LookinUp
-
Posts
8783 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
4
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by LookinUp
-
-
42 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
While I can appreciate the effort you and your son are putting into this, the fun level has to be taken into consideration. When playing a sport becomes work at the youth level, and you are tracking how many throws he makes a day, does it start to lose the fun?
Perhaps not with your son, but I'm betting many kids have no interest in this. At some point the science has to be weighed with the fun factor, especially at the Little League level.
I certainly don't know the answer to any of this so I'm not saying what's right or wrong, but I did coach kids at many level including high school and there always has to be a fun factor in there.I saw kids start to take throwing really serious at 11/12 years old. Certainly by 8th grade. It's the kids that take this seriously and have goals of pitching in highly competitive environments (top travel, top high schools, eventually college). For that type, arm care is really starting to take off.
-
1
-
-
12 minutes ago, interloper said:
Yeah I'm very, very far from venturing into "getting my hopes up" territory. But I guess it's somethin'.
I think it tells us his issue was originally very small or he wouldn't be throwing off a mound. That doesn't mean his elbow will hold up. I think it means they think his issue might have been addressed by the treatment and they are on step 2 (with flat ground being step 1) of starting to test it and building him up.
I think this is really good news. Not over the moon about it, but throwing off the mound is a substantial development.
-
1
-
-
Did they accidentally repost last year's article?
-
1 hour ago, interloper said:
Yeah, I was thinking Kremer watching him as well, but honestly I might like McDermott's repertoire a little more. Not saying he's better than Kremer right now or anything, but yeah.
I feel like McDermott's secondaries are far and away better than Kremer's.
-
19 hours ago, forphase1 said:
I'm sold. Holliday at 2nd, Gunnar SS, Mayo 3rd, Westburg super utility spelling at 2nd/3rd as needed, all 4 sharing starts through the week. Mateo/Urias off the roster. Make it happen.
If Holliday weren't in this org, we'd all be jumping up and down that Mayo should start the year on the roster and contend for the ROY award. You can't tell me that we're better with Urias than him.
I get that it'll be tough having all of Holliday, Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad graduate in the same year from a future contracts perspective, but I want Mayo on the ML roster on opening day.
And while I think 2024 could be great for the Orioles, I think 2025 will be amazing.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:
Yea I think we have to recognize the type of player Bradfield is. Could he come up right now and be what Myles Straw was in 2022? Straw had a sub 600 OPs and still had a 2+ fWAR.
I bet Bradfield could do that right now.
His speed and defense (assuming that every single scouting report is correct) are so elite that he is already a valuable guy.
So, he should move fast. He is 22. He will likely start in Aberdeen and the reality is that he shouldn’t be there beyond mid May or so. Get him to AA and then we can really start to evaluate the hitting more.
That’s when his season and career really start imo.
1. I think the O's will want more development than you will want. Just because he could be a 2 WAR player doesn't mean that's the guy they want to promote.
2. I don't think he and Mullins will be an either/or option for the O's. My bet is they never get the deal they want for Mullins and we have .5-1.5 seasons with both on the 26 man roster.
-
14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I don't have an abiding dislike for the man I'm just irked when folks do things like cite one type of WAR without identifying it.
He wasn't the worst thing ever but I also don't think he was a needed addition. Westburg outproduced him by rate even using rWAR.
I don't think you appreciate how different you are than others.
I'm not saying you're wrong, but if I was to look up a player's WAR, I'd go to BBref and tell you what it said. I know there's two different versions, but I don't know the difference and my base assumption is that the difference wouldn't be very significant. Maybe that's wrong, but I don't think it's subterfuge to not provide a citation for a WAR stat.
-
1
-
-
12 hours ago, RZNJ said:
Good post. I think the point is that some players keep improving and others hit a wall. If Cowser improves his weaknesses he can still become an all-star level player. He improved all during his first year playing at 3 levels. He finished at Norfolk and was just okay. He returned to Norfolk and was much better there. He really struggled in a SSS in the majors. Now we get to see if he can make further adjustments.
Right. And I'm not saying Cowser will be the guy to really improve his profile. I'd put more money on Povich to be honest. Less on Fabian and Bradfield, though obviously I hope I'm wrong there.
