brvn52

So with Wagner signing for (slightly) above slot, O's have an extra ~$734k to work with. I still think there could be some savings with Bright and Johnson - a maximum of $656k (although I doubt it's quite that much). I'm guessing the O's have end up with about $1M extra to work with - plus the $125k/pick (for rds 11-20) and ~$847k of the 5% buffer. In total, I'm guessing the O's have about $2.2M to spend on Showalter, Young, and/or Walters, if they want to. For some frame of reference: $1.5M = pick 51 $1M = pick 68 $750k = pick 85 $500k = pick 120/121

Interesting. I’ve thought the opposite. Seems like they’re trying to knock out the big pieces (top 4 picks have agreed to terms, 3 officially signed) to see how much we have for the late round overslot guys.

I think the tracker is just wrong. All reports (local and national) I've seen have been for full slot value.

My updated numbers have us coming in at $772,000 underslot so far. I think that number could grow with Trace Bright (5th round) and Preston Johnson (7th round). Both are senior signs. Seems like there should be plenty of money for at least 2 of the round 11-20 overslot guys, hopefully all 3. Generally, Elias has done a great job of knowing what he needs to sign overslot guys. If case it's helpful, I uploaded my draft picks doc to google sheets. I'll try to keep it updated as signings come in.

I'm saying to preserve rookie status for 2023. So 45 days or fewer, 130 AB's or less (for batters), and 50 IP or less (for pitchers). If they're still rookies in 2023, they could net draft picks (in 2024).

I put together what is becoming my now annual excel sheet for the draft. The only signing so far is Holliday at $8.19M. It seems like most picks will be at slot, with Bright and Johnson potential underslots (could save a total of $656k), and then Showalter, Carter, and Walters being potential overslots. With the $657k savings of Holliday + the potential $656k savings from Bright/Johnson (this is just my speculation), the O's would have $1.313M (plus $125k/player) for those overslots (Showalter, Carter, and Walters). Meaning, if they sign all 3, they could have as much as $1.688M to work with. That sounds pretty tight, but not impossible (3rd round slots range from $577k to $794k). **Note: this doesn't include the 5% buffer, which is about $847k, so not an insignificant number

Cool man. I admittedly am unable to read the board as much as I used to (with little ones running around) so I could've easily missed this. But I haven't seen it discussed elsewhere. Apologies if this has been talked about.

Obviously, under the old CBA, there was an incentive to keep players down for a few weeks to gain an extra year of service time. Under the new CBA, players that finish in the top 2 of the ROY automatically gain a full year of service time. In addition, if a team has a player on the Opening Day roster and that player finishes in the top 3 of the ROY rankings, the team acquires a draft pick. Could there be a delayed service clock manipulation - one that won't affect FA, but other benefits? And could this impact the O's at all this year? Meaning in terms of Gunnar Henderson, DL Hall, and Jordan Westburg (GrayRod is likely a nonfactor in this conversation) - is there an incentive to keep them down until the beginning of September to preserve their rookie status? I'm not saying I approve of the strategy (I don't know where the theoretical picks would be - and they're not guaranteed), but could this incentive impact a call up date? I'm generally against external factors impacting a players development. But if a 2 week delay in a promotion created a, say, supplemental 2nd round pick - in a year we're likely not competing - it could make sense.

MLB.com draft coverage saying they think Zach Showalter will go 11.1.

MLB.com saying Zach Showalter will go 11.1.

Who do I want? Brock Porter. But that's a pipedream and we probably don't have the cash to sign him anyway. Bradley Loftin would be a nice pickup at 81. Who do I think? Sonny DiChiara somewhat fits Elias and co.'s type. At least with the bat. Huge year this year at Auburn. Very similar to Wagner in that sense.

I think that happened about 4/5 years ago. ;)

Agreed. I'd be disappointed if, barring someone blowing up (Vavra, Mateo, etc.) or a FA signing, we don't see all 3 by OD 2024.

I think based off Elias' comments Sunday, we'll see Gunnar in AAA soon. Maybe I'm ready too much into it, but he seemed to undersell him in AAA by saying 'we hope to see him in AAA at some point this year.' Barring injury, it's hard to see him not in AAA this year. That almost makes me think he's real close. For what it's worth, he was promoted from Delmarva to Aberdeen after 35 games (157 PA, .944 OPS) last year. He was promoted from Aberdeen to Bowies after 65 games (289 PA, .775 OPS). I wonder if we could see a similar situation this year. Called up after ~40 games (currently has 36 games, 160 PA, .989 OPS). Spend most of the year in Norfolk (65ish games). And then be a September callup in Baltimore.

As much as I'd love it, there's no way Elias promotes that aggressively (based on what we've seen). Come June 2023, I think that's more of a possibility. But I still wouldn't be surprised to see the O's sign an infielder this off-season.

Personally, I’d love to land Javy Baez. Start him at SS, but there’s flexibility if he needs to move around some once prospects come up. Won’t break the bank. Been on winning teams. Power could play up in OPACY. Add him and a SP (or preferably two) and the team becomes much more respectable fairly quickly. I don’t think this is the time to lock players into a position for 4+ But if you have a guy (like Baez) that can move around, that brings tremendous value.

Zooming out, Mountcastle has now played in 138 career games. Over 547 PA (500 AB's), he has a career line of .282/.329/.486 (.815 OPS) with 25 homers, 35 BB's, and 141 K's. 1.4 bWAR Starts by position: 1B - 55, LF - 41, DH - 38 Overall, very happy with that for his roughly first season's worth of work. Plenty of room to grow, but we should be thrilled if this is roughly his floor.

I would assume no since it’s all deferred. But I’d guess he’d count $9.16M for 2023-25, $3.5M for 2026-32, and $1.4M for 2033-37 based on his deferrals.

Right...where does it say it's based off AAV though? Luxury tax threshold will definitely be an issue. The floor is an attempt at easing that issue.

I must be missing something...where did you see that would be the deal for the salary floor? If that was the case, you wouldn't even need to frontload much then, just sign rookies to long-term deals because that would bring their AAV up.

My 2 cents...this is potentially in tension with what Elias wants to do (streamline resources to the international marketing, scouting, and development as opposed to the ML roster), however the transition of resources to the ML isn't too far away. I wonder if something like this could speed up the process. What I'd love to see is Elias use this to lock up our top talent - Adley and GrayRod. He could frontload deals to help raise our 2022 payroll while locking them up for up to a decade. Pairing that up with a short-term overpay on a FA SS (I'd love Correa or Seager, but my guess is they'll get too long of a deal. Maybe a guy like Baez) and a FA SP would allow us to hit the floor while still allowing for plenty of long-term flexibility.

Obviously, there's a long way to go before a new CBA is reached and who knows how much this is posturing by the owners vs. a real possibility, but a salary floor would have significant implications on the way the Orioles currently function. By my extremely loose count, the O's are projected to have just around $40-45M in payroll next year ($9M in previous deferrals, ~$20-25M in arbitration, $10-12M for the rest of the roster). That would leave us needing to add at least $55M in payroll by next spring. Again, this is far from a reality. However, if MLB were to move forward with this, how would you and/or how do you think Elias addresses the need to add such a significant amount of payroll? Free agency? Locking up young players (Adley, GrayRod, Mountcastle)? Re-signing established pieces (Mullins, Means, Mancini)?

If I’m putting everything together, it sounds like the O’s will pay nothing in 2022 and then ~$5.6M in 2023-25, in addition to the deferrals. With that - and freeing up a 40-man roster spot for 2022 - this is about as good of a scenario as the O’s could have hoped for.