CaptainRedbeard

The price for a Snell/Hader package is going to be crazy high after what the White Sox got for Giolito/Lopez. Norby+ is not going to get it done. However, if Snell/Hader are your top FA targets this off-season and you’re willing to give them strong enough deals to keep them from hitting FA, maybe that changes the equation? Maybe enough to consider Ortiz or Basallo?

Well that’s interesting! Snell is a great target but there’s nobody else like Hader available, and he would be a HUGE playoff piece. Definitely more in the camp of “improving our odds of a deep playoff run, rather than odds of making the playoffs” as Elias recently described… I would be surprised if the Padres are full on sellers. The “not trading Snell and Hader” was probably posturing but they are going to do something weird, like trade Hader and Snell and then also trade for some cheap rentals or guys with control beyond this year. It is going to be a tough sell to their fans if it looks like they are throwing in the towel on one of their all-in Soto years. I still think if the Padres want to go with a “focused on 2024 but not giving up on 2023” approach and the Orioles want to hang onto their best prospects, they would be interested in Santander. He plugs a huge hole on their roster, there aren’t many COF/IB/DH types available now, he’s under control for 2024 and the Orioles will need to make space for Kjerstad soon. However with the Orioles offense struggling and with some injuries I’m not sure we would move him, even with Kjerstad about ready.

Povich is not Rule 5 eligible until after next season so it would definitely be out of character for Elias to add him to the 40 man a year early, but we are now in a different position than we’ve been for the rest of his tenure. If they think he would be an asset out of the pen in the stretch run, he could be an option. It’s unlikely we’ll need him as a SP with Irvin as depth and Means on his way, but Povich is probably next on the list (perhaps behind “bullpen game” and maybe Rom). I’m more interested in when they will try Rom as a RP. His AAA K rates are great and he doesn’t look like a SP without a proper CH, but he could be a good RP. He’s already on the 40-man. Makes sense that they’d want him starting through the trade deadline as a potential trade chip, but if he stays in the org he should get a look as a RP before the season is through. Similar story for McDermott as well, although he is not eligible for Rule 5 until after 2024, like Povich.

With the big day yesterday, Wagner is now up to a .248/.375/.425 line, good for a 122 wRC+. 24.6% K rate is not great, but offset by a stellar 15.1% BB rate. He also has a shocking 25 SB. Not bad for a 21 year old in A+ ball. He’s definitely on promotion watch now. In years past he would have gotten a lot more attention in our system. Now it seems he may be destined to be nothing more than trade bait, but he’s shaping up to be a pretty solid prospect.

IMO with both Povich and McDermott, the K rates were so high in AA that they weren’t being challenged enough to get a read on how they’ll do against stronger competition, despite the overall results not being stellar. AAA and especially MLB hitters are going to put the ball in play earlier in counts. They certainly could have continued working on their command at AA, but they had a crutch of offspeed pitches that AA hitters couldn’t really handle. That could either make AA hitters over aggressive trying to avoid 2 strikes or overly passive hoping just to work walks, depending on the hitter and the count. They won’t be as dominant that way in AAA and will be forced to make adjustments more akin to what pitching to MLB hitters will be like.

If you look at who is under control for the 2024 Orioles, the only notable prospects who should be ready for a 2024 MLB debut and are blocked long-term are Norby and Prieto. Those are the only prospects that I’m looking to deal imminently, although both could have even more value this off-season with a strong finish to their AAA seasons. Beyond that, it’s right player for right price. There realistically aren’t going to be players available worth trading Holliday, Kjerstad or Mayo for. Cowser and Westburg already have MLB roles and runway to become core players. Ortiz and Basallo are theoretically available, but would have to bring back a big return that isn’t likely to be available IMO. I also think a Hall trade is unlikely given his depressed value and potential to be a long-term LH back-end RP, with Coulombe only under control through 2024 and Perez an impending non-tender candidate. Povich is the only upper-level P prospect with a realistic chance to stick as a SP. Fabian is the only upper level OF with starting CF potential. I think all 3 are available, but unlikely to get dealt given the current composition of the organization. I think we’re going to see deadline deals for a rental SP, rental RP and/or RP with additional control and only be trading from Norby, Prieto or prospects not listed above. Then this offseason they’ll be after SP, but remains to be seen whether they’ll do that via free agency or via trade.

How about a Tarik Skubal from DET? He’s now made 4 effective starts in July, with good fastball velo. He’s presumably healthy. Still under control for 3 more years after this one. DET isn’t likely to be keen to move him for that reason, so it would take a lot, but I like him more than Mitch Keller and he’d cost less than Logan Gilbert.

Maybe next year he goes back to starting, depending on how good he is as a RP and what the MLB bullpen looks like after the offseason. At this point in the season, there’s not going to be much season left to build him up to SP workload regardless of where he’s pitching. He’s certainly not breaking the MLB rotation even if he were stretched out. However, if the velo bounces back enough he could still pass Perez as our 2nd best LH RP for the playoff push.

