CaptainRedbeard

Fangraphs’ depth charts with just the Steamer projections have the Orioles at 35.9 fWAR, #21 overall. ZIPS may like the Orioles more (they certainly like Kremer more) but I doubt they will move up more than a few places when ZIPS is added in. For reference, the Brewers are #15 at 41.9 fWAR. Barring some really unexpected moves before the start of the season, Fangraphs won’t be projecting the Orioles to even be .500, let alone 83-87 wins. More likely they will project in the 74-79 range.

The Orioles seem determined to have a lefty backup 1B, which means that one of Stowers/Cowser/McCann will need to be in the lineup against LHP, even when everyone is healthy. I hope it will not be McCann at DH/1B and we instead give those reps to Stowers/Cowser to see if they can handle MLB lefties (particularly Stowers, since his MiL track record against LHP is good), but I’m not optimistic.

Wow, that is a massive difference on Kremer! Steamer has him projected for 0.8 fWAR. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player where the projections between the two systems differed so significantly. I’m sure that will be talked about in the article. ZIPS is also higher on Wells than Steamer, which has him projected similarly to Kremer. Everybody else seems pretty close to the Steamer projections.

He hasn’t pitched, but his only arm injury was TJ surgery. His only other pitching-related injury was the stress reaction in his ribcage at the start of 2022 - then the broken pinky and broken (non-pitching) wrist. And he was actually quite durable for years before all that. It wouldn’t be without risk and I wouldn’t necessarily want to give up much to get him. What if the price was Jorge Mateo and we hold onto all our key prospects? The Red Sox need a proper SS as they shouldn’t be playing Story there. It could be a nice sell high on Mateo and buy low on Sale. The key with Mateo is whether they think it’s worthwhile giving Gunnar a shot at SS. I think they should see how that goes considering we have Ortiz on the horizon who can definitely handle the position defensively.

Red Sox getting trade interest on Sale and are not looking to move him but are willing to consider. I don’t know if they would be willing to consider moving him in the division, but he could be a good target to gamble on as a #1 who won’t demand a Burnes-level package. Sale is due $27.5m for two years and has a 2025 $20m option.

Yeah, their system is super deep at CF - Mitchell at the MLB level, Frelick in AAA and Chourio at AA. Their system is very thin on infielders but they’re pretty set there at the MLB level with Adames, Urias and Turang. I could see them being more interested in corner bats - Mayo, Kjerstad, Beavers. And you can always use more arms. So our system doesn’t actually match up that well with them.

Adley Rules: -One day completely off per week, whether by travel or sitting a game (but can still pinch hit). -One game DHing per week. -Never catching more than 3 consecutive games. -Never catching a day game after a night game that he caught in. I think that’s roughly what they did last season. How many games per year does that end up with him catching vs. DHing?

Kluber will likely get something like 1/15. Wacha will probably get 2 years, but perhaps at a lower AAV. Eovaldi is definitely a better pitcher than those guys and has much more upside if he bounces back to the 2021 version. But how much better that a team will want to give him 3/50-60 with the injury concern and QO penalty? The Orioles and every other team in the market for a SP are looking at those 3 and weighing against the trade market. I don’t think Eovaldi separates himself in a huge way.

I think he will at least sign a deal comparable to the QO - something like 1/20 is the floor for him. Ultimately I think he’s likely to end up with something like 2 yr 40m with an opt out in between. It’s not likely, but I could see the Orioles being a good fit - OPACY is now a attractive for him because he has reverse splits and the Orioles will give up less for the QO than many other teams. I think the general consensus on his contract at the start of the season was too high because of the injury issues last year. Bassit is a pitcher of similar quality and an yr older, but much more durable and coming off a completely healthy season. If Eovaldi had a Bassit level 3 yr ~60m deal on the table I think he would have taken it by now. It would be foolish if he has that on the table and was holding out for a 4th year.

I think Eovaldi’s market has really been hurt by his injury concerns. In the first part of the year, he had his normal velo around 96-97 but then it dropped suddenly to 94 in his June 8 start and never came back. When he came back at the end of the year for two starts to prove he was healthy, he had his lowest velo of the year in the first start (93.6) and then it only bounced back to 94.4 in his final start, where it had been the whole year since his sudden drop off. If injury concerns are limiting his market, he could be looking at a 1 yr deal or 2 yr with an opt out to prove he is healthy and re-enter FA. However, with the QO attached, that puts him in a really tough spot because not many teams are going to be willing to give up the draft capital for that. As a revenue sharing team that would give up less draft capital, it’s possible he could fall into our laps for a deal like that. The whole point of the wall was to make us a more attractive destination for FA pitchers hoping to rebuild value so maybe that’s all we are offering right now and hoping he settles for that.

