CaptainRedbeard

Not expecting anything out of Akin, but if Givens actually comes back healthy and effective as he was in 2022 that would be a huge add. A big “if” at this stage of the season.

Fangraphs rest of season fWAR projections: Verlander: 1.2 Scherzer: 1.1 Montgomery: 1.0 Flaherty: 0.6 The extra half a win certainly does make a difference in increasing their odds of skipping the wildcard round, that’s a fair point. But these are still very small margins of difference at this point. Not that Scherzer or Verlander were ever realistic, but say that we traded Joey Ortiz instead of Cesar Prieto to get a pitcher 0.5 fWAR better than Flaherty for rest of season. Does 6 years of Joey Ortiz instead of Cesar Prieto increase our playoff/WS odds cumulatively over those 6 years more than the extra 0.5 wins this season? Having elite pitchers, either SP or RP, does matter more in the postseason when you can concentrate more of your IP to your best pitchers. But the playoffs are still very much decided by what team gets hot at the right time, and the overall team quality matters a lot more than marginal differences brought by a single player (short of Ohtani, Judge MVP 7+ WAR types).

This article is overvaluing the difference that a big deadline move would have made in WS chances this year. Because the odds of making the playoffs are already very high, that’s all a move would be affecting. Even the best available SP at the deadline - Scherzer, Verlander, and Cease - wouldn’t individually move the needle more than what, 0.5-1%? And how much does the entire package of prospects required to get that pitcher cumulatively affect those prospects’ 6+ years of team control? It’s a fair point that in the AL East you need to be ready to pounce on those rare years that the Yankees / Red Sox are down. But I think Elias/Sig see this team as positioned to being consistently competitive for the near future, at least during the remaining 4 years of Adley’s rookie deal after this one (and hopefully longer). They should be worried about maximizing the playoff & WS odds during that whole time window, not just this season. If the Orioles were in the position of the Astros or especially Angels, with a weak farm system and the Angels headed for some very lean years if they don’t retain Ohtani, it makes sense to try to concentrate future value into present value this season. But they are not. They can take a longer time horizon.

After starting off his first 2 weeks with 5 Ks in 40 PA (from 7/5 to 7/20), Cowser has 13 Ks in his last 23 PAs. He had bad batted ball luck in the start and I’ll continue to defend him for that, but is now struggling to put the ball in play, which is much more concerning. His chase % is still very good but the Z-contact is now subpar. Cowser is going to have rope until Hicks or Mullins come back, and coincidentally that’s probably about the amount of time the Orioles need to make a call. If Cowser does not turn it around quickly with his contact rates he should not be getting significant playing time in a playoff chase. If it’s bad batted ball luck that’s one thing, but if he’s struggling with contact then at some point you have to pull the plug and say he’s gotten his taste of MLB pitching, gotten “punched in the mouth at the next level” as Elias has said, and he’s got the things he needs to work on in the offseason. This is not a big enough sample for me to be concerned about the long term prospects of a 23 year old 5th overall pick who has absolutely raked at every stop of the minors for 2 years. But the team is just not in position at this juncture to be breaking in prospects with significant growing pains for extended periods with a 1.5 GB lead on the Rays in August. Winning the division and the bye through the wildcard round are on the line.

Translation: The Sigbot says buyers at the trade deadline always give up more value than they receive. It’s justified only by placing more value on the present than the future, which you do need to do when your team is in the right position, because you can’t be assured to be there every year. I think they balanced well this year. Fuji was an a terrific gamble at very low cost. Flaherty came at a higher cost, one more than what he’s probably worth when you plug it into a computer based on $/WAR, but that’s how the market works being a buyer. This team is in position for a playoff run and needed the reinforcement, so they bolstered that opportunity without mortgaging any of the very bright future ahead of them.

Gunnar has infinitely better plate discipline than Manny, but Manny has a better hit tool. Otherwise, it’s a good comp. Manny is like Gunnar with a dash of Ryan Mountcastle. (And that’s not to be disparaging to either Manny or Mounty - Mountcastle has a top line hit tool / power combo. It’s just the chase rate…)

There might not even be a spot for him (or Kjerstad) with the expanded roster without an injury, if both Hicks and Mullins come back and they are only sending down McKenna. Assuming they want the extra pitcher and are only adding one position player, they’d have to send down Cowser or Mountcastle or DFA Mateo or Frazier. Right now sending down Cowser is the only realistic possibility there. This off-season Frazier and Hicks will be gone, but they’ll still have 5 vet OF/1B/DH (Mullins, Hays, Santander, Mountcastle, O’Hearn). Barring a trade, you can add one more to that group and expect them to get fairly regular ABs, presumably Cowser OR Kjerstad. Leaving just 2 bench spots in flux - if Ortiz is starting SS, then it’s Urias and Mateo. But if they want a proper defensive backup CF instead of Cowser or Hays, then somebody has to go. And if they also want BOTH Cowser and Kjerstad to get playing time, then two somebodies have to go.

