LookinUp

And it's a snapshot in time too. The great ones keep improving. Who's to say Basallo doesn't just keep improving and become our Eddie Murray? If he does, he'll probably end up the #1 guy even if he's never rated as such. So I'm on board with your stance that it's the profiles that matter more than the specific order. And I like the order. I just know it's impossible to predict the future perfectly.

Agreed. I thought about including Fabian, but decided to cut it off at Norby and top 10 guys. It's clearly part of Elias' profile though. He goes with high OBP guys.

I guessed most of your top 10 wrong, but as you frequently say, it's about the write-ups, not the rankings. I can't wait for 11-20.

#data We need to add a special rep button for Just Regular. It stands for "up vote, but I'm not quite sure what it meant, I just know I liked it" post.

I bet they move it in a bit, and move the bullpen/smooth the wall, with the new stadium deal.

I'm not sure this deserves its own thread, but the O's are in the process of totally transforming their offense toward one that gets on base much more than we have in the past. It obviously has already begun with the ascension of Henderson and Rutschman. Additionally, Elias's additions of Urias, O'Hearn and Frazier helped with OBP. In any case, I decided to look up minor league on base percentage for a bunch of players. The tldr version of this is we're in the process of replacing guys with new players who get on base a lot more than the guys they're replacing. Here are the numbers: Minor League OBP Rutschman: .390 Henderson: .378 Westburg: .371 Holliday: .449 Basallo: .378 Mayo: .384 Cowser: .420 Kjerstad: .382 Ortiz: .357 Beavers: .392 Horvath: .455 (extremely small sample) Norby: .362 Urias: .352 Frazier: .358 O'Hearn: .356 Mountcastle: .327 Hays: .326 Santander: .335 Mateo: .325 Mullins:. 321

I think Elias waits to promote these guys and gets the extra year of control, and I'm cool with that. If I'm him, I'm not trading these premium guys, even for a TOR starter. We have the opportunity to build a truly great offense for several years. I'd do it. BTW, if Mayo is #3, Basallo's profile will be awesome. Gotta love this, even though my top 10 is pretty much 100% wrong compared to Tony's. I'm either 0-4 or 1-4 with his choices. I may have gotten the Bradfield/Beavers choice right.

Basallo really is a stud. I think nationally people will have him above Mayo. Not sure if Tony will or not, but his comments that they're 2a and 2b pretty much tells you he loves them both. I actually love the comment about this really being about 1c. Three studs. Good problem to have. As an aside, Callis and Mayo did a "draft" for who would be 2024 rookie of the year in both leagues. Holliday was not drafted. Kjerstad actually was though. Cowser wasn't either, but crazier things have happened.

Do they have public data on bat speed or is that only measured through tools like blast motion? The O's certainly know his bat speed, and how it compares to others. Hopefully he can figure it out.

The O's are sitting on a first division middle infield prospect because there's not room for him right now, and the top prospect in baseball is about to pass him. Good problem to have. I assume Elias has chosen Westburg over Ortiz just because of what happened last year. Would he keep a guy like Ortiz in the utility role, or will he try to maximize the value via trade? I think you can argue we could better use Mateo + whatever we get in a trade for Ortiz than keep Ortiz as utility, but I think I'd prefer to keep all 4 of those two, Gunnar and Holliday. I think I'd stick with the younger cheap prospect that I'm sure can lock down the defense for years to come and start full time in the event of an injury to one of the others. That plan goes out the window when a big trade comes though. But I honestly don't even know what I would prefer.

Sam is 3. Heston is 4. Only other option is Mayo at 3 and Heston at 4, IMO. I think Tony loves Mayo and has him above Basallo. And I assume that Tony really likes Kjerstad, but just not as much as those other two.

I wonder if this means teams' 40 man rosters are less likely to be cluttered this year? Certainly seems like it would result in a less robust Rule V draft.

Yeah. I figured there was some red tape, but it's definitely what he is angling to do (with the Nats, in theory).

I'd honestly be shocked if Ted was in any way associated with buying the Orioles. It would certainly mean the Nats aren't selling to him.

Yeah. That's why he wouldn't be protected. I think he'd be picked on potential/projection. Worse profiles have paid off. Just saying. I think a bad team would consider him.

Right. Tells me they're not likely to sign one.

Nobody's suggesting it. I'm pointing out that they absolutely must project more power from his bat. There's no other possibility.

Leonsis doesn't bring a lot of liquid assets to the table, so if he's a majority owner, expect something similar to what's in place now. That could be good for those who like continuity with the current group, but bad if you want him to hand out $300 million guaranteed contracts. Ted's big goal is to build out his monumental sports network. He wants 365 day programming. The Wizards and Capitals aren't enough, so he reportedly wants baseball as well. It would make a lot of sense for him to go after the Orioles and/or MASN, but most sense for him to go after the Nationals and simply move them to Monumental with the MASN litigation wrapping up. If he went after the O's, it raises some interesting possibilities re: the future of MASN. My guess is it would essentially be subsumed into Monumental, perhaps continuing with multiple channels. But the Nats have apparently cooled on selling. I think Ted's trying to get a bargain and the Lerners (who negotiate hard on everything) aren't having it.

Don't they always? It may be arrogance in their own ability to develop at this point, but I doubt they're accepting that he will be almost unplayable outside of a platoon or defensive replacement role. They're probably the ones who put out the Kenny Lofton hype. Lol.

McGough seems like the most interesting guy. I doubt Young sticks anywhere. If Haskin is added, I think it's based on need (assuming McKenna leaves) and optionality. I'm not sure he gets picked and sticks, particularly because of his health, but if I were another team I'd definitely take a flyer on him. In another thread Tony explained the difference between a first division starter and not, using Vavra as an example of the latter. Haskin seems like a Vavra to me. A guy who could put up 1-2 WAR over a full season for a bad team on a very cheap contract. That has value in this league.

Don't forget there was a balanced schedule in 2023.

He targeted an analytics guy who would build from the ground up, including an international program. Of course there's been some luck, but JA made the right decision IMO and for that I think he gets credit.

It's far from ideal, IMO, to have an investment firm like this purchase the O's. It's like taking a private company public. Next thing you know it's very cut throat. Everything's about the stock price (N/A in this case) or preparing the investment for future sale. Other than ticket and concession price increases, I'd imagine a group like this would try to find revenue through TV/Radio and ticket/merchandise sales. That's the good news because it's linked to success. They likely see an asset that's ready to grow, which has been JA's "build the farm while cutting ML costs" strategy. I just wonder what this means for a commitment to any team, rather than to their economic models. From that perspective, Elias is perfect for them. Even then you have to wonder if they want to pay him and his staff enough to retain them all.

It's interesting to me that Kjerstad is not an option here. Not that I would have picked him, but I personally think he sits squarely at #4, and can't really go higher with those top 3, but in theory could have been jumped by a guy or two (in theory).

Do you have a link to the text you're quoting?