LookinUp

My over reaction is to this quote: I love that he refers to when Gunnar gets to the big leagues, not if.

Kind of serious feedback... If the Padres really are also about to trade for Darvish, they might actually want some prospects in their system. Might be able to pull off a trade for a couple of mediocre guys with a little upside.

That's fair.

I guess what I'm saying is that teams have their own top 10 and they likely don't get close to mirroring BA's, specifically because they know much more about the younger guys in the system. A guy like Mayo *might* be a decent example for the O's. Big tools. Missed his senior season in high school. This kid could be the next Cal Ripken, or the next Ryan Minor, for all we know. The team has, or will soon have, a good idea though. He likely won't be on a top 100 list for 2 years if things go well, but within a few workouts he could be internally ranked up there with Henderson for us. Chris Cooley likes to say that when he played he could pick the roster within 3-4 guys after just a few days of training camp. Talent is apparent. So if the O's are selling Mayo, they'd be selling him with a 55 FV price tag, not a 30 FV price tag. You probably get some small discount, but team valuations don't ignore that talent just because they're young.

Well, pitching is about velocity, movement and command/control. Most of the guys we're talking about have the velocity to throw a 2s. The movement on that particular pitch doesn't have to be terrific, though you'd take that 10 times out of 10. I'd say for a guy like Akin it's about changing eye level, which means he's have to be able to locate the 2s more than anything else. Poor location on a flat 92 mph fastball will get crushed. Good location after changing eye levels, even if a bit flat, can be really useful. Command is not the easiest thing in the world to master.

I don't think I agree with this. Teams know if they have studs at the lower levels and they value them higher than average guys at the upper levels, IMO.

I wonder what Alberto could make in Japan or Korea. Seems to me like the type of guy who could go there and crush it.

I don't feel like ownership has ever heard the concept of a sunk cost, but whatever.

Weren't a lot of draft bonuses delayed until 2021? I'm not thinking this has to do with money. Seriously, I'm not. I hope this doesn't have to do with money.

Nah. The international signing day is in January, right, so that should be pretty interesting this year if Elias isn't blowing smoke. As for the OP, you all are being tough. No, this guy isn't good enough to be anointed anything, but wildcard is right that he might just fit the profile of a useful backup catcher. Plus, coming from the Rays, I'm guessing he's good at pitch framing too. If the O's can find those sweet spots where it improves this guy's odds of getting a hit here and there, that's perfect. Now, I don't know how complimentary his strengths are to AR's, and that's something I'd want to know, but to know that I'd have to have a sense of whether AR has particular areas where he's less strong as a hitter. I don't know that though.

So my takeaway here isn't that MLB owners would want to get moved up on the list, it's that they wouldn't want to get moved up because they don't want to play baseball before they can fill stadia with paying customers.

If the O's are to be believed re: the injury this year, I'd argue our most under rated prospect is Michael Baumann. I think he's a stud. You can't tell me there are 100 guys that I'd rather have right now.

Cobb wants another pay day. Good for him, and hopefully good for the O's trade deadline.

Tell the White Sox, Astros, Padres, Rays, etc., that it's a dumb way of doing things. You honestly sound like you want the 2003-7 approach where we spend a bunch for mediocrity while just hoping that Elias can fix the minors and international side of things. IDK, maybe that's reasonable, but I feel like there is value in larger draft pools beyond the first pick and I don't believe that all of the profits are pocketed never to be reinvested into the team at a later date.

I don't think Kjerstad not panning out would be a disaster. I'm guessing that some combination of our top 4/5 prospects aren't going to be that good. It always happens, and I don't think we're 100% reliant on those guys all panning out. What's important is that some of them end up as good as hoped, and that we get better than expected production from lower in the list, or from guys on our team now, like Santander.

I get that we're not a big market, but I'm hoping we're not turning into the full blown Rays.

So if he produces, why dump him?

Wow. Maybe I'm wrong about him then. I'll take 2-4 WAR in RF and be happy finding other answers to fill in the rest of the team. I guess you're saying you don't think he'll be that 2-4 WAR guy, right?

Other than the guys they'd bring in between now and then, who else will they be paying? Means? Mancini? The projected payroll for 2023 has to be a pittance at this point. Plenty of room to pay a good player through arbitration, and I'm not even talking about SG's definition of plenty of room. I'm talking about a payroll with pretty much everyone on it being home grown and very cheap.

If this was about 2021 for me, I'd want him traded. I'm with Elias on 2021. It's still about future years. For me, this is about our next winning team and whether Santander will be good enough to be a contributor on it. I think he will, which means I only trade him if I have actual surplus or if the right too good to turn down offer comes along. I think surplus is a real possibility, but far from a certainty at this point.

If I was confident that Santander wouldn't have a big role on our next good team I would want to trade him now. I think he has a chance to be a nice piece on the next good team though, so I'm only trading him if we have confidence in a replacement and/or if a great offer comes unexpectedly.

Well sure, but I'm arguing that they likely don't have enough of that information yet. Perhaps on Diaz. Not on Kjerstad. If you bring in Nunez, you don't replace Santander's offense, you replace whoever we have playing DH's offense. That is Stewart/Mancini/Mountcastle/other. If any of those guys go to the OF, the defense just got worse. And I'm with you on Nunez in theory, but not as it relates to Santander.

This is the key for me, and I'm not ready to conclude that they will be solid. Diaz is a bit of an enigma to me. Nice talent who has never either been healthy enough or otherwise put it together for long enough stretches to really show that he's an answer in our outfield. He might be, but he hasn't done enough for me to want to just hand him the position without a good plan B. Read Tony's reports and you won't conclude that he's the hyped guy we got from the Dodgers. Not saying he's not, but not saying he is by a long shot. Kjerstad is months out of a shortened college season. I know he was drafted high, and I have high hopes for him, but I'd like to see him with a wooden bat first before I'm ready to clear the path for him to take over. He could move fast, but he could also struggle with wood, advanced secondaries, etc. Haskin is the same, without the lofty draft status. Stewart? Meh. Vavra? Maybe. We're just not as set as it seems to be assumed that we are. Not in my mind. That picture could be much more rosy in 6 months though.

First you mentioned Nunez, who's a pure DH. Now you're talking about a defensive OFer, so you're sacrificing OPS. The point of Santander is it's not easy to replace a good hitter and a good defender in one person. We're liable to end up with the RF equivalent of Rio Ruiz or Mark Trumbo getting significant innings. That's not ideal on a contender. I don't think they grow on as many trees as you think they do.

A really nice player who plays more games, which means counting statistics like WAR would be more impressive.