Pickles
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Posts posted by Pickles
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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
Why would they want to do that?
The top two finishers in Rookie of the Year voting in each league are automatically awarded a full year of service, regardless of how much they actually accrued that year.
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46 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:
Holliday is projected for 126 games currently, which is about what he would get if called up right after the April deadline for an extra year of control. That amount is done manually and they’ll change the depth charts manually based on whatever happens. If he’s sent down to start the year they’ll probably set him to a much lower number until he is called back up.
Holliday is projected to be the best infielder behind Gunnar so the total projected team WAR will only decrease if he’s sent down. But the difference between him and Joey Ortiz or even Urias/Mateo is probably not super large.
He'll stay down long enough to ensure that he's not the rookie of the year. That's my prediction.
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3 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:
Pretty close to Steamer, overall higher on the pitching but lower on the position players. About 1 WAR lower on Adley and Gunnar than Steamer, but likes Mullins more. Very strong projection on Bradish and a bit light on Grayson. And ZIPS continues its love affair with Dean Kremer.
He also tweeted that the ZIPS top 100 prospect list is going to have Basallo very high. It projects him for an 87 wRC+ right now, which is extremely good for a 19 year old catcher.
That playing time doesn't look realist to me at all.
Holliday will not be the primary SS next year.
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14 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:
Because Kremer got lit up in the playoffs. I remember after a few times through the rotation, alot of fans wanted Bradish and Kremer both gone last year. Kremer is a bulldog. He’s not going anywhere.
Irvin is out of options next year. His final numbers were actually pretty decent. Zimmerman has an option, and seems to have swingman potential in AAA. Right now, I’d say that Wells is a SP.
The bullpen is what should have us worried for next year at this moment.
I think you're right. Everybody is focusing on the starting rotation, but getting the bullpen some help is likely to be just as if not more valuable.
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18 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:
I like Kremer but for some reason I was more optimistic about him coming into 2023 than I am coming into 2024 right know. That is to say that any fantasies I had of him developing the way that Kyle Bradish has developed, has come back down to earth. Now I look at him as a number 5, maybe number 4. His conclusions of the season was disappointing, but I guess that could be predicted with all that other stuff that was going on elsewhere that was out of his control.
If he's the fifth best pitcher in your rotation, then you're going to the playoffs. I just don't get people acting like that's a bad thing. People do not appreciate the dearth of pitching depth across the league and the value of a dude who posts up every fifth day and gives you 17 outs.
If you're really putting numbers on these guys, fairly, then Kremer's like a #3. There aren't 90 starting pitchers better than him.
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20 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:
I’m highly confident we’ll get a better headliner than Ortiz. And even if we can’t get a better prospect than one of Cowser or Kjerstad, I think we can get a better overall package if the second piece fron the Orioles is a guy in the 10 to 14 range.
Then if I'm Mike Elias I say, "Good luck."
You're not going to get a global top 25/30 prospect that is major league ready like Cowser or Kjerstad. If you get someone ranked higher or in that range, they'll be further from the majors. Ortiz is probably a top 50 prospect who is also major league ready. You're not getting a second piece like that. Not gonna happen.
You haven't acknowledged one of the valuable aspects of the Orioles' prospects is that most of them are pretty much major league ready. These aren't 19 year old crapshoots. That part of our package is going to be unparalleled.
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21 hours ago, Frobby said:
First of all, I messed up my math a little in the post you replied to, because I forgot to multiply by three for the three games. But let’s say tickets cost $200 on average. That’s 45,000 * 200 * 3 * 12.5% = $3.375 mm.
It’s interesting to hear that the general public got charged $200 for nosebleed seats. Season ticket holders did not pay those kind of prices. Not only was I able to get my regular seats for $237.50, but we were offered additional seats in the lower deck, behind 3B but further back than my other seats, and I think the price was $155. Also, I paid $45 for parking, in the Lee lot which is closer to the stadium than most of the lots. Glad to know that being a season ticket holder actually gets you advantageous pricing during the playoffs.
I’d imagine far more seats were sold at the prices offered to season ticket holders than were sold at the “general public” prices.