Hall averaged 96.3 mph with his FB last year at the MLB level. With his secondaries, I think he could survive losing a couple ticks and still be a very effective RP this season. The FB velo is obviously critical but even last year I thought his CH was his best pitch, and he seemed more comfortable locating/throwing the SL for strikes than the FB. Definitely time to pull the plug on trying him as a SP. If he puts together a full, healthy and effective MLB season as a RP you can consider going back there. But if he’s regained any of his velo in FL he needs to be on the fast track to the ‘pen for the stretch run.

IIRC Elias has stated he likes to push guys up a level near the end of the year so that they can get “punched in the mouth” and figure out what they need to work on in the offseason. If Holliday continues tearing through AA the way everybody expects him to, he’ll definitely see AAA before the end of the year.

In addition to all the other mentioned reasons, Mayo is listed as 6’5” 230. He’s a huge dude. He’s a great athlete and may be able to handle RF now at age 21 but you have to wonder when he may slow down. Learning to play OF could also distract some of his focus from hitting development. Learning to play 1B as a 3B is not nearly as burdensome IMO. On their own I don’t think these are reasons to not try him at RF before 1B, but when you combine them with his proximity to the majors with the bat, the need at 1B and Kjerstad not really taking there then it makes sense. He’s probably going to be ready for a MLB debut from an offensive standpoint very soon and 1B is the most logical way to make that happen.

Realistic best case scenario is we land a quality SP that’s a clear improvement upon our current crop and reliable late-inning RP to pair with Bautista/Cano/Coulombe (both preferably LHP), without trading any top 100 prospects, including Ortiz and Basallo. Ortiz and Basallo may not fit into our future teams and could be viewed as expendable or trade targets for selling teams, but they are too valuable to give up for rentals.

Even with the very low spin rate FB this guy has an incredible arm. RP in the upper 90s may be commonplace nowadays, but 102 and a mid-90s split are not. He’s also 6’6” with 84th percentile extension, so that with the 100+ mph velo and 2nd percentile spin rate is an extremely unique FB look out of the pen. Love the deal, we got him essentially just by taking on his (modest) salary. Lucas wasn’t going to crack our 40-man and Fuji is 100% worth it for the upside he brings. Bodes well for the flexibility to add payroll at the deadline too if they’re willing to spend some of it here.

Across all the signings it seems like the compiled a solid chunk of savings. Only question is whether they all go to Baumeister or they can pull a rabbit out of the hat for one of the late overslots?

The Padres have Manny and Bogaerts locked into their IF for a long time, and Kim has been excellent at 2B and still has 3 arb years after this year. Additionally, Cronenworth has regressed with the bat and now looks like a subpar 1B, but a better fit at 2B. They are quite set for some time in the IF. They also have Soto and Tatis in the corners in the OF, and Grisham is a solid CF with 2 more arb years. They are really lacking at C, 1B and DH. They could also use more quality pitching and pitching depth. In terms of near-term prospects, the Orioles don’t match up great because Kjerstad/Mayo are far too valuable and there aren’t upper-level corner bats behind them, pretty much just Stowers. At C, Basallo is too valuable (and too far away) and Willems is just too far off. We don’t have much in the way of spare pitching prospects either. If the Padres are looking for major league ready prospects at their positions of need, we aren’t going to be able to meet that.

From the limited times I’ve seen Kjerstad running the bases I agree he looks much faster than what he’s been billed as. And Cowser a bit slower, but he’s definitely not slow. So you may be right and it’s close or a smaller edge for Cowser. Kjerstad also has the arm for RF so I haven’t given up on him being average or better there, and if he is then he’s more valuable than Cowser.

I agree with this - even if he’s not a CF, Cowser is going to have a lot more defensive value and even if the power never comes through, a lot of offensive value via his OBP. However, I’m very excited by Kjerstad’s combination of huge power and potentially much better than originally advertised contact skill. He could be a 30+ HR, <20% K rate, high BABIP guy with still a decent amount of BBs, and that’s a really rare bat. Not many at all in MLB as a whole and there isn’t another player in the Orioles’ system, MLB or MiL, that profiles to potentially check all of those boxes. Both, along with Mayo, are pretty much untouchable for me.

So it was re-injuring the groin again, not the quad as was originally announced. Not great. Until we hear otherwise, worried this could potentially be a long absence and you have to be concerned about it lingering even when he does come back.