Mountcastle is the only player on the roster who really plays 1B, so the last bench spot could go to somebody who can cover there. Certainly one of the other IF or Adley or McCann could play there if you just needed to give Mountcastle a day off, but that’s giving away a lot of offense (and if Adley, somewhat defeating the purpose of trying to give his legs a day off). Mancini seems perfect to me but he’s probably still looking for a role where he would get more money and playing time. So it may just be somebody else with a RH 1B profile who is just not as good as Mancini.

$2.5m for a backup catcher is only pricey in the sense that it’s a position that is often filled by league minimum players. It’s not pricey for James McCann, who projects do be a cut above that, despite his disaster last year. Zunino and Hedges just signed 1/6m and 1/5m deals and McCann is in the same class with them. Is it an efficient use of resources to pay a little above league minimum for a backup C who projects to be a little above replacement level? In our case I think so, as we’re going to have Adley DHing often and we don’t have compelling internal options that McCann is bumping out. It’s not a Frazier situation, where the contract is defensible as reasonable in terms of market value but nonsensical (without any other moves) in terms of blocking other prospects. Because of the depth of the organization right now there are only so many roster spots where we can actually improve the team with cheap FAs and backup C was definitely one of those most apparent instances.

Completely agree - not only does does having Adley DH that much keep him in the lineup more often, but we should be playing the long game with him. Shouldn’t wear down his body when we’re counting on him to be the foundation of this team for the next 5+ years. And that approach only works if you have a decent backup C.

McCann at 2.5/yr for 2 yrs is pretty solid. He had a horrific year offensively last year but there’s good reasons to think he rebounds. Over his career he’s been quite good against LH pitching (but not in a small sample in 2022, he was hilariously bad), so he pairs well with Rutschman. And he has a good reputation defensively I believe. That said, if they have any actual intention to give James McCann extra at bats at DH or 1B, even against LH pitching, that would be astonishingly stupid. He has a career 83 wRC+ and is projected for 86. Even against LH pitching, he has absolutely no value if he is not catching.

Agreed, Givens definitely shouldn’t be in any sort of specific late inning role because he needs to be used carefully to maximize the RH batters he faces. He’s always had large R/L splits, as you would expect from his arm angle. The positive spin on that is that even if he’s declining, he’s still going to be a big asset against RH batters, and there’s value in that for matchups in the middle innings when teams are less inclined to pinch hit.

At this point, I’d like to see the Orioles go in even more on making the bullpen a strength and target another lefty, like Taylor Rogers or Andrew Chafin. (Or, to a lesser degree of interest, Aroldis Chapman or Matt Moore). That’s a market we can play in without breaking our apparently meager budget, and all the big market teams are probably less inclined to pay the luxury tax for guys of that caliber and won’t be doing the whole long deal, low AAV strategy for RP. Even if we end up with an Eovaldi, Wacha or Kluber, our rotation is going to have a lot of 5 IP starters and we need to gamble on the upside Hall brings as a SP, whether in the majors to start the year or back in AAA developing. We are going to lean on the bullpen again a lot and there’s space for another lefty if Hall is starting. Bautista, Tate, Perez and Givens are locks, along with Voth (with no options). Baker and Akin are as well, but they both also have options if we need flexibility in-season for a fresh arm. Voth and Akin can give you length, so that 8th spot can be another lefty to pair with Perez. I’d rather have a second quality lefty than Politi, who can still force his way onto the roster with a strong ST or via an injury. Besides Gibson and whoever else they add, all the SP candidates have options. The 3 who look best in ST start in the majors (likely Kremer, Bradish, Grayson) and the others can continue being stretched out in AAA as SP (likely Wells and Hall). Wells and Hall would be assets as RP but I’d rather have them stretched out as depth for SP injuries and to continue developing them as SP. We will also get another year of control back with Wells if we send him to AAA to start the year.

