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This is probably the worst lineup we can put together given the roster construction, except having Mullins in for Cowser. Seems like Mayo would certainly help this lineup.

I understand what you're saying because I agree the 4 hits were not really scolded, but he did have 4 hits Friday night.

As of now, the only person moving on from the OF after 2024 would be Santander if we dont resign him (which I hope we do). You are not accounting for Hays or Mullins, and you would still have Kjerstad and Cowser above Stowers or Norby. Not even mentioning O'Hearn who has still played some RF and we still have under contract if we want him next year. I dont see any reasonable road to Stowers or Norby getting at bats in 2025 just like they dont have one now. So I guess that leads the conversation to Norby vs Hays for a backup role next year right? On a contending team, Hays makes a lot more sense to me as your 4th OF/lF vs LHP than relegating Norby to that role. By all accounts he plays better defense in the OF than Norby, and is more versatile across all 3 OF positions in a pinch. You also kind of know what youre getting with Hays, where as Norby could come up and really struggle (like most prospects do) offensively, especially throwing him into a role with limited at bats. He is far more valuable as a trade piece than as a low at bat backup who isnt known for defense. Using Norby sparingly, and in a role he may not succeed in is not what best for his development of our contending team. He is still a former, or current borderline, top 100 prospect in baseball who is young enough to still have some decent trade value- more value than Hays in that regard. To me thats how I look at it: More value as a backup/defensive value role player outfielder in 2025 - Hays > Norby More value as a trade candidate to bring back pitching - Norby > Hays. As for Stowers, He's left handed which puts him in competition for time vs Mullins/Cowser/Kjerstad. As of this year, he is behind all of them for at bats, and I wouldnt see that changing next year. You could argue that YOU would rather have him playing over Mullins, and I wouldnt necessarily disagree, but the Orioles wouldnt, and you're not going to play all of them together all the time as three left handed hitters. We've seen Hyde's hesitancy to pay lefties vs LHP, and in most cases its been warranted. I think the best action for the Orioles moving into 2025 would be to trade Mullins or Hays this offseason. I would prefer to keep Hays since hes one of our only right handed options. That would open up a bench spot for Stowers maybe. I would also like to resign Tony as he provides solid defense, elite power, great in the locker room, and an ability to play him vs both RHP and LHP. If they trade Mullins and re-sign Tony that leaves you with: LF Kjerstad, CF Cowser, RF Santander, 4th OF Hays. If you wanted to argue that Norby or Stowers would be good as a 5th OF, ok, but I would argue they would have more value as a trade candidate than buried as 5th OF.

Extend that man.

They do not need to buy 1B. They have one of the best 1B in the division in Casas and he'll be back soon. Good news is we've built a solid cushion and we only need one more win over them to own the tie breaker too. They've made their run and taken advantage during our funk end of June and into July so hopefully we're able to get back to who we are after the break with some new additions to bolster the roster.

This is an overpay based on every trade made over the past 20 years, even for guys far more accomplished than Skubal. This is a better package than what the Red Sox traded for Chris Sale and Chris Sale was a 5 time all star and 5 time finisher in the top 5 of Cy young going into that trade. Skubal has a ton of potential, but he is not prime Chris Sale yet. Skubal has a ton of injury risk, has never pitched more than 150 innings in a single season, and has never finished in the top 10 of Cy young voting. Jackson Holliday is the #1 or #2 prospect in baseball based on publication. In no world is that a spare part.

Would you rather have Bassitt for 1.5 years or Berrios/Gausman for 2.5?

