Pickles

Yeah, winning 95 games next year should definitiely be enough to at least contend for the AL title. Furthermore, the O's won't be standing pat. That's an impossibility for any team. No man steps into the same river, etc. They should be getting significantly more production from Westburg and Rodriguez next year. To name just a few players who should be on the upswing of their performances.

Yeah like that if they wanted to. They probably have better options this year but doesn't change the fact that no major changes are required for this team to compete for the AL East.

Define anywhere close. They could trot the same lineup out there next year and 95 wins should be the expectation.

Good post. Always good to get the outside perspective. Seems as if RZNJ's initial ask was pretty accurate from the White Sox' perspective. I would not make that trade from the Orioles perspective. As a counter: Would you accept Westburg as a headliner? I'm assuming no.

It's not surprising to me Grayson is projected above Bradish. It is a little surprising to me that Bradish isn't in the top 25. However, this is the weakness of these computer models. They can't recognize real developmental breakthroughs as quickly as the human eye can.

Looks like even hitting as he did last year, Adley is one of the most valuable players in the game.

That's fair to say but it's also kind of a No sh, Sherlock thing. If Cowser had performed while he was up, he never would have gone down. This wasn't an Ortiz situation. He was given fairly regular playing time for a while. When they demoted him, were Elias and Co. being "reactionary?" Or pointing to a small sample size?

The #2 pick in the draft status will get Kjerstad looks where others don't get them. I mean, how many people did Matt Bush get to kill before teams walked away from him? Just the way it is. Honestly, I hope that Kjerstad's career turns out that he is seen as a better version of Anthony Santander.

I get it. And I'm just saying what I think it would worth.

Well, you say "no" and I say "Hell no." Fair enough.

Or the next Steve Finley, Pete Harnisch, and Curt Schilling.

Just that he is a premier prospect, and not just run of the mill guy. Talent matters. In 3 years if Ortiz and Martin are both struggling, Martin is going to continue to receive some opportunities that Ortiz wouldn't. Just the way it is.

Well, I've been told over and over again that we must clear out a regular spot for Kjerstad asap, and either do the same for Ortiz or trade him into such a situation, likewise asap. So it seems that's the general consensus here. They could get one of Kjerstad/Cowser/Ortiz and then maybe another minor piece. I'm still not sure I'd do it, but that is at least a reasonable framework imo.

I'm not giving up 12+ years of what should be two full time players, including one who was the #2 pick in the draft, for two years of Dylan Cease. It would be a stupid overpay for the Orioles. We can differ on the semantics.

Yeah. I'm not saying your analysis is wrong; I'm just saying I wouldn't make that trade in a million years.

That seems like an insane overpay to me.

If it was easy, everyone would do it.

They can get 500 PAs a year if Ortiz isn't here. And even more until Holliday comes up. That's pretty close to every day.

Well it's simple logic. If they are every day players then they are upgrades over Urias, and thus rostering them over Urias would undoubtedly improve the team. What is wrong?

Are you telling me Ortiz and Westburg aren't improvements over Urias? Then why do we have to open up 600 PAs for them both?

It's also not measuring WAR. It's measuring WAA.

If I was absolutely just pressed to trade someone, and I don't think they are, I'd trade Urias before I traded Ortiz or Westburg.

What's being measured is performance from first base. It's not measuring individual's performance.

If they all pan out and stay healthy, then yes at some point in the next few years you probably have to trade one. That day is not today, and I doubt it is this offseason. Adam Frazier got 455 PAs last year. They can go to some combination of Ortiz and Westburg. There is no logjam whatsoever until Holliday comes up. People have different opinions about when that will be, and nobody really knows.

I think you're confused about what is being measured.