LookinUp

Yes. He’s athletic. I want to say he’s a 50 runner. Not a burner, but a mover.

Dbacks won.

With 10 games remaining for both the O's and Diamondbacks, we are tied. http://www.tankathon.com/mlb The Diamondbacks have the 3rd hardest remaining strength of schedule. The Orioles remaining strength of schedule is 19th hardest. So much easier if that wording was confusing. http://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength

I do think guys like Lowther and Wells are case-studies for why pitchers should prove their worth at all levels, particularly with the difference in baseballs at AAA. My assumption is that the definition of command and control gets much more refined as you go up in levels and that guys need to prove they have it at each level, particularly guys with less pure stuff. AA's precision either doesn't get the job done in the majors or has been lost by our guys, possibly because of the balls. Anyway, pitchers simply get away with more mistakes if you have better stuff in general, so I'm sure we're on the same page in valuing some good combination of stuff/command over a choice of one or the other, with neither being below serviceable.

Interesting take. I definitely favor age and results in general, but when it comes to stuff versus command, I'll fall on the side of stuff. With that said, one of the more recent discussions of stuff is spin rates and I have no idea if the velo differences also translate into spin rate differences with these guys. Rom is younger than Brnovich and has nice results, but I'd really like to see one of his predecessors (Lowther/Wells) start to click at the ML level before I rank him too highly.

I'm not sure what he looked like before, but that swing looks pretty damn powerful to me.

He has put together a decent little youth baseball program on the eastern shore. They're kind of second fiddle in that area, but a good program for sure.

If I was tanking, I would have hit him too.

Call me when we've seen a full season from Cowser. Covid changed age comps. You're aware of that.

I don't like lazy comps, but I think Markakis is a pretty damn good one. They're different types of outfielders, but seem to be similar hitters.

I can't say this for a fact, but I do know that the O's are very very big on swing decisions. Knowing the count, tmking a good approach and not expanding even with 2 strikes. I don't know if he's looking at strike 3 that's over the plate or many that are just off the plate, but the belief is that the umpiring gets better at higher levels so the O's aren't knocking guys for taking strike three that's 2-3 inches outside, for example.

SG's answer is the correct answer. If ownership wants to compete sooner, they can. If they're not ready to spend for whatever reason, you go sportsfan's route. Both are plausible in theory. The one thing you don't often see is a competitive team that's purely home grown. Even the Rays bring in a lot of outsiders. I'd expect a bunch of trades starting this offseason and through next offseason. Our top 30 list will look a lot different, both with additions and subtractions. The 2023 and 2024 Orioles are not going to be comprised of only guys that our in our control today. It won't even be close I'd wager.

That is exactly my point.

Right. So about Gunnar, if he starts in AA next year and has a great year, I can see him being promoted to the majors next year if there weren't service time issues. I don't expect Gunnar to necessarily put himself in Grayson Rodriguez territory on the prospect scene, but the current system would delay him by several months for sure.

Dangerous in terms of drawing conclusions. I would expect more young players to be promoted if 1) they were on the cusp and their team had a glaring opening and/or 2) their team was in playoff contention and could really use that awesome arm out of the bullpen or power bat.

Well, your post states that the number of young players has declined since free agency started. Obviously you didn't do a full blown study, nor should you be expected to do that, but isn't it fair to conclude that player control has affected the number of players making the majors at a younger age? It's pretty striking that the raw number has declined as the number of teams, roster size (though I don't know history there) and youth playing options have all been enhanced. * I concede that there other other confounders, for example players are likely playing older now, so there may be fewer spots available then there otherwise would be if the same age curve was expected.

I think pointing to averages is dangerous in general. Pointing to averages from days gone by before modern baseball is also dangerous. And pointing to averages as opposed to how teams in different competitive situations specifically handled younger players is also dangerous. I have no idea whether any of this will affect Henderson, or would even with major service time changes, but I absolutely think that ML teams that aren't competitive but have young stars would be motivated for many reasons to promote guys sooner than they do now.

https://pressboxonline.com/2021/09/15/terps-te-chig-okonkwo-thrilled-to-be-back-after-bout-with-myocarditis/ This article is not about Kjerstad. It's about a MD tight end who missed all of last season with myocarditis. I obviously don't know how similarly severe his affliction was to Kjerstad's, but the upshot is he's back and playing for MD football this season. Gives some hope that maybe this whole thing will pass for Kjerstad.

I think the definition of what is and isn't ready would change dramatically if the contract issues weren't what they are. Guys would actually develop some aspects of their game at the major league level. Particularly guys with openings on the ML team.

We do know some stuff that they're working on and it's not exactly meant to make your stats look good. They'd rather you take strike three looking with a pitch off the plate than take that same pitch and hit it up the middle. They're all about swing decisions. It's a long term approach that will reduce counting statistics like hits and HRs. I do wonder how that approach translates to strikeouts though.

Yeah. I don't think we know this answer yet. He certainly has nice upside. The main reason he won't get a chance in Baltimore next year is service time. Unless that rule changes significantly, I just don't see him even getting a cup of coffee. The only thing that could change that is if we're somehow competitive next year, just like when we brought Machado up, but I don't know anyone placing bets on that.

As of this minute I'd go: 3) Mayo, 4) Cowser, 5) Hall, 6) Henderson, 7) Westburg (or other) I'll take Mayo's power over Cowser's approach, though I love both. Also take Hall's risk at his level over Gunnar's. I know batting average isn't a great stat, but his OPS is actually not the problem in my eyes. He's just not making a ton of contact. The power's there when he does, but I'm hoping for a significant jump in BA next year in addition to a more reliable glove, which I think will happen. I really like Westburg, but am just not sure where in the 8-10 range I'd put him. Mostly out of my own ignorance of the guys also close to that spot.

I know it sucks to lose, but if we go through a rebuild and then short circuit it because of emotion then it really would make me question Elias' approach. I don't love this at all, but at least I understand it. He's trying to build the farm, get the maximum years out of the new guys AND time the arrival of guys together to improve our odds. That means we wait and that stinks. But at least it's a direction. We have no idea what ownership will do, but the Elias part re: building the farm is clear as day to me.

It's fair to say that Mayo will be ranked quite highly after this season. It's also a great debate about who should be the higher ranked prospect between him and Henderson. I know the hype is with Mayo right now, and rightfully so. I love the kid too, but to be fair... Henderson still has the possibility of being a SS on defense. Mayo may not stick at 3B. Henderson is a level higher and about the same age. Henderson bats LH. That said, we've seen some warts exposed on Henderson this year. Too many errors. Not hitting LHP very well. We'll have to see how he progresses to know what he'll be. We also will likely see more warts on Mayo when he moves to a higher level.

Sounds like he needs some serious strength and conditioning this offseason.