CaptainRedbeard

Heston is going to be ready to debut on the Gunnar timeframe with <45 games remaining where he retains rookie status for next year. Question is will there be playing time for him? All of Mullins, Cowser, Hays and Santander will be getting regular ABs at OF/DH, with Hicks as the 5th OF and RH bat. If everyone is healthy, it comes down to (1) are O’Hearn and/or Mountcastle hitting and (2) can Santander or Kjerstad play 1B. On (1), there’s a spot for Mountcastle to be a RH platoon bat in any case, but O’Hearn may not warrant losing his ABs vs RHP. On (2), I think we are going to need to see a lot more of Santander or Kjerstad at 1B to determine whether that is viable. Right now seems like Santander is very comfortable there but Kjerstad is not. Unless there are trades, all of these guys except Hicks are under control next year as well, but Santander will be in his last year before FA. Even if he’s ready, we may see Kjerstad hanging around in AAA until this time next year if trades/injuries don’t open up an opportunity for him.

If we are aiming higher than rentals, the Pirates started off hot this year but are well out of contention now. Mitch Keller and David Bednar are great targets just entering their arbitration years, with Keller a FA after 2025 and Bednar after 2026. IMO the Orioles can only part with either Westburg or Ortiz amongst their blue chip prospects, there just won’t be space on the IF once Holliday arrives. Cowser, Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad are all integral parts of the future. They’ll need much more than Westburg or Ortiz to land a package of both Keller and Bednar, and probably more for even just one of them. A rental is probably the wiser option.

The article quote is about how all of the Orioles’ top prospects improved their projections from preseason 2022 through June 2022, except Bradish, who did have a rough start to the 2022 season. I wasn’t talking about Bradish this season. I brought it up because we are now on two consecutive years of nearly universal improvement across all of our top prospects, including Cowser.

I’ll also add that by September, if O’Hearn turns into a pumpkin, our best lineup may be with Santander at 1B and Kjerstad DHing. But I don’t see that happening until Kjerstad gets more time at AAA and likely not until rosters expand / Kjerstad retains rookie status for next year. Whatever the case, something has gotta give with Ortiz by the trade deadline at the latest. He needs MLB at bats and if the Orioles think he’s potentially part of the future they need to give him an opportunity before Holliday is knocking on the door. The best IF alignment for the Orioles now and for the future is with Henderson, Westburg and Ortiz all starting.

It’s now two years in a row. From a Fangraphs article a year ago at this time: Of the top 15 O’s prospects in our preseason rankings, only a single player, Kyle Bradish, has seen his career WAR projection go down in ZiPS. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-orioles-arent-good-but-they-are-interesting/ And Bradish of course rebounded after a rough start to the season, and I think all of the other top 15 prospects finished strong last year. I’d love to see the same comparison this year. The only notable top prospects that have seen their stock drop are Grayson, Norby and Hall, and possibly Beavers. Grayson is also showing signs of righting the ship. Stowers and Vavra have also had bad seasons, but injuries are part of that (as with Hall) and there doesn’t look to be a space for them now anyway. Every other prospect has either improved or remained on course this year, including some huge seasons from Holliday, Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo and Fabian in particular.

Yelich and Yoshida are very interesting comps. A high GB rate can work if the balls put in the air are hit with authority, and by Cowser’s exit velos it seems like that’s the type of hitter he could be. It helps that he’s left handed and has at least decent speed. Together with his plate discipline he has a great foundation for being a very high OBP player.

Looking back through the Statcast for Grayson’s AAA starts since being sent down and they’ve clearly tinkered with his cutter and slider. It looks like they’ve now combined them into a single pitch that is somewhere between the two - higher velo than the slider and lower velo than the cutter. The cutter was getting hammered by major league hitters and he didn’t have much consistency with the slider so this can only be an improvement IMO. He’s also been throwing a ton of changeups, which is a great sign. By far his best off speed. If he can command the change, he really only needs the curve as an occasional change of pace and the slider/cutter to help against RH hitters.

Statcast is now updated to 27 (!!) whiffs. The additional 15 are on unidentified pitches, so something is wonky with the tracking. I saw it when it said 12 previously as well but I think it’s going to be 27 when it’s cleaned up. Tremendous performance.

I was just using the FV system not trying to mirror Fangraphs, but yeah Fangraphs was out in front on Mayo. They were also way too low on Cowser and Westburg IMO, but a lot of that is still dependent on how their defense ends up. Very reasonable to have Cowser ahead of Mayo for the reasons you said, I just think Mayo’s immense upside slots him higher. Cowser is definitely higher floor. Holliday is untouchable and for me, Mayo would only be considered for the type of elite player with multiple years of control that never actually hits the market. Cowser and Kjerstad don’t reach that level IMO, but where the Orioles are with Mullins, Hays and Santander all in their arb years, I don’t envision any trade where it makes sense to move them. Fabian might be there too for the same reason.

