StottyByNature

I suppose reasonable minds can disagree but I absolutely think Cease is 2x more valuable than Glasnow. You get him for two seasons and he has been significantly more healthy than Glasnow. Glasnow has only gone over 100 innings once. Cease is also relatively cheaper.

As always I look at these reports through the lens of who gains an advantage by it coming out. If it's an NL executive then this person's team is not trying to get Cease but is trying to drive up the price for a competitor. Or, and more than likely, it's tied back to the Sox who are still not happy with the offers for him. I still believe getting Cease is the logical and obvious move for the O's, much in the same vein as Kimbrel. It seems like the Sox are stuck between what they perceive as his value and what everyone else does. They were dumb not to trade him at the deadline last year because teams would have gotten three postseasons out of him and now that's down to two. Unfortunately, though, if they are going to continue to be unreasonable this may not happen. I would not be surprised if they continue to be stubborn and if they don't get what they want they push this trade to the deadline this year. Once someone puts their foot in the ground it can be difficult for them to come off it.

Is it? Lowder is #41 on MLB.com and Petty is not in the top 100. We have been discussing Cowser and Ortiz (I don't know where you stand on that but seemed the majority would do it) which is MLB #14 and #50. Seems like maybe Cowser and Hall plus some lower level guys would be a better offer. Them asking for Holliday last year was unreasonable. Sounds like they are much more in a reasonable ballpark.

It is definitely a smart, rational move. I would be hesitant to give any reliever multiple years given how volatile the position is. Kimbrel gives you a pretty good sense of what you're getting and I can't imagine it's for any more than a year with maybe an option. Keeps payroll flexibility while filling an obvious need.

I think it'd be a mistake going into the year thinking Cano is going to close. As great as he was last year, his numbers are skewed by an other-worldly start. I expect he's more of the guy we saw in the second half. Still good, but not dominant. Kimbrel makes a ton of sense. It's not exciting but he adds stability to the pen and allows Cano to be in a lower-leverage spot which suits him better. I will admit I can't stand that weird stance that Kimbrel does and he has struggled a bit with the pitch clock. I'm not looking forward to watching him but I completely get the rationale.

I think Luzardo would cost about the same as Cease. While Luzardo comes with one more year of control, he has also only ever pitched on full season (I suppose 2 if you count 59 innings in 2020). Cease is more likely to take the ball 30+ starts per year. I'd rather get a piece with more certainty while perhaps sacrificing potential upside and control.

His FIP the past three years is 3.41, 3.10, 3.72. I think that's an accurate reflection of the guy. Good track record, takes the ball, lots of strikeouts. A Cowser/Ortiz package is fair value for that. Anything more would probably be too much.

I'd offer Cowser and their choice of Ortiz/Westburg/Norby. I would definitely throw in a third flier but no one in the top 15. The trade makes too much sense not to happen.

It's an interesting thought and clearly addresses a need. However, if we're going to trade a good prospect for a reliever I would want at least 2 years of control and at least 2 years of demonstrated success. Relievers fluctuate so much from year to year, this is a buy-high on very little track record to go on. That's why I'd pass.

I would do this trade. Cease is the type of pitcher we need - someone who is clearly a playoff starter with the potential to dominate a game. He is not a 4.58 ERA guy like in 2023 and he is not a 2.20 ERA guy like in 2022. His FIP for both years has him in the mid-3's. That is very valuable for two years and fills a desperate need of this team. We have a number of good pitchers, we need someone with a high ceiling for the playoffs. I think the trade is fair - we have to give up something good but it makes sense to trade from surplus to fill a need.

I'll go with "rated". He's a great guy to have for the long haul of the season because he takes the ball and will give you what he's got. What he's got is pretty good but when he's even a bit off it can get ugly. He is not someone you want as a playoff starter. I'm still glad we have him.

It's a fair question. The expanded playoffs keeps more teams in the race. The flipside is that the best teams are penalized. I would guess we will see some sort of change to try to give the top teams more of an advantage but the truth is the answer to your question is "yes" because the MLB wants more money and this is one way to get it. (Obviously it will be a relatively low-rated Series but that is part of their calculation.)