With that said, of everyone, I think Cowser almost gets the benefit of legit failure. That brings clarity. If he didn't get into the offseason with open eyes, I don't know who did. Hopefully that really benefits him because he, and all of the experts trying to help him, really should know what he has to work on.
-
It's useful seeing the profiles about all of these guys, both from Tony and even from the national guys. I do tend to look at them differently though, and Cowser's the perfect example why.
He's a highly rated prospect that plays good, but not great, outfield defense, has a good eye, good exit velos, but problems with offspeed stuff, LHP and premium velocity.
To me, I care more about his problems than his ranking. I think we make a mistake when we look at prospect write-ups as if they're the finished product. The real value I gain is in understanding the profile and then (hopefully) seeing improvements. Look at McDermott. Last year he was a 2-pitch reliever in Law's eyes. Now there's more and he may be a starter. Bradish was similar. Means also took a jump forward. I don't love Bradfield's profile, but I have hope.
I don't even know why I'm writing this, lol. Maybe it's a pep talk to people who think Cowser really will only be a 4th OF/platoon guy. I'm not saying he won't. I'm just saying that just because it's what he looked like last year or the year before doesn't mean that's where he'll settle as a player.
I'm a huge believer in player development in general, what can be accomplished in the offseason, and the Oriole's current approach, so I expect continued improvement from guys like Povich, maybe Cowser, etc., and for those prospect write-ups to be proven premature when they say that they'll not get closer to their ceilings.
-
3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
Yet there was a reason he was available still in the 3rd round.
I'm not bashing on Lord because he might be a steal, but sometimes I think these guys get a little too enamored with a guy because they see certain data like spins rates, shapes and from hitters perspective EVs.
All of that is good and it certainly gets us interested, but there are reasons why guys fall to where they fall. Now I didn't see Lord pitch outside of his college videos and he threw a ton of fastballs, something he'll have to adjust at the pro level. Hopefully it will come together but I think it's way too early to put him so high in a deep system like the Orioles.
Hopefully Law will be proven right, but that's pretty high for a guy who put up a 6.19 ERA in college last year and has never thrown more than 75 innings in a season during which he had velocity drops. He's got major reliever risk currently.
I always get a kick out of national guys, or less informed local guys. I'm not saying that they never get a look or some intel that is better than yours, but it doesn't seem like it happens very often.
-
On 2/8/2024 at 6:23 PM, Frobby said:
To me, that would be grounds to sue MLB into the Stone Age. The whole MASN deal expressly contemplated that it would remain binding in case of a change in ownership.
Yeah, I don’t think Manfred is raising the MASN issue out of the blue. I assume Angelos and Rubinstein entered into their agreement with a future state of TV rights contemplated.
Basically, I’m not saying MASN won’t hold up an ownership change, I’m saying those negotiations are way farther along than the report indicates.
-
I think our payroll will look like a bell curve that starts well below the median payroll, goes up to a top 10 payroll, and then goes down some closer to the median. It won't be flat though. It'll be driven by talent.
In other words, normal in a post Angelos world.
-
7 minutes ago, Orange said:
Makes sense... Why were Pierre and Coleman different? I guess they were just once a generation outliers and you shouldn't build up a prospect to be like those guys because it isn't likely to work.
Yes, they were outliers, but they still weren't that valuable in the aggregate. I do think this type of player can play a massive role within the context of a team, but I don't see a path to a really high WAR career unless he hits the ball with authority.
[Edit: As RZNJ points out, it's important to acknowledge that his BB rate/swing decisions seem better than those guys, which is great.]
-
16 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:
There is value to keeping McDermott, Povich, and Johnson, starting in AAA for as long as possible this season. It’s a shot at developing a SP out of the three and plus they get more AAA IP to learn how to get batters out. More chances to develop secondary pitches.
Also, we play a ton of high leverage innings. Not many opportunities just to flop a rookie SP into the MLB and a new role as a reliever.
I think they think of him as a starter, but that doesn’t mean he is a starter this year. I really think he could be our electric arm out of the bullpen.
-
I have a feeling that McDermott will be our DL Hall replacement, just not until July or August at least. He’s the guy who will miss bats.
-
3 hours ago, Pickles said:
I've actually been thinking about it. I've been one of the most conservative voices on the board in regards to a prediction of Holliday reaching the MLs.