If there's anybody they need to "lessen the pressure on," it's Hays (and to a lesser extent, Mountcastle). Hays in particular was horrific in the second half of the year and has dealt with / played through a lot of injuries in his career. If he doesn't bounce back he's going to be a potential non-tender candidate as soon as next season. Adding a LH hitter that can play LF in OPACY effectively to a 1-yr deal makes sense to me. The bench has one spot open after McKenna (or another RH CF backup), backup IF and backup C. So you can go with the addition, Stowers and Santander at LF/RF/DH vs. RHP, and Hays, Stowers/addition and Santander vs. LHP (and vs. RHP with reverse splits, since Hays doesn't have a big platoon split). However, Cowser is probably going to be ready by midseason. And Vavra could also be an option in the OF in the meantime. So it doesn't seem essential, and if they are going for more than 1 year it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Fangraphs doesn't have projected standings yet, but they do update their depth charts promptly with each offseason move: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2 From the depth charts, Fangraphs adds in strength of schedule and that's how they get projected standings. Right now they just have Steamer projections in the depth charts, but when ZIPS is ready they do 50/50 between the two and populate projected W/L. With current MLB rosters accounting for all signed free agents (and not counting the signed free agents), the Orioles are 20th in projected fWAR, and 12th in the AL. If you were to just take that and then account for schedule, even with the more "balanced" schedule I expect that still comes out something like 72-78 wins. The position players as a group are in decent shape - 13th in MLB, 8th in the AL. But the pitching projects horribly, 26th in MLB and ahead of only the Royals and A's in the AL. So where you think the Orioles come out "as is" really depends on how much pitching regression you expect. Steamer is very bearish on Kremer, Voth and Wells, and I think too harsh on Dillon Tate as well, but even looking at this with orange-tinted glasses the pitching really looks like it will hold them back from building on another above .500 season.

They could definitely go that route but seems like they either need to go for somebody meaningfully better than who they have, or somebody short term that won't block Cowser. It's hard gauging what they're looking for because this acquisition is going to in some capacity cut into opportunities for Stowers/Hays/Santander/Mountcastle in 2023...tough to tell who is on the outside looking in for their plans for 2024+. In terms of 2023 roster construction it likely hurts Stowers the most, but Santander is FA after 2024 and Hays after 2025. I don't think it bodes well for their view of Stowers if they're willing to hamper his development in 2023 when there's likely to be room for him in 2024+. Looking for a LH bat now together with how long they inexplicably waited to call up Stowers after trading Mancini last year tells me they may not be too high on him.

Interesting - where did you see that? This is the latest I see on Brantley and the Astros, from Monday: https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/baseball/mlb/player/19057/michael-brantley The Astros are definitely in the same market for a LH hitter, but I think they're more likely to be looking at the higher end and Brantley is perhaps a fallback for them. Given Alvarez is a poor defender, they're probably looking for somebody who can offer more defensively than Brantley, who was solid there in his prime but is now going to be 36.

The LH bat is interesting, especially since Elias said they're looking for one of the caliber that they would slot into the opening day lineup. Elias also said they are conscious of blocking prospects, and anybody they add is going to make it harder for Cowser to make his way into the lineup this season, in addition to taking ABs away from either Hays or Stowers (and Vavra, if they think he's an OF and not a 2B). If the LH bat they add can play 1B or they think Santander, Stowers or Adley can play 1B, then they could also cut into Mountcastle's ABs, but I think only a handful of the available FAs fit that description. Reading between the lines I think they are only looking for a 1 yr deal for the LH bat. Looking at the LF OF/1B/DH available: Nimmo - not going to happen. Benintendi - going to get an expensive multi-year deal, so no. Profar - likely to get a multi-year deal given age and strong platform year, but he could be on the table. Conforto - perhaps the best case scenario, if he's looking for a 1-yr deal to then re-enter FA next year. Gallo - likely looking for a 1-yr deal similar to Conforto, with the positive that he may have 1B flexibility, but coming off a truly horrific 2022 season. Brantley - I think the most likely guy we end up with, given he will get a 1 yr deal, probably won't demand every day ABs given age, and has continued to be a very good hitter for a long time. Belt - similar to Brantley, but a bigger injury concern and showed much more drop off last year. Peralta - maybe the last fall back option, but don't see the benefit to adding him to take ABs away from Stowers. Carpenter - can definitely still hit, but much more of a bench bat than "Opening Day starter" at this stage. I don't see anybody else that would meaningfully slot above Franchy Cordero on the depth chart. There's a handful of other guys similarly around the cheap 1-yr deal / MiL contract line, all of which should also definitely be behind Stowers in the Opening Day lineup so not really fitting the description that Elias provided. Altogether, I'll be disappointed if our only moves are to add Gibson, one of the above, and a middling SP. We aren't going to be projected to even eclipse our 83 wins from last year if those are our only moves.

