means eventually coming back. All of those young pitchers will be cheap for the next 3-4 years. Invest in the front-end of the rotation. *And if we don't sign Rodon, I'd rather trade for a Burnes, Woodruff, Lopez, etc. than drop $15M/year+ on a #3. **Bassitt could have solid value. I'm just wary of giving 3/4 years to a guy in his mid-30's. He has been excellent over the past 4 years.

I love the idea. We could use some pop and he should be reasonably priced. Slot him in mainly at DH. bWAR last 4 years.. 2019 - 2.8 2020 - -0.5 (57 games) 2021 - 3.1 2022 - 3.0 Taking out 2020 (I get that's selective, but it was a shortened year and any slump is hard to recover from statistically), he's essentially been a 3 WAR player while having consistently negative dWAR's. Let him feast on the short porch in right. Would definitely prefer a shorter deal. I wonder if something like 2/28-2/30 could get it done.

Makes sense. And it could be a dud. But Elias' rhetoric is drastically different than any other off-season. For the first time since I can remember, we have a plan we're sticking to, and following it. That excites me.

That's definitely up there. But missing on Vlad was rough. I was young, but '96 I'd argue was more impactful than '04 IMO. But that's a tangent to this conversation.

Sounds like it is a top 3 pitcher, minimum, with potential for a second #4/5. Which makes sense with what Elias has said. Sounds like they expect GrayRod in the rotation. Hall has a shot. But then there's Kremer, Bradish, Wells. Not to mention Voth, Watkins, etc. And means midseason. We're in a really good spot where we'll need to bump a good pitcher from the rotation if we add 2 guys. I'd love to add a FA SP - and then package 1 of Kremer/Bradish/Wells for another pitcher. What I'm most intrigued by is Elias saying his wants to add 2 bats. Gotta think the main places we can improve are 2B/LF/DH. I'm intrigued by who he'll go after. Regardless, this is really excited. Most excited off-season we've had since at least 2014...maybe since '96..

Yeah, presumably the 3rd (bat first) catcher would have another role on the team with their bat. A name that intrigues me is Daulton Varsho. Not sure if how we'd match up with ARI though.

I would take it a step further and say I'd like to see the O's go with 3 catchers. I'd love to see Adley catch ~100 games and DH for another 40. It keeps his bat in the lineup but doesn't kill his knees. But DH'ing Adley is always risky if you have 2 catchers because you lose the DH the other catcher is pinch hit/pinch run for - and you have no catchers if something happens to Adley. Adding a 3rd catcher gives Hyde flexibility to pinch hit/pinch run for the backup C - and it keeps Adley off the field to rest fully on his DH days. My thought would be a bat-first C (who could also play 1B) that you could occasionally DH/1B, as well. And then a glove-first catcher, who can be a late inning replacement when games aren't close. With a 26-man roster and good positional flexibility on our roster, I think we have room for 3.

O’s supposedly offered him $3M (slot: $1.81M) but he got snatched up 1 pick earlier. Red Sox (who he apparently hadn’t talked with) couldn’t come to a deal with him (I presume they offered slot). I’m guessing he thought he could make more a year later (he didn’t), the O’s wanted him, got him, and the story that he just always wanted to be an O sounds nice.

I get he's struggled lately. But if he's struggling and isn't promoted, that's not manipulating service time.

They’ve said he’ll resume starting next spring. If he’s up for a month+, they’d have to hold him in AAA for 2 months next year. Really don’t see that happening unless he implodes.

If they deal him this offseason, I doubt 40 games of ML experience & service time plays much of a role in his value.

I said I thought you could make an argument for Adley in 2021. But the counter is he only played 43 games in AAA by the end of 2021. Elias has definitely been slow to promote top guys, but it’s disengenuous to assume it’s only because of service time manipulation. GrayRod had 11 AAA starts. He was clearly about to get promoted. And then had an unfortunate injury. You can disagree about how Elias promotes guys, but this wasn’t a service time thing. Same thing with Mountcastle. If they wanted to manipulate time, why not keep Hall down until May? Or till September and preserve rookie status? Seems an unlikely time to promote him. Unless service time isn’t the concern.