The most optimistic scenario: Elias’ statements about the first year being the best year of FA SP contracts are the driving force behind not pursuing FA SP yet. Ownership is not standing in the way. Elias thought the team would be more .500ish this year and didn’t want to constrict payroll in 2024 with a FA SP that may no longer be on a favorable contract when the team would be more coming into their own. This off-season they will actually go for it. The more realistic scenario: Elias was sincere about the “first year” line for FA SP, but John Angelos is not going to sign off on a significant overall payroll increase or the risk of an expensive FA SP. We’ve got no way to get above average SP other than hoping we can develop one or giving up huge value in prospects for a hypothetical SP that may never come available. We won’t know for sure until the offseason. Fortunately, it’s looking like it will be a strong FA SP market. Unfortunately, last offseason was a huge disappointment in terms of willingness to spend, and if they do the same again this offseason I don’t think it’s ever going to be different.

Westburg has been struggling a little bit with the power stroke translating to MLB pitching, but everything else has been good at the plate and in the field. He doesn’t have any very hard hit balls (107 mph max EV) or a barrel yet with a hard hit ball at the right launch angle for a HR, but he has an excellent overall 53.5% hard hit %. Above average Z-contact, which is a great sign considering the K% was the biggest question in his MiL profile, and only a bit below average chase rate. He had 4 balls 95+ MPH last night and definitely very legit power in the minors, so hopefully that’s coming soon. He should be playing nearly every day and fortunately that’s what the Orioles have been doing with him.

Mateo can have a clear bench role as a pinch runner and occasional SS v. LHP, particularly for games started by Gibson or any more contact/GB-focused SP we get at the deadline. That may not be worth it with our roster crunch so I’m not losing sleep if he’s the odd man out, but teams do often carry bench guys like that in September + playoffs. Given his defense this year, Frazier really doesn’t offer anything with both Urias and Westburg here other than a lefty contact bat off the bench. That’s nice to have as a pinch hitter on a playoff team but IMO not moreso than an elite baserunner like Mateo. Mateo can be our bench pinch runner / defense guy until we call up top 100 prospect Enrique Bradley Jr. in Sept 2025.

Only reasoning to send Wells to the pen is for workload concerns, not performance. He’s already approaching his max IP in a single season. I believe Elias already said on the broadcast that they are going to be less conservative with pushing SP workloads now that they are in contention and Wells has been one of our best SP. He said they are looking for other ways to limit his workload, such as how they just gave him the max rest between starts with him starting 5th after the ASB. Notwithstanding last night’s bad start (which could also be attributed to the extra rest?), he is going to be in the rotation all season+playoffs unless he has an injury or dramatic loss in velo or performance. And that’s the right call. But until Elias came out and said it, it wasn’t out of the question that the Orioles could have taken a hard line IP cap approach with him given their past approaches. FWIW, I think Grayson will be treated the same way. If he’s one of our best SP and we make the playoffs he will be starting. But if he starts to show fatigue or the performance isn’t there, they are not going to hesitate to move him to the pen for the stretch run given his workload concerns. He would certainly be a weapon in short stints (as would even a diminished Wells).

As others have said, it’s 36 PA so not at all close enough to draw conclusions on, but still: .136 BABIP 19.4 BB% 13.9 K% .260 xBA .332 xSLG .371 xwOBA 40.9% Hard Hit % 84.1% Zone Contact % 18.1% Chase % That’s a very good to elite plate discipline profile and he’s making a lot of contact. We wouldn’t even have this thread right now if more of the grounders found holes and his BA matched his .260 xBA. He is only hitting the ball hard on the ground right now. He needs to start hitting more balls hard in the air. But that’s a natural part of the progression to the major league level, and he’s not a small slap hitter where we need to worry about him ultimately having enough power. There is some legitimate concern that a true power stroke won’t ever come for him at the MLB level given his very high MiL line drive % and low FB%, but even with the zero power right now, he’s walking so much, making enough contact and hitting the ball hard enough on the ground to run a great xwOBA. He’s just been very unlucky. I do think his defense has been poor, but it’s been 9 games. The scouting reports are all that he is at a minimum a plus corner OF even if he can’t handle CF. We don’t need him to stick in CF on this team long term, or even right now with Hicks around.

Eduardo Rodriguez’s 2.70 ERA this year is below his peripherals and the recent injury is something to consider, but he’s got a 3.27 FIP and 3.48 xERA this year and mid-3s FIP and xERA in each of 2018, 2019 and 2021. He didn’t pitch in 2020 and last year did not do well, but had apparently had personal issues going on that took him away from the team last year for an extended period. The way he’s performed this year gives some assurance those are behind him. He’s not an “ace” or TOR but if he’s healthy he’s a very solid SP that is well above average. The recent injury and his 2022 season should be priced into his trade value as well.

I agree, although O’Hearn certainly benefited from the shift ban this season. His xwOBA were consistently much higher than his wOBA over 2019-2022. He was actually at .327 last season and is .350 this year. O’Hearn also hasn’t made any gaudy jumps in plate discipline or max EV either - he’s performed much better via an extremely high rate of hard contact. That may not be sustainable, but it’s an easier narrative to buy coming from some swing adjustments.