Moose Milligan

I think Elias would prefer to extend these guys. I don't know how more clear I can be. I don't think Angelos wants to extend those guys, I think it's safe to say that he doesn't want to spend money. I do believe that Elias is confident enough in his scouting skills and the scouting department that he's created to fill the void if a guy like Gunnar walks in free agency. Maybe not a 1 for 1 trade in production but I believe he feels that in the aggregate (to borrow a Moneyball phrase/idea) that he can produce enough talent overall to make up for guys that leave because Angelos didn't want to pay them. That doesn't mean that Elias doesn't want to extend them. It simply means that I think Elias is confident enough to make up for losses because Angelos is a skinflint.

Yeah, I think there's a delta here on the board with what we feel like they should do and what they're actually going to do based on their track record. I agree that they should be packaging guys like Norby, Stowers, Cowser/Kjerstad, Ortiz...I don't know what good it does to start the season with all of those guys still in the organization other than to say you have depth for depth's sake. Getting back to the FA list, what guys on the list do you think are realistic? Would you be upset if they got Wacha?

Does he throw a gyroball? Remember, that's the pitch that Dice-K threw and it would break twice.

Touchy, touchy SG. Sorry for giving you a hard time, I regret ruffling your feathers even though it's a wonderful plume. Because I think Ed-Rod SHOULD be realistic, even though he's not. The whole point of that post was to get you and everyone else to agree what a definition of "realistic" so we can have a conversation with that definition in mind. I don't think it's realistic that they do acquire a top 3 starter. They're going to bank on a full year of a healthy Means, they're going to bank on that 2nd half G-Rod is going to be able to throw close to that for a full year and that Bradish can repeat what he did.

No, I don't think it's realistic to think that Angelos will give a 4-5 year, 9 figure deal. But if we're talking about what's realistic, let's agree on a few assumptions. First, Angelos isn't going to spend the money that you and I and everyone else thinks they can or thinks they should. He hasn't and doesn't appear to be coming close to doing so. You and I can agree that they can afford a 3/75 deal (I wanted Sonny Gray) but you and I can also agree that they're not going to spend that. I doubt they'd spend even 3/60 or even 3/50 because they haven't in quite some time. That is to say I think if we're going to keep coming back to what is "realistic", we need to examine what the track records have been. Second, I don't believe Elias is about to trade any prospects, even though you and I agree that he should. Again, if we're talking about what's "realistic" we need to stay in the parameters of what's transpired so far over Elias' tenure here and he hasn't been willing to part with prospects very often. He did for Flaherty at the deadline last year which was a flop, and he parted with guys like Prieto, Rom and Showalter, not guys like Norby, Ortiz and Cowser. So he's shown us that he's going to part with guys that are outside of the top 15, top 20 prospects in the system. On a similar note, he traded Hernaiz for Cole Irvin. These are not the big deals we're craving here, they're not the big signings, trades and moves that we talk about on here and think are realistic just because we think they should be. And again, I agree that Elias should be able to sign a pitcher for a 3/75 deal, I agree that he should be trading some of these upper tier prospects but his track record shows us that he's not willing to. When someone shows you who they are, believe them. And when Angelos allows Elias to step up and buy a pitcher in free agency at a 3/75 level deal, I'll believe it. When Elias trades some prospects that are on a top 10 Orioles list, I'll believe it. Until then, I'll believe what's "realistic" is very different from what you might think it is. So I'm not sure what pitchers are "realistic" from a trade perspective, as I mentioned I don't keep up with MLBTR and the CBS sports pages and whatever else is reporting rumors. It's exhausting. Here's a list of free agents, the top 30 pitchers that are available. https://www.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/2024-mlb-free-agent-rankings-top-30-pitchers From this list, I don't really like any of these names. Keep in mind, the pitchers I think that are "realistic" are guys in the Gibson and Irvin mold because that's the reality that the Orioles have been dealing in. But if I absolutely HAD to pick 3 off this list, it'd be Lorenzen, Lugo and Wacha. Mind you, those are not guys I am excited about, but I think they're more in line with what the Orioles will do because that's what the Orioles have done. In regards to being entertaining, I'm disappointed in you because I haven't responded to you with a dick or fart joke or a gif. If you can't tell when I'm trying to be entertaining after all these years, that makes me sad.