I think the Ortiz trade probably speeds up his schedule.
I think the more accurate question is how Holliday’s timeline influenced the Os approach to trading Ortiz.
Ortiz should never be a barrier to Holliday.
-
1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:
He’s not a bad guy. I did his show on 105.7 years back but the questions are always bad.
I did wonder if maybe he was late getting to the conference call.
Very sarcastic, snarky, judgmental, know-it-all type of personality. Doesn't seem like he ever played a sport.
He's kind of in a Jason LaCanfora category for me. Both were in DC. Didn't like them there either.
-
Even after the trade, there's a still a log jam of outfielders and infielders. Some guys are going to be really sick of Norfolk really soon (they already are).
-
37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
I mean, Jerry Coleman will always ask stupid questions. Harbaugh basically calls him out on that every week. After answering the question multiple times, Jerry asked, how long have you been talking to the Brewers?
Jerry Coleman basically prefaced his question by saying "Sorry, I wasn't listening to anything else you just said, but ..." and he then went on to ask questions that had already been asked and answered.
That guy is really... nvm. If you can't say anything nice.
-
1
-
-
My takeaways from Elias (reinforced by Burnes):
1. No more big moves before the season unless some random opportunity arises.
2. No extension for Burnes.
3. This is a go for it in 2024 move.
-
2
-
-
3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:
I agree with you, so long as it doesn’t compromise your ability to pay other studs that are better value (i.e. extending young guys). But the Orioles’ payroll obligations are so wide open that they should be able to lock in 1-2 premium free agents at full market prices and still be able to. So they should be exploring it with Burnes.
The problem is Burnes is going to hit the market and we’re going to be up against the Dodgers and Yankees. No we he’s extending for less than his starting asking price, which won’t be a penny less than $325M. Boras was asking for 9/270 for Blake Snell. As good and as durable as Burnes is, I’ll believe it when I see it that the Orioles are willing to shell that out, let alone to a 30 year old pitcher.
Burnes is almost certainly going to be a rental but it was still a good deal.
I think a lot of things are possible. I know what he said last year, but it also appears there were genuine hurt feelings in Milwaukee.
I'm holding out hope that Burnes really likes it in Baltimore and is willing to take a ton of money to stay here before hitting the market. He still gets a huge deal, but is willing to take it from us before the Yankees jump in.
-
I haven't read the whole thread, but I suspect a trade has been in the works for Burnes or Cease for weeks, but was possibly held up because of the business process of selling the team.
I do think they would have taken on this payroll in 2024 regardless of whether JA sold the team or not. So I voted yes.
I do think there's a small chance that Elias preferred a Burnes trade as his future Verlander, and only made it because there's a new owner.
So I do think a trade taking on this payroll was going down either way, but it's possible that the new ownership moved it more towards Burnes than Cease.
-
2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
I certainly think Elias has been working the Burnes deal for a lot longer than a couple of days. While I don't know the answer, it seems to make sense that he was able to pull the trigger or decided to pull the trigger on the Burnes deal for two reasons.
I 100% think the O's couldn't make significant changes to payroll while they were finalizing this deal.
I don't think that fact means Angelos is cheap. I just think it means that the major financials were settled on and shouldn't be changed in the middle of the process. I think that's standard operations during a massive deal like this.
-
30 minutes ago, TradeAngelos said:
At least one person gets it. Maybe the other 500 around here will get it one day.
I'm taking your side in this. The O's payroll should probably be between $150 and $200 million annually.
I think the O's big problem will be in 4-5 years when those numbers will have to swell big time. They'll have to figure out how to make the books work at that point. On the other hand, maybe by then they'll be filling the stadium with a lot more fans, have an actual profitable TV rights deal and be regular recipients of playoff revenue. That could change everything.
With all of this said, even extensions to Gunnar, Adley and Holliday are mostly going to be back loaded. Now is a perfect time to bring a guy like Burnes in, maybe front load the money a bit to entice him and have a less severe escalation in future payrolls, and count the wins.
2024 Minor League Spring Training tracker
in Minors
Posted
Alas, Eric Birdland blocked me a year or two ago for calling out Crede Willems' weight. Sucks. I do like his videos. He does use that block button vigorously. lol