Tryptamine

Just a mention, not that Stroman's been pitching at all well in the last month anyway, but if the Cubs take 3 of 4 or maybe even 2-2 against the Cardinals, I'd be very surprised if they sold. After 5 straight wins they've got themselves a more reasonable 6 back in the division and 4.5 back in the wildcard with one of the easiest 2nd half schedules in baseball to go.

I don't mean this as a shot at the team, but the Orioles can't really afford to just do nothing at the deadline. They've given no indication that they're going to significantly raise payroll so you only have so many years of these guys on the cheap before they start hitting arbitration. They don't have to chase the best of the best, but they have no excuses at all not to find pieces that make them better.

Comparatively, remember that last year for David Robertson the Cubs got Ben Brown who is a back end of the top 100 prospect. I'd be surprised if Povich was the leading piece for Hader.

The price tag is going to be significantly higher

I think a lot of people are overvaluing Hall based on rankings of the past.

I've been registered here since 2009 and people are still just finding this out.

The market really has the possibility to shrink over the next few days. If the angels keep winning then Ohtani is out. If the Cubs keep winning Stroman and Bellinger are out. ESPN has already reported that the Padres are likely keeping Snell and Hader. That basically takes the pitchers who are significant upgrades down to 3. Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito and Jordan Montgomery and with only 3 pitchers on the market the price is going to go up. If I were an Oriole fan I'd be hoping the Angels, Padres and Cubs start losing asap if for nothing else but to have more options on the market.

It's kind of funny actually, how big the variances are Orioles +49 62-38 Cubs +41 48-51

I'd say the the most important realization of modern statistics is that no one stat on its own is ever reliable. You always need to look at various underlying statistics to support the validity of it. fWAR by itself is a nice, kind of all in one number, but it's not predictive and it's highly variable so, while it's the best we have, even it is not a great all encompassing stat. For me, when I'm looking at a hitter I check a few things SOFT% MED% HARD% LD% FB% GB% PULL% Cent% OPPO% 0-SWING% Z-SWING% Exit Velocity Avg Exit Velocity Max ETC, etc. It's not enough to just look at babip any more, just like we learned that it's not enough to looking at batting average in the decade before it. People may look at a .250 babip and assume that a batter was unlucky, but if they hit an extreme amount of flyballs, it's only natural they would carry a lower babip than a player who hits more LDs. So .250 may actually be a reasonable expectation for that hitter.

I wont deny his batted ball data doesn't match the stats, but it's also because he has drastically cut down on his swing with 2 strikes. He isn't exclusively swing for hard contact now, which is why his K% is down significantly.

Cleveland is pretty similar to the Rays, they don't really spend and they depend on their prospects. Unlike the Rays, or Orioles, they don't have a the type of farm where losing several top 10 guys isn't a huge deal.

Doesn't help with the lack of power and the Cubs already have that same guy in Nick Madrigal.

Which is kind of sad because he and Ohtani were 1A and 1B coming out of high-school

In order of priority 1B/3B > SP 2B, SS, RF and LF are locked up on contracts. Mountcastle won't do anything for them as they have Mervis. They're also desperately looking for power because after Bellinger is gone, they don't have anyone who is going to reach 25 HR. SP is the strength of the farm.

ESPN says SD is keeping them

Not that this would get it done anyway, but the Cubs have a RF and LF signed long term with top 10 prospect in baseball Pete Crow-Armstrong basically ready for 2024 opening day. Stowers would have no place to play.

ESPN reporting SD will keep Snell and Hader. With the Cubs 2 or 3 wins from being buyers, the pitching market is now Rodriguez, Giolito and Montgomery and their price tags just went up.

And that is why you will never ever see me use that website.

I started lurking during the Brian Robert's rumors and now I just periodically check in, mostly during the trade deadline and in free agency. God, what was that like 10+ years ago.....

As of right now you're correct, but with 7 more games before the deadline, if they take 3 of their next 4, it's certainly a possibility.

Because I wasn't watching the game? It's not a conspiracy, a Cub fan was watching a Cub game and so I thought I'd relay it.

Too much prospect hugging. Opportunities to win aren't guaranteed year to year. That doesn't mean empty the farm, but you shouldn't be dumpster diving when you could acquire significant upgrades without touching your top 10.

A bit of an update, since I know both guys have been talked about on here ad nauseam. Jordan Montgomery is getting shelled today and Stroman is on the verge of not being on the trade market as the Cubs are getting close to playing themselves back into things.

Of course they don't have to, but sellers often offer to eat the remaining cost in order to increase the return.

This is pretty much universally agreed upon. How someone as clueless as him ever rose to the position of GM, I will never understand.