LookinUp

Meh. I wasn't impressed by Wieters' first AB. He was always that guy. Powerful. Long slow swing though.

This brings up an issue I have had with terminology for a while. The word ceiling literally means the best possible outcome. For Hall, that's #1 starter and hall of famer. But when we're talking about prospect status, ceiling has this fuzzy basis in reality that really means the best possible outcome that the evaluator thinks is possible. For all, the evaluators see great stuff but without command/control. That means his prospect ceiling is something like 95% of his physical ceiling. Hall's stuff is electric. He's a great athlete. His mentality seems to be like a bulldog. He's everything, but doesn't have that control. He'll be a very valuable Oriole at some point whether it's in a Britton-like role or a Burnett-like role.

Don't worry. We'll hear he's the next Willie Mays by the time he's signed. He'll grow up a lot in the next 6 months.

I don't know man. History aside, I feel like if Tampa got their hands on the same guys, the careers would have been much more successful.

If this is how MLB did things, there would be many fewer prospects in the minors. See Drungo's rants about this. We all know the way things are set up. To expect the O's to manage personnel contrary to the incentives built into the system is an exercise in futility. These guys will be brought up 1) when there are no more excuses not to or 2) when they're needed. The system does not incent a team to bring guys up to get us from 72-75 wins. That is not considered a need.

I enjoyed that. Gives hope that he’ll improve his control in a pretty meaningful way. If so, his prospect status moves up somewhat significantly.

Really interesting that the guy who wrote “Smart Baseball” gives a qualitative reason for a numerical ranking when others are quantifying the FVs of actual people and ranking accordingly.

I think we have Felix and Harvey, and to a lesser extent Leblanc, for two* reasons: 1. To cover innings, especially early in the season, while the next group of guys proves themselves in AA/AAA and/or gains a year of service time, and 2. To trade. #2 fits into the rule of large sample sizes. Eventually guys like this produce over relevant time periods and you can get a real good trade for them. That doesn't mean it'll happen with these two, but when you're rebuilding this is the type of two-sided move you make in hopes of buying some time for your young guys and gaining some additional prospects. * you could also argue Felix is here as a leader, but I don't think that's a principal reason to have him here.

They'll learn about Lowther this year, but if anyone thinks they're going to see an effective Hernandez/Harvey and still jettison them, you got another thing coming. If those guys are serviceable, they'll be on the team until they can be traded or just stink. That's just reality. They're not going to just cut potential trade assets because they like a young guy in a lost season.

I *think* he's a NY guy. Has a disappointed history with Harvey is my guess.

Hall certainly has great upside. His profile has taken a knock for a couple of years because of control concerns. Hopefully he can harness that stuff because he has probably the best swing and miss stuff in the system. The other guys are being over rated by you though, I think. I think Kremer/Akin might have #3 stretches, but really don't profile as #3 types. Kremer has a shot. Akin does not, IMO. If there's another guy with great upside that we know about, it's probably Baumann. His arm talent is next level. Several of the other guys, though I like them, kind of have to hit the Dallas Keuchel-like inside straight. Not impossible, but not highly probable.

Yeah. The whole thing about Gausman coming out was that he had a great change up to go with the FB, but didn't have a average or better 3rd pitch (slider). I was always disappointed in his change/splitter junk. I think it went backwards with the O's, but it was his calling card for a little while. The idea that he just came up with it is weak sauce.

This is true, but both the union and the owners have incentive not to promote the youngest players, whether that coincides with playing the best guys at any age or not.

The idea that he needs to prove something in AA is funny to me. Dude is coming to spring training, right? The O's will know in a week if he's as good as the guys we have now. They might not know every detail he needs to improve upon, but with the way they're using video and data, I'd bet they already know what he needs to work on. There might be reasons to send him down beyond service time, but they've likely already identified those reasons.

I'm going to assume that AR is pretty obviously the best catcher in spring training. If not, I'll assume it's close. He's not going to stink all of the sudden. So assuming that, I want the extra year of service time. That means I'd bring him up pretty much when eligible for the extra year. If I delayed beyond that, it would be because 1) the AA season starts later and I want him to get his feet wet (weak reason, IMO) or 2) I'm trying to maximize Severino's value for a trade (also pretty weak). In a perfect world, Severino starts out like a house of fire. We call up AR in May/June and Severino gets more bench time and eventually traded.

I don't think this team has an obvious light's out closer candidate, like say, George Sherrill. Hopefully one of these no names turns himself into a Flat Breezy type of fella.

So do you trash the strategy altogether? I'd say no. I think it's a player by player consideration. I want to see some more of Mountcastle, but I think the bat has the ability to play for a long time. Still, I'm not saying definitely lock him up. I'm saying the conversation should be had by smart people re: if and/or when.

I have a bunch of thoughts on this thread, so I'll make each briefly. 1. The O's history of doing this is moot at this point, IMO. They're clearly doing many things differently already as evidenced by the Cobb trade (where we ate significant money) and the International market. I think this type of thinking is definitely in the cards. 2. SG and Wildcard both make really good pro/con arguments here. Definitely a worthy discussion. 3. The fact he's a catcher is very important. Similarly, we could theoretically have the same discussion about Grayson Rodriguez at some point here. My guess is Elias won't get too far out in front of guys at positions with high attrition (but that is just a guess). Age is also clearly an important factor in all of this. 4. Some other guys I would think are worthy of this discussion now or in the future are Mountcastle, maybe Gunnar Henderson or some other position guys. 5. I included Mountcastle in #4 on purpose because I don't think you need to be elite to be locked up. This isn't just a #2 overall prospect type of discussion, IMO. It's a roster/budget management strategy that I also think the O's should employ.

I kind of agree, but it is actually the definition of orange colored glasses. Beyond Grayson, who else profiles as ?very, VERY good?"

As a reminder, this guy was an "overslot" 11th round pick in just 2019. I think it speaks very well to our system that he's kind of fallen off the radar. He was picked with some thought that he actually has some playable upside. I'm not predicting great success or anything, but if he's in the top 30 this time next year I wouldn't be surprised. He has some shot to be a decent major leaguer at some point. Not necessarily a pure org guy (IMO) even if he ends up that guy eventually.

To the extent the Rays are driving the future of baseball, who ends a game will be as much about data as it is about role. We may have a guy who gets 40-50% of our saves, but not a guy who gets 80-90% of them. Last regular season the Rays had 23 saves. Anderson led them with 6.

The O's start out hot behind a fresh and resurgent King Felix and Harvey. Hays, Santander, Mancini and Mountcastle carry the team offensively. The defense is stellar. They're within 5 games on July 28. They trade for a soon to be FA 2B. With they hype, they promote the next cavalry. Grayson, DL Hall, Baumann and Adley all get promoted a la Machado. Covid has calmed down. The Yard is packed. The ultimate surprise is they promote young Gunnar Henderson, who has flown up prospect lists in the first half of the season. To put them over the top, they need the ultimate DH. Enter Renato Nunez! He goes on a home run streak like no other. Their odds go up to 1%.

Gunnar was very young and playing with Adley, Grayson, Kremer, etc. Impressed. Word is getting out. Hopefully he produces.

It would be amazing to catch this lightning in a bottle. It’s exactly the type of low risk move we should be making.