The bolded is of course what needs to be answered to get a per capita average. It sounds like you premise right though according to your experience. I was only trying to go to Game One, and I know that is was very difficult to buy them online at the opening. I had a friend who was unable to do it. I do wonder if because it was Game One that changed the pricing.
Anyway, I think it's good the O's reward their season ticket holders. Should only grow the season ticket base. They should advertise these kinds of things when promoting. 2 years ago that might have been funny, but there should be a lot of playoff baseball in the O's future.
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16 hours ago, InsideCoroner said:
I bought 6 tickets for Game 5 of the ALDS at public prices as soon as they went on sale, and they were $120 per ticket for upper deck seating (in two different sections). It wasn’t $200 a ticket.
I might have paid more because I went Game One?
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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:
I’m highly confident we’ll get a better headliner than Ortiz. And even if we can’t get a better prospect than one of Cowser or Kjerstad, I think we can get a better overall package if the second piece fron the Orioles is a guy in the 10 to 14 range.
Then I'd say good luck and let's revisit this in the fullness of time.
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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:
I’m an ass because you made an idiotic comment and I called you out for it?
No one asked your opinion. You chose to chime in with a stupid comment that is wrong and dumb on every level. You were just trolling and trying to start something for no reason. Acting as if you weren’t is just you being a liar.
Idiotic statement that you immediately ran away from? A rebuilding team doesn't give a crap about DeJong. Only you do. Another Casey Kotchman. An embarrassing reminder that you wouldn't know talent if it was making cuckold videos on the internet with your wife. Which it probably is.
I can give my opinion whenever I want to, boy. That's what this is. A message board.
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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:
The tickets don’t cost $300 a pop. I think I paid $237.50 and those were good seats 13 rows behind 1B. Most tickets cost significantly less.
i looked it up. The players take 60% of the first 3 games and the commissioner’s office takes 15%. Then the two teams divide the remaining 25%. So even by your numbers the Orioles only would get 12.5% of 13.5 mm = $1.675 mm. And it’s probably significantly less.
Well, lucky you. I paid 200 to sit in the nosebleeds.
I bought from the team when they opened them up to the general public online. I was lucky to get them.
So we're talking more like close to 5 million for the tickets for the series, not to mention concessions, which at 25 a head comes to 2.5 million for the two home games, and parking at 60 (yes) bucks a car times 20,000? comes to almost another 2.5 million for the two home games.
I think it's very safe to say the O's made more than 1-2 million.
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3 hours ago, MijiT88 said:
Kremer had 172 last year with one less start than Gibby, I wouldnt put it past Kremer to hit 190 this year. and I bet his ERA will be better than 4.72 as well
Half the board is trying to trade of Kremer too. LOL.
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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Well first of all, top 100 guys can be very overrated. Top 10 prospects are also not created equal. The Orioles have 15-20 guys would make a lot of teams top 10 and probably 7-12 players that would make a lot of top 5s. This is why you guys(or any team) dealing with us is your best case scenario.
Secondly, you talk about us acting like our prospects are sure things (which literally zero people are doing) yet you want us to believe that we should ignore everything prior to 2022 because of a pitch. You act like it’s a sure thing that Cease won’t be the bust even though there are signs he could get worse. Cease is certainly more of a sure thing than any player likely to be traded for him but he’s also gone in 2 years and will carry larger salaries, where as you stand to get 2-4 players with all of their service time and cheap salaries ahead. In terms of surplus value, you guys figure to have way more upside with that long term than the Os.
Of course, we can’t keep and play everyone and this team needs to win now, so you give that up for what you hope is a big upgrade.
Im going to go back to the list of teams I said are likely to be in the hunt for him…what are they going to give up that is what you are looking for? To me, this is what the conversation really is about. What are these teams willing to give up?
What do you want from St Louis? Or Cinci? Or the Dodgers? Or Boston? Or the Yankees? Or Houston?
I know you downvoted me you little cry baby, but my point was extremely valid (A rebuilding team is not going to let De Jong block anybody), but I very much agree with you here.
Cowser and Kjerstad are both top 25 prospects, who are both major league ready, who are you getting better than one of those? Who is going to headline with something better than that?
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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I wonder how much the Orioles received. Not the players, the team. It’s a share of the gate receipts from the 3 games the team played in. Not that big a share, after the players and MLB get their cut. The way it works, the players only get a share of the receipts from the minimum number of games that can be played in that series. So, a sweep doesn’t hurt the players’ share, but it hurts the team’s share a lot. If I had to guess, the O’s probably only made $1-2 mm from the 3-game ALDS.
You think it's that little? You've thought about it more than me but seems really low.
45,000 tickets at 300 a pop is like 13.5 million dollars.
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4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
Again, I don’t mean to to be disrespectful here, but the idea he’s worth “someone(s) inside the top 100 or just outside of it” is wild to me. Prospects bust at an absurdly high rate. You talk about trading 12 to 18 years of control like these guys are sure things. The reality is the average 50 FV prospect (guys typically in the 50 to 125 range) will provide to 2 to 3 wins in value over the period of time a team has control of them. Cease is likely going to provide 3 to 4 wins next year alone and that doesn’t require he return to 2022 form. As such, even before you factor the possibility he returns to 2022 form, the premium for SP right now, and the high probability of a compensation pick coming at the end of his control, the intrinsic valuation would suggest two 50 FV prospects as being fair value at the low end of the range. And beyond that, the most recent comps suggest a package based on one 55+ / 55 FV prospect and one 50 FV type guy. I don’t really care what Jim Bowden wrote in some article. I have seen go both ways in vastly overrating or underrating potential trade returns.
CHI can have one of Kjerstad, Cowser, or Ortiz and then another guy in 10-14 range. Prospects do bust, but you get your choice of some pretty primo ones so don't be stupid and make a good choice.
Or go and make a deal with somebody else, but I bet you can't get a better prospect than one of those three from anybody else.
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34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
White Sox signed DeJong to a ML contract today. I guess that means Lopez and DeJong is their starting MI?
That certainly goes with the idea of wanting to improve the defense.
I’m guessing they wouldn’t let that stop them from trading for Ortiz but maybe it’s not as an immediate need and they would want something different? Can’t imagine that would be the case though.
Nobody is passing up on Ortiz because of De Jong, except for you.
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8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
I really don’t see the purpose of Kramer coming back to us in a possible Cease trade. First, he seems like important depth for you guys. Second, I’m not sure how he really moves the needle for us. We need to be aiming than back of the rotation starter given where we’re at.
Kremer is Sports Guy being too cute by half.
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14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
There are many other teams that will have interest in Cease and I fully expect a much better headliner than Ortiz. But if that’s the best we can do right now, then we’ll be holding until the deadline and let Cease recoup his value.
Where do you rank Ortiz on the global prospect scale?
I think in the group mind here, he's a solid 50-75. Kjerstad and Cowers more like 30-50.
Who is the global top 25 prospect the White Sox are seeking for two years of Dylan Cease?
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21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
June is after May. In June he had 5 starts, 31 IP, 22 hits, 7 walks, 32 strikeouts, and a 2.90 ERA. 2 ineffective starts in July and then out until the end of September. If healthy, the guy knows how to pitch.
Knowing how to pitch is nice.
Being able to pitch is better.
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20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
If it was Ortiz instead of Kjerstad I’d go for Cease but as the trade was described I agree with you.
To be clear, I wouldn't make either trade but my preference is completely about wanting nothing to do with Bieber. I'd much rather give up 1 year of Santander than 6 of Kjerstad.
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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:
Would you prefer trading Kjerstad, Povich, and Fabian for Cease than trading Santander for Bieber?
The Cease trade. And that's getting more in my price range.
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And tbh, I don't hate to deal Santander. I'd rather deal off the top than from the prospects; I just don't like Bieber.
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Just now, RZNJ said:
For who?
I don't know. That's Elias' job.
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Just now, RZNJ said:
You want someone who is a safer bet and better? Who and what are you willing to pay?
A prospect 4-6, and 10-14, and 20-30.
What are the odds that Holliday makes the Opening Day roster?
in Orioles Talk
Posted
That's the whole point. They're not going to pull that again.