1. Holliday 65 FV 2. Mayo 60 FV 3. Cowser 55 FV 4. Kjerstad 55 FV 5. Westburg 50 FV 6. Ortiz 50 FV 7. Basallo 45+ FV 8. Fabian 45+ FV 9. Povich 45 FV 10. Norby 40+ FV 11. Hall 40+ FV 12. McDermott 40+ FV 13. Johnson 40+ FV Using FV to tier them (same way that Fangraphs/others rank), I think that helps add more context. Holliday and Mayo are in tiers of their own, respectively. Cowser and Kjerstad are very close, with Westburg and Ortiz similarly close in the tier below. Interesting parallels with those 4, as it’s a trade off between power (Kjerstad and Westburg) vs. defense (Cowser and Ortiz). Beyond that, Basallo and Fabian are big risers with huge offensive potential paired with potential premium defensive positions. Their upside is a cut above the rest of the list. Below them, I think Povich still has SP potential, placing him above Hall, McDermott and Johnson all profiling as potentially elite relievers. Norby is still hanging on but he’s definitely lost some ground this year with the drop in power. He can probably be around a league average hitter, but if he’s not bringing any defensive value it’s hard to see a place for him in a MLB roster. I think everybody beyond this is in the 40 FV tier. The next group is probably some combination of Prieto, Beavers, Wagner, Willems and Haskin.

It’s interesting to see how much Mayo’s breakout in AA is garnering less attention compared to Gunnar’s last season. There’s clear reasons: 1) obviously massive difference in defensive ability; 2) Gunnar’s swing decisions became elite (K rate 18.3% to BB rate 19.7%); and 3) much of Mayo’s performance is driven by a ludicrous June, meaning he is just starting to get more attention. However, Mayo is 6 months younger than Gunnar (so only 6 months older than Gunnar was at the start of last year) and he is far outpacing Gunnar in hitting for power. Mayo’s AA ISO is now up to .318 compared to .261 for Gunnar in AA last year. With K/BB rates that are still very good (if not Gunnar elite levels), he’s actually ahead of Gunnar’s AA wRC+ last year by 181 to 176. At this time last year the Orioles had already pushed Gunnar to AAA. Mayo has over 100 more AA PA this year than Gunnar did last year and he really needs to move up. The defensive concerns are legitimate and there’s a question mark on the contact ability so he’s not about to break into the conversation for #1 prospect in baseball like Gunnar did last year at this time, but the elite power and overall offensive performance in AA at 21 should definitely have him pushing for consideration to be in the tier just below that.

Both Kjerstad and Mayo could be integral with Santander, Hays and Mountcastle in their coming arb seasons (and Mountcastle’s struggles this year). With the glut of IF and core up the middle players, the biggest vulnerability amongst the position players is the corner bats. Kjerstad and Mayo are the only prospects in the system that profile to be impact, middle of the order hitters that can provide surplus value at 1B/COF/DH. Maybe Westburg fits the bill, but I’m not sure there’s enough bat there so carry him as an above average player if he’s not bringing 2B/3B defensive value We are certainly due for a trade of IF to relieve some of the logjam there, and need higher level SP and probably another bat right now, but I really hope they hang onto both Kjerstad and Mayo when making that deal because there’s a clear path available for them on the major league roster starting in 2024-25.

Dominant start today and now 44 K / 10 BB in 26.2 IP. If he keeps it up, how many starts before he’s bumped up to AAA? Could he potentially debut later this year if they send him to AAA soon and he continues doing well? He threw 114 IP last year so he’s not likely to have a significant innings limit this year.

DH James McCann. What a joke. Even with his splits, he has no business being in a MLB lineup when he’s not catching. Embarrassing.

I disagree with this decision but I can see why it was made. There are really only semi-regular ABs right now for Vavra or Stowers - they are using Vavra exclusively as an OF/DH, and seem to want to be able to use Gunnar and Urias at DH with some frequency so that Urias/Frazier/Mateo all get consistent playing time. I’d rather see Stowers in the lineup than any of those 3 (or Vavra), but it seems that’s the direction they are going. The advantage of the 3rd catcher is that you can DH Adley and pinch hit for McCann without needing to move Adley back to catcher. I think that has more benefit to give Adley the full days off from catching than getting Stowers 6 PAs in 8 games like he’s had. Stowers should be a regular in the lineup rather than playing all 4 IFs and Vavra regularly, but Stowers is better served playing regularly in AAA rather than rotting away on the bench and the small marginal benefit of the 3rd catcher is probably worthwhile. However, if they decide they are going to start McCann at DH/1B more regularly than just whatever minimum rest days Adley needs, as some of those concerning reports indicated when he was acquired, this is going to be truly appalling mismanagement.

They explained it in one of the articles as projections were coming out this year but I can’t for the life of me locate it again. I believe the answer is that they can’t predict injuries - historical durability is factored into playing time projections, but those are generally small differences. There will always be some amount of major injuries over the course of the season. So all the players in the league project to accrue more WAR than they will in actuality, because some amount of that WAR will be lost due to injuries and they can’t predict the specific players where that will come from.

