Tryptamine

Bellinger was apparently offered longer deals by 3 teams including the Cubs. They were at lower AAV, but 5+ years. Bellinger chose to gamble on himself and take a shorter deal with opt outs so he could have a chance at a mega deal.

It would take a lot. At least one very high end prospect and a couple further down the list. He's under control for a long time and very cheap. '24=2.5M '25=4.5M '26=6M '27=10M(team option) '28= 10M(team option) '27 and '28 both have 2M buyouts

2025 club option for 9m that becomes a player option if Neris makes 60+ appearances in 2024.

If he was willing to do 1/8 he'd already be signed. What team wouldn't want a pen arm at that price coming of years with a 2.40 and 3.02 ERA? My guess is he's trying to get a 2nd year in the 2/24 range and teams are nervous because he'll be 39 around opening day.

I know this is the Cease thread, but I've seen Roberts name come up a few times and the people bringing him up are incredibly low on what it would take to get him. Luis Robert would take a package bigger than what San Diego gave up for Soto. We're taking like 3 to 4 top 100 guys, a couple of them in the top quarter and a helium guy besides. He's under contract 12.5M in '24, 15M in '25 and the WSox have options for him in '26 and '27 at 20M each. For a 26 year old, coming off a 5fWAR season that is way way below market price. He's basically not tradeable because no one is going to give up the required package it would take. Trying to get him and Cease would take a prospect package unlike one that has ever been seen as far as I can recall.

He didn't get 6 figures like the rumor suggested but it might end up being 5/80. The contract is rather complicated, but the gist of it is He's getting 2/30 over the first two years. After year 2, the Cubs have the option to lock him in for a 5th year for a total of 5/80. If they refuse, Imanaga has the right to elect free agency. If both the Cubs refuse and he refuses to exercise their options after year 2, they will get the same chance to exercise those options after year 3 again. So if Imanaga is good, it's 5/80, if he's bad, it's 4/53, if he's decent enough to elect for free agency but not good enough for the Cubs to want to give him the 5th year, he will either be a free agent after 2/30 or 3/46.5.

No, just no.

Ferris was a big get. He was my 2nd favorite Cub pitching prospect besides Horton. He's a lefty with size, velocity and 4 50+ grade pitches. If the Dodgers tighten up his control, he's going to be the most valuable piece in that trade from either side.

He put up a 1.049 OPS and a 150 wRC+ in AAA last year, so I think it's safe to say he has done all he can at the minors.

Yeah, Ferris was a big give up and a guy I had pegged for the top 100 in 2024. The second guy was Zyhir Hope who the Cubs over slotted in the most recent draft and has some ceiling to him, but Ferris was absolutely the big get for LAD. With that said, I do absolutely love Busch's bat and have for a few years now. He's headed to 1B or DH, but I have few doubts he's going to hit.

That "#4ish guy" has a 3.45 ERA since the start of 2021 a period spanning 454 1/3 IP. If Stroman is a #4, your staff is 90s Braves loaded.

The Dodgers did a few things. I was going to do a long stat filled post, but the short story is that Brasier's 4 seam fastball is awful(.389 wOBA in 2022). Even so, Boston had him using it more than any other pitch despite the fact that he actually had a dominant slider. When he went to LA, they drastically reduced how often he threw that 4 seam and incorporated a cutter which also became a dominant pitch. This gave him 2 dominant offerings and he could use the 4 seam to keep batters honest. So yes, the cutter was huge for him, but Boston used him entirely wrong as well. Correcting both of those things turned him into the dominant reliever that posted a .70 ERA and 2.48 FIP in his 38 2/3 innings with the Dodgers. He likely isn't sniffing that ERA again, but there's nothing to suggest that he isn't a guy who could post a sub 3.00 ERA again which is why there's so many teams in on him.

I'm not going to claim Chicago doesn't still have significant issues, but it has had a declining crime rate for 2 years straight and is slowly improving. I suppose we'll see how much that huge infusion of cash into community programs on the southside help things over the next decade. Comparatively on a per capita per 100K people you have Murder: (national rank) Chicago: 18.26(14th) Baltimore: 55.7(2nd) Rape: Chicago: 65.11(35th) Baltimore: 62.29(40th) Robbery(Violent): Chicago: 439.26(8th) Baltimore: 958.71(1st) Aggravated Assault: Chicago: 570.36(21st) Baltimore: 950.23(7th) With that said, the true hell hole is St. Louis 1st in murders, 15th in rape, 4th in robbery(Violent), 3rd in aggravated assault

See, I managed to linger here for like a decade now without causing a war between our individual fandoms.

Try being a Cub fan this offseason. The only team in MLB not to add anyone to their mlb roster via FA/Trade.

So they can defer it slightly, but not significantly as is shown here where even with 400M in deferred the AAV is absolutely huge. So even in the craziest scenarios involving deferrals, I can't fathom it dropping below 50-55M

I know Passan said this, but that isn't how the salary cap works. The salary cap is whatever the per year average is over the length of the contract, not what they were actually paid that year. So it doesn't matter if it's 10M the first 5 years and 130M the next 5. The annual hit is 70M per year.

Happy for you guys that tidbit from a month or so turned out to be true. Now maybe you'll get an owner who is willing to take you from contender to favorite.

That was kind of my point. 1000 people out there claiming to be in the know, when none of them actually know much of anything, the better known guys included.

Baseball trade values has it as a significant underpay actually and while I know it's a website to be taken with a grain of salt, it is by no means "way, way, WAY, WAYYYYYYYYYYYYY too much".

No one has any idea what's going on. Two tweets with completely different messages at roughly the same time.

Where are we pulling this 50% chance to ever pitch again nonsense from? Think about it like this. An ace pitcher will cost you 25+M a year, a truly elite hitter will cost your 25+M a year. Ohtani is both of those and only takes one roster spot. So 50M annually is completely reasonable.

He played 141 games last year. That's a completely reasonable amount.

Nah they spelled it wrong, I typed it right for when I was typing and left his misspelling in the quote so it was an actual quote.

Speaking of Carlyle stock, and this is just me reading the tea leaves, the stock is up over 6% today. Granted the entire market is having a huge day based off the inflation reports, but it's something to watch.