LookinUp

Another good point. Two responses. #1. They're the best. We're better than we've been in years at this acquire/develop talent thing, but not close to the Rays yet. #2. We shouldn't be forced to do this as often as the Rays. We should have more financial resources than them, and be able to support a larger payroll.

Yep. Definitely an argument to trade Santander sooner than later.

And how many other years have the Yankees contended on the backs of home grown talent? Any decent/good franchise can have a wave of talent. Having a steady river is what it takes to compete consistently with the Yanks.

That's great news. I expect us to graduate a few guys this year and of course to add a few. I also don't see a ton of value in Nevin, Bannon or McKenna. Add in a couple of bad years and in theory we could need to "fill" the top 30 with 5-10 more guys next year. It seems like there could be room. Either way, I certainly hope we're at a point where a good year from Cumberland or Mattson don't qualify them for the top 30.

Now who's creating the straw man? I believe that Santander can be a valuable contributor on a competitive Orioles team during his team control. That doesn't mean that I think he "is the future." You know he played a lot of games in 2019, minors and majors.

You can buy yourself out of any problem with personnel. If I had any confidence that the O's would do that if they created a hole, I'd feel better.

I think this is a good argument. I'm not sold that Stowers/Haskin/Diaz/Stewart/Kjerstad are the future. But depth matters and improves the odds for sure.

So we're back to risk tolerances. What you think is smart is not what I think is smart. Funny thing about all of this is if Elias trades Santander tomorrow, I'll trust that he knows better. However, with the information I have now, I'll stick with the old bird in the hand is worth two in the bush mantra.

Perhaps, but I'd be willing to take less if he's purely redundant.

Tony isn't a huge fan of Diaz. I think he's part of the reason you and I disagree. I have hope for him, but pretty low confidence.

I picked a random year. 2012. Maybe it's unfair because most of those players really didn't turn out very valuable. Their progress certainly wasn't linear (see Gausmann). I'm not banking on a kid with a limited track record before I at least see him on my own fields for a few minutes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Major_League_Baseball_draft

I'm not referring to the Orioles, but emotion isn't probably the right word anyway. You and SG are operating under different assumptions and risk tolerances than I would. That's fine, but we just disagree. Let me put this in a different light. If the O's trade Santander and don't get a strong return, I'll jump to the conclusion that you usually jump to. It's all about money. He has value to us. I concede that reasonable people think he can have more value to us through a trade. I don't think it's smart to trade him unless we maximize that value in a trade unless/until we have confidence in future replacements.

Nope, but the discussion is about whether you can replace a top half of the roster player easily. This kid would have value to the Orioles in 2022 and 2023 when the team in theory could be competitive. I'm not trading that away without having a good sense that I 1) have a replacement in house or 2) a better player is close to the majors.

The best gamblers aren't about emotion. They're smarter than their competitors and maximize their odds.

Your argument is about why he's not elite, but by the list above there are about 4 players/team with his range of OPS. So he's roughly a top 4 hitter on most teams who also plays good defense. I get that he's not elite, but he has value.

There's risk in any strategy. Let Santander play more and you risk he gets hurt or doesn't produce. Trade him now and you take for granted that your 1-2 pick is the stud you hope even though you saw him in relatively small sample sizes and he hasn't played in a year. I prefer to wait and see. Confirm our guys are what we hope they are, to some extent. I do concede that Elias probably has a better idea of that already than I do, but I also know for a fact that top picks don't pan out in this sport quite frequently, so I don't want to take him for granted.

The most important things in sports are 1) not to have to go against a true dynasty and 2) how good you are. Outside of #1, which is pretty rare, the most important thing is still internal, in my opinion. Toronto being better means our games against them are harder, but it also means the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox all have harder games too. So there's that.

Undersold on this board is the fact that Toronto is a VERY large market with VERY rich ownership. At least that's my recollection. We're really going against 3 financial juggernauts and the most efficient franchise in the sport. Tough division.

And I don't get the idea that he's so easy to replace. I've seen this team run out enough stiffs in the outfield since Markakis left to not take that position for granted.

The international guys are most interesting to me. In theory one or two could come stateside and be top 10 prospects quickly if the hype matches the eye test. The few guys I wouldn't be surprised to also see added are: Cumberland - could be our future backup catcher, which has value. Could see him in the 20-30 range at the end of of 2021 with a good year. Mattson - another arm from the Bundy deal. We haven't seen him much yet. Wouldn't surprise me if he turns out to have Zimmermann like production. The headliner in a Cobb/Santander/Mancini trade.

This is the crux of the argument I've been having with SG. I don't believe it's easy to find a guy as valuable as Santander, and I think the argument that you can replace his production through the rest of the roster is a fallacy. If you can do that, why not keep him and still improve the rest of the roster? I actually think we kind of agree about the type of player that Santander is. Somewhat less than Jammer's opinion of him, but a good guy who can be valuable even if he's not your Machado type of value. Eventually maybe not affordable at that level of production for a penny-pinching team. The relevant question then about trading him is about whether you can replace him, because I don't want to trade him and create a hole in our lineup when we're on the cusp of being competitive (which I believe starts late this year and next). So all of that argues not to trade him now unless you get that Bleday-like deal. REAL value back. If not, I'm not moving him unless/until I have confidence in our other internal options. Finally, I don't buy the cost argument for two reasons. First, he will be getting expensive when the rest of the roster is the cheapest it'll ever be. We should be able to cover arb prices. If they go really high, that means he's producing. Second, if we don't have that replacement internally that means to me that we'd have to pay free agent prices in hopes of replacing him. That's the most expensive route of player acquisition. So we find a team that wants to win now and is willing to overpay for a cheap alternative, perhaps like the Marlins, or we wait until we know more in July and reassess. That's my take.

I'm on the fence about Santander mostly because I think he's good, but not great. If Elias thinks like SG that Santander is relatively easily replaced, then I would also agree that he should be traded while his value is at its max. Whether that's now or at the All Star break is worth discussion. I personally don't think he'd be that easily replaced by our internal options unless/until we see real production from some of them. Kjerstad is the most likely, and he may prove within about 6-10 weeks that Santander is expendable. Diaz too, though I have less confidence in him. But that's my issue. If we don't have a replacement, I'd be willing to pay him during arb years because the team will be cheap and should be competitive for some of that time.

If Elias is making him available, either he doesn't believe in the profile that you're projecting or he thinks others really do believe in it and he can get good value. If Bleday is a 40 speed guy, he better hit better than he did in 2019. Still, he was a VERY highly regarded prospect for a time. I'd really be shocked if Santander nets that type of value unless that star has fizzled.

I actually picked Ortiz just based on what I recall as very positive reports from a year or more ago. Zach Watson also just got engaged. Apparently I follow him on twitter. Another guy with decent pedigree that needs to play. If you told me he's a top 15 -20 prospect because he has plus CF defense and had an .830 OPS this year I wouldn't be totally shocked. It's that OPS thing that's in question, I think.

The guy I'm rooting for is Toby Welk. I know nothing about him except he had good "data" coming out of a small school and then produced when he was old for his league. Then the already old prospect had to miss the Covid year. Would be awesome if he somehow turns out to be our surprise 3b of the future though. Crazier things have happened.