To everyone thinking we should, or may have to, give up multiple top 15 prospects for Skubal- please read this article: https://www.milb.com/news/toolshed-10-biggest-prospect-trades-of-the-decade-301375392 Basically outlines the biggest "prospect for stud" trades from 2008 to 2018. There is not any case of any team giving up more than one top 10 prospect in a trade, and for guys who, at the time, were more successful than Skubal. Giving up Multiple of Basallo/Holliday/Mayo would be unheard of- and a big overpay. The trades in the article align pretty well with a package of: Basallo Choice of Fabian/Beavers/Bradfield/Norby Choice of Povich/McDermott/Johnson Plus Lower level, high potential type of player or 2. Some notable trades for pitchers from the article: - Chris Sale for #1, #67, two unranked guys. Chris Sale was also a 5 time all star at the time and had finished in the top 5 in Cy Young Voting for 5 consecutive years. - Shelby Miller plus for #10, #61, and unranked guy - Jose Quintana for #5, #58 and two unranked guys - Cole Hamels plus for #51, #55, #59 plus - James Shields plus for #3, #30, 2 unranked guys I think that we would be offering more than enough with Basallo and a number of other good prospect options (Not Mayo/Holliday/Kjerstad) based on previous these trades. You could argue we would have to include Kjerstad or Cowser, but that would also limit what we offer in addition.

Just trying to selfishly create the roster spot for Mayo lol.

I would very much doubt that we give up 2 of our top 3. Basallo, Norby, Stowers/Bradfield, Urias. Top 10 prospect, borderline top 100, MLB ready OF or Speedy College OF, Established veteran

I disagree that Stowers or Norby would put up Santanders level of production. Definitely not initially. Stowers is batting .235 with a .317 OBP in AAA. Doesnt really scream confidence that he could replace Tony's production in the big leagues. You're right we will never know if he doesnt get a shot, but I just dont see him doing that. Cowser and Kjerstad are no locks to be great next year either, but I feel a lot better about them- theyve proven more in their time in the minors, were higher picks, and just generally regarded as higher level prospects. Just tough for me to send out three unknowns who are all lefty. O'Hearn hasnt been given a ton of opportunities against LHP but thats probably for a reason- he has looked bad against them and I'm sure theyve seen a lot more of that at spring training/practice than we get to see. I also think we'll have to trade some combination of Norby/Stowers/Fabian/Beavers/Bradfield to reinforce the pitching staff.

Hays and Mullins dont need to play every day, and they shouldnt. Neither does O'Hearn. Hays or Mullins would be the ones to move off for 2025. Keep Hays as the 4th OF. Kjerstad and Cowser should be pretty much every day in either LF/RF and CF respectively. I dont trust Stowers in a full time role, and definitely not when the other two guys are also Lefty. I guess To me it just comes down to thinking that an OF of Kjerstad, Cowser, Santander is better than one with Cowser, Kjerstad, Mullins/Hays/Stowers/Cook/Norby

I hear what you're saying but at some point you have to spend to either keep your guys around or bring new talent in. Maybe sometimes its an overpay. I dont know how else we would continue to have success as a team. Do you think Elias is going to hit on every draft pick like he did from 2019-2021? I dont see that as likely. So then just operate like the Marlins or Rays and when guys get good trade them for the next crop. I do want him to resign because I like him, but I also think hes the best option for us in RF next year.

Historical best years yes, and also his most recent years. I didnt cherry pick his best years, thats what hes done the most recent 2 years and this year. 30, 31, 32 is not 35, 36, 37. There is no reason a 30 year old should not be able to continue performing. Especially one who's game is predicated on hitting for power, not athleticism. Based on the fWAR values, how is he barely worth the contract? That is just you guessing that hes going to decline dramatically over the next three years. He is performing in his LATE 20's not just in his 20s as you say, and I would expect that to continue for the next 3 years. By your reasoning we should never get involved with any free agent? Most of them will be 29-30 when that time comes.

Sure, if you predict some big fall off in his production. You can also argue that its not reckless spending at all. Fangraphs values 1.0 WAR as $8 million. The past three years Tony has put up 2.3 fWAR ($18.4 million), 2.6 fWAR ($20.8 million), and on pace for 2.9 fWAR this year ($23.2 million). He's also on pace for 41 home runs this year which would put him at 102 during that 3 year span. Not sure where that ranks in baseball over those three years but I would bet its top 10. Not a perfect science, but based on that, he is significantly out performing his current deal and whatever the QO would be. We would be talking about a 3 year deal for his age 30,31,32 seasons. His game isnt built on a skillset that should diminish vastly during those years like speed or athleticism. Even if its a 4 year deal and we had him for his age 33 season, he would probably be just fine. As I mentioned earlier, when the 2025 alternative is an all left handed outfield, or Austin Hays on an expiring contract or an unproven Stowers/Norby/Cook, then Santander makes a lot of sense to me. Baseball aside- hes beloved in the clubhouse, and hes our longest tenured player. To me, for all of those reasons, signing him to an extension of 3 years 50-60 million is not reckless spending at all.