I went with McDermott. I think we have a glaring need for bullpen arms and we might just find that he slots in perfectly. I would also not bet on us having such durable starters this year. The other guys don't have as clear a path to regular playing time.

Awesome, thanks!

I bought tickets for ALDS Game 5 and ALCS Game 7. I haven't gotten a refund yet and can't find info on when to expect it. Does anyone know?

I don't think that would get much better than we already have. Bradish/GRod/Means are the clear top three. Kremer will definitely get a spot and then Irvin/Wells/Hall will be considered for the 5th spot. Our starters were quite durable this year and we should not expect the same next year. I agree that going after another guy makes sense, and that guy should be better than Kremer. I don't think the people you listed would get that. I still think the guy that makes the most sense is Dylan Cease. With new leadership in place I would hope the White Sox would be more reasonable about their trade demands. Cease is better than his ERA showed this past year - FIP was 3.78 compared to a 4.58 ERA. Trouble is, his FIP was 3.10 in 2022 when his ERA was 2.20. I think we could reasonably try to get him as a mid-3 ERA guy with a lot of strikeouts. He has also been quite durable. I'd be willing to dip into our top-100 guys for him with Holliday obviously excluded. He could be a difference maker for us both over the haul of the season and as a high-upside postseason starter.

Verlander was the one I wanted. I also thought Eovaldi made sense. I thought Rodon was the best of the bunch but would never have given him 6 years.

I like what he said about the wall. It obviously achieved what he wanted it to (not having the most homer friendly left field in the league) but he recognizes that it may not be the most aesthetically pleasing solution. Work can be done to keep the wall back a bit while smoothing out that area so it fits the rest of the ballpark better.

A successful season would be to again make the playoffs. I think it would be unrealistic to expect another division title given that our run differential showed we were a little lucky to win 101 games this year. As stated, all you need in baseball is a chance in the playoffs and hope that you're hot at the right time. It is much different than football or basketball in this respect. Having said that, I believe that offseason decisions will also determine success. (And I don't mean success in terms of results, I mean in terms of trying to address problems on the 2024 roster.). Are we simply going to stand pat on the starting rotation, perhaps ignoring the fact that we had a very healthy 2023? Are we going to recognize that Cano is likely more of the pitcher he was in the second half than he was in the first and address the bullpen accordingly? Will the owner put more money into a franchise that is clearly on the upswing? I think our performance in these areas will define success for me as much as the ultimate win-loss totals.

MLB playoffs are about who is hot. If we lucked into a Mateo heater then he needs to play no matter the righty/lefty matchup. Urias has been scuffling anyway. By the same token Hicks has to play and they should consider sitting Mullins. It was good to see O’Hearn have a good swing, maybe that carries over.

They are as good of a team as we have had in a while. I hope they stay for a long time.

I got Game 5 ALDS and Game 7 ALCS. Likelihood neither will happen but would be a cool experience if they do. Only games I could get, but living far away getting a membership didn't make sense.

Thanks for the clarification. I really don't want to see us push Bautista, as great as he is. While the club needs to be in win-now mode he has his whole career ahead of him and should not risk it. I don't know the full extent of the injury but if he is being asked to go out there in a compromised state I hope he respectfully declines.

I think the bullpen can limp through the end of the season and get us the division. The decision here should be all about the playoffs. We can really shorten up who we use in the postseason and it will be some combination of Cano, Coulombe, Perez, Webb, Hall, and Fujinami, probably listed in order of trustworthiness. Lopez and Baumann won't see the light of day unless it's a blowout. I think Flaherty would slot nicely in here given 3 of our top 5 are lefties. It will be interesting who we line up as the fourth starter as well. My guess is it will be Gibson on an extremely short leash followed quickly by Means or Irvin.

As a guy born in 1982, Adam Jones is my second favorite Oriole behind Cal. (Mussina would have been #1 until he went to NY.) Adam Jones gave everything he had to his team and his city. He was a fun player to watch but more importantly, in my opinion, he was a fantastic leader.