The rankings of all the teams based on the depth charts are here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2 The depth charts project all of the teams across the league to have more fWAR than will actually accrue in a season, so you can’t just add the depth charts fWAR to the replacement level and get the projected record. The Orioles are in the bottom half of the depth charts, which is why they come out to below .500.

Seth Johnson and John Means will be moved to the 60-day IL so they will have 40-man spots available for the bench. There aren’t any pitchers in contention to need one.

Cordero has a split contract that pays him more at the MLB level than in AAA. I believe many of those have a built in opt out where the player would need to accept the minor league assignment (and they might, depending on spring training performance and how much they would be paid). Cordero has hit well enough in spring training and the Orioles will have so many similar players in AAA that I think he’s likely to use the opt out, assuming he has one. Mazara has an opt out but I don’t think the Orioles care if he uses it - they’ll likely only have room for one of him and Neustrom and neither has much upside. O’Hearn and Diaz I believe do not have opt outs and are likely to be kept as AAA depth. Lester I’m not sure about, but I would guess no opt out there. So I think Cordero is the most likely to stick initially if they are intrigued by his upside. Vavra’s future with the Orioles is as a utility man but he doesn’t actually have experience playing 1B and 3B in the minors. I think he needs that before he slides into that role. Giving him regular AAA ABs for a few months also provides some potential that another team could see him as a possible starter, if he hits very well and they are higher on his 2B defense than the Orioles are. If by June or so that hasn’t happened, then he’ll have plenty of AAA at bats and enough time covering other positions to slide into his role as the 26th man utility guy.

Vavra is probably a better hitter than all of the huge number of LH AAA guys brought in to compete for the backup 1B job. They clearly don’t believe in his defense at 2B to be a starter there, and we have so many prospects that his future with this organization is as a utility guy. He’s the best option right now as the 26th man, but I think it makes sense to get him some regular at bats at AAA (he still doesn’t have a ton of AAA/MLB plate appearances) and more experience moving between 3B/1B (in addition to continuing his prior experience at 2B/LF). If he hits really well, taps into more power like he’s shown at AA and below (and in Spring Training), and/or shows some improvement in 2B defense, he could force his way to a more prominent MLB role or become a decent trade chip. If not, maybe he rides the Norfolk shuttle or settles in as the seldom used 26th man.

Bench: Urias/Mateo, McCann, McKenna, Cordero (but could definitely be Vavra over Cordero) Bullpen: Bautista, Baker, Perez, Akin, Voth, Politi, Khrebiel, Hall (until stretched out to SP innings; having him on OD roster keeps him eligible for ROY draft comp) Givens on the IL, if he is healthy then Khrebiel is optioned. Wells and Watkins remained stretched out as SP depth at AAA. Wells get an extra year of service time back by staying down a couple weeks; he’ll be back on the MLB roster as a SP or RP in some capacity depending on need and what they think of his future chances as a SP. Baumann probably the next man up for the pen, but he could still use more time getting used to the short RP role and I think they defer to Khrebiel initially based on his role last year.

Irvin’s got a lot of great qualities, he’s the perfect mold to eat up a ton of innings and take advantage of the defense and LF wall. He’ll definitely be a fun pitcher to watch for the reasons you said. He’s been working on his breaking balls this spring, he hasn’t been getting more K’s so far but if the Orioles can unlock a little more swing and miss in his game he could be very valuable.

He had a 86 wRC+ in 186 PA in high A last year. Nothing in his performance at that level indicated that he was forcing a promotion to AA. It was his AFL and spring training performance that did that, that’s my point. He’s come a long way in a short period of time.

His stock is up tremendously right now. But remember he struggled some at high A last year - before the AFL and Spring Training, it would have been a bit of a jump to even start him at AA this year. Sometime between the end of last year and the AFL, things really started to come together for him. Not only is the power fully back, but his biggest question as a prospect was how his hit tool would translate and that is looking quite good against the spring training competition. He’ll start at AA but with the expectation he’ll abuse some poor pitchers, perhaps for only a month or so before finding himself at AAA. I agree with what Frobby said about his speed - he definitely does not look like a plodder out there. He’s very powerfully built in his lower half now and not carrying any extra weight. Scouting reports are that his arm and instincts in the OF are pretty good, so he should be at least passable out there, and potentially an asset.

They will need a 5th starter by April 6 - there are 5 consecutive games from April 1-5. Gibson could go on Opening Day and then either April 5 @ Texas or April 6 at home v. Yankees. Grayson will pitch the other game. With Hall pitching today, if they have him on a SP schedule he’s lined up to pitch again Sat April 25, and then again either Opening Day March 30 (or extra rest game 2 April 1). That would line him up to next piggyback Grayson’s start on April 5/6.