Tryptamine

This has become such a ridiculous sentiment over the last week. The guy turns down a contract and suddenly he only cares about himself. Lets ignore that the AAV of the contract was 29.3M(not even in the top 20 AAV amongst current contracts) and it would lock him up for 15 years so that there was basically zero chance he'd ever get another contract and that it was heavily backloaded, which if you know anything about the time value of money, makes the contract significantly less valuable. There's also the possibility that due to the Nationals MLB team being awful and the farm system being terrible too, that he just wants to be on a team that is competitive in the next like 4 or 5 years.

You guys are severely underestimating the package it would take for Soto. Remember that in the Miguel Cabrera trade the Tigers traded both Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin. Andrew Miller was the #7 prospect in baseball and Cameron Maybin was the #8. Badenhop was kind of a nothing and Rabelo/De La Cruz were just middling prospects. Even ignoring the the last 3, that was two top 10 prospects in the game. Also, as of now, Soto has been the better player. He currently sports a 152 wRC+ which is 9th in baseball. He's doing that with a .244 babip which is nearly .100 points below his usual babip. You would honestly be talking about something like Grayson+Gunnar and then another good, not great prospect.

He has a commitment, it would be 2 years

He's honestly completely awful at his job

No major slips now.

Collier almost has to be going back to school unless a team is willing to trash their entire draft for him

Collier and Parada in free fall

Unless they have an over slot agreement, terrible. Absolutely terrible.

2

If they believe his shoulder is healthy, he's absolutely worth the pick. The stuff is very good.

Not surprised, the fans pretty much hate the owners. Between the Ricketts crying poor while trying to throw billions of dollars to buy a soccer team, being just in general trash human beings and being in yet another rebuild, interest in the team is as low as it has been in quite a while.

He's a safe bet, as far as prospects go, to be a solid 3-4 fwar performer with outlier 5fwar seasons. That's extremely valuable. He just doesn't have star power some of the others have.

3.41 xERA, 3.56FIP, 3.74 xFIP, 3.73 SIERA. In other words, his underlying peripherals suggest he has been significantly better than his 4.66 ERA.

Green has the biggest ceiling and loudest tools no doubt, but he also has the biggest flaw amongst the top 3 and half those loud tools don't matter if you can't put the ball in play. I've been reading that his stock is sliding a bit and Collier is unlikely to make it out of the top 4 now. I see basically zero chance Lesko or Rocker slide out of the top 25, and most likely top 20, unless they've got a pre draft deal worked out and their agent is steering them to a specific team. Neto is a name I can definitely see going in the top 7 for teams looking to save. He's a guy that all the driveline types absolutely adore.

I don't think that's realistic at all honestly. I don't think you get Knack solo, let alone Beeter as well. You're talking about a guy who is tied at #201 among MLB hitters with 100 or more PAs for 2021 fWAR at .5. In 2021 he was tied for #301. Even if we focus solely, on his bat this year, which is the only valuable part of his game, his 110 wRC+ is tied for #124.

I don't think Santander has the value you guys think he does. .5 fWAR in 76 games this year is 1.1 fWAR pace over 162 games. He's put up 1.6fWAR over he last 3 years spanning 223 games. His LD% is down, his IFFB% has almost doubled, His Hard% is down and his Soft% is up, so the .249 babip isn't even really getting unlucky, it's just from bad contact.

It's very easy to understand. Unless you believe Johnson has a significantly better bat than Jones or Holliday, who both play positions at the top of the defensive spectrum, then you are not getting as much value. It's the same reason that you don't consider a 1B at 1.1 unless they are absolute monsters with the bat. Also, remember that Johnson is very young and already relegated to 2B in a draft where a huge amount of the players will be listed as SS and CFers but be immediately moved off that position once drafted. If he keeps falling down the defensive spectrum the bat needs to be better and better to justify the pick.

As an outsider, If I'm the GM I can't imagine taking anyone other than Holliday or Jones at 1.1. Parada is out because I don't take catchers that high unless they're generational talents. Termarr is out because even if his bat is 1.1 worthy, he's young and already profiling as a 2B. Green has amazing upside, but the risk is also far too extreme to take at 1.1. Lee is a really safe bet to be a productive major leaguer but I think his upside lacks in comparison to all the others and Collier doesn't have enough track record for me to take. Berry is just a super vanilla pick. The only scenario I could see underslotting at 1.1 being an option would be if you could snag someone like Lee/Johnson with a significant discount and use it to make a predraft agreement with someone like Lesko and have Lesko throw out the usual "don't draft me, I'm going back to school" stuff that players do to direct themselves to certain teams. On a side note, I'm really really hoping one of Johnson or Collier is there for the Cubs at 1.7.

Kikuchi. Velocity is there, stuff is there, a team with a good pitch lab is going to turn him into a strong #2/3.

With the enormous amount of available money, and that they and the Yankees are the most heavily involved for Correa, it makes sense.

Sounds like a decent chance Rodon and Kikuchi are coming off the market tonight.

They pretty much have to get a SS, and while I don't see them giving Correa 350M, there has been interest in Trevor Story. Add him, Conforto and Kikuchi and the Cubs are decent for '22, with a lot of money open for '23.

Two teams with super deep pockets. I'd call it 50/50 at best that either reach FA.

I truly truly hate that website, not because it tries to value players, but because so many people try to use it to justify trades that just have zero chance in the real world, but they insist it does because the numbers are similar. This is not directed at the poster above, it's just something I've seen dozens of times on various sites and it's always suggesting heavily lopsided deals.