LookinUp

So why does everyone have him below McKenna? It really shows me that they're slow to move. That might make sense, as baseball can present a small sample size that can significantly mislead. OTOH, you're not pointing out SSS types of stuff with Baumann. I think they see the velocity but are still profiling him as a relief arm, so they're aware, but not really 'on' him yet. It also says something about them, IMO, that they don't move guys like McKenna off their top 10s. On that note, Bowie just hired a hitting coach who focuses on a line drive approach. I'm kind of hoping McKenna goes back to Bowie and tries to hone that approach this year. We'll see.

Either Luke and Tony are way ahead of the curve on Baumann, or something else is happening. Nobody seems to mention him.

All interesting. I'm not sure how payment would work, but the O's apparently have a $70 million check to write. Makes sense that they'd be cutting costs right now.

I would sign him before Russell. He was a kid when this allegedly happened. The lynch mob mentality that doesn't allow someone a future, despite him having processed through the criminal justice system, is over the top, IMO.

I think this is wrong. He will be owed closer to $10 million. Right?

Not particularly impressive stats. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=668862#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL

I am sure that a lot of teams are having this conversation. To me, whatever team signs him needs to seriously plan for the PR nightmare that will follow. He will need to be contrite, not just on day 1 but over time, and the team will need to be ready with all of the answers. I'm not sure if the O's are willing. I guess we'll see. He was a highly touted prospect. The theory is he's never reached his potential. It's a risk/reward move for sure. People will turn against the O's. Keith Law will destroy them publicly. Fans will turn away. But there's reward if you want to find it. I'm not sure that reward is worth it though, to be honest. I'd rather sign the pitcher (forget his name) who had the issues with his cousin when he was a young teenager. Maybe more upside (if he has that value) and less visibility.

This is a 1 year estimate, right? Does it increase to $15-20 million over multiple years?

Agree. Like I said, I'd rather have the lottery ticket (e.g., minimal value) to Chris Davis, who has no value.

I'd rather have a lottery ticket round 3 Rule V pick than Chris Davis. I don't care if he gets better. He's not part of the future here and everyone knows it. If you get rid of Villar, you should get rid of Davis. They're not related except in the rationale for the roster move. An organization that's focused on the future should turn over every available rock to prepare for that future.

Easton is a baseball name. Like, his parents probably named him that because they love baseball. Addison Russell deserves his own thread. All he needs is his own sob story, regret, wants a second chance to prove he's a good man, etc. Someone will give him a chance. This is kind of the point I want to make. I'm 100% on board with this trade. Maybe the Easton kid hits, but I'd also have been 100% on board with simply letting Villar go for nothing. The O's know who they are, for once. They can hire circus clowns to roam the stadium if people want entertainment. Bannon, a potential replacement, would be entertaining. Mountcastle will be entertaining. Maybe Harvey, or some other pitcher will step up. I don't know exactly what will fill the MASSIVE ENTERTAINMENT VOID left by Villar (kidding), but it doesn't make any sense at all to pay the man ~$10 million to be fun to watch for 30 seconds in 25% of the games and move us from 55 to 57 wins. I'm not happy we have Elias in spite of this move. I'm happy we have Elias because of this moves, and others like it. He's keeping his eyes on the prize. The future. At some point it will be the now, but today is not that day and he knows it.

So we should tender Villar, make him a full time SS and trade him at the deadline. Not really, but WAR justifications would say so.

People are ignoring a few posts in this thread. I’ll summarize. Some are hearing that the Os have some offers they like now. By putting him on waivers, the offering team(s) might risk losing him. If true, the Os putting him on waivers is to squeeze the best offer we can. So it sounds like he’s being traded. Hopefully we get a good return.

??? He's a prized prospect. I like Bundy, but Abrams will be a top 100 guy really soon, if not this year. He might have to put up a year before BA etc. recognize him, but he's a top level guy who has a chance to be one of the top prospects in the sport in a year or two.

As in the #6 pick from the most recent draft who had an OPS over 1.000 this year? I'm good with that. Are we throwing in Mountcastle and Diaz to get him?

Just another nudge. The reason I'm asking is because I'm curious how the system compares to itself over multiple years. I was going to compare the current, future and ceiling grades of the top 30. I don't see those grades in the write-ups. I will go back and look again just to be sure. My early look seems to indicate that the top 5/10 is better this year mostly because of AR while the rest of the system, by those grades, is pretty similar. Note that I'm only comparing to 2018 because I don't think those grades are available for the top 30 in 2017 and before. One metric I also wanted to add is age. Just my curiosity.

Smith nearly lost his leg before last offseason. Williams declared he would never play for us again. Reed was too risky. Davis is old and too expensive for a talentless/coachless team. Norman has never produced under Manusky. Even Kerrigan is clearly expensive and at the end. They could have and should have removed all of them and saved the $60 million in real money. They weren't unlucky. They were stupid. They didn't realize what they were. Elias seems to realize what we are. It's possible the reason for delay could be Thanksgiving.

I repped this post because I agree with the sentiment. On the other hand, my stupid Redskins are paying over $60 million this year for guys not playing. They're an extreme case of bad and stupid, but I'd rather have the mindset of getting rid of expensive but only mildly productive players rather than continuing to sink millions into keeping them out of a misguided personal affection, poor player evaluation or wishful thinking. If I were an owner, I'd value a GM who was much more efficient on salaries. That's real money.

Assume we'll get back a non-40 man guy almost no matter what. Don't really know. Money saved will probably be largest return.

You have to wonder what the original tweet actually means. Are the O's working with multiple teams and about to settle on the best offer? Have they agreed in principal, with physicals to come? Is it done and they're just notifying all of the various players moving back and forth? If it's not one of those three scenarios, is it just speculation?

Betting on very young guys in return with some upside if it happens. Clay to be molded.

I think people are high on the idea of having a cheap fall back plan who appears to be somewhat capable. He's not going to be traded to the Yankees and put them over the hump in the playoffs or anything. He's solid depth.

There are a million subtopics on this issue, but it seems crazy to me that the O's would agree to lose Frederick. I feel like another team, probably the Nats, would move in and take over that pretty large metropolitan area. Hate to say it, but Aberdeen is the one that should be cut. Norfolk, Salisbury, Bowie and Frederick are all sizable markets that the O's should try to keep their tentacles into, IMO.

2014 for me. Delmon's double was the most memorable great play of my Orioles lifetime fandom. Loved 2012, of course. Honorable mention to...2019. Yeah, I said it. First time I've seen this team with a smart, coherent, plan since Pat Gillick was GM. If he's good, ten years from now we'll all be saying how important the Elias hire was (which happened in 2018, but you get the point).