LookinUp

If you believe, like me, that he's created a much stronger amateur player acquisition and development program then you have to like what he's done. I also think the data will put all of our guys, major and minor leagues, into a better position to succeed. I'm assuming that given whatever resources he'd want, eventually he'd be spending on free agents and active in the trade market. I'm also assuming that's not in the cards right now, which makes what he's doing on the minor league side even more important. I am assuming. I don't know what the facts are. I just think he's the most capable talent evaluator and developer I've seen in Baltimore during my life. His leash is VERY long for me.

I'm more concerned about Elias wanting to walk out of the door so he can be the next Friedman than I am of kicking him out the door myself.

I looked to see my previous thoughts, but I didn't post in this thread. To me, he has no time limit. He's 100% capable of doing everything that needs to be done. He will operate under the constraints placed upon him by ownership. I genuinely believe he'll put us in the best position possible under those constraints because he seems to draft and develop well and he's developed the international market. Time will tell how those feathers in his cap mature into the organization, but even if he never signs a good free agent, it looks like he can build a sustainably good franchise.

Huh. Didn't know that.

This could all be true. Or we could be sold. Or we could be going bare bones until we're sold. Or we could be going bare bones into the future. The money being talked about with MASN is massive. I'm not sure the Angelos people were collecting it in their piggy banks. I have no faith in them to spend, at all. at any point.

That's been my hope, but any time you trade existing for future, you're kicking the can down the road...unless you're a team that supplements through free agency/trades, which we haven't been recently.

I don't mind trading anyone in the right deal, but not if our primary motivation is to cut even more costs. Would really limit any value we get back. Either way, this offseason is telling me that the rebuild is longer, not shorter. If that's the case, maximize the value you can get on Mancini and Santander and move on. Will suck around here for a while longer though, IMO.

As if the writing wasn’t on the wall about cost-cutting already...

I was for the Iglesias trade no matter what, but a lot of people were against it because it hurt our defense. Galvis solves that. Some help for the young pitchers. Not a year where we're competing whether we like it or not, so this is exactly they type of move that makes sense. Might as well find a similar option at 3b. Then sell the team, please.

Per Meoli. Heyman is saying 1.25. Meoli saying $1.75.

Yeah. Regardless of whether you want to trade him, you don’t want to trade him from a desperate cost cutting position.

This is either 1) true or 2) false. Lol. If true I'd guess it means they have a trade pretty much lined up. Crazier things have happened. If not true, it probably means they don't love him as a player. Just saying.

The bolded is what I've been saying too. Nobody knows him like SD, yet they keep signing guys instead of assuming he has a spot. Doesn't scream out loud that he's a great player.

Not arguing. I think they liked Kjerstad more than the national rankings because his profile improved in their eyes. That was likely based somewhat on SSS performance, but also on other metrics which they must think are sustainable. That's their job to tease out the important information there, so I'm fine with it. Best case is they found the (previously) most under rated guy out there and got him on the relative cheap while also grabbing a couple additional high upside young guys.

Seems like this could be a prelude to another Padres trade, this time with Cronenworth. Maybe the O's are a fit, like for real?

I was talking about the #30 pick. Elias said they had hoped some pitchers were there. I *think* the target was Bitsko, or whatever the guy's name that Tampa drafted. Overslot guy. So yeah, they liked Kjerstad similar to the other talent there and got the best value, and then they always looked to parlay the extra money later on. Turns out it wasn't for Bitsko. Instead we got Mayo and Baumler, both of whom we apparently love.

Small sample size. I don't know, maybe they had adjusted, but it sure seems like Elias had him projected higher than the rankings generally did. His K/BB rates prior to USA Baseball were unspectacular/not great. They changed. He said he changed his approach. That apparently changed his profile.

At the time of the draft, most of the rankings had not adjusted for his recent (USA baseball, early season) success. Then Elias made statements and people adjusted. Not saying that's wrong, but I think the fact that he didn't have a prolonged stretch with the better approach meant that the composite rankings didn't raise him. If Elias is right, it's a brilliant pick. If he turns out to still have that #10ish profile, it'll depend on the other guys picked. But under slot was apparently a big part of it if you believe we had targeted over slot pitchers with the Westburg pick, but they were gone.

We'll see what happens. I don't want to sound too negative. I actually like Kjerstad and hope that Elias truly was ahead of the curve in seeing a fundamental change in approach through team USA and early 2020. Plus I really like Westburg, Baumler and Mayo, so feel like the combined profile is deeper than it would have been if we just went Martin, who might not even be the hitter of Kjerstad. Anyway, for just about any profile, given Covid, I find it hard to believe they're helpful before mid next year. On net, that means they won't be a 1:1 replacement for a guy like Santander. There's honestly a million ways to go that I'd be ok with. If the goal is really to build this team for 2023 and beyond, which I'd argue it should be, then I'm more on board with trading Santander and others. If I believed ownership would support a trade and replace (e.g., $$) strategy like SG and you are sort of implying we should do, I'd also be on board. If the goal is to replace from our OF depth, I think it pushes things back a year.

For reference, you should go back and read your own comments in the draft thread. The kid k'd a ton. One poster pointed to mental errors in the outfield and on the basepaths. He is not a burner. Probably reminds us as a Mountcastle with a better arm in the outfield. Could end up at 1st base. I hope like hell his bat is amazing, but he was an under slot guy that we took in hopes of getting one of the big arms with our 2nd pick. Didn't work out. Doesn't mean he won't work out, but he's not your typical 1-2 profile.

See, if this is the assessment, I'm much more on board with trading Santander and Mancini this year, even for moderate returns. Absent a really nice return, it's really about 2022 to me. When does Elias want us to be competitive? Kjerstad would have to be very advanced to help us for even 1/2 of next year. Diaz is a wild card in all of this. His success or failure could also change my mind, as could a trade for a quality ML 2b/3b/ss, which in theory could be a push for us but focus on a position of need.

Agreed. It'll be a different story if they're doing this with AR next year, assuming health and performance this year.

It's really not helpful to speculate about who did this. Unfortunately, this is the way of the world with news scoops, particularly in sports.

It's easy to get extra service time, especially on a team that isn't pretending to contend.

Highly unlikely to replace them internally, so it's either FA or other trades. So now we're talking about churning trades in hopes of finding better unknowns than the knowns we have now (who in theory are 2 of our 4ish best hitters).