LookinUp

Which is a fair bet, but they're also betting that the return is worth ~$5 million they spend on him in the interim. I highly doubt they get $5 million in FV out of this because the team taking Villar on will be taking the other $5 million in remaining salary. It will be a net negative for the Marlins.

I still follow that guy on twitter. Very active in politics. Still comments on the O's, at least on twitter. Don't know if he still has that message board. I'm guessing he didn't really get any traffic.

I'm not blind that the O's are saving money, but it's saving money from guys who won't be under control in the future and don't project to warrant high salaries in that future. These deals are about trading expiring assets for future value. Getting something from what, if we don't act, will be nothing. I don't believe he bumbled it at all. Something for a future nothing.

I expect him here unless it's a Villar-like deal. i don't think anyone is offering much of anything for him at this point. He's still a guy who could establish value over 1/2 of a season and net a good return, in theory.

Interesting that it's about equal. My guesses are 1) that Elias prefers future value over present value and 2) Elias has confidence that he can get more from these guys than a fangraph valuation, which is essentially an average value for a spot, rather than player/org specific. Love it when someone with 15 posts makes statements like this. Is it an internet guy making a funny statement or someone in the know who thinks these guys have upside we can untap? Would love to know. I literally care zero about this. I accepted a few years of terrible in hopes of sustained success in the future. This is the price.

I think they traded Bundy for guys Elias wanted. Sounds good to me. A Bundy can be found if we need innings when we contend. I’ll just trust these are guys Elias thinks can help in the future And I’m good with that.

Not sure why people think the chances are low. If healthy, he’s a guy who could start a playoff game for a good team. Big if, I know. A couple weren’t ranked yet, and one had a great year and may have been ranked by the end.

This looks like a very nice return to me.

Reminds me of Eddie Harris in his last inning from Major League.

Yes. You're missing that Elias must see something in them to like. And maybe the O's really are cutting every dime they can. Or both.

I'm expecting (guessing) 1/2 of those arms will be young, raw, with upside.

You'll be reading about him in 7.

I told my 9 year old son the other day that the O's were going to trade Villar and Bundy. He was mad. Said "who are they going to play, high schoolers?"

I think you all are not getting his joke. Just saying.

It became clear when Surhoff came out that Elias was putting his huge stamp on this organization this off season. That resulted in big changes to the scouting department and minor league instruction. It looks like the ML team is part of that big turnover. We thought it happened last year, but this off season is apparently Elias' big reset.

So 5 minor league arms added in a couple of days. Interesting. Elias going with quantity.

Wonder if 2 would be in our top 20.

Givens: very over rated on this board, IMO. Will get too expensive pretty soon unless he builds some consistent results. If he hasn't clicked by July, I'd say yes. Bundy: has real value and more control. May now be ascending under this leadership. I'd trade him for sure because I'm not at all convinced he gets the ball every 5th day on a competitive Orioles team in a couple of years, but not for a deal like this unless he implodes. Mancini: Opposite of Villar. We have control and he's still pretty cheap. He's productive. I don't like the idea of trading him at all because I don't think he's very valued (e.g, bat w/o position value) outside of this org.

I really don't think a sign and flip plan makes sense. There's just not enough time, unless he's on a 2 year deal. If we signed him, I'd rather be open minded that he might be our SS of the mid-future (e.g., into a competitive window). It might not work out, but I think that's the way a move like this would be more likely to pay off the PR hit the team would take in the short term.

An organization that drafts well and signs quality international free agents. An organization with top 5-10 player development. People I genuinely like, who are in it for each other and for the fans. A willingness to re-sign our expensive players and attract others, through trade or FA. The winning will follow.

Russell's major league numbers aren't great. ~.700 OPS, with slightly above average defense. His minor league numbers are better, for sure. Does he still profile (physically) as a breakout candidate or has that ship sailed?

The O's will lose more fans by signing Russell than they did by letting some guy named Villar go. Most fans weren't even paying attention while Villar was having a good year last year. They'd pay attention if the O's signed a domestic abuser. That's not my opinion on whether they should, it's just my opinion that they would.

Sounds like a stupid company, tbh.

If you take a small step back and view this thread re: either Russell or Villar, I think you get a fair representation of what the fan base would think, regardless of whether they're right or wrong. Most will be mad Villar was dealt for a small return. A lot would be angry that we brought on Russell.

I agree with @Luke-OH that Villar is likely over-rated here compared to what other teams think, likely because of better defensive metrics. I saw Villar as a bad defender at multiple positions, lol. I don't think we got much worse, if at all, in 2020 by letting him go. I'm supportive of that move, particularly in light of us owing ~$70 million as part of the MASN settlement. I agree with @Tony-OH that there are many hypocrites re: mistakes being made and people being given second chances. Everyone's in favor generally, but not on their own team. I disagree with that. I agree with many that I don't want to root for Russell. In the end, I don't think the juice is worth the squeeze if the plan is to sign and flip Russell. Who is going to trade something actually useful for a domestic abuser unless he's an absolute stud? What are the chances Russell is a stud this year, based on his recent performance? You get the PR hit the second you get him. You're betting on him being great in that case, so hard pass. If the plan is to give him a chance to be our SS of the future, it's a different consideration. The PR hit would subside over time if he's a likable person who produces. I'd be meh on that.