It's a reasonable request, I mean you start a thread and then shoot down every player that people come up with. I was going to say Ed-Rod, too, but apparently that's not realistic for some reason. Quite frankly, I don't have enough time to look up who's allegedly on the market via trade, it's too hard to tell to begin with. If we're talking free agents I'd kick the tires on Snell, but that's probably not realistic either. Stroman, Seth Lugo would be other free agents I'd want the Orioles to consider.

SG, since you're controlling the conversation here, give us a list of candidates you think are realistic and we'll pick from those.

Probably. He won’t be hurting for his next move that’s for sure.

I don't think Elias is the key figure in holding out in getting these guys signed. Angelos is and always will be. But I think Elias is confident, excuse me, arrogant enough to think that he can operate with those handcuffs.

Ok.

2025? Maybe. Or you have a two headed catching 1B/C monster.

Do it for Basallo while you're at it.

The dude said it himself back in 2018, I'm not making it up. https://www.mlb.com/news/mike-elias-introduced-as-orioles-gm-c300896840 I'll now wait for your reply that says that he didn't really say that, that's not what he meant or somehow twist what he said to further your argument about how I "think so little of Elias" that he believes he can just get MVP level talents "on a whim." Nowhere did I say that Elias thinks he can do it "on a whim." Nowhere did I say that Elias thinks it's easy. But Elias' goal since Day 1 has been crystal clear...and that is to have a continuous amount of elite talent flowing through the pipeline. There are several obvious reasons as to why he'd want to do that, IMO one of them is to replace guys that Angelos doesn't want to pay to extend. That's a roundabout way to beat the "Angelos is cheap" dead horse that everyone loves to continue to beat on. Of course Angelos isn't going to pay 8/80 or something similar for Holliday, but at some point Elias is going to have to replace that talent with...well, more cheap, cost controlled young talent. If that makes it sound like Elias is arrogant, fine. He should be, he's damn good at what he does. But arrogance doesn't mean that he thinks what he does is easy, or that I think what he does is easy. I can't help it if you confuse arrogance with people thinking their jobs are easy.

Of course. Angelos is always the villain. So you don't think that Elias believes in himself enough to be able to replace talent?

7/9 317 Missed Cubs/Reds and Dodgers 40 doubles

Good.

They should. They should also offer something to Gunnar, too. But they won't because they're stupid when it comes to this. We can bang the "Angelos is cheap" drum all day, and that's a fun drum to bang on. But I also get the feeling (and it's a feeling, it's not based on fact or quotes or anything tangible) that Elias is confident enough in his skills and abilities to be able to replace these guys when they hit free agency. That he can keep that continuous pipeline of talent to the majors constantly stocked so that when Gunnar or Holliday walk, there's three or four guys ready to go to replace them.

Nope.

Well if Holty was a wizard, Frenchy could be a sorcerer?

I'm just horsing around. I dunno if I'd do that deal or not, but I'd like to extend Holliday before he comes up like the Brewers are trying to do for Chourio.

Yeah, we're bored and we want to see what happens this offseason and any little bit of information that comes out about a signing, we're going to act like it's a done deal and analyze it to death.

I am pretty sure the general consensus about DC was "this signing sucks and makes no sense and WTF" when they purchased him from the Twins right at the end of Spring Training. I am also pretty sure you pointed to his mostly subpar K-rates throughout his career with slight outliers (10.2 in 2016, 9.9 in 2018 but 6.6 in 2022 in a small sample size) and hated the move at worst and were confused by it at best. And then lo and behold he went out and had a great season with, as you mentioned, a k rate over 10 and missed a lot of bats. But no one here thought that was possible when we picked him up. Wait, wait, wait...this one is my favorite: I like this one a lot, too: And then in April, a change of tune! I don't particularly like the "well, if they worked their magic with DC, they can work their magic with NU" argument as painting in broad strokes isn't always a great idea...but maybe they can If they see that the stuff is similar, they should be confident that they can get similar results. I mean, that's what you want in a front office like this that is starting to get a reputation for being able to turn guys around. I will say that I find it telling that Elias looks like he could jump on this guy this early in the offseason. It appears that they had this guy on their radar for awhile to be able to make a decision this early, I don't believe that Elias has been known to deal this early in the offseason. I'm not sure how they learned about him and scouted him but if the reports here are true then it looks like he was a target for Elias and it might be a shrewd move. So, wait and see. And wait and see how it falls in with whatever other moves are made in the offseason.

9/9 107

Yep, this is what I try to do, too.