At some point (if it hasn't happened already), they are going to need to turn to the trade market. These are all of the SP projected to be worth 2.5+ fWAR next year (by Steamer) than I think could be even potentially available: Burnes (MIL): 4.9 Rodon (FA): 4.7 Bieber (CLE): 3.7 Woodruff (MIL): 3.7 Lodolo (CIN): 3.7 Greene (CIN): 3.2 Singer (KC): 3.1 Gallen (ARI): 3.0 Lopez (MIA): 2.8 Bassit (FA): 2.5 This excludes SP on contending teams (and TEX, CHW, SF and Alcantara, depending on if you consider those teams contenders, as they are nonetheless unlikely to be available). The other free agents are below 2.5: Eovaldi 2.4, Manaea 1.9, Kluber 1.7, Stripling 1.5, Wacha 1.5, Syndergaard 1.4. IMO, they're better off overpaying for Bassit or Eovaldi if they don't think they can land any of the pitchers on that list above. The QO may help keep their contracts in check. If not, MIL and CLE have said they are not looking to move their guys, so unless that's posturing or otherwise changes, it really comes down to whether you can pry one of those young/controllable SP from CIN/KC/ARI. The cost would be very high, but we have the farm to do it and likely the desire given these pitchers fill a need and are cheap/controllable. That said, it takes two to tango. And of course there is Pablo Lopez - looking at the list this way, it's no surprise that is the only name that comes up again and again when thinking about trade options.

I'd rather go for Nimmo than Correa. Correa is projected to be a 5.0 fWAR player next year (by Steamer), Nimmo is 4.5 fWAR. Nimmo is 1.5 yrs older than Correa but may only cost around half of what Correa will command. With LF now so cavernous, Nimmo's defense wouldn't be wasted there they were hold onto Mullins. He would also free up Mullins and/or Cowser to trade for pitching. And even if there isn't a deal there this offseason, they could always just start the year with Mullins in CF and Nimmo in LF (with Santander/Hays/Stowers rotating through RF/DH). If Cowser forces the issue by tearing the cover off the ball to start the year in AAA, you can make a deal at the deadline. Once Rodon is off the board, the only really big ticket FAs left are all hitters - Correa, Bogaerts & Nimmo. Nimmo makes more sense than the SS if we are actually "big game hunting" IMO, but I really doubt that's happening.

Thank you! I started coming back this season - the 2017/18 seasons coincided with me being much busier going to law school, then my first few years as an associate...I've been lurking most of this year, but the offseason is what really gets me posting. This is shaping up to be a really exciting offseason and absolutely critical for the direction of the franchise. Can't wait to see how it goes.

We should add two quality SP, either through FA or trade, but we don't need any more back-end types. Let Lyles go, and fill SP 3-5 with a combination of GRod, Kremer, Wells, Voth & Bradish, with Means coming back mideason. We have a lot of depth here so we only need to be adding quality. Kremer, Wells & Bradish all have options, so we're not going to have a roster crunch even if everybody is healthy. I love the idea of having the depth to convert Bradish and Hall into RP for the stretch run if we don't need them as SP at that point of the season. We should pretty much only looking at the FA SPs in tiers 1-3 in that list, and there's a lot of decent options there to pick up two of them. Unless we feel very confident that Santander or Stowers can become a passable 1B in the offseason, we also need to be adding a 1B. I'm not quite willing to give up on Mountcastle (although of course he's a good trade candidate if the value is there), but I don't think we should be locked in with him as the only real 1B option. Adding a 1B gives us ability to have them and Mountcastle at 1B/DH with Santander in the OF, and I'm not fussed if it cuts into Mountcastle ABs to have Santander DH. I love Josh Bell as this option - a bit worrisome that he's done so poorly in SD, but that's also going to bring his price tag to a more palatable level. There's not a lot of intriguing FA after Bell so I think he could be a priority target. Less important, but we also need a proper backup C so that we don't run Rutschman into the ground. Preferably, a RH batter so we have more options to play matchups given Adley's weakness from that side this year. I like Christian Vasquez for this - he is just good enough to probably be looking for a starting role, but hasn't been quite good enough this year to command one. Lastly, there's also a lot of interesting veteran RP options, could be a decent value to add there. We could benefit from another set up type so we can push Baker and Khrebiel out of higher leverage situations.