Sydnor

I know what Baseball Savant is, but thanks for the screenshot. The way Holliday has been deployed so far, it appears he is starting at 2nd on opening day. He is not blocked by anyone. Mayo is not blocked by Mateo. How many plate appearances do you think Mateo will get this year? I would guess that unless he plays like he did last April, he will get between 125 and 200. Would you be comfortable with Mayo getting 125 to 200 plate appearances in the big leagues or would you want him playing everyday at Norfolk? You’ll find no bigger fan of Coby Mayo than me. I don’t want him in that role. If you tell me that Mayo is going to start at 3rd, Holliday at 2nd, and that Westburg moves to a utility role, with Urias inheriting the 26th man on the roster role, that is fine. I’m not sure Urias’ skill set makes sense in the 26th man on the roster role, but I’d be fine with it. The point is, he is not blocking anyone because he is playing a very small role on the team this year.

@forphase1 Given that my post appears to have confused you, please explain to me who Mateo is blocking as the 2nd utility infielder, fifth outfielder, and pinch runner?

Nobody, but you’re bringing facts to an argument based on emotion.

I know this question was not directed to me, but I saw Mayo play around 8-10 games in Norfolk last year when I was in VAB. I have been consistently impressed by his lateral movement. He obviously has a cannon, and his throws were accurate (I saw Diaz pick a couple of his throws, but he never airmailed him). I think the concerns over his defense are largely overblown. Coby is tremendously athletic. Will his height and getting down on the ball be an issue in the future? maybe, but I haven’t seen it. I truly believe he could start the year with the Orioles and play average to slightly above average defense based on what I saw in Norfolk. If Mayo has continued to improve with off-season work, I think above average defense is possible. I don’t think that it is a foregone conclusion that Westburg will be a better defensive third baseman than Mayo long term.

With respect to Hays, as @Frobby pointed out, Hays was a very highly rated prospect: Hays was ranked the no. 21 prospect in MLB by BA, no. 23 by MLB.com, and no. 72 by BP. With respect to Santander, it’s hard to even gauge whether he could’ve become a highly ranked prospect because his development was so disrupted by being a Rule 5 pick who had to accrue sufficient service time to remain in the organization. If he stays in the Cleveland organization and on a normal developmental track and puts up similar numbers to what he did in the Carolina league, who knows what happens. When Santander was 24 he had spent too much time in the majors to be ranked on a prospect list. I hope the upcoming outfielders are successful, but assuming they will better than the current group based on their pedigree is not an assumption I would make.

That would be a great outcome. I am not trying to be down on Bradfield. I just see a lot posters (not you) penciling Bradfield in to replace Mullins in 2026, and throwing around Lofton type comps, or saying he should be able to OPS in excess of .750 without any problem. I hope all of that is true, and I’m not trying to be a contrarian or down on him, but it’s more likely Bradfield turns into Myles Straw than Lofton or Butler. At age 22 (Bradfield’s age), Straw had a .295/.412./.373 (131 wRC+) slash line in A+. At age 23, Straw had a .327/.414/.390 (129 wRC+) slash line in AA (before being promoted to AAA and receiving a cup of coffee in the majors). I’ll be interested in seeing how Bradfield performs this year. He is an easy player to root for, and I hope he is great. I am just generally skeptical of players with his profile. It’s fun to dream, but when Lofton comps get thrown around and people start talking about 4 to 6 win seasons, I think that it is unrealistic to expect that sort of an outcome.

Kenny Lofton had a career .372 OBP and a career .423 SLG for a career .794 OPS. In his career, he accumulated 68.4 rWAR/62.4 fWAR. His 68.4 rWAR is the same as Carlton Fisk, Edgar Martinez, and Pee Wee Reese. It is more than Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar, Ernie Banks, and numerous other hall of famers. Lofton had seasons where he accumulated 5.5 rWAR or more 5 times in his career (he accumulate 5.5 fWAR or more 3 times). I hope Bradfield is a good player, but I’m not comparing him to Kenny Lofton who should arguably be in the Hall of Fame. That would be a 100th percentile outcome for Bradfield.