I get that. I'm hoping that the new ownership group will be a little more willing to spend than John Angelos. It doesnt mean you need to spend recklessly and doesn't solve everything, but hopefully takes us out of the "we can never pay anyone" category,

I was reading the Cowser thread, and with all the people clamoring to cut his playing time, and/or send him down- its just remarkable that people want to let Santander walk for nothing. We have 5 OF on the roster currently, and could have the same 5 next year. No more or less of a log jam. Of those 5, the only ones that are playing to their abilities by the orioles hangout judges are Santander and Kjerstad (SSS). Nobody here seems to believe in Kjerstad's defense, Mullins or Hays, or now Cowser so who exactly would be playing in the outfield next year? Santander has his flaws like everyone does, but he's a proven commodity, and has value on the field and in the clubhouse. There most likely will be roster movement from some the OF guys (Hays, Mullins, Stowers) either at the deadline or offseason so I am just having a hard time going into next year with either unproven guys (Norby/Billy Cook/Beavers etc) over Santander, or trusting that we're going to find another starting OF in free agency. I think if all 5 of our current OF are here next year (Cowser, Kjerstad, Mullins, Santander, Hays), then Hays and Mullins take on more of a bench role, and they would both be valuable in those roles. Now- if Mayo proves he is a capable RF, then I think that changes a lot, but we have yet to see if thats true and the Orioles havent even put it to practice as of now so I dont see that as a possibility. If Tony is not here, I think we will be missing his production by either watching one of the unproven guys struggle, or watching one of Hays/Mullins play every day and struggle. I'm not thinking of anything longer than 3 years, and I'll be clear, I would be ok with the QO and pick as well- I just dont know that we will fill his productivity as quickly or as easily as some think.

You could very well be correct. I do think Norby is our best real trade piece- meaning outside of the top 4 who arent going anywhere and still having value- and he is mostly blocked right now unless we do trade several veterans this offseason.

I was referring to this deadline and also the offseason, heading into the 2025 season.

Not true. We all know Elias works meticulously and the trade market has not begun league wide. One trade for Hunter Harvey so far and I dont think we wouldve given up Norby for him.

Yes thats all fair. I dont disagree. I dont think the Orioles have experimented with Mayo in RF yet so that will take some time, and theres no guarantee he will be as adept as Santander out there. If Mayo was RF ready then I think you just roll with HK/CC/CM

Hard to say. I am far more knowledgeable and invested in the Orioles than the rest of baseball, so I wouldnt know as much about him, but knowing he plays a solid OF and hits for power as a switch hitter (knowing all of our "guys" are left handed) I would probably have interest. I think he is worth the cost of a QO over a few more years, but I would be lying if I said being a homer doesnt play a role. I also am assuming that Stowers and Norby will not be here- so looking at Cowser, Kjerstad, Mullins, Hays as our other returning OF with Mullins and Hays both offseason trade candidates.

I agree- I think Norby and Stowers are more likely to be dealt. Only because they are regarded highly enough to bring back a quality return, and it seems the Orioles, rightfully so, woud like to hold onto their top 4

Stowers you're still running another left handed hitter out there. Even if you believe he will handle LHP just fine, it almost certainly wont be at the level that Santander will. And no offense to Billy Cook, but I'm not making roster decisions on established MLB guys based on him being ready or not. I would imagine Norby will not be an Oriole after this trade deadline, but if he is, then I still dont think the Orioles are going to be comfortable just handing him a starting outfield role. That would go to Hays before him.