Gunnar had a huge June, but did so by getting more aggressive and still retaining some swing and miss - he had a 5.1 BB% and 30.4 K%. He was so passive earlier in the year that he was getting pitches to hit and he clobbered them. In July, seems like pitchers adjusted and Gunnar did as well. He was back up to a 9.9 BB% and all the way down to a 19.8 K%. If Gunnar continues improving against LHP and settles in as a 10 BB%, 20 K% guy, he’s going to be a perennial MVP candidate. With his defense, power and hard hit rates that’s an insanely productive combination without many weaknesses.

Josh Bell is a decent recent comp from last offseason: switch hitter, coming into age 30 season in 2023, career 114 wRC+ with 119 and 123 in the two prior seasons. He got 2 yr, $33M with an opt out. Santander will be 30 in 2025 and has a career 108 wRC+ with 120 last year and 124 this year. Santander could string together 3 consecutive good offensive years and has more defensive value than Bell so he’ll likely get a 3rd year because of it, but he’s going to be around $15M AAV and not $20M. And almost certainly not get 4 years barring some much improved defensive metrics.

The Orioles aren’t going to shut any of their pitchers down, but it’s impossible to know now which starters end up in the rotation vs the bullpen in a playoff series. I don’t think the Orioles know themselves and they are going to take things as they come. I believe Elias when he says they are not going to adhere to a strict IP cap because the analytics don’t support that, but they will adapt as they go using common sense and the metrics available to them. Bradish, Kremer or Grayson could fall off like Wells. Grayson is certainly at the highest risk of that happening and/or the Orioles just being more cautious with him, plus him profiling as a dominant RP. Gibson and Flaherty might not pitch well enough to deserve a playoff start. Means could come back and get stretched out enough for 4 IP starts, which works just fine in September/playoffs with the extra pen arm(s). Irvin or Povich or even Hall/McDermott could be needed as SP or openers. No way of predicting how it shakes out right now. They are going to roll with their current starting 5 until they need to adapt. But the addition of Flaherty certainly gives them more insurance and flexibility.

A lot depends on how they view Kjerstad. If they are planning on the “Gunnar timeline” with a September debut and full playing time next year for a shot at ROY, then it’s going to be hard to fit everybody in without a trade. If it’s the “Westburg/Ortiz timeline” with him getting more time in AAA than likely necessary and maybe being a mid-year call up / depth option, then you keep Santander another year. It doesn’t help that Cowser has not been good and looks poor in CF. They’ll need to use a roster spot on a backup CF unless they are comfortable with Cowser or Hays as the backup, which squeezes the roster and playing time even more.

I also preferred Montgomery, but FWIW I think the main prospect who the Rangers gave up for him, Tekoah Roby, is a lot better than people realize by just referring to him as their 11th best prospect. It’s hard to evaluate prospects at the deadline because the evals are frequently not fully updated or just slow to catch up. Fangraphs did their full eval of the Rangers system on July 9 and had Roby as a 50 FV prospect and in the top 100. That’s above Povich, and closer to on par with Joey Ortiz. If you agree with that eval, I certainly prefer the Flaherty deal to the equivalent for Montgomery. To put it another way - STL definitely had a higher asking price for BAL for Montgomery than Flaherty. At the same price I’d prefer Montgomery, but how much more would you be willing to add/sub to Prieto/Showalter/Rom to get Montgomery instead? For a 2 month rental I don’t think the difference between Montgomery and Flaherty is big enough to give up much more prospect capital.

I agree this is likely the plan, unless a deal comes along where it makes sense to move one of Westburg/Ortiz. But there is still some time before Holliday forces the issue, he’s a likely Sep 2024 call-up. By 2025 Urias and Mateo will be 31 and 30, respectively, and definite nontender candidates if they haven’t already been traded, considering how much value they derive from defense and the aging curve for that. It’s a bit of a luxury, but you can easily accommodate 4 starting caliber players for the 3 IF positions. The Orioles are doing it right now with Urias/Frazier and even Mateo getting decent playing time with Gunnar and Westburg. You need depth in case of injuries, and prospects are no sure thing anyway. They clearly prefer a rotating DH and likely Westburg will be the piece that moves around most. He’s tall enough to play 1B and also fast enough to perhaps play LF (and he played a little LF in the minors). Wouldn’t put him out there in OPACY of course, but he could provide that flexibility.

There are 13 pitchers and 13 hitters on the active roster so it will be a pitcher they send out for Flaherty.

Also, Flaherty will take Rom’s spot on the 40-man, so no need to remove Krehbiel now. He has options so likely he gets optioned and he could pop up again if needed.

He had a 3.00 ERA at Norfolk on the year but his peripherals were awful. 7.50 K/9, 5.10 BB/9, 6.33 FIP, 5.34 xFIP. When he was added I assumed he was just serving as a fresh arm that they wouldn’t mind DFA’ing again or riding the Norfolk shuttle, plus he is well liked in the clubhouse and did have a good run in the first half last year. However, after seeing the stuff tonight, I’m more inclined to throw those season AAA numbers out and give the Orioles the benefit of the doubt that they may think they could have corrected whatever was broken. Still seems likely that Krehbiel is the one who goes when Flaherty is added, but perhaps he escapes a DFA and we haven’t seen the last of him yet.

Did the Orioles fix Joey Krehbiel (again)? He looked pretty darn good tonight. Statcast showing much improved velo and spin rates on the fastball and especially the cutter.

Rom and Prieto were definitely good pieces to deal now. A 40-man crunch is coming and they weren’t going to survive it. Prieto is a decent prospect but low ceiling given the lack of power and uncertain defense, and he had no future here even if we were to trade more IF this offseason. Rom is never going to be a SP considering his inability to develop a CH and lackluster FB velo. He could potentially be a good RP, but the FB would really need to play up. I think there’s a good chance we look back at this trade and think it’s clear we cashed in both of these trade chips at the peak of their value. Showalter stings and certainly feels like the trade could have gotten done without him, but he’s a A ball RHP who was not a heralded draft prospect and has a lot of reliever risk in his profile. Not a guy to lose a lot of sleep over. The problem is Flaherty is adequate but thoroughly underwhelming. Maybe we can unlock something more there, but to me he falls right around the Gibson/Kremer quality level. He’s more depth and we’ll likely be glad we have him if there’s an injury or Bradish/GRod/Kremer fade the way Wells has with the increased IP, so I’m glad we did something to support the playoff push. But it’s not going to be fun holding your breath if he’s taking the mound in a playoff game.

The small return for DeJong probably means there’s no sense in holding out any hope of getting anything notable for Mateo. Not a lot of buyers looking for SS apparently.

Players with limited NTC over X number of teams often choose teams who are most likely to trade for them in their NTC so they have that leverage. Like, nobody wants to play for the A’s, but why waste one of your teams on the A’s when the A’s aren’t going to trade for you. The Dodgers are like the inverse of that.

I’d only deal Cowser/Kjerstad/Mayo as the headliner for Gilbert. I could perhaps be talked into one of them for Cease, but only if much lesser prospects are the additional pieces. No way any of them for Keller. One of Ortiz/Westburg can be on the table. Every other prospect below that group is fair game. Norby is the only big name prospect I’d actively prefer to move.

Baker, Baumann and Irvin can all be optioned. And Perez has been hovering in DFA territory for some time. He’s a nontender candidate this offseason.

Opt outs are a great way to structure contracts so that you can guarantee a player a certain amount and give them additional value without actually guaranteeing more money. But that’s when you’re trying to sign a player - when you’re acquiring a player that already has one, it’s all downside. They are positive value to a player and negative value to the team. Eduardo Rodriguez would have more trade value right now if he was a true free agent after the end of this season and didn’t have the opt out. In fact, if the Orioles ever want to get serious about the FA market they are going to need to get comfortable with opt outs, which they were very opposed to in the DD days. They are never going to be able to compete on offering top of the line guaranteed dollars versus the big markets, so their best way to compete is with opt outs, shorter deals and higher AAV (which hit the luxury tax teams harder).

I like Carlson as a buy low target. If nothing else, he could fill the Hicks role for beyond this year as an ideal 4th OF - good defensively and can handle CF, switch hitter but better vs LHP. Complements the rest of the OF very well. Offensively, he’s got a good BB rate with a decent K rate, and underperforming his xWOBA quite a bit this year. It seems like the key to improvement is unlocking more power, and if the Orioles can do that with Adam Frazier than they can do it with anybody.

A player option / opt out is only downside for the team. The player is only going to not go to free agency if they think they’ll make less that way, most likely due to injury or otherwise a terrible end of the season. I think it’s likely a contributing factor to why Rodriguez is one of the last available SP to move, because it’s hard to value and is almost assuredly depressing his trade value, perhaps moreso than DET thinks is appropriate. (Unless you have an Arenado situation, but that was highly and unusual and you wouldn’t have that type of relationship with a 2 month trade acquisition.)