Honestly, I think Elias is pretty forthcoming. He has told people what he is planning on doing whether it was that he wanted to build up the Latin American program, that he wanted to rebuild the farm, that he didn’t think there was a probability of making the playoffs when he traded Mancini and Lopez, that he didn’t see the strategy to trading Santander last off-season, that he wanted to acquire pitching at the deadline, that he wanted a front of the rotation starter this off-season, etc. He mixes in some GM speak, but if they asked questions about roster makeup, etc. I’m certain he would’ve provided some insight aside from Corbin Burnes is good!

When I saw Mayo in Norfolk last summer, I thought he moved well laterally. I saw him make a few inconsistent throws, but nothing that concerned me. I think he could play third on spending day and be average or better. I am not going to speculate on what the best future infield alignment will be, but I strongly believe that Mayo can effectively play third base in the major leagues. I feel like people that think he needs to move off the position to RF or first have never seen him play (again he may move off first because there is a better future alignment, but IMO it will not be because Mayo is below average).

I suspect you know this, but for those that don’t, Bleier signed with the Nats.

I like Kiley a lot. I have met him and he is a nice guy and has his own opinions. My take is that because he was a late riser and not the top guy in his class. Kiley wants to see him improve his pitch selection and/or continue to make solid contact on pitches that he is able to get to outside of the zone. I’d guess he also questions whether he will get away with swinging at those pitches when they are thrown by major leaguers, and might think that without improving his pitch selection, he will have more weak contact and swing and miss at the major league level. I haven’t seen Basallo live yet (I hope he reaches Norfolk this year), but I obviously love what I have seen on video and think he should be rated higher given his age and production. That being said, I could see why someone like Kiley might want to see more from Basallo before he ranks him even more aggressively than 27th in all of baseball.

This is what he said about Basallo: Type: Lefty-hitting teenaged catcher with 30+ homer upside and polish in other areas Basallo was a notable, late-rising prospect in the 2021 international class, getting $1.3 million due to his big left-handed power and the tools to imagine he could become a long-term catcher if he didn't eventually physically outgrow the position. In 2023, he made his full-season debut as an 18-year-old and made it all the way to Double-A, smashing expectations by hitting .313 with 20 homers while his domestic counterparts were facing high school competition. He has 30-plus homer upside, playable bat control and currently below-average but playable pitch selection, which is impressive given his age vs. competition level. All the components are here for a special hitter, but he's near the bottom of the scale as a runner with varying takes on what kind of catcher he might be -- with first base being the alternative. That said, he has a plus-plus arm, helping him catch 46 of 139 base stealers (33%) in 2023, so in a robo ump future, the bar for defensive ability is pretty low if he can limit the running game.

1. Jackson Holliday 19. Coby Mayo 27. Samuel Basallo 48. Heston Kjerstad 50. Colton Cowser 91. Joey Ortiz 94. Enrique Bradfield Jr. https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39420988/top-100-mlb-prospects-list-2024-kiley-mcdaniel-jackson-holliday-jackson-chourio

Ortiz has an OPS over .900 in over 500 plate appearances at AAA. Offensively, he was 21% better than league average last year (Westburg was 31% better than league average). He was 54% better than league average in 2022 (Westburg was 29% better than league average). He is largely regarded as the best defensive infielder in the organization. Maybe he’s not running circles around the competition, but I’m not sure how much more he can improve in Norfolk in his age 25 season. His development has reached the point where it needs to continue in the majors. He might outperform Westburg if given the opportunity. If he isn’t playing in Baltimore I hope they trade him so he has the opportunity to do so.

German also slapped his wife at a team event: In September 2019, Germán and his girlfriend attended a charity gala held by then-teammate CC Sabathia. Many of Germán’s 2019 teammates were also there with their families. Germán slapped his girlfriend at the event, sources said, but the MLB investigation focused primarily on what happened at his home later that night. According to multiple league sources, including a person with knowledge of the MLB investigation, Germán was intoxicated and became physically violent toward his girlfriend until she hid in a locked room. The victim is said to have contacted the wife of another Yankees player, and the couple drove to Germán’s home late at night. The victim remained with the teammate’s wife, while the player attempted to calm down Germán, who is said to have been angry and belligerent. https://theathletic.com/4223433/2021/02/21/new-details-emerge-in-yankees-domingo-germans-domestic-violence-incident/#comment-14259377

https://www.mlb.com/video/felix-bautista-in-play-out-s-to-whit-merrifield-936th8

Hanser with Hyde: Felix with Nelson and Vlad:

Me too. His FIP has been under 4 every season.