Pickles
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Posts posted by Pickles
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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:
Fair question. Those 11 innings came at the end of the season. I’m assuming he’s healthy heading into 2024. I’m sure the O’s would perform due diligence. No guarantees in baseball.
Sure, there are no guarantees in anything.
But aren't there maybe better guarantees than a guy who's K rate has halved in 4 years, and who pitched 11 innings in the second half last year?
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Just now, Sports Guy said:
So to be clear, if we wake up tomorrow and this deal happens, you will feel Elias made a huge mistake and is wrong for making the trade?
Huge mistake? No.
Wrong? No.
Not what I would have done? Yes.
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Just now, Sports Guy said:
Well, you are completely wrong about his profile not being good 2019-2022. Literally nothing backs that up unless you want to ignore stats and performance.
I’m saying it’s an incredibly foolish statement to say it’s an easy choice to say Santander will out produce him. There is no validity behind that statement.
That’s another way of saying it’s not even close…and sorry, but that’s really dumb.
Santander’s best season by fWAR is the equivalent Bieber’s worst full season. So, unless Bieber is going to get hurt next year (and btw, even though it’s been better the last few years, AS doesn’t have a great history of health either), it’s very unlikely that Santander posts a higher WAR.
Snell was extremely mediocre from 2019-2022. Either you don't understand what I'm saying, or you don't know Snell's career.
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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:
Last year was the first time that Santander had more WAR than Bieber and Bieber missed 1/3 of the season. So, sure, if Bieber can’t pitch and Santander plays a full season odds are in Santander’s favor.
He pitched 11 innings in the second half last year. It's a fair question.
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1 minute ago, RZNJ said:
That’s a risk. He’s 28 and his fastball velocity was the same in 23 as 22. Almost any pitcher available comes with some kind of risk.
You can't just dismiss risk with a generic "everything has risk" statement. I could get hit by a bus tomorrow, I shouldn't start smoking cigarettes tonight.
This goes for @Sports Guy as well.
His K rate has almost HALVED since 2020. HIs performance is basically going in one direction. He missed time with an elbow injury this year in July. He made two starts after that. That's a lot of red flags. They can't be ignored and just waved away as "everything has risk" just for the sake of doing something.
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1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:
Like when you said Santander was more valuable than Snell?
I said I didn't like Snell's risk profile. I was right about it 2019-2022, and wrong about it 2018 and 2023.
Bieber isn't Snell.
So you're on the record then for Bieber being more valuable next year than Santander. Duly noted.
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2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Bieber 1.8 WAR in 21 starts. Santander 3.0 in 153 games. Should be pretty close IF Bieber can make 30 starts like he did in 2022.
He doesn't keep trending downward?
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12 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I don’t actually know what’s realistic. I have no idea what constraints ownership has put on Elias, or what constraints Elias has put on himself, or how Elias feels about various prospects and trade targets.
I think a good offseason would be a 2/3 starter, a reliever with some closing experience, and a couple of buy low players who might have a shot to contribute the way O’Hearn did.
I don't even need the closing experience. I just want a late inning bullpen arm and that almost assuredly comes through trade.
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3 minutes ago, Jagwar said:
Well now that is a different proposition yes? Does trading Santander for a pitching upgrade actually improve aggregate value? Then I'm all for it.
Who is likely to produce more WAR next year?
Santander or Bieber?
Santander seems the easy choice.
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What are the odds that Kremer is straight up better than Bieber next year?
Not insignificant.
Bieber isn't really a worthwhile target.
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5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Yea but I would guess they would prefer cheaper, longer term talent. They would rather have a Cowser than a Santander, at least that’s my assumption.
That franchise doesn’t spend either.
Is any franchise in their right mind going to give up a Coswer for Bieber?
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47 minutes ago, forphase1 said:
I never claimed it was a 'line in the sand' for anyone, now did I? But there are threads, such as the tendering players thread, where someone complains about the likelihood of an infield with Urias and Mateo to start the season now, and the immediate response is something like 'yeah, it would suck to win 100 games again'.
So?
Did you not want to tender one of them? They both clearly should have been tendered imo.
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52 minutes ago, forphase1 said:
Sure sounds like some want to stand pat. Every time someone talks about upgrading Mateo or Urias or whatever and mentions how poorly they played at times, inevitably someone jumps in with 'but we won 100 games with them!' We all know we won a ton of games and had a great year. And I certainly get not wanting to make huge changes. But I personally think we can certainly improve the team by replacing some underperforming spots on the roster with more talented rookies.
Show me somebody who has turned either Mateo or Urias into a line in the sand.
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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
You have said we are a playoff team right now. That we don’t have to add to do it.
I've said I believe we are a playoff team right now.
We should still improve our roster.
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9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I mean, it’s been on here since the season ended. WC is certainly saying things like that. Pickles has said it. There have been plenty of arguments where we could essentially bring in another Gibson like guy and sign a reliever and be ready to go.
Like I said, the names may be different but the talent level people have said to bring in isn’t much different.
When have I said what?
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3 hours ago, dystopia said:
If you think we have a 100 win team then we should should try and improve to a 110 win team. Winning 100 games doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try and improve.
That's fair and we all agree. Literally, nobody is saying, "Stand pat." Now we have different takes on what that means, and we have different risk profiles, different targets, different desires, etc. and when the conversation is within those parameters it is constructive and interesting.
But to come in here in 2023, talking about f-ing "percolating", which is from like 15 years ago, as some critique of the current regime, draws my ire. LOL.
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1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
You were the one that was crying in every single game thread.
You must have me confused with somebody else. I almost never post in game threads. Because of the endless crying.
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40 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
Amazing how 100 win seasons are guaranteed from 2023 forward.
Amazing how 100 win season couldn't keep you from crying for more than three seconds. But cry babies gonna cry.
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7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
Elias will do the old Orioles standard of percolating until all the good players are signed or traded.
Guess we'll just have to be satisfied with another 100 win season.
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23 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Ok, but what’s the difference between discussing trade proposals for Dylan Cease and coming up with some proposal for Andrew Painter or Kyle Harrison? None of it means anything until two teams actually make a real trade.
No, I'm not criticizing us discussing it. It's fun. I like it.
I'm saying I don't legitimately have the expertise to criticize what Elias does or doesn't do other than in broad strokes.
I'm not going to say black and white what he should or shouldn't do.
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21 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I feel like I’m talking to the cross between wildcard and OldFan.
If this team had been run by you and your principles, they'd still be winning 55 games a year.
And we can check the transcript on that if you'd like.
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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Right and having better players for those 162 games is a good thing.
Right, but losing Kremer and Gibson, even if we get Cease, doesn't really give us better players.
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6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
It doesn’t take any more insight than we see in this thread.
It's like listening to the dude at the local pub rip out a song on the guitar. It can be nice, and we all enjoy it, but it isn't a professional performance.
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6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Of course. We want to trade the players we don’t see being a part of the team in 1-3 years. Everyone is ok including Norby. Most are ok including Ortiz and Cowser although maybe not in the same deal. Most seem more ok including Povich instead of McDermott. Fabian was being talked up until he struck out 40% of the time in AA.
Norby, Fabian, Povich. I’m not sure what that gets us but no one would cry too loud about losing those 3.
We're probably going to have to make prospect for prospect trades. That's going to take insight and knowledge that is well beyond anybody on this board.
Santander for Bieber
in Orioles Talk
Posted
I won't say clearly. I probably shouldn't have said "pretty easily" or whatever. If I was a betting man though, I'd take Santander next year, but it's no landslide.
I think looking at the information I have, I don't like Bieber's trends.
Now, I know they have information and expertise that I don't have access to, so if they do it I'll assume they have good reason to and I'll be interested to see how it plays out (and of course rooting for